Galapagos to break below 7 year low?Galapagos - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 40.98 (stop at 43.03)
Daily signals are bearish.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Trades at the lowest level in 38 weeks.
The previous low is located at 41.30.
A break of 41.00 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum.
Our profit targets will be 36.33 and 34.33
Resistance: 45.00 / 47.00 / 49.00
Support: 43.00 / 41.00 / 39.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses
Galapagos
GLPG.BR completing 3rd wave up off the Dec lowTLDR: targeting 80 if next pull back holds 56.
--
Galapagos has gained more than 50% nominally off the Dec '21 low, in a three waves structure.
While running into the 1.618 extension of the green circle i-ii, the technicals are becoming overbought.
With the next earning report within a month, it seems wise to take some profits off the tabel.
Further more, the 65 region also happens to be near:
- an important volume wedge on the weekly ~68 EUR;
- the orange 2.0-2.618 extension, a typical target range for the impulsive subwave v of circle iii;
- the 0.236 retracement of the higher degree correction started in Feb 2020, before the covid crash;
Therefor resistance is expected, a pull back could be starting soon.
Assuming we are topping somewhere between the green 1.618-1.764 extension, ideally the pull back holds above 57-58 region as circle iv to jump start circle v targeting 80 region.
A drop under 56 will be the first warning that this rally is topped in three waves, while dropping under 52 will have me reconsider whether there is any bullish potential left in the near term.
Bigger picture (monthly chart: )
Off the ATH struct in Feb '20, GLPG has corrected more than 80% nominally, but when putting it in logarithmic perspective, it was merely a 0.382 retracement after a phenomenal run from 2.74 to 250.9, almost 100x in 12 years. The long term trend line has never been violated, and the monthly technicals are trying to turn upward again.
Now that we are back to a make-or-break level like the dips in 2011 and 2014, the stop limit to the down side is clearly defined while the potential upside is still beyond imagination.
A hard stop should be placed just under 44, as given the tiny volume in between, the next long term support will likely not be found until 0.618 retracement ~15 EUR.
Conclusion: with 0.382 retracement from ATH ~45 EUR as long term support, maintaining immediate bullish bias as long as next pull back holds above 56.
Galapagos - Strong buy PT $240 > $480We think Galapagos is undervalued at current levels. The price will be heading $240 soon.
Cup and Handle formation.
The RSI / MACD and volume showing signs of recovery from recent 60% correction.
First price target: $ 240
Second price target: $350 - $480 (2022/23)
Full year 2020 results:
18 Febuary 2021
Webcast 19 February 2021, 14.00 CET
Events:
January 27, 2021
Degroof Petercam Healthcare Conference
February 23, 2021
10th Annual SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2021
March 01, 2021
Raymond James virtual Institutional Investors Conference
March 01, 2021
Cowen 41st Annual Health Care Conference
March 02, 2021
Credit Suisse London 2021 Healthcare Conference
March 09, 2021
Barclays Global Healthcare Conference
May 05, 2021
Kempen’s Life Sciences Conference
May 11, 2021
BofA Global Research 2021 Health care conference
June 15, 2021
Citi 10th Annual European Healthcare Conference
September 08, 2021
Citi Global Biopharma Conference
September 22, 2021
Bernstein’s 18th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference (SDC)
November 16, 2021
Stifel 2021 Healthcare Conference
Ready for BulishFDA provides preliminary approval for the drug filgotinib not approved, Galapagos will now assume full responsibility for filgotinib in Europe. Gilead will pay EUR 160 million to Galapagos to accelerate commercial activities in Europe. The gap from 19 march 2019 is filled....ready for the turn up..... what do you think?
Galapagos - Monthly outlookWe are currently in the middle of the month and Christmas is coming. This is a quiet period and normally there will be little movement here. We can therefore conclude that the biggest moves of the month have now come to an end within a week. Assuming that the price closes around this value at the end of the month, we see a pretty good respectation around 200. This may mean that the price will first fall back to the 175 area and then, potentially, break through all time highs.
On the weekly timeframe we see that the 200 level is enormously respected. This is a strong signal that the price could fall back to the indicated 175. This does not necessarily mean that this must necessarily go there, but a correction towards that area would be very common. The moment the price lingers around 175 and creates a solid bottom, there is again a great chance of a price move up and certainly also the possibility of making a new all time high. The next publication is in February, which means that the biggest fundamental influences stay out until that time.
If you have GLPG in your portfolio you should not be surprised when the stock drops a little in the next months. That would be a healthy cycle of the market. In the short term it would therefore not be a very bad idea to sell GLPG relatively close to 200. On the medium / long-term price timeframe the 200 was your ideal target.
If you want to buy GLPG; I would wait a bit. It is not the most favorable price to get in. There are plenty of other stocks that are more attractive to buy.