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Happy New Year 2023 - Only 1 tip for you!If you don't know your trading levels, then you don't have a game plan... The only time you're ready to trade is where you have the exit plan in mind through risk and reward as well as WORST case scenario... Are you ready to trade in 2023! My only tip for this year is go where you are appreciated NOT where you are tolerated. Trading View is such a special place because we all have one thing in common. To take control of our own life without any dependency. I've been trading since 2003 and now have the platform to share some ideas and experiences that I've gone through to eventually trade for a living from 2011. Welcome to 2023. May it be a year of learning, improving, growing and profiting. Trade well, Live free... Timon MATI Trader
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
How do you feel?If you check at least 3/5 on the below we might be in the right place. 1. Depressed 2. Tired 3. Stressed 4. Scared 5. Out of money to buy more I do not know about you but I have been through all of the above over the last 12 months! I made tons of mistakes no doubt about that! BUT i wIll not make the biggest one, panic sell at the bottom or in the first rally! Some things to consider when you try to draw the picture of the next 6-12months 1. Advertising Costs or User Acquisition Costs ⬇ + NPS ⬆ ( What's doing Meow Meow on the roof???) 2. Shipping Costs + Shipping time ⬇ 3. West Disposable Income ⬇ Why is Peter Selling? well, for a buyout to take place at least >50% of shareholders must agree! Now retail holds 39% + the previous 10% of Peter before starting selling makes 49%! you understand how dangerous that was for the Funds that they wanted to take over right? Probably the price is already set! nobody else besides peter is selling here! Now have a look here: Vijay's Contract "Restricted Stock Units. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an award of Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”) for that number of shares of the Company’s Common Stock equal to $12,000,000 divided by the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share + "Stock Options. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an option to purchase that number of shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock equal to $16,800,000 divided by the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share (the “Option”)" The average closing price prior to the Start Date meaning Dec 21 was around $3.2 giving to Vijay the option in case he would stay with the company to hold around 9m shares or 1.3%. So Peter's 10% + Vijay 1.3% + Retail 39% or more at the time since many got liquidated gives us >50%, if one of the funds holding 3-4% could be on their side the acquisition would be even harder to take place. Imo this is an ordered acquisition and Retail will pay for it! What a beautiful game! Based on 670m shares float here are the % based on (simplywallst.com data and fintle.io) Holders >1% 1. Vanguard together with its passive funds holds 84,819,961 or 12.65% 2. Blackrock together with its passive funds holds 37,909,425 or 5.65% + iShares (owned by Blackrock) 20,564,283 or 3.069% 3. Formation8 Partners 42,192,476 or 6.29% 4. DST Global 38,301,392 or 5.71% 5. GGV Capital, LLC 25,707,499 or 3,83% 6. General Atlantic Llc 16,888,478 or 2.52% 7. Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. 13,519,000 or 2.01% +5m call option + potential 0.74% 8. State Street Corp 13,349,046 or 1.99% 9. Geode Capital Management, Llc 8,442,463 or 1.26% 10. Comprehensive Financial Management LLC 8,406,736 or 1.25% 11. Renaissance Technologies Llc 8,264,800 or 1.23% All of the above players hold together 47.45%! Peter already sold 3.63% and probably going for >5%, when we learn who bought in i think the price would not be where it is now! From the 2021 Annual Report "In addition, in July 2017, FTSE Russell and Standard & Poor’s announced that they would cease to allow most newly public companies utilizing dual or multi-class capital structures to be included in their indices. Affected indices include the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600, which together make up the S&P Composite 1500. Under the announced policies, our multi-class capital structure would make us ineligible for inclusion in any of these indices, and as a result, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and other investment vehicles that attempt to passively track these indices will not be investing in our stock." IMO Peter's conversion from B to A opened the door for the acquisition ! Since they will scoop everything from their passive funds! What's the price???? If the deal is done and you are the SMART MONEY wouldn't you like to purchase all the stock available??? I mean look at that depressed 39% that sits there! IMO 2 paths are possible depending on how the markets will do over the next 6-12months 1. If markets do well there will be an explosive rally to $3-5 towards the EoY, I bet most of you will take your money and leave at that point, the volatility (shaking) is going to be insane! RSI constantly overbought on divergence the opposite of what's happening now! 2. If markets do bad then 0.90-0.70 will do. I think a big % of retail will give up on new lows or on the first 100-300% rally. Now IF and i say IF there is a buyout what would be the price? I would like to think of a price higher than the institution's average. Wish right now has no major shareholder (Peter is gone) I think VC's will likely dictate the price. My guess would be something around 4-6x FY23 sales if markets go well! That should be in the range of 4-6b maybe a little higher depending on how sales would look in 23. That translates to a price of more or less $7-9 or Inside the GAP!!! *Peter's Thiel Fund sold all of it's shares on the WSB frenzy for an average of $12 i think in the best best best case scenario that's the ceiling! Do your own research and do not listen and trust nobody! In the end, we are all alone in this game! Keep calm WGMI!
