GNS.(Y23.P1.Video1).My initial thoughts on the macro targetHi Traders,
A quick short video straight to the point where we discuss a few scenarios on the available models we know of with such a short history to work with.
Hope all is well.
Please give me a like and share,
Regards,
S.SAri
Gains
S&P500 Index analysisAs we can clearly see I've been tracking this index for a while and FIb is not off on this and i will adjust for current dating, but for the moment we can notice that we are still seeing the sideways climb and ranging from this.
But due to its cyclical nature, we can expect it to be much greater on the back end for the next few days this will be a great SCALPING AND SHORTING environment.
ASX200 prediction for end of year ASX200 prediction for end of year , traffic light system .
expect extra volatility within 3-5 days either side of full moon January 6th
AMZN looking like a SNACKBuying the DIP as I know that AWS is killing it, with the beginning of it's growth just revving up. Plenty gains to be made in the long term, I'm not sure WTF analysts/ppl are seeing here that it's gone this low but i kinda like it makes buying it a lot cheaper. 70 time to take another medium bite, then at 60ish I'm going to fill up like a Professional Hot Dog Eating Champion.
TSLAFinally jumping in, took the first nibble at 155ish. Lowest PE in forever, more recession fears, and hype... well lack there of around Elon and his twitter takeover (noise). China slowing and continued lockdowns are bad, but everyone and every industry over there is also in the same boat. Buying again at around 130, 90ish would be max pain....probably but it's always darkest before pitch black, or so I've heard.
As seen these past few months the biggest risk in this stock is Elon going away, for a while or forever.
Exchange Tokens: CEX vs DEX📈This 1-year chart compares tokens from centralized and decentralized exchanges (in the latter considering those that allow derivatives/futures trading, not just swaps).
BTC was placed as a benchmark.
🥇The GMX token appreciated the most, especially after distrust of the ability of centralized exchanges to honor customer withdrawals.
🥈In second place is the Bitget token.
🥉And in third place is the Gains Network token.
👎The negative highlight goes to Binance's BNB.
SPX downsideIf this continues to act the way it has been, this rally might be nearly over.. probably safe to start shorting soon on the SPX
I have already begun at 4004 picking up shorts and willingly ready for another 100 points with long term view of being further downside and higher reward to downside than upside currently.
CAD / CHF PAIR - SHORTI have an open trade on this pair. I am currently shorting it using metatrader 5. This is my entry which is @ 0.72022 , my stop loss is @ 0.72089 and my take profit level is @ 0.71900 . With this set up I am still being conservative. I think that the price can go lower than the price for my take profit level. On the 1 hour time frame if you look at the chart it's looking like a flag is shipping. A bearish flag to be exact. This pair has been on a downward trend I actually expect this to hit 0.71900 . If any candle hits the price of 0.71900 with out any candle hiting the price @ 0.72073 then this pair is in big trouble. There is no more support after that. Keep in mind I'm looking at the 1 hour time frame chart. Guys this is my ideas and reasoning. Please subscribe and hope to have some people comment on this post. Let me know what you think... If you agree with me or not? Or if you have other ideas? Thanks guys.
iExec RLC/USDT - 2000%+ Potential growth if history repeatsBetween 2020 - 21 RLCUSDT formed a solid base with 4x monthly candles before seeing growth of 2000% percent. Now in 2022, we have again formed a strong base of support with 4x monthly candles, and have just gone above a long term resistance line. If history repeats, RLC could reach a price of $22 which is 2000%+ increase from the base of the 4 - 5 most recent monthly candles. Stochastic RSI also looking good.
📌Prospect theory; what is it?
Humans are not psychologically good traders by nature !
Have you ever wondered, why trading with real money is overwhelming for you?!
The reason should be sought in the psychological aspect of the case. If you lose amount money in the market, you must gain several times ,so the feeling of happiness overcomes the pain of your initial loss!
although all traders, even successful traders, have tasted loss and it is an inevitable part of the trading journey !But the successful traders have learned how to control the psychologically of it and not be limited by the feelings of a loss!
Prospect theory : also called loss-aversion theory is a theory of behavioral economics and behavioral finance that was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. .Daniel Kahneman the author of ' Thinking, Fast and Slow ' book is a Nobel Laureate in Economics who is a psychologist by training. He won the prize mostly for his work in decision making, specifically Prospect Theory. This book distills a lifetime of work on the engine of human thinking, highlighting our cognitive biases and showing both the brilliance and limitations of the human mind. This summary attempts to capture some of the more interesting findings.
Based on results from controlled studies ,he describes how individuals assess their loss and gain perspectives in an asymmetric manner (see loss aversion). For example, for some individuals, the pain from losing $1,000 could only be compensated by the pleasure of earning $2,000 or even more. Thus, contrary to the expected utility theory (which models the decision that perfectly rational agents would make), prospect theory aims to describe the actual behavior of people.
In the original formulation of the theory, the term prospect referred to the predictable results of a lottery. However, prospect theory can also be applied to the prediction of other forms of behaviors and decisions.
Prospect theory: stems from Loss aversion, where the observation is that agents asymmetrically feel losses greater than that of an equivalent gain. It centralises around the idea that people conclude their utility from "gains" and "losses" relative to a certain reference point. This "reference point" is different for each person and relative to their individual situation. Thus, rather than making decisions like a rational agent (i.e using expected utility theory and choosing the maximum value), decisions are made in relativity not in absolutes.
