Gambling
$PLAY.X HEROcoin microcap alt 10-20x?Less than $10 million USD marketcap esports gambling token. If it retraces 2019 ATH we’re looking at powerful upside. Good logo, good name, good ticker. Check it out.
What's next for DKNG? Part 1What's next for DKNG? I'll be providing two other posts, please make sure you check those out as well after reading this. There's a lot of juice behind this stock right now.
As you can see from the chart, DKNG had a clear breakthrough below the 200 day SMA. This line of support had massive volume (VPVR) at the 51 level, the 200 day SMA line at 51, as well as massive psychological support at the 50. All broken through yesterday. Right now, the play is to find the bottom, but where is it? Are we too soon?
For the retail bros, it looks like all is lost, and this shit is going to zero. But... check out RSI and my follow up post.
DKNG reclaim 60?DKNG 4HR Chart-
DKNG had a nice falling wedge breakout with decent volume and a strong close above 58. With earnings approaching as a catalyst, we could see more upside. Would like to see price form higher lows with this current break of the downtrend. A break and hold above 60.50-61 level and we could see nice rally to February highs of 64.70-65. Keep gambling laws, other gambling stocks' news (sympathy plays), etc. on watch as potential catalysts to help boost the Donkey Kong to the moon. Recent news with mobile sports betting laws being passed in states has resulted in pump and dump situation, so keep that in mind as well as current market sentiment.
Forex retail traders in a nutshell99% of retail FX traders are scalpers or day gamblers or "swing" traders.
According to a paper on the BOJ website I'll link below, in 2015 a mindblowing 57% of retail clients were "scalpers".
86% were either scalpers (0 to 1 hour) or day gamblers (1 hour to 1 day).
They excluded those with positions held over 1 month, 1 week to 1 month was only about 5%, much much smaller than all the day gambling.
"Share of accounts by investment time horizon"
So it's not 86% of trades it's really 86% of accounts. For something very niche that no one does.
www.boj.or.jp
Can't blame the FX brokers for giving their clients, which are nearly all gamblers, what they want.
These gamblers looking for excitation and with get rich quick dreams. Success rate of 0% not even 1% not sure what's going on up there.
They're not even meant for this business at all.
Becoming a trader when you have risk & loss aversion facepalm. "It's ok I can work on my flaws and improve"
It is like if being an exterminator would pay a whole lot and so people with a phobia, terrified of rats would start getting into the business "Yes I'm scared to death of rats but I can make it work, for the money do not try to demoralize me". Or snakes & spiders maybe that's a better example, more people scared of wittle spiders.
Clearly ridiculous. "My whole lower body is paralysed but that won't stop me from running a marathon (on my hands?) and winning!".
Since Europe banned binary options (gosh what a scam), which was at least forcing day gamblers to have fixed losses, and with the exception of a few turbos, day gamblers really have their work cut out for them: At least with online casinos they have a fixed loss. Bet 1 coin lose 1 and that's it.
But when they day gamble Forex there is not "hard loss" so they can keep letting the loss get bigger and bigger (due to loss aversion).
Some regulators want to fight retail trading, and keep spreading FUD about it "99% lose".
What do you expect? Doesn't mean it's soooo hard, 99% lose but do not forget 99% are drunk gamblers!
Forex especially since the late 2000s and even more since 2013-2015 has very little trends, not much volatility, and not that much returns to offer, so it gets a more and more negative image but FX traders are allowed to look elsewhere when nothing happens.
Maybe really dumb regulators are going to ban it the moment it turns and becomes very profitable again.
They have all these mental flaws:
- Risk Aversion
- Loss Aversion
- Caring what others do and think
- Casino mentality
- Emotional behavior in general (FOMO, regret, confirmation bias, denial, etc many more)
About the casino mentality here are 2 articles about a recent comment by Charlie Munger:
www.nasdaq.com
www.investopedia.com
These day gamblers, at least they should pick the correct tools where they might have a chance.