WLong
by Philoslother
10
The Truth About Trade AccuracyA critical component relating to trading success is the relationship between your win percentage and your bottom line. Many new traders hold some extremely inaccurate views when it comes to what kind of win percentage is required to generate net profit, including the notion they need a 70% or higher win percentage to achieve success. This notion is wrong and misleading. The relationship between your win percentage, your risk management, and the profit you generate from each trade are intricately related. The beauty of this post is that the backtest logic in our Olympus Cloud indicator showcases the concepts covered with real trades, which is shown under this post in the data section. The Positive Win Percentage A win percentage over 50% is regarded as a probable edge or edge. Yet, even with a 60% win rate, you can generate a net loss. How? If your average loss is $100, but you are in the habit of falling prey to your emotions and prematurely selling your winners so you only generate an average of $50 when you win, you will lose money regardless of your 60% win rate. No trader goes into a trade thinking, “Hey, I’ll lose $100 if I’m wrong and I’ll make $50 if I’m correct.” Nevertheless, random wins of $75, $25, $60, $40, $90, and $10 will average out to $50 per win. No one purposely tries to win half of what they lose, but random trading combined with random emotions produces random results. We all desire winning and making good profits when we take a trade, but as emotions come into play, things quickly change. You may take a trade that reaches $75 in profit and then decide the move looks gassed out, so you sell. On another trade, you might get scared by some volatility, or notice a resistance you neglected to spot initially and sell for $25 of profit. It is all too common to fall prey to your emotions and behave in a way you didn’t plan to. The irony is, that you will regard the $25 trade as a winner, and it will raise your trade accuracy. Let’s look at a simple example: Example: 100 total trades with 60% trade accuracy 60 winning trades at an average of $50 per win = $3,000 40 losing trades at an average of $100 per loss = $4,000 Net loss of $1,000 In the example above, your break-even point is a 67% win percentage for a whopping $50 in profit. With this type of random risk and profit management, any meaningful net profit requires a win percentage upwards of 75-80%. The psychological damage of having a higher average loss than an average win is hard to quantify, but it’s easy to feel frustration when one loss wipes out two wins. While this sounds like common sense, many, many new traders fall into the habit of random profit management and find themselves in this undesirable situation. The same theory holds true even if you let your winners play out, but you also let your losses escalate and take a few big hits to your account. In either scenario, your 60% win rate means nothing. The Negative Win Percentage In the case of a negative win percentage, you can produce a net profit even if you are correct less than 50% of the time. In this scenario, your advantage over the market is getting into trades that consistently provide large gains when you win, and by letting those winners play out fully. Furthermore, you can’t hesitate to cut your losses and keep your drawdown controlled. With this kind of win rate, you must not sell early or your entire business model falls apart. You must understand that the big winners will make up for any profit you leave on the table. Let’s look at what happens if you are correct 40% of the time, but your average win is $100 and your average loss is $50: Example: 100 total trades with 40% trade accuracy 40 winning trades at an average of $100 per win = $4,000 60 losing trades at an average of $50 per loss = $3,000 Net gain of $1,000 It is now clear that win percentage is not everything. You can make money even if you are correct on 40% of your trades as long as your average win is double your average loss. The smaller your average win compared to your average loss, the higher your accuracy must be to make a net profit. Of course, if you can maintain a win percentage over 50% while also having proper risk and profit management you will end up far ahead. Putting It Together Clearly, the best approach is to combine a reasonable win percentage of over 50% with proper risk and profit management. You must consistently let your winners play out regardless of the emotions you feel in the moment and ensure you don’t take losses beyond a certain threshold. Furthermore, scaling out of trades – selling portions of your position as the market moves in your favor – will increase your accuracy and ease your mind. By dividing your position into two or three tranches you can lock in a certain amount of profit at predefined targets and then let the final portion ride out the trend with a trailing stop-loss. Revisiting our example, let’s put these concepts together with a reasonable win percentage: Example: 100 total trades with 55% trade accuracy 55 winning trades at an average of $100 per win = $5,500 45 losing trades at an average of $50 per loss = $2,250 Net gain of $3,250 Now, that’s what you want to see! It’s more important you behave in a consistent manner and follow a predefined game plan than it is to have 80% trade accuracy. It is wise to strive for reasonable trade accuracy – 50% to 65% – and remain consistent in order to fulfill your trading potential. After you have mastered your emotions with a consistent strategy, perhaps you can raise your win percentage to mythical values like 80%. As we have covered, though, such accuracy is not required for great trading results.
