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11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision. While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck). ⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located. ⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925. ⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election. The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry. There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV. Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this. ⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too. 10/28 SPX 10/21 SPX 10/14 SPX 10/28 QQQ 10/14 QQQ
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Weekly GEX levels of QQQNASDAQ:QQQ began the week in positive territory at Monday’s open, with the current gamma profile projecting positive momentum through Friday as the price is positioned above the HVL level (496). Notably, below this HVL level is a substantial "vacuum" area, so if the High Volatility Level (496) fails to hold, we could quickly see a drop to 485, where Gamma Walls provide PUT resistance at 485, 482.5, and 480. Key levels to note are: Highest Call Wall / Call Resistance (500): This level, with the highest positive Net GEX value, may act as a significant resistance. Price momentum may slow upon reaching this level, as positive gamma stabilizes the movement. However, if it breaks through, 505 and then 510 could come into play. 2nd Highest Call Wall (510) and 3rd Highest Call Wall (505): These additional resistance levels could present further obstacles as QQQ’s price moves up, both showing high positive gamma activity that may limit upward momentum. PUT Gamma Wall / Put Support (480): This is the most important support level, where negative gamma presence may buffer price drops. However, if this level is breached downward, declines could accelerate. 2nd Put Wall (485) and 3rd Put Wall (482) : These levels may serve as additional support points, providing buffers in case of further price declines.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TanukiTrade
GEX levels of SPX for Weekly Option TradersAlthough the SPX is currently trading within a relatively neutral positive gamma range, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the week might hold. This week, SPX is moving between critical resistance and support levels, which are showing significant options activity. The 5900 level is the key CALL resistance, acting as the gamma wall for the next 7 days (7DTE) . This suggests that as long as the price remains below this level, it will face strong resistance in moving higher. If the market breaks through this level, it could signal a bullish breakout, leading to increased turbulence. 🟨 DETAILED VIEW: In case of a breakout, keep an eye on the second weaker CALL wall at 5925 and the third weaker CALL wall at 5940, which are the next potential resistance levels once the market moves past the 5900 gamma wall. These levels could play a pivotal role in the price’s upward movement and indicate further buying pressure. 🔶 HVL Level and Gamma Environment: 5830 The 5830 level represents the High Volatility Level (HVL), which determines whether we are in a positive or negative gamma environment. If SPX closes below this level, we enter the negative gamma zone, which could lead to increased market volatility. This could result in sharper price movements during the week if this level does not hold. In that case, the PUT supports come into focus. The 5750 level marks the strongest PUT support, providing substantial downward support for the market. However, before reaching this level, it’s important to consider the emerging PUT wall at 5765, which may stop the price from falling lower. This could act as an intermediate support, slowing or even halting a decline before the 5750 level comes into play. 🔶 Implied Volatility and Time-Based Strategic Opportunities NOW The decrease in implied volatility, as shown by the IV and IVx indicators, signals a calmer market environment. Based on IV rank and average IV levels, volatility is running lower, which presents good opportunities for various spread strategies, especially time spreads that can be optimized between the 11/01 and 11/04 time frame. Key levels above could fuel further market movement throughout the week if a breakout occurs. CALL/PUT gamma levels on the options chain strongly outline the potential resistance and support levels, but these levels can change dynamically, especially if SPX breaks through the 5900 level. 🔶 SPX Key Levels This Week: 5900 CALL resistance – Main gamma wall, strong resistance. 5925 and 5940 – Second and third weaker CALL walls, offering additional resistance if broken. 5830 HVL – Key level determining the gamma environment. 5765 PUT wall – Emerging intermediate PUT support, which could slow a decline. 5750 PUT support – Strongest PUT gamma wall and support. Keep these levels in mind throughout the week, as they will likely influence market movements and the volatility environment. By applying the right options strategies, this information can help you structure profitable positions.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
5
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves. However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level. 🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining. The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down. 🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions. 🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance? 🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements: 🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve. 🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.) 🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. ⅀ SPX Summary The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
SP:SPXLong
by TanukiTrade