The best one has to be the DAX (the Dow Jones might come close too):
Pros:
- Very small costs (house edge is the smallest)
- Lots of activity while it is open for 8 hours
- I think about 1/5 days are good trend days
- 90% of days have the top or bottom of the day in the first 90 minutes I think, or something like that
- There are other cool stats but I don't really remember
- AND many other day gamblers also bet on it! The money gamblers hope to win has to come from somewhere, well here it comes from other day gamblers.
So I'm guessing all the day gamblers just do the same thing? Buy the trend when there may be one, and what separates the winners from the losers is the ones with the biggest... personalities hold their winners and have what it takes to exit losers fast... And that's it... Zero intelligence...
I do not know or understand what gets the vast majority into this whole super short term game, broker propaganda? That's just how gambling mentality works?
99% can't just all be gamblers? Did people lie to them and tell them this is how you are supposed to trade? Why did I never hear about this lie myself?
Does it come from what they saw in some movies and tv? (I never watch tv).
$60,000 Explosion Big Short movie setupIn the movie, the big short Charlie Geller and Jamie Shipley took trades with options out of the money with low probability.
This is an example of such trade, 100 options contract worth $6000 if SOS will run up again, this trade could make $60,000.
If the price will move to $21, this trade could make $120,000
This also shows that options are leveraged, if you would like to buy the shares you would need to pay $39,000 for 10,000 shares.
In this trade, the max loss is $6000, when buying the stocks the max loss is $39,000
How will it end? What do you say?
DKNG back to 70+?DKNG 1HR CHART...
After a strong sell off from reaching ATH, we seen some bullish momentum in the past 2 weeks with a strong close on Thursday. March Madness championship is Monday April 5th, so a potential catalyst to help this momentum continue. Expecting to see some bullish price action early this week and sell the news with sports activity decreasing. Possible catalysts to keep a look out for... gambling laws, partnerships, app features, etc. A safe entry would be on the break of 65 and a hold, to ride it back up and retest ATH. A Break Under 61 I would consider looking for a short opportunity to mid 50s depending on the overall market sentiment.
$IGAC - Bullish Divergence (READY FOR THE BIG RIDE BABY!?)This one has been quiet for a while. Bradley Tusk doesn't hype his SPAC like other founders. He is a results driven person from what I can tell by my own research. I see a descending wedge with bullish divergence on the hourly. I am looking for 11$+ on the upside. If a major target is announced (several rumors of FanDuel, Epic Games, etc.) then it will of course go much higher. This is all speculation and nobody knows what the target may be, other than it is in the hospitality, leisure, and gaming focused areas. I am not a financial advisor and you should perform your own due diligence. I am not responsible for any gains or losses you may incur by reading my charts or analyses. I have a position in this stock and/or stock warrants currently. $IGAC
PENN - trade idea PENN is another stock being added to the SP500. short term looks like we can see a pull back. As can be seen the chart is all over the place but its been choppy the past few weeks. Im expecting some short term downside but the longer timelines show bullish sentiment in my opinion.
I expect a pull back slightly this week with longer term upside, I would estimate that PENN will pull back to the 0.5 level (118.86) and then turning around to continue higher.
Short term meaning one-two hour charts.
Always do your own analysis prior to taking any trade
this is for educational purposes and not investment advice.
DKNG correction time?$DKNG update wave 3 of 3 target hit, could see a retrace to my .618 which fills that gap at 62, I can see one more push towards mid march once this correction is in, after this month not much sports activity going on but news with gambling (laws, app features, partnerships) can push this.
Short target: 60
Long Target: 75+ ($100 stock long term)
Esports Entertainment Group Files NJ Gaming License ApplicationEsports Entertainment Group Files NJ Gaming License Application
$GMBL today announced it submitted its gaming license application with the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement ("NJDGE").
"This is our first gaming license application in the US, and once approved, we believe we will be the first esports-vertical focused sports book with a state license in the US,"
"According to a study from data firm Interpret, over 50% of U.S. esports fans said they are likely to engage in esports betting so we are confident that demand will be strong.
