Get started

Fxtrading

Weekend Russia-Ukraine Update for Natural Gas Traders in FX MarkHey everyone, I wanted to share some important updates with you regarding recent developments that could significantly impact our natural gas trades. In the past few days, Ukraine's attack on the Sudzha gas transfer station in Russia's Kursk region has raised some serious concerns. As you know, the Sudzha station is a critical point for gas flow from Russia to Europe, and any disruption here could directly affect our natural gas trading. It's something we all need to keep a close eye on. To give you some context, Gazprom supplied approximately 14.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas through Sudzha in 2023. This volume accounts for about 4.5% of the EU's annual consumption and nearly half of all Russian gas exports to Europe. Since the beginning of the year, the daily gas flow through this station has remained above 40 million cubic meters. These numbers highlight just how vital Sudzha is for European gas supply. The main function of the Sudzha gas metering station is to record gas consumption and measure the quality indicators of the gas. The gas flow is measured using two primary methods: variable pressure drop and the more precise ultrasonic method, which measures the propagation speed of ultrasonic waves in the gas flow. The station is equipped with converters, pressure and temperature sensors, shut-off valves, and other equipment essential for accurate gas flow measurement. In addition, the station features an automated control system that collects, processes, and transmits data on gas parameters. This system is responsible for overseeing the operation process and maintaining accurate records. If there’s an issue at the station, not only would the gas flow be disrupted, but tracking the quality and quantity of the gas would also become much more difficult. Given these details, it’s crucial for us to closely monitor what's happening in the gas markets and adjust our strategies accordingly. As uncertainty increases, so do the potential risks and opportunities, so I strongly advise you to carefully set your stops in your trades. Wishing you all a profitable week ahead! CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS FOREXCOM:NATURALGAS
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by TheCryptoPharaoh
4
BOJ capitulates spectacularly Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), says the bank won’t hike interest rates when markets are unstable, delivering a clear message on what traders need to do to prevent them doing so again: create volatility. It’s an amazing statement, signalling the BOJ can and will be bullied by markets to avoid doing what is right for the Japanese economy. It’s an incredibly dovish admission, giving traders the green light to re-establish carry trades until the BOJ starts making noise about hiking rates again, or we see a major global economic downturn. The Yen is tumbling understandably. Adding to the dovish surprise, Uchida said the BOJ must maintain the degree of monetary easing for now and suggested the BOJ would not be behind the curve if it didn’t usher through rate hikes “at pace”. It’s a capitulation of the grandest scale, undoubtedly orchestrated to restore calm to financial markets. It was only just over a week ago the BPOJ hiked more than expected and provided a hawkish outlook on the monetary policy outlook. USD/JPY surges as carry trades established USD/JPY has surged back above resistance at 146.50 on Uchida’s remarks, putting a potential retest of the January 2023 uptrend in play. The formation is also yet to be completed, but the three-candle pattern looks like a morning star, adding to confidence that we may have seen the cyclical bottom. Should the price manage to remain above 146.50, consider buying with a stop below the level for protection. The intersection of the former uptrend and horizontal resistance at 148.80 is one potential trade target. Should that go, 149.70, 150.90 and 151.95 are the next upside levels of note. The downtrend in RSI (14) has been broken, signalling downside momentum may be ebbing. It has yet to be confirmed by MACD but looks trustworthy given the speed of the rebound. It’s not just bottoming patterns being seen in USD/JPY but also other pairs such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. -- Written by David Scutt
Long
by WHSelfInvest
AUD/USD squeeze risk growing?With tentative signs of stablisation in commodity futures and US equity index futures pushing higher in early Asian trade, the prospects for some form of squeeze higher in AUD/USD appear to be growing. You can see just how violent the selloff has been over the past two weeks, leaving it oversold on RSI (14) for the first time since August 2023. But the modest reversal on Thursday after breaking the 61.8% Fib retracement of the April-July low-high is about the closest thing to a bullish signal we’ve seen for the AUD/USD in a while. It’s tempting to go long with a stop below the fib level for protection, but it would be nice to see RSI break its downtrend first to provide confidence that the bearish price momentum is ebbing. Given the acute focus on China, the reaction to the PBOC’s CNY fix in FX markets, and opening of Chinese stock futures, may provide a strong tell on where the near-term path of least resistance lies. If they open firmer, it may increase the probability of AUD/USD upside. AUD/USD a proxy for risk appetite The chart also shows the rolling 10-day correlation between AUD/USD with COMEX copper in orange, crude oil in black, S&P 500 in green and Nasdaq 100 futures in blue. Every single correlation sits north of 0.8 with three of the four hovering around 0.9 or higher. The higher the score, the greater the relationship between the two variables. Taking a step back, the strong correlations suggest AUD/USD is being used as proxy for risk sentiment, a role it has often played previously when we’ve seen boarder risk-on-risk-off moves in markets. That means if we see even a modest improvement in risk appetite, as seen on Thursday when the latest batch of US economic data suggested premonitions of an imminent recession may be misplaced, the AUD/USD could find buyers. The price action in commodity futures is another potential sign that the worst of the rout is over, at least for the moment.
Long
by WHSelfInvest