$GME - Feb Cycle UpdateJust a small update.
I've started building a position in GME long calls starting today as i'm not sure whether we'll see the typical SLD drop. My thoughts are that the latest Ukraine/Russia warmongering by the US media has failed to cause the market to plummet and thus be used as an excuse for the monthly & quarterly SLD drop that should happen this week.
I'm not sure whether we'll see the drop or not, but i'm now leaning more towards that we won't see the drop for GME. Due to this i've started building my GME cycle position for next week & the week after. I closed my SPY puts today at $438 and reversed some of it into GME calls. I'm holding on some cash in case we do drop more this week so i can get more calls near the money cheap. I've also got into another retailer stock that likes sympathy runs during these GME cycles, but i won't mention it here as it's besides the point.
Good luck to whatever you decide to do.
Gamestop
$GME - Cycle about to start, but beware of next week.Next week from Wednesday to Friday, the top 30 NSCC members (Biggest banks) need to provide liquidity to the NSCC for option clearing.
Typically during the week that this occurs (next week) in 3/4 cycles, next week will see a drop in SPY and most indexes as well as their constituent stocks.
This drop is very to include GME as well. So far in 1/4 cases (Last November) this did not happen and instead GME was very bullish for what November's equivalent that is next week.
I've taken profit on my GME cycle calls and plan to re-open them some time mid-late next week during the dip. During this time i've already grabbed SPY puts due to the expected index drop during the SLD/Supplemental Liquidity Deposit banks need to make for the 17 Feb - 02 March OPEX/Option Clearing cycle. From the behavior of the market/GME/SPY etc, it "feels" like we are in a proper GME cycle and that we should expect that options being cleared that will hit the market on 23 Feb will cause GME to reach the $180 PT or more.
This is not 100% for sure of course as there has been one out of 4 instances where this has actually failed. I'm going with the odds that SPY will drop, GME will drop.
Good luck to whatever you decide to do. The fact is that next week is the SLD and the week after is OPEX. I'm gonna roll with it and expect that the whole market will behave as it SHOULD during this period which is to "correct" a little, see VIX pump next week & all stocks down with an eventual recovery around Thursday-Friday (hence where i'll be re-entering GME calls).
GME OutlookHello again, still watching the monthly and weekly charts on GME. It's possible we have a new bull run in the next few weeks, but i believe we still have more downside. Institutions still are not buying and there has been no major increase in volume. Follow the money and think like a whale. With that in mind i believe we will still see $50 range and see some form of accumulation phase similar to what we saw before the previous bull run. Hard to say if it will squeeze again, if at all. However the company really does look to making progress towards becoming a great tech company with all the new hires, msft deal possible, and nft marketplace.
GME BREAKS TRIANGLE = BULLISHWe never hit the bottom of the triangle, which is super bullish. I know everyone saw what happened today and is wicked pumped, myself included. Honestly i just want to keep posting updates to keep the hype train rolling. NFT announcement finally LFG! Cannot wait to own my own in game items, i am not into buying skins in video games bec they are just a waste of money rn imo but once this becomes an investment that i can own on the GMERICA marketplace I am going to be so hyped. Gamers will be able to capitalize on their hours playing video games by earning items with real world value. it is so cheap at current valuations, it baffles me people are not jumping on it right now. Also, my bday was yesterday and i gave myself the day off from the charts so having today be the first day back and seeing what GME did was an awesome present :) See you on the moon gents!
GME + FibTriangle = Super Bullish ! ! !Oh GME, Oh GME, are you really forming a fib triangle for FibTriangleWavesforDayz to finally give to the GME CHADS? The pattern that I owe my username to? My favorite bullish reversal pattern. I love taking a long position at the E wave. If we hit 89 or 90 either tomorrow or friday, time to buy more shares/calls. Lever tf up boys. I CANT STOP BUYING!!! BUY, HOLD, DRS, BUY CALLS!
Thanks GameStopFor dumping 14 million imx tokens you recieved on apes/retail.
You can see we broke down, broke up again and then we broke back down below but holding. The weekend will probably determine where we go.
Clearly not enough interest to keep this afloat and I believe it's mostly due to Very negative social sentiment. Leads me to believe this will be dropping further as one looking to get into imx will not be drawn in expecting further downtrend. LRC looks to have the better social sentiment at the moment.
Holding on the daily so far. Pucker up crypto is a rollercoaster.
