SPY could break down out of the channel at any time now.SPY is in a tricky situation here. Currently it is stuck in a short term ascending channel. The breakdown point could be any day now as the daily Stoch and RSI are reaching overbought levels. One it breaks down, the next point to watch is the long term support level from back in 2017 at $254. From there it can either break below that, or rise back up to the four month downtrend line.
G-channel
AUDUSD 60M getting ready for a move downAUDUSD after a tremendous bout of bullish strength, price is due for a correction. Currently the price action is moving correctively to the upside, showing signs it's ready to head lower anytime soon. The move down will be a very welcomed one as I am very bullish long-term on this pair (see prior analysis). A correction lower will provide an opportunity to add to my long position. Will pay particular close attention if price makes it all the way back down to .7000 handle.
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Trade with care my friends! :)
LTC Short-Term Trading This is not intended to be trading advice, but I thought that I would publish my personal thoughts and current charting. Trading this upward channel on LTC (15 min TF) using regression line with +/- 2 std. dev.. If you have any thoughts I'd love to hear them, please leave negativity out. Good luck and happy trading everyone!
GOLD short on Slope RiderGold seems to be holding at the top of the Regression Band
Slope rider has signalled 3 candles for diversion already.
1226 is a strong volume level that may be holding, my stop loss is above that.
Stop Loss is a tight 10 ticks.
Target is at S1 for a very high reward.
tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the US so price may just not be moving anymore...who knows...
don't take high risks today!
NZDJPY - Rebound or just a correction?
NZDJPY, H4 & Daily
The New Zealand dollar is gaining ground this week against the Yen and the US Dollar. The overriding theme has been Yen weakness, which has been subject to a safe-haven premium unwind following the US invitation to senior Chinese officials for fresh trade negotiations, and also the higher Oil prices.
The NZDJPY crossed yesterday into the upper Bollinger Bands pattern after ebbing to a 24-month low on Monday at 72.25. The pair has been following a bearish linear Regression Channel since July 2017, something that is likely to continue in the long term, since no break to the upside of the channel has occurred so far.
In the medium term though, the rebound from a 2-month low on Monday, away from the lower line of the channel, gave signs that the price action may be due for a change in direction. This, along with the closing above the 20-day SMA yesterday, confirmed that the outlook in the medium term has been turned from negative to positive. Technically-wise the same bullish picture is seen in momentum indicators as well, as daily RSI just crossed above neutral zone with higher lows being noticed since mid-August. MACD is moving in the negative territory, however it moves above its signal line today.
Also, if we review the 4-hour chart, we can notice that momentum indicators are strongly supporting the bullish momentum for the pair, as RSI is ready to enter into the overbought territory with further space to be covered to the upside, while MACD extends its lines above neutral zone and above its signal line.
As the price has decisively closed above 73.50 immediate Resistance level yesterday, price action could move further to the upside, towards a Resistance area reached on August 30, at 74.45-74.60. This is considered to be a strong resistance area at which the pair could reach and the retrace, since it combines the 50-day SMA, the weekly R3 but also the extension of the middle line of the channel. Support is set at 73.00-73.30 .
If this Resistance area breaks, but more precisely, if the median line gets broken in the direction of the trend, this means that a current impulse wave is likely forming, which could provide for a trend continuation signal. Hence further gains above the middle barrier could then target the area around the FE127.2 and August peak, at 75.75-76.30 area.
However, please note that the pair, in the long-term, remains within the bearish regression channel, hence in the case of a clear reversal to the downside, doors for the continuation of the downtrend will open again.
Intra-day, immediate Resistance level is set at 74.00 and Support is set at 73.50 based on the hourly chart.
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BTC in the uptrend channel, dropping to 6700 and still OKAY!A couple observations on the recent price action. The uptrend that we are in is holding form. Last week we penetrated through the purple downtrend channel from 2 previous highs (standard scale, not log scale...interesting side discussion). But after that breakout, BTC has hit a hard wall at 7123, which is the same resistance level that BTC hit on Aug 5 and 7 when it tried to correct from the free fall earlier this month. Not a huge surpise there. Also not a huge surprise that BTC would hit off this level and go down to retest the top of the purple downtrend line. If this happens and it continues down to this line, it appears that it would coincide with my uptrend channel (linear regression tool set to 2 standard deviations) right at my pink ellipse. This retrace back to 6700 would be also represent a .786 retrace from the impulse that began on Sunday, Aug 26. We are currently holding at .5 fib retrace at 6850, so it is possible that this level will hold also, but we would need a pump in bullish volume to prove its support. I am quite surprised that my red resistance rectangle didn't seem to provide any major support. A couple of tests on the top edge of it yesterday, but today it fell straight through. So that support from history is not as relevant as recent support/resistance levels apparently.
There is a hefty battle happening currently with increasing volume, and now we have to see who wins. Coincidentally, this level of 6825 also has been resistance in the past on the way up on Aug 21, as can be seen in this 2 hour chart. It's not as clear on other timeframes, but this 2-hr chart clearly shows the candle close at this level and is most recent, so it could have some validity for support. If not, we can expect to drop to 6700 before we find support and begin our climb upward again.