AMEX:TANEducation
by Level8Trading
1
CRYPTO MARKET CAP. - CAREFUL! GamePlan for the Brain. Man.So we can see a breakout on the daily market cap chart, we also have the GreyScale BTC unlock coming up this week. coincidence? Well - maybe not. We see that Longs have stopped growing, this is somewhat odd and generally points to a short term reversal coming. Likewise our shorts are beginning to build. I would expect this to continue up until mid/late this week, there looks to be a very clear play on the market at the moment with the shorts growing in the short term. Once we reach the middle/ end of the week I believe we'll start to see the shorts top out, longs finish a small correction and start growing again, and btc dump so that investors can get a premium on their GBTC. Gameplan? follow the money! We know from looking at our short chart that we probably aren't at the short term top as it's still rising, so take some longs until we see btc top out and bearish powers start to take over, then short HARD down to 33k ish. This is gonna be rather aggravating for hodlers - but you're a patient bunch. For short term traders expect a couple days of excellent opportunities you should definitely capitalize on. I think we're still quite early in the overall bull-run realistically, possible only a quarter of the way in. But we'll know soon if this is the case or we're in the denial phase and i'm guilty.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by cryptosince1963
1
DISNEY (DIS) - WAVE FORECASTDisney has achieved a logical target for this corrective movement. In the chart, however, a slightly bearish H&S formation can be seen, which should be observed in my opinion. 166 USD is crucial: A break below that level would activate 2 more targets to the downside: 155 or (144). That would be a perfect entry. On the other hand, this formation can dissolve very easily. That would also correlate with my bullish view for the overall market. Important for this is a break of the 183.39 level. Then disney can attack the ath again + i see targets around 225 USD.
NYSE:DIS
by TizTrader
SPX's 70s ABCDE & 20s ABCDE waves, a " Game of comparison" .This Game is adjusted to 1/4 of Cycle time. Meaning that 20s ABCDE waves took 1/4 of the time of the 70s ABCDE waves. This "Game of comparison" could be irrelevant to SPX, like nothing at all to compare, but it's what it is therefore do not take it seriously just something to watch every once a and while. The real question will our "BIG MAMA" allow this to happen, of course "No" Mama will not accept that. "UNLESS" we get a big catalyst of some sort ;-) that big Mama can not handle for few weeks ;-) . Here is an idea how big is Mama right now !!! with out the stimulus , imagine how big will it be starting this weekend when the money inflow start with checks coming this weekend or sooner .
SP:SPX
by samitrading
DOGEcoin to the ROOF!!!!BINANCE:DOGEUSDT Hi guys , We are getting close to the breakout of the triangle that has formed on the chart and believe it or not it's the third time that we are having this same pattern , so if we break out of this one too like the others and confirm it we can set our targets at these levels ( the target of our triangle is perfectly aligned with 0.0878 Fibonacci level ) : 0.09 $, 0.1278776 $, ....... and hopefully 1$! !!!! (¬‿¬) If you find this helpful please share your thoughts with me and comment down below your entry points !!! If you want to support me like this idea and follow me for more!!!!! Thanks
Long
by arshia3h
3
Shield walls & battle plans when using pivot points.I always recommend when it comes to bull markets, "nibble on dips, and enjoy the rips." No need for profit taking, but when capital needs to be invested the best modus operandi is to wait till price falls and confirms a bounce off the pivot points to the right. I want to put in your minds eye, your third eye an image. A warzone between warring Viking clans. I do not care if you are short or long (although it is ill-advised to short a bull market) but use these pivot points for planning all your entries and exits. Imagine you are on the battlefield and you have the warring Viking shield wall running right at you, and you are in the middle of the field on your lonesome - I would say unless you have the buying power of a market maker it will not end well and typically you enter your position immediately in a loss. Now, let's say instead you watch on the sidelines and see the enemies charge the shield wall and clash into the pivot point. I recommend joining your shield wall at that point as you will have an army of buyers putting up a fight with you. Or if the wall breaks with confirmation, and we are in a bear market you have a target for your short and you will know where to take profits and bow out for the next conflict. I do not know if that imagery is of any aid to anyone, but literally this how I view trading and it makes it a heck of a lot more entertaining to watch it play out. We are blessed to not be in a day & age of having actual shield walls, but let's still trade strategically with a battle plan as the capital and resources are exactly what many of those conflicts were all about. Good luck trading guys!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ZenMode
4
ICHIMOKU AND RVI BEGINNERS PLAY BOOKNow ichimoku is relatively simple look for buys above the cloud and look for sells under the cloud. so when we backtest that over our 5/5 winners with rvi we get two less entrys, however as a beginner to avoid them whipsaw movements that isnt always a bad thing. The cloud itself offers dynamic support and resistance based of averages. price breaking through the cloud signals a breakout and a change in the trend usually. if new to trading I recommend learning about ichimoku on youtube, its not the all time great plan but if you have no plan its better than that. to keep discipline and entry requirements.