GME - OH YEAH I LIKE HOW THAT LOOKS !!!Ik i have been posting a lot of bottoms lately and its bec there have been a lot! GME has had this weird daily price action where it closes red on the day with a green daily candle but does not really make any new lows. Breaking above this gets my nips ready for another rocket ship moon landing. I got NO2 and turbos in my rocket ship. My rocket ship goes fast!!! My moon tickets were bought, did you forget to buy yours anon?
$GME - February Runup Update #2 & Possibility of an extra earlyHere's some non standard TA otherwise known as: "This isn't TA, your resistance/supports are wrong m8"
The stock is going to start running around the 17'th - 23'rd of Feb. The run may last only until the 23'rd or may continue until the 02'nd of March where the OPEX/Option Clearing cycle ends.
I've found indications of the possibility of an early run just like in November on Nov 3. The indications are based on GME swaps expiring 9 of Feb which also coincide with Ryan Cohen's standstill agreement ending.
Looking in the past, there were similar swaps expiring for Nov 12 ish. No swaps were found for the previous runs of Feb 2021, May 2021 and August 2021. This leads me to believe there's a possibility we might run around the 2'nd or 3'rd of February 2022 with a duration until the 9'th of Feb Max. After this we'll experience the regular quarterly opex run down from 14-17 of Feb and then a run up on Feb 17-23 maybe up to 04 March.
The chart i've posted here describes all scenarios i've mentioned above.
TLDR: Basically this is the bottom, so get March 04 near the money calls at around +5-15% from the current underlying spot price, or if you're a bit smooth, basically if the price of GME is anywhere between $95-$100, then get $110-$120 strike calls expiring March 04 as these are the optimal to let you reap the max benefit whether the price runs early or later around Feb 22. I don't like those Feb 25's because the theta on those is too steep. Additionally the March 04's near the money as i've mentioned are almost always slightly mis-priced / on sale by around 15-23% off their theoretical correct price as long as volatility isn't going nuts when you buy them during the day.
The trade:
If you're a regular trader, basically buy GME at the current price & set a PT of $175-$185 as a safety place. Anything more is a bonus.
If you're an ape, just buy shares, hodl, drs or whatever.
If you're a degenerate who loves options, $110-$120 March 04 calls are great.
If you're a proper degenerate who wants max profit & risk, then consider $175 Feb 04 or Feb 11 expiries for the possible initial run and or & $175 strikes expiring Feb 25.
I don't post on Reddit anymore because people there are crazy. There is money to be made in GME regardless of what longs and shorts want and they are in the form of the OPEX ineficiencies mentioned above & previously in my reddit posts.
GME: THE PRICE IS WRONG / CYCLE THEORY, WHY WE WILL MAKE A RUN First and foremost, credit to u/PWNWTFBBQ
Not financial or sexual advice.
GameStop runs on 90-day cycles, 17 day run-up, and is followed by a big red candle. If this cycle theory proves itself correct, the following dates we should expect a run-up would be:
Jan 26 - Feb 22
April 25 - May 16
July 22 - Aug 10
Oct 20 - Nov 10
Gamestop - MOASSIdea for GME:
- The MOASS is here.
- There is a global shortage of both US dollars and high quality collateral for debt (10-year US Treasury bonds). Why would the dollar be rising despite the high CPI prints? It's simple. To borrow, one must have collateral.
- CS's Zoltan Pozsar explained in Nov. 19th Global Money Dispatch that currently, this demand is caused by Europe. "the ECB bough too much , reducing net supply via QE, and it topped it up with TLTROs... This week, the collateral shortage in Europe spilled over into the FX swap market: on Tuesday it became cheaper for a euro deposit holder to pay a premium and swap euros for dollars and buy Treasury bills with those dollars than to buy German bills."
- While I won't go into it, it is speculated that Citadel has a great short exposure to 10-year US Treasury bonds, through their repo market arm, Palafox. May or may not be true, but it is evident that someone (probably every hedge fund) is short USTs and they are also short GME. GME by extension is a bond market volatility proxy. As long as the correlations hold, it can be traded.
- What is also true is that Large and Small speculators are record short 10 Year T Note futures, while commercials are record long. Bond market volatility is reached a level where VIX was trading at 50+ previously and is higher now than what it spiked to during GME's first squeeze to 500. Somebody is about to get to get blown up.
Bond Market Options Volatility (MOVE) leads GME by 15 days. Timing of MOASS, Dec.3:
GME losing correlation with IWM and gaining correlation with VIX and USTs (new regime):
You might get one more smash down (I expect a smash in bonds in a risk parity event before a squeeze), but I am confident this is about to happen. I'm not even going to give a price target, but it's over 4 digits for certain.
