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GBPUSD Pullback From NFP HighHi Traders! GBPUSD looks to have formed a range zone as it has tested the NFP high at 1.27712 and has failed to break above the high. Here are the details: After the NFP release, there was a strong bull rally to the 1.27712 level, but it was quickly rejected, as you can see with the large upside price wick. The market recently tested this level, and the resistance is still there. We are looking for the market to pullback towards areas around 1.26734, and below that, we have range zone support at 1.26116. Preferred Direction: Sell Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 1.27712 Support: 1.26116 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
EURUSD Downside ContinuesHi Traders! EURUSD looks to be continuing to the downside, and there is potential for a support price break. Here are the details: The market continues to swing lower with lower highs and lower lows; the price has also broken below the 20 EMA recently. We are looking for the market to remain below the 20 EMA to continue downwards towards the support area. Should the market reach the support area, there may be some demand there as the market will not have been that low in a month. If there is a break below the support area, then the target level is 1.08300. Preferred Direction: Sell Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 1.09547 Support Area: 1.08929–1.08700 Target Level: 1.08300 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
Euro to propel on relapsing EU inflation & US jobs dataFighting inflation is hard. Hence, central banks are data dependent while calibrating rates. Continuing geopolitical conflicts puts Europe at risk of inflation relapse. Headline numbers can be misleading. Central bankers will dig deep. Deeper analysis will compel investors and policy makers to rethink and recalibrate interest rate calculus. This paper unpacks US jobs & Euro area inflation report, and market expectations of rates ahead. UNPACKING US NON-FARM PAYROLL DATA The US labour market added 216k jobs in December 2023 surpassing expectations. It was up 25% month-on-month. Headline numbers look healthy. Details spell trouble. Payroll data was revised lower by 71k for October and November. Average work week contracted, and participation rate declined. Jobs growth is concentrated in three sectors, namely, Government, Education/healthcare, and Leisure/Hospitality. Eighty percent of the jobs added are from sectors that are not considered growth engines. Three key takeaways from jobs report: 1. Employment growth remains robust: Month-on-Month employment trends point to jobs growth in government, leisure and hospitality, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. On a 12-month seasonally adjusted basis, apart from (a) Transportation & Warehousing and (b) Information, rest of the sectors added jobs. Source: BLS 2. Hourly Wage Earnings growth is strong: In December, average hourly earnings on private payrolls jumped by fifteen cents, or 0.4%, to USD 34.27/hour. Average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1% over the last year. Source: BLS 3. Unemployment Remains Unchanged: Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% (3.5% last year this time) with number of unemployed persons unchanged at 6.3 million (5.7 million last year this time). COMPREHENDING EUROZONE INFLATION NUMBERS Euro area inflation rose 2.9% YoY in December 2023, reversing a two-year low (2.4%) observed in November. Eurostat inflation estimates was marginally below the market consensus of 3%. Inflation uptick since April 2023 was primarily due to energy-related base effects. Energy prices declined 6.7% while services inflation was flat. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, softened to 3.4%. Core inflation is at its lowest point since March 2022. MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF RATE CUTS Investors are betting that the US Fed and the ECB will cut rates six times this year. First rate cut is expected in March or April. Market expectations are in sharp contrast to policymakers. The US Fed expects to make three quarter-point cuts this year. The ECB has stood its ground arguing that the inflation fight is not over yet. Amid strong economic data, probability of Fed rate cuts in March has fallen from 100% to 70%. Source: CME Fedwatch Tool EUR-USD WITNESSED WILD MOVES ON INFLATION, JOBS, AND SERVICES DATA BUT SETTLED WHERE IT OPENED Last Friday news flow impacting FX rates were strong. Front month EUR-USD futures traded wildly opening at 1.0977 reaching a high of 1.1030 and then plunging to a low of 1.0908 before closing at 1.0977. December US ISM Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.6, the lowest reading in seven months, compared to 52.7 in November. Services industry is critical accounting for more than two-thirds of the US economy. Euro fell 0.5% last week, marking its largest weekly drop since early December breaking three consecutive weeks of strengthening. The EUR-USD is hovering at its support levels with the 50d DMA likely to print a golden cross with the 200d DMA. Near term technical signals point to strengthening of the Euro versus the US dollar. Momentum favours Euro while price reversion risk remains neutral. Diverging macroeconomic conditions leaves Eurozone exposed to higher risk of inflation relapse. The ECB is expected to be slower with rate cuts relative to the Fed. In anticipation, leveraged funds are starting to sharply reduce their net short positions in the CME EUR/USD futures. Source: CME QuikStrike HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Europe is at greater risk of inflation relapse on