With a solid regulatory framework based on player protection, business stability, and growth, the New Jersey gaming industry has enjoyed exceptional growth in recent years.
finance.yahoo.com
FANS.C is likely starting a new leg upBullish Engulfing candle yesterday with a nice follow-through today. Very close to completing a bullish MACD cross which would confirm the start of new bullish trend.
Take a gamble on GNOGIf this stock has another pump left, it may look something like this.
Anything under $19.00 is a good buy, under $17.00 is better, stop losses at $14.75
Let's go crystal ball!
GHACThese units only include 1/3 warrant, less opportunity to remove risk by selling warrants. Moved around 10% on the portfolio into this at $10.34 leaving risk capped at 3.4% before warrant value is considered.
Like other Spac positions, I plan to sell warrants to relieve risk on the share position, then sell the share position around the merger, not necessarily before it after.
DKNG - Double top or breakout?Happy Sunday! I am looking for gambling sector to break out here after the Super bowl and PENN earnings last thursday. The options flow is very bullish with February put call ratio at .34, March P/C ratio at .32. The highest OI is in the Feb $65 calls and March $70 calls. Feb 4th, DKNG agreement with the National Football League (NFL) to expand their current daily fantasy sports (DFS) and content partnership to Canada.
$DKNG and $PENN - Betting on BettingFor anyone who remembers the death spiral of March 2020 with $DKNG trading at $10.60 and $PENN trading as low as $3.75 you are either riding the wave or watching in wonder. Even with the impossible runs both have taken off their 2020 lows many debate where this “sports betting” trade will go?
Some points of consideration:
Size of Market
Since the PASPA repeal in May 2018 approximately 50% of the U.S. has some form of legalized sports betting. This number is a little misleading as a state like New York is included even with the very limited access to betting markets through Tribal agreements. When you consider California from a strictly GDP perspective you are talking about an economy roughly the size of the U.K.. And when you look at California, Texas, New York and Florida which are all starting to lean into true legalization conversations you are talking about 36% of U.S. GDP in those four states alone.
The other major component when trying to figure out total addressable market is the black or grey market for sports betting. The legalization of sports betting did not create a new market for sports bettors, it simply created access to one onshore in the U.S.. The debate for how big the black market is a fair one and only one part of it, the other is how long until it can be migrated onshore if at all.
When looking at market caps and market share it is clear that the original assumptions of the market were too small and are a major reason for the sustained push higher in the gaming sector with $DKNG and $PENN clearly out performing. As new states come on it should make you reconsider the true size the market to better align price targets.
Nielsen 2.0
Many debate the true value of both $DKNG and $PENN because those familiar with the sports betting industry understand that a sports book typically is a very low margin business (5-6%) that requires major expenses to acquire new customers with cost per acquisition being reported well over $1,000 per depositing player. If we take a step back and look at what a digital solution will offer operators we can begin to see the forest through the trees in how sports book and large gaming operators will be positioning themselves over the next 3-5 years.
In one word, data.
If we fast forward to 2025, who will know more about the sports fan than $DKNG and $PENN? Who will have access to mold and monetize the fan experience? When I was a kid I would watch Sportscenter on repeat. Today, these companies know every key stroke we make. The value of that data defines the true value of these companies in my opinion.
Conclusion
If you stop to consider both $DKNG or $PENN as marketing companies who are attracting players for other products like igaming or hospitality you can begin to see a true path to what I believe they are working towards. The recent M&A across the gaming and media space is a lesson in effective distribution. The momentum has been started with COVID and the March 2020 lows with digital channels becoming critical to future success.
The sports betting trade continues to be bullish as it will lead to much more than a single bet. Remember, as the old time gamblers will tell you, “sports betting is only the thing that gets you the thing”.
Author
Scott San Emeterio
CEO, BallStreet Trading - Hosting real-time markets on live sporting events.
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