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G20

G20 Argentina Prospective Regulation DiscussionSteve Mnuchin has stated an intent to bring up crypto regulation at the G20 Argentina financial meetings taking place March 17-20. Mnuchin does not believe that crypto markets represent a threat to financial market stability, but believes some form of regulation is imminently required and wishes to more closely monitor potentials for illegal activity. While the news from this event could go either way, I am hopeful for a positive outcome. French finance minister Bruno Le Maire is not quite as optimistic and intends similarly to discuss this at the summit, citing risky market speculation as a primary concern. I expect that on those dates we are likely to be at the top or bottom of the logarithmic pennant — bottom line established in March and June of last year, and the top being the downtrend from the ATH in December. Which, top or bottom, is likely to be decided by whether BTC price holds the 200-day EMA. I'm bullish on this prospect, and the 4hr indicators are oversold, but either can happen — the sell-off this week has had some extreme spikes in volume. Whichever side of the pennant, the outcome of this summit could be dramatic enough to force a breakout or it could be so banal as to have no effect. Just looking out for it!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by malamoot
Bitcoin, 11000.0 could be too strongGoing UP already? BTCUSD broke the Trend Line Resistance once again, which is fairly considered a bullish sign. We saw fluctuations around the Trend Line Resistance that confirms it is important for the global picture. And the price is above this line again. But, the last breakthrough (at 02.28) stopped at the 11000.0 level, now we the price is at this level again. And to prove that this time the breakthrough will ignite something more significant than last time we will need to see a strong move above the 11000.0 resistance. My opinion - lateral movement Uncertainty, associated with G20 is still present. Hence, the fewer points for the big breakthrough or dive until the summit. Also, the Reverse Head And Shoulders scenario is still relevant, so we still have a Neckline resistance zone starting at the 12000.0 level. All these factors are pushing too hard on the Bitcoin, so my opinion is lateral movement in the 10000.0 - 12000.0 in nearest term.
by BitcoinSymphony
BTC, too early to growThe main idea behind this scenario is that Bitcoin will not go into a bullish bias until G20 summit in March. "U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has indicated he is planning to raise the subject of cryptocurrency regulation during an upcoming G20 summit to be held in Argentina in March."(coindesk) I expect that BTCUSD will go into lateral movement between 12000.0 and Angle Support of the global correction pattern until the G20 event. I expect a rebound in the 11000.0 - 12000.0 zone (below the Neckline of the Reverse Head And Shoulders Figure) and movement back to the 10000.0 level or even lower. Such stressful behavior also will be a good opportunity for big players to buy in on the low prices.
Short
by BitcoinSymphony
EURUSD: Time at mode analysisBrexit made the Euro break under the uptrend mode support, very bearish. Right now, the Monthly has a potential downtrend setup to confirm if price is under 1.1216 by end of July. We could form a new 15 week mode here by the end of the month. This could propel the daily and weekly trends up, against the monthly confirmation. What this tells me is simple, sell the top of the rally to rejoin the bigger picture trend. This will take time, meanwhile, we should look for a safe exit for our shorts, and flip long. I think the market will go for everyone's stops, and everyone must be short the Euro right now. It's highly likely we'll see the Euro, Gold, Silver and the Yen rally together once this happens, as a risk off event. The G20 summit might be the catalyst for this to happen, expecting a major shift and volatility, potentially an equities selloff to come as well. After Monday's close, we can determine the new key level location. Pay close attention this week. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
by IvanLabrie
4
USDJPY: BOJ IN FOCUS - G20 KURODA & REUTERS ANALYST EXPECTATIONS28/29th June BOJ Meeting Expectations by 27 analysts polled by Reuters: 1. 23/27 (85%) expect easing from the BOJ. - The Median Analyst expect a 10bps cut to the headline interest rate to -0.2% and a Yen10TRN Extenstion to the BOJ's monetary base target to Yen90TRN a month (JGB and ETF Purchases). - One analyst expects easing in September, two in October and One sometime next Year. 2. Whilst the Median view is 10bps and 10trn extension, further to the right of the easing curve we observe some top investment banks expecting a more with GS forecasting a 20bps cut and an extension to the Monetary base from somewhere between Yen10-20TRN My View: 1. I am concur with those views further to the right of the easing curve - i expect BOJ to deliver 20bps and 10-20trn increase in monthly JGB/ EFT Purchases as the stagnant inflation situation (-0.4%National/ -0.5%Tokyo) requires some aggressive policy. - Reason for this thinking is that currently the Monetary base has been steady at Yen80trn for some time and the rate has been at -0.10% since January - so realistically is a 10trn increase and 10bps decrease going to be sufficient? - Lets look at the maths - a 10trn increase is 12.5% and a 10bps drop takes us to -0.2% - personally i do not think a 12.5% increase and a slight adjustment to the key rate will bring JPY underlying inflation into a uptrend - if 80trn and -10bps can't, i dont think 90trn and -20bps can - they need more e.g. 100trn and -30bps - a 25% increase in monthly monetary base + a significant decrease in the interest rate - bare in mind that the SNB has rates at -0.75% so the BOJ has a lot of room relatively to cut futher, it's not like its on the edge of economic possibility already when other central banks are already more aggressive. 2. Now whether they will deliver to the right/ aggressive side is up for question, as BOJ/ Kuroda have always been on the conservative side. Though in recent times the BOJ have come under-pressure by JPY Govt/ Abe so imo if they will ever deliver big - it will be now. - Kuroda shrugged off heli money (below) but he did communicate that there could/ should be a double effort from monetary and fiscal policy in order to increase the multiplier effect - which bodes well - we could see dramatic fiscal and monetary policy. Even if we fall short of cash dropping out of aircraft. Kuroda's comments at G20: - "Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Saturday he would ease policy further if necessary to achieve its 2 percent inflation goal, while reiterating a commitment to continue with the current stimulus until prices are anchored there." - "If the economy's (recovery) trend continues, leading wages and prices to rise in a virtuous cycle, which is continuing, prices will eventually rise to the 2 percent price stability goal," - "We always examine risk factors for the economy and prices and will take additional easing steps if necessary to achieve the price stability goal. I'll explain that together with Japan's economy, prices and monetary policy at this meeting." - "Uncertainty will continue, including negotiations between Britain and the EU, which will take years. So we will be paying attention to such things," - "If it means that central banks are directly underwriting government bonds, or managing monetary and fiscal policies as one, that would be prohibited in Japan as well as other advanced economies, as lessons from history tell us," - "If governments utilize fiscal policy while central banks ease policy from the economic and price viewpoint, that would boost the multiplier effect on the economy. This so-called policy mix is nothing wrong as macro policy.
by QuantumLogicTrading
2