continuing geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine and the middle east. Energy and goods inflation relapse will force the ECB to defer its rate cuts. Size of the rate cuts, if any, is also likely to be smaller at the ECB relative to the Fed. This will strengthen the Euro against the USD in the near term. To harvest gains from a strengthening Euro, this paper posits a hypothetical long position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures expiring in March 2024 (M6EH2024) with an entry at 1.0979 combined with a target at 1.1123 and hedged by a stop at 1.0871, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.33x. Each lot of CME Micro Euro Futures contract provides exposure to 12,500 Euros. It is quoted in USD per Euro increment. Each pip i.e., 0.0001 per Euro delivers a P&L of USD 1.25. • Entry: 1.0979 • Target: 1.1123 • Stop: 1.0871 • Profit at Target (hypothetical): USD 180 (= 0.0144; 144 pips; 144 x 1.25 = 180) • Loss at Stop (hypothetical): USD 135 (= -0.0108; -108 pips; -108 x 1.25 = -135) • Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.33x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Long
by mintdotfinance
💹 EURUSD next week prevision 💹It could go down to points of 1.08773. If it brakes this floor it could go to areas of 1.08102. If it fails to brake the minimum of 1.08773, it could enter an uptrend to look for movement 3 of the Elliot wave until 1.10016 minimum (100% fibo point of the previous inverse wave), being able to continue rising until the point 1.1039. (127% fibo point), to continue with a retracement of the elliot wave movement 4 to the point 1.09087 (23.6% fibo point) and then go looking for the movement 5. If it goes down enough to break the point from C, we would have new B (1) and new C (2). You have to wait for confirmations by looking at corresponding indicators.
by Jordi_MM1
EUR/USD:Technical Analysis Points to Bullish ContinuationEUR/USD Pauses in Holiday Hush: Technical Analysis Points to Bullish Continuation As the last week of 2023 unfolds, the EUR/USD pair finds itself meandering within a narrow range during the early European session on Wednesday. The subdued market activity is characteristic of the holiday season, contributing to a quiet trading session. Currently hovering near 1.1041, the pair exhibits a marginal 0.01% dip for the day. Technical Outlook: Examining the four-hour chart, the positive outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains steadfast. A noteworthy observation is the pair's ability to maintain its position above the key 50 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). This stability aligns with our previous analysis, where we correctly predicted a target of 1.1065. With this level nearly attained, our analysis prompts a strategic adjustment, moving the take-profit (TP) marker to 1.1100. Holiday Respite and Market Sentiment: As the year draws to a close, the absence of impactful economic events, commonly referred to as "Red news," is expected to contribute to the prevailing market calm. With no significant disruptions anticipated until the new year, market participants may find themselves in a holding pattern, reinforcing the current bias favoring a bullish continuation for the EUR/USD pair. Looking Ahead: The technical indicators and market sentiment suggest a positive trajectory for the EUR/USD pair. Traders and investors, while mindful of the holiday season's potential impact on liquidity and volatility, can find solace in the pair's resilience above the 50 EMA. As we adjust our target to 1.1100, the focus remains on the potential for a bullish continuation into the new year. Our preference Long positions above 1.08600 with targets at 1.11000 & 1.1150 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Bearish Outlook on EURUSD ContinuesHi Traders! EURUSD continues its bearish outlook as the market is now in a descending channel. Here are the details: After the double top on the higher timeframe idea (see link below), the market looks to have run out of steam to break the resistance level, which provides additional opportunities for short entries to target the support level at 1.08860. We are now looking for a break and a close below the 20 EMA for a confirmation signal. Preferred Direction: Sell Entry Level: 1.09612 Stop Level: 1.09986 Target Level: 1.08860 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
8
USDJPY: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY went up as I predicted. Here are the important key structures to watch. Vertical Structures Vertical Resistance 1: Falling trend line Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line Horizontal Structures Support 1: 140.9 - 141.9 area Support 2: 137.2 - 138.1 area Resistance 1: 146.2 - 146.8 area Resistance 2: 148.2 - 148.6 area Resistance 3: 149.6 - 150.4 area Resistance 4: 151.7 - 152.0 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
GBPCAD Sell/ShortLooking and analyzing over GBPCAD I have analyzed thoroughly we are looking at a potential downtrend for these next few weeks. I have been looking at GC for a while and think it is time to short it all the way down. Please enter with proper risk management when trading and please follow our TV (Trading View) page for more free signals, analysis, and as well posts relating to FX and crypto trading. Thank you. GBPCAD Sell/Short Entry: 1.71711 SL: 1.72282 TP 1: 1.67161 TP 2: 1.65002
Short
by KingTraderFX
13
NZDJPY Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, NZDJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 91.071 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 90.115 Recommended Stop Loss - 91.533 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1