BTC one more correction - end of November. TA/FA. FED, CME, G20FA:
- G20 summit (markets been pumped prior to that event - dump on event)
- CME futures expire
- FED reduction
- 26-28.11 been Consensus Invest conference (BTC been pumped during that time - dump after event)
TA:
- notice very strong trend channel of entire correction since 6300$
- two gann fans supporting possible outcomes
- RSI bearish divergences
- RSI bearish historical resistance
- Stoch turning down
- EMA100 (2H) on the top of channel - 4180$
- EMA10 (1D) on higher line of the top of the trend channel - 4410$
- EMA10 crossing down EMA100 on 1W
- already 2x 4D 10h intervals before falling
Conclusion:
- BTC and other markets been artificially pumped pre event this week, and my expectation is that they will dump right before.
- One exception here is Consensus event that was known to pump crypto during entire conference of Consensus conference editions.
- BTC could break higher of course eg. as Gann fan indicating 5.1k till Friday, though I am not really TA enthusiast after all I wrote. Was looking to support my FA and price action bias, to be precise.
G20bitcoin
BTC - POST G20 ANALYSISGood day everyone and welcome to the post G20 analysis on Bitcoin!
Let’s start by having a mini recap on what happened the past couple of days. On March 18th we continued to decline towards the start of the previous wave (1) in a descending wedge pattern. We hit the bottom of the wedge then BOOM, bulls were back on the scene! FSB brought out a statement saying they do not consider regulations on crypto necessary at this moment in time and we burst above the descending wedge. Then we approached our dashed resistance line (formed from the ATH) where we hesitated but, of course, bulls followed through. Today, the G20 summit comes to an end and there is a somewhat positive outcome for Crypto Heads. We escaped regulation for now and crypto highlights the flaws in the financial system. In regards to regulation, a review on crypto-assets (as they call it now) is to be completed in July 2018 to see what is needed. Then we will be going through a similar sense of anticipation as we did for G20 Argentina but, for now, bulls will be spurred by the positive outcome from the past two days.
Now let’s look at price action. Since the break from the descending wedge we’ve had three days of strong bullish action. We formed a higher high, broke the dashed resistance line and are heading into the territory of blue 38.2 - 50% retracement of the previous wave (2). The RSI and Stochastics show us a pull back is imminent and these retracement levels are likely levels to pull back from, $9300 being a level we have bounced off 6 times since December. If the 50 EMA acts as support for the pull back, we should be able to keep the momentum going and touch the dotted resistance line in wave 5. This move could be reversed if we break below the dashed resistance line again but the odds favour the bulls now! If were to break below this resistance, it would increase the chances of retesting the support area and that is where sparks will fly!
For now, let’s see how far into this blue retracement zone we can go! Good luck trading guys!
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