TVC:USOILEducation
by UnknownUnicorn6102956
SPY Update - how I use invalidation to my advantage!Sorry, forgot to turn off my second chart... make sure you are looking at the chart on the left when doing this... though, both are relative As we can see, my game plan for today was to WATCH for a confirmation of a wave 1 - 2 setup to indicate that Wave 4 (wave "iv" in white) would be complete and that we would start the 5 wave count down for Wave 5 (wave "v"). But now that set up to watch for is invalidate (the red numbers 1 - 2 are what I was looking for today). So, what now? 1) this is why I say be patient and let the set up get established! Where my invalidation was set at 281, this was in alignment with the .618 fib retrace and within the zone of filling the gap. The key was to watch if this held as resistance, break down, and then backtest = that would be a pretty good confirmation for red waves 1 - 2 to be set up and completing 2) As the market progresses, we slowly start to get more confirmations of what form the structure seems to be taking. Game plan today had us in a Wave IV retrace, but, due to invalidation, this changed. Changed to now that instead of being in a wave IV, I now have it that wave IV and V have been completed, with wave V being at 272. 3) this actually supports my bias of leaning to the downside... How?! Because I like to see completed structures rather than structures in process. Game plan last night had us working on a 5 wave structure. When something is being worked on, things don't always go as planned. But now, if this is accurate, we now have a completed 5 wave structure! Being able to make projections based off completed structures helps to increase the probability of success! So, my updated game plan: 1) I am currently SCALING into building a short position. As of this moment, and following my last night game plan, I watched for what I thought a wave 1 - 2 set up would get established. As that was invalidated, I didn't enter a position right away. Continuing to watch price action and reviewing the structure, I believe we are working on completing wave 2 (yellow (ii) numbers). I started a small size short in SPY. So, I entered when price was extending past the .618 fib. AGAIN, I am scaling in... I have a small position... this is why a plan is important and knowing your risk is critical... I will add more to my position when I see red waves 1 - 2 establishing. 2) I am looking for a wave 1 - 2 set up to become established. To help confirm yellow wave (ii) ends, I will look for a sell off / price dip (first indication wave (ii) is done). Then, my confirmation will be to look for a wave 2 retrace and print a lower high. This will signal that Yellow waves (i) and (ii) are in, and that we have now set up a wave 1 - 2 (circled numbers in red) for a 5 wave count down for yellow wave (iii).