When I did analysis for my AMC trade, I correctly read the psychology of the large market participants, after reading into it more and connecting the dots, turns out they were BlackRock and Citadel:
If you are short GME, do you even know who is on the other side of your trade? Retail "apes"? No no no!
BlackRock, who manages the US assets of foreign sovereigns, and ICBC China, with a 100% correlation to GME. China is about to enter an easing phase:
GLHF
- DPT
Causation always produces a correlation. Liquidity takes time to flow through the economic machine.
Let's play the GaME!GameStop broke this triangle 📐 up, and I think there is chance for run to 605 USD and even higher. Just bought the pullback to the BUY level, which is previous local high now acting as support. Let the game begin! 🎮
ENTRY : previous local high @ 189.33
SL : local low @ 136.5
TARGET : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY - SL) @ 605
RRR : 8
INVALIDATION : when SL level hit
Like👍 & Enjoy🍿!
#GAMESTOP #GME #STOCKS #WALLSTREETBETS #WSB #SHORTSQUEEZE
GME Approaching Big Support!First of all, I probably will not trade this because it's GME, but I MIGHT...
Lots of confluence around the $105 area - two seperate macro .786 fibs levels, a monthly close, and the VAL of the whole range, plus $100 psychological level. I would normally look to trade a setup like this up to the POC and then the VAH. Stoploss tbd by structure - data doesn't exist yet.
$GME - February Runup UpdateSame idea as before. Runup is February 22, but there's gonna be an additional runup on February 7-9 for reasons i won't discuss yet. I think the chart i'm displaying here could be quite accurate for the next GME runup.
For now i'm making this as a placeholder/proof for when the time comes as well as a test for this theory for myself.
Warning: The 22 Feb Runup can start as early as Feb 17 and can last for 1 day or a few days and may end on Feb 23 or go on for longer.
Warning: The Feb 7-9 runup is still theoretical and waiting to be proved.
Not financial advice. Because literally i'm not a financial advisor and this is literally not financial advice and you should be able to make your own financial decisions. Does this even have to be said? Yes...
GME to $50 SupportUpdating monthly chart trade from before. We have hit the first monthly MA support. I think its inevitable we go lower to the lower MA for support which coincidentally aligns with the $50 resistance range that may now become support. Judging by the timeline it could be another year before any kind of MOASS, which is good for any long term holders. Good luck!
Game Over for GME? GameStop - Short Term - We look to Sell a break of 118.66 (stop at 132.19)
Rallies continue to attract sellers. Daily signals are bearish. Trading volume is increasing. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We look to set shorts in the early trade.
Our profit targets will be 62.74 and 42.00
Resistance: 160.00 / 200.00 / 250.00
Support: 100.00 / 50.00 / 40.00
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GME vs GEXYou may have heard about this greek called Gamma. If you haven’t, I’m not going to talk about it much except to tell you that it's important.
I told you I would do something special for my 1yr GME anniversary, so I took to coding up a Gamma exposure tool (GEX) that I will be giving out for free once I get it tested next week.
The tool is simple enough but will provide GME traders with some important levels. The levels are based on Gamma exposure from options and identifying where gamma flips from negative to positive.
It's nothing new, but access to an entire Options Chain and being able to calculate the gamma exposure is something most alpha providers hide behind a paywall as some secret sauce to get you to pay for a subscription.
That's not me. I think all information regarding a stock should be accessible to everyone, particularly the less wealthy traders like us gamers.
Why is GEX important?
Gamma exposure is important because it acts as a driving force for underlying assets. That is to say, when a market maker's exposure to an asset is overly positive, the dealers will sell into a rally and buy into dips, inversely, when the mm is negative gamma, they will buy into a rally and sell into a dip.
It’s safe to assume once the mm exposure to that asset is negative like it is with GME below 140 gamma flip, you’re likely to get more volatility.
Usually this gamma zero acts as a type of support for an asset, but if you have been living under a rock, you may not have heard the shifting sentiment in the marketplace moving to a more risk-off appetite.
It's why you see shares of VIAC rising and our beloved GME breaking the gamma zero support and turning much more negative.
The bad news is, there is a rather large negative exposure to GME at 100, something to the tune of -1.6million that seems to be the likely drawdown.
I still need to verify my gamma exposure numbers and make sure I’m not missing anything. Something tells me the ETFs that include GME may offer some more gamma exposure I’m not seeing.
Either way, next week I will open-source the code and publish the tool/data to be verified. I will then attempt to make sense out of ETFs affecting this recent drawdown.
As always, not financial advice.
I’m a meat popsicle and…