Consider two scenarios;
100% chance to gain $450 or 50% chance to gain $1000
100% chance to lose $500 or 50% chance to lose $1100
Prospect theory suggests that;
When faced with a risky choice leading to gains agents are risk averse, preferring the certain outcome with a lower expected utility (concave value function).
Agents will choose the certain $450 even though the expected utility of the risky gain is higher
When faced with a risky choice leading to losses agents are risk seeking, preferring the outcome that has a lower expected utility but the potential to avoid losses (convex value function).
Agents will choose the 50% chance to lose $1100 even though the expected utility is lower, due to the chance that they lose nothing at all
These two examples are thus in contradiction with the expected utility theory, which only considers choices with the maximum utility. Also, the concavity for gains and convexity for losses implies diminishing marginal utility with increasing gains/losses. In other words, someone who has more money has a lower desire for a fixed amount of gain (and lower aversion to a fixed amount of loss) than someone who has less money.
source: wikipedia
Well, with these concepts , we conclude that Losses loom larger than gains!
the Psychological value of a loss equal or even less than previous profit, can
really affect our mindset , and feeling for trade, actually trading bots are
better than us in this aspect, or better to say ;humans should have a proper
trading system , also should cultivate our discipline and diligence to be a good
trader(psychologically ) !
this article is For informational purposes only!
$SPY as Predicted (So What Now?)My previous post for us to break $400 on SPY happened this week. You can see the directional arrows I drew in the past which was my thesis in how I expected the market to move at that point in time.
Where do we go from here? Ideally looking for $SPY to test $415 before entering into a large play. I'm not looking for the market to crash the next day.
$SPY Target to $400+Scaled in LONGs at current levels a couple hours ago (per most recent TWTR post). I mentioned in my last post that we would see a move up. My aim is for $SPY to exceed $400+. I'm not bullish in the long-term, given the macro environment but will take advantage of a likely pump over the next couple of months. Will add more if SPY lowers (impossible to catch the bottom).
We hit $394 on $SPY after hours. Amazing!
BTC to the dollar Levels - Check post history :0
If there is enough interest in these callouts, I will further expand upon them by adding detailed instructions, stop losses and take profits.
Follow and comment if you want me to chart any specific tickers! Have a Great Day :)
Keep in mind, I trade 100x, so a 0.71% move off of a level is a 71% gain, or a 6.12% move is a 612% gain on my position, so these levels are more suited for high leverage and tight stops rather than spot.
🟣 Purple -> Weekly structure
🔴 Red -> Daily structure
🟡 Yellow -> 4h structure
🔵 Blue -> 1h structure
🟢 Light green -> 15m structure
⚫Grey -> 5m Structure
🌸Pink -> 3m Structure
⚪White -> 1m Structure
Green and Red Long/Short are just for reference, not colour organized structure.
TSLA short term sell signalTSLA Financial Analysis
Income Statement
- Income, Earnings and profit margin for Tesla all increased over past 5 years
- Tesla reported higher than forecast earnings for company for the past 4 quarters
Balance Sheet
- Increasing Assets and liabilities with a shrinking Debt-Asset Ratio
Cash Flow ( Value of the Company is ALWAYS a reflection of FREE CASH FLOW )
- 2018-2019 Tesla free cash flow growth risen by 538.85%.
- 2019-2021 Telsa free cash flow growth is still increasing but by smaller percentages. Since 2019
Tesla free cash flow growth decreased -455.04%
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TSLA Price Chart Analysis
Tesla stock has been decreasing in value since November 4, 2021 losing more than 50% of yearly gains.
Largest decrease in value is near Earning announcements. ( Though Tesla reported higher than forecast earnings—Tesla earnings growth has been declining )
*Tesla forecast to report lower earnings and revenue compared to previous quarter results for the first time in 5 most
recent earning announcements.*
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Sentiment: Short Term Sell - Long Term Buy/Hold
Bitcoin and the 200w moving averageThere are a lot of trash analysts out there that claim that bitcoin has never closed a whole weekly candle body below the 200-week moving average and they are using that lie combined with the fact that bitcoin is now under the 200-week moving average to create fear, uncertainty and doubt. Other trash analysists hear the lie and repeat it without verifying for themselves the truthfulness of the statement.
The chart on the left clearly shows we had multiple candle bodies below the 200-week moving average late 2015 and that lead it is common knowledge that price ran up to over $19,000.
Bitcoin is in the zone for accumulation for many different kinds of traders. My linked ideas will go over different signals for investors to accumulate. If you want more certainty one simple moving average strategy would be to buy bitcoin when the price gets above the 200-week moving average again. I am not going to go into all of the moving average plays, but there is also looking for a daily golden cross of the 50 and 200 week, but that won't be for a while.
The chart below shows that from the high in 2013 to the low of 2015 price reached the 2.414 fib target. As I see it we are still looking to reach a target above the 2 level on the fib draw from the high in 2017 to the low in 2018. It makes sense to book some profits at each 2 level and once price slips back under the 20 week and price treats it as resistance just admit that the run is over.
I have a few preferred alts I am buying. ETHE is still at a discount, and I expect to sell it when the premium is over 5 or 6x.