I am bullish still and this retrace is healthy. The 1 hr RSI is oversold, but the 2 hr isn't quite there yet, nor is the higher timeframes, so this indicates further downward pressure throughout today. I'm not a big fan of the Moving Averages for the simple reason that you can choose whatever timeframe you want and always find an intersection of support or resistance wherever you look. These results don't indicate causation, just coincidence. They naturally coincide because the Moving Average always follows the price by its nature of calculation. Nonetheless, I keep them on my chart to try to learn from them and keep on open mind. But as I said, I can manipulate them just like anyone else so on the Daily timeframe, there is a nice upper bound with the SMMA 20 and lower bound at the SMMA 50. So I'll keep an eye on the daily timeframe to see if there is more to the story.
Lastly, I haven't projected any more Elliott Waves yet, as it isn't clear to me if/where the first bullish impulse wave has ended yet because the subwaves are so volatile and getting a count is difficult. Longer timeframes will be helpful, but I am sure I can safely say that the abc (wxy) retrace has ended and we have begun the next Wave 3 of the Super Cycle.
Have a Great Day!
Kohl's - ShortStrong resistence-area at 78.75. The share did rally twice with strong momentum before to the area, but failed to break it.
Nice setup for double-top might be built by the closure of this weeks session. If today's close-price stays under 75.50, position will be opened at upcomming Monday.
I like the huge trading zone, providing a considerable chance-risk ratio. TP2-level chosen as previous strong momentum countermoves from resistence-area were 50% and 40%+.
BTC 2018 Regression TrendA regression trend (+/-2 STDEV) connecting points $19891 and $5755. It's interesting to see that each swing low has moved up one standard deviation. Will the pattern continue? With BTC's next swing low hitting +2 STDEV? Or will the next swing low be a mean reversion? Let's see...
The Game of Charts- The best time to go long #BTCUSDLONGSBITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS
"The chart speaks louder than words"
Time frame: Daily
Sentiment: Bullish (long)
Daily bitcoin technical analysis with fewer words and more information so that you can have maximum information just with a glance without wasting any time.
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ETCUSD Ready for Positive MovementThere are many things happening with ETCUSD which makes now an especially good time to take a look at Ethereum Classic.
In lieu of the pending release on Coinbase's main platform, those who've wanted to make their exit have all left, leaving a void ready to be filled by the bulls.
This correlates nicely with the recent time cycles that Ethereum Classic has been trading in these past couple months- Ethereum Classic closed its most recent short and long cycles by touching the key 12-13 support range.
In tandem, the most recent P&D is showing a strong bullish RSI convergence. RSI is sitting in the slightly bearish zone, however, and this may reverse soon. The Stochastic RSI is approaching zero, setting up a new reversal.
ETC is trading along the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, and is showing a green candle for the day- marking an end to the week long slump.
The only indicator which doesn't support a new bull run is the ADX/DI. While the DI- made a crossover, the ADX is riding low. I would consider this to be neutral (a small positive correction would not considerably alter this weak trend).
While this is not displayed, ETC has been trading in a downwards channel with a false breakout, however it may breakout soon as it is sitting at this key support range.
I expect this bull run to most likely happen within the next 4 days. Due to the strong pressure of the overall bear market, it is not likely to cross the key local resistance around the 18.5-19 range.
For those who bought earlier following the Coinbase announcement, this may be a good exit for the short term if bear pressure overcomes the positive sentiment following the Coinbase listing.
Good luck to you all!
BTC Retrace of DumpThis is a model of the retrace from the dump to 7480. The double bottom at the vicinity of 7500 and the bounce have formed a narrowing channel heading to the first fibonacci level of 0.382 just under 7800. This should be considered a short-term entry for a short or close for longs opened at 7500-7600. After reaching this target, further upside as high as 8k is possible (.618), but ultimately, this is a bull trap/bear flag that should break down at one of these 3 levels.
The SPX Maintaining a Consistent Trend: More Upside?Looking back to 2016, the SPX has maintained a consistent trend. Thanks to the bounce on Friday we are now targeting a move back towards the highs.
2,800 is the first key target then the top of the channel is 2,900.
A strong showing on Friday has helped save us from a short-term sell-off.
AU long to 75.000 then short to 73.xxxAU is looking to long to 200ma, i think its going to get near 75.000 and then short down to my channel bottom (73.xxx).
last week price double bottomed back into week open range and closed up, but not over the open of the week, still think it is showing bullishness but over all i am looking to short AU, maybe in the coming weeks.
AU monthly is in a established channel, which alot of people would be watching to break, this week will be the end of the month, i feel like it will just keep ranging in the channel as AU usually likes to do.
AUDUSD - Respecting Rgresion Trend Channel - Long Opp As highlighted in the chart , the Aussie has been trending in a nice bullish channel on the weekly timeframe since Q3 2015 and we are currently seeing a test of trendline support which was last tested in December 2016 and preceeded a bounce from 0.71 to 0.76
Looking forward from today it would not be unrealistic to expect rates to cross the centre line which would take us to 0.786 as an interim target with max target currently 0.82-3 based on the grad,if we project forward using the angle of the last wave up we could expect to reach the target in 12 bars (84 days)
If we see a breakdown below the sloping support line then the author suggests stops to be placed just under the May 2017 dip (0.73285) which will give a risk reward of just above 3:1 on the trade , in the event of a drop below the trendline we'd like to see to see a strong bullish engulfing candle (see the Jan 2016 dip) to retain conviction in the trend dynamic.
Summary
Buy at Support on the regression trendline, initial stop at 0.73285, target 0.82-3, trail stop on close above centre line