AMEX:SPYShort
by PT_Marche
4
My Bitcoin Ascending Triangle Game PlanOk, I'm assuming everyone knows Bitcoin is attempting an ascending triangle. What I don't like about this ascending triangle is the bearish divergence. What I really DON'T LIKE is the cross to the negative side as of two days ago on the MACD. This just shows that 'winter is coming' and the perfect opportunity for a short with it. Of course this is not financial advise and I'm merely sharing my thoughts. GAMEPLAN -------------- It is May 25th, 2019. I'm expecting a drop to 7890 around Memorial day before starting our last shot at breaking 8300 if we do not continue to fall. While the trend continues upward because of bulls buying dips, I will stay on my long and might add some at 7890 if we get there with VERY TIGHT stop losses. We all know we are over extended and the crazy strong resistance from 9.5k to 10k. So the way I will play this is planning to long 6k to 6.8k or short 9.3 to 10k and close my current positions via a stop at 7.7k if we drop below the support area. I will also be selling from 8800 to 9500 area while raising the stop at the same time. My plan is to average my entry within these points spread out evenly with a massive short at 10k or massive long at 6k if we get there which I doubt. Whether long or short there's going to be a lot of opportunity coming up soon. What is your game plan? How are you playing the next week? I hope you've establish it ahead of time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by dreamsound
1
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 345)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Consensio: Fully bullish ... Patterns: Hyperwave fractal , lol Horizontals: R: $7,300 - $7,500 Trendline: 30 minute channel Parabolic SAR: $4,497 | $6,719 on 4h, probably a good one to keep an eye on Futures Curve: Starting to test the backwardation that has been persistent. Funding Rates: longs pay 0.01% Shorts: Dumping, but not anywhere near be ‘oversqueezed’ TD’ Sequential: G5 Ichimoku Cloud: Reentering weekly cloud Relative Strength Index: 88 Average Directional Index: Not overbought, even on 4h Price Action: 24h: +13.69% | 2w: ++40.65% | +40% Bollinger Bands: Breaking out from a weekly squeeze Summary: HOW INCREDIBLE IS THIS?!?!?! I still cannot believe it! This is an unprecedented move! The last time we have had a 3 month candle this big was Q4 of 2017 and we are not even halfway through this quarter!!! I understand that I was calling for lower prices and largely missed out on this move, but I am still pinching myself, wondering if this is a dream. We are ripping through resistance that could have taken many months! The higher that the price goes the greater that the chances are that this bear market is over in my mind. If we really are entering the next bull market then I believe there is an extremely high likelihood of six figure prices. Therefore this is just the very tip of the iceberg and it is very important not to make emotional / reactional decisions. I currently have about 30% of my overall desired exposure and I do not intend on increasing it right now. It was only 15% before this > 100% increase in price, so I wasn’t necessarily intending to have that much percentage exposed, but that is a difficult ratio manage with an asset this volatile! I always recommend to have 5% - 10% of personal networth exposed to BTC at a minimum. This has been my suggestion in bull and bear markets. The upside is too great not too. In bear markets I wanted a small percentage and in bull markets I want to have a very high percentage. When risking a very significant amount of money I want to wait for confirmation opposed to trying to get the best price possible. If this is just the beginning then there is plenty of time to make a long term investment (2+ years). We are entering the weekly cloud and many indicators are not that overbought, which absolutely blows my mind. The ADX and TD Sequential both show plenty of room to the upside. The RSI could be interpreted that way as well. The funding rates and BTCUSDSHORTS confirms this. My backup plan was to wait for a golden cross and spending some time above $6,500. This is not how I was expecting to get there. Sometimes even a well thought out backup plan is not enough to prepare for the markets volatility and that is especially true in crypto. Now that we have made it through $6,200 I expect that to be an area that acts as strong support on a pullback. Before today I was looking 20% lower than that. Whatever happens I will scale in by portions and will remain as flexible as possible. It is up to you to make up your mind and develop / stick to a sound gameplan. Wait for the weekly close before making a decision for a significant amount of money. Whenever it feels like a decision needs to be made right now it is best to wait, at least for a few hours. For those who are feeling like a deer in the headlights here are TWO OPTIONS: 1) Scale in at 10% of a time. Do this at certain price points, or certain dates. For example: 10% every 2 weeks or every $1,000 in price increase. 2) Another option would be to scale in 1% of the desired position every day for the next 100 days. My Gameplan I love using Exponential Moving Averages to buy pullbacks. The 50 and 200 EMA on the 4 hour and daily charts are my favorite. When they are in a fully bullish posture then scaling in when the price tests those areas provides high probability entries. If they rollover / cross into a bearish posture then I will be immediately scaling back out. Until that happens I will be watching the 30 minute channel that is illustrated in the chart above. As long as we stay in / above that channel I am bullish . Once it breaks down I will be expecting a correction. It could happen very fast so it is important to be alert / prepared.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
17
SPX Bubble Cross of Death As we are approaching closer towards the fall months and a new election cycle we see a tremendous amount of opportunity presenting itself in the global markets. The market is not going to collapse just yet, look for liquidity to be reached for above the market highs in 2015 before we head down to take out any traders that were previously short at the top of the market. This will run stop losses above the market place allowing for smart money to sell those buys, when the stops are run look for all major markets to then break down into the fiat currency collapse, the start of the cashless society, and a new global currency. The DXY will reach for 1.05 - 1.07 before we head down for good. Precious metals, commodities, and bitcoin will go vertical once we print the top in the dollar index (DXY). Gold and Silver are always good ways to insure your wealth in these volatile and uncertain times if you are not an experienced trader. Geo-political Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia will sell treasures to influence this controlled collapse by the central planners and look for war to start with these countries into the late summer.
SP:SPXShort
by yankees14011
12