Options Blueprint Series [Advanced]: Reverse Time Iron Condors1. Introduction In today’s advanced options trading discussion, we introduce a unique structure—"Reverse Time Iron Condors"—using Corn Futures Options (ZCH2025). This sophisticated strategy leverages options with different expiration dates, allowing traders to position themselves for a potential market move in the mid-term. The Corn market has recently shown signs of slowing momentum, as indicated by technical indicators such as ADX (Average Directional Index) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) applied to ADX. Our analysis shows that RSI applied to ADX is oversold, and RSI is approaching a key crossover signal that could confirm an increase in volatility. Given this setup, the Reverse Diagonal Iron Condor (a.k.a. Reverse Time Iron Condor) structure aligns well with the market’s current conditions over two expiration cycles. CME Product Specs (Corn Futures ZCH2025) Contract Size: 5,000 bushels per contract. Tick Size: 1/4 cent per bushel (0.0025), or $12.50 per tick. Required Margin: USD $1,200 per contract at the time of producing this article. 2. Market Setup & Analysis To understand why the Reverse Time Iron Condor is suitable for Corn Futures right now, let’s delve into the technical picture: ADX Analysis: Corn Futures’ Daily ADX has been dropping, indicating weakening momentum. This signals a period of consolidation, where price volatility remains low. RSI of ADX: By applying the RSI to the ADX values, we notice that ADX is now oversold, suggesting that momentum could soon pick up. RSI Crossover: The RSI is nearing a crossover above its moving average, confirming that a new impulse in momentum would be in the process of potentially occur. This technical picture suggests the market could stay in a low-volatility phase for now but break out in the near future. Based on this technical setup, the strategy we present is to capitalize on the short-term consolidation while preparing for a potential breakout, using the Reverse Diagonal Iron Condor structure. 3. Strategy Breakdown: Reverse Diagonal Iron Condor The Reverse Diagonal Iron Condor is a unique options structure where you sell longer-term options and buy shorter-term options. This setup generates a negative theta position, meaning time decay works slightly against the trader. However, the strategy compensates for this through positive gamma, which accelerates the delta as the underlying market moves, especially during a breakout. This combination allows the position to profit from a sharp move in either direction, with relatively limited cost. For this trade on Corn Futures (ZCH2025), the structure is as follows: Sell 450 Call (21 Feb 2025), Buy 455 Call (27 Dec 2024): This creates a short diagonal call spread, where the February short call decays slowly due to the longer expiration, and the December long call acts as a short-term hedge against an early rise in prices. Sell 410 Put (21 Feb 2025), Buy 405 Put (27 Dec 2024): Similarly, this forms a short diagonal put spread. The February short put is subject to less time decay, while the December long put protects against a sharp downward move before its expiration. Key Mechanics: Time Decay (Theta): Although the trade has negative theta, the impact of time decay is relatively small because the February options decay slowly due to their longer-term expiration. Gamma and Delta: The positive gamma in this position means that if a breakout occurs before the December expiration, the delta will increase significantly, making the trade more sensitive to price changes. This could more than offset the negative theta, allowing the trade to capture large gains from a significant price move. Objective: The goal is for Corn prices to experience an impulsive move (either up or down) before the December 2024 expiration of the long legs, allowing the positive gamma to boost the position’s delta. If this breakout occurs, the potential profits from the price move will likely surpass the small losses due to time decay. The structure is ideal for markets in consolidation that may be on the verge of a volatility surge, as the falling ADX and oversold RSI suggest. This strategy is particularly well-suited for Corn Futures (ZCH2025), given the current technical setup, where a near-term consolidation phase might be followed by an explosive move in either direction. The success of this trade relies on a timely breakout occurring before the December expiration, after which the position may need adjustment to manage risk. 4. Risk Profile at Initial Setup The initial risk profile for this trade reminds us of an Iron Condor risk profile, with the best case being a range-bound corn market between 410 and 450. Important Consideration: This risk profile does not reflect the final outcome because the trade spans two different options cycles. The December options will expire first, which means adjustments may be necessary after that expiration to maintain protection. Note on Options Simulation Tool: It's important to mention that the options simulation tool provided by TradingView is currently still in its beta stage. While it offers useful insights for analyzing and visualizing options strategies, traders should be aware that certain features may be limited, and results might not always reflect all real-world conditions. For a more comprehensive analysis, it is recommended to complement the simulation with other tools such as the Options Strategy Simulator available in the CME Group website. 5. Optional Trade Management After December Expiration Once the December 2024 long options expire, you will face two possible scenarios. In both cases, managing the February 2025 short options is crucial: o Scenario 1: Corn Prices Remain Range-Bound: If Corn futures continue to trade within the 450-410 range, the December long options will expire worthless. In this case, the strategy shifts to managing the February short options, which will benefit from time decay. Monitor the market closely and consider whether to buy new protection for the remaining February short options. o Scenario 2: Corn Prices Break Out: If Corn futures break above 450 or below 410 prior to the December expiration, the February short options could expose the position to significant risk if we allow them to expire. One potential action is to purchase new long options within the range (for example, buy the 445 call and the 415 put using 21 February 2025 expiration). While many other actions could be valid, a common and probably the simplest approach could be to close all legs in time for a likely profit at this moment. 6. Risk Management Effective risk management is essential in any options strategy, especially one as advanced as a Reverse Diagonal Iron Condor. Below are key points to ensure this trade stays within your risk tolerance: o Position Sizing: Given the complexity of this trade, ensure that the size of your position fits within your overall risk management plan. Avoid over-leveraging, as unexpected price movements can lead to significant losses once the December long options expire. o Monitor Key Levels: Keep an eye on the 450 strike (resistance) and 410 strike (support). If Corn breaks these levels early in the trade, consider closing the position or making adjustments. o Volatility Management: The success of this trade hinges on an increase in market momentum. 7. Conclusion The Reverse Diagonal Iron Condor is an advanced options strategy where the long positions have a shorter expiration than the short positions, creating a negative theta position. Instead of benefiting from time decay as in a traditional Iron Condor, this strategy is designed to take advantage of expected volatility increases over time. By selling longer-term options and buying shorter-term options, traders are positioning themselves for a volatility breakout or significant price movement before the near-term options expire. In this setup, time decay has a limited negative impact on the position, but the key advantage lies in the positive gamma. This means that if a breakout occurs, the position’s delta will accelerate, potentially outpacing the slight negative effect of theta. Traders should closely monitor the December expiration, as the success of the trade hinges on the anticipated large move happening before this date. This structure is particularly well-suited for Corn Futures (ZCH2025), given the falling ADX and RSI, which suggest a potential momentum shift. The strategy is designed to benefit from a significant price move with limited cost, assuming the breakout occurs within the timeframe of the December long options. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZCH2025Education
by traddictiv
Demand on OilOil is presenting to us clear (marked with green rectangle) demand zone presented on chart. Yesterday there were multiple strong demand signals there identified real-time by Scanner. This zone becomes still valid, especially as it's placed within today's Balance Zone (between Gamma +0.25 and Gamma -0.25). Following price structure, it is supposed to retest demand zone from top and continue up move. Alternative scenario would expect to observe on chart consolidation in demand zone, as it's marked by market as fair price area.
NYMEX:CL1!
by skyline-trader
SPX 30min Chart with GEX Levels & Major Piviot pointsAnalyzing the major pivots in a top-down approach in the context of trading volatility, and aligning them with TradingVolatility's calculated cumulative gamma levels, particularly focusing on the highest three expiration strikes, offers valuable insights into market dynamics and risk management. 1.Top-Down Approach: The top-down approach involves starting with a broad view of the market and then drilling down into specific details. In the context of trading, this might mean beginning with a macroeconomic analysis, industry analysis, or a broad market overview before delving into individual securities or specific trading strategies. This approach helps traders gain a comprehensive understanding of the overall market conditions. 2. Major Pivots: Major pivots refer to critical points or levels in the market that often act as turning points for price action. These could include support and resistance levels, trendlines, or significant historical price points. Traders use these pivots to make decisions regarding entry and exit points in their trading strategies. 3. TradingVolatility's Calculated Cumulative Gamma Levels: TradingVolatility appears to be a tool or platform that provides data and insights related to options trading, including the calculation of cumulative gamma levels. Gamma represents the rate of change in an option's delta concerning a change in the underlying asset's price. Cumulative gamma levels can indicate the overall sensitivity of a portfolio to changes in the underlying asset's price. Traders use this data to assess risk exposure and to make informed decisions. 4. Highest Three Expiration Strikes: Options have various expiration dates and strike prices. The highest three expiration strikes refer to the options contracts with the most significant open interest or trading activity. These are often the ones that have the most influence on market dynamics and can be crucial in managing options portfolios. Now, let's put these elements together: By employing a top-down approach, traders start with a macro-level analysis of the market. They then identify major pivots, which could be key support and resistance levels, trendlines, or important historical price levels. This step helps traders establish the broader context for their trading decisions. Next, traders use TradingVolatility's calculated cumulative gamma levels. These levels offer insights into the sensitivity of their options portfolios to changes in the underlying asset's price. By aligning these gamma levels with the highest three expiration strikes, traders can gain a clearer picture of their risk exposure and the potential impact of major market movements on their portfolios. For instance, if the cumulative gamma levels are high near these critical pivots, it suggests that options traders have substantial exposure to potential price swings in the underlying asset. This information can guide traders in making decisions about risk management, such as adjusting their positions, implementing hedges, or selecting strategies that align with their risk tolerance. In summary, a top-down approach, combined with a focus on major pivots and cumulative gamma levels of the highest three expiration strikes, provides traders with a well-rounded perspective on market conditions and risk exposure, helping them make more informed trading decisions and manage their portfolios effectively.
AMEX:SPY
by thebearfib
2
EOSE Short Squeeze Potential !EOSE went down this month from $5.70 to $1.24, the CEO accessing a short sellers attack on the stock. Now considering the pre-market volume, and the fact that the stock is already up 13%, I believe it has a short squeeze potential to the next resistances of $3.30, then $4.90. Eos Energy Enterprises designs, manufactures, and markets zinc-based energy storage solutions for utility, commercial and industrial, and microgrid markets in the United States. T he company's flagship product is the Eos Znyth DC system, a battery that can be used as an alternative to Li-ion batteries. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:EOSELong
by TopgOptions
2
⚖️OPTIONS TRADING: What are the Greeks?The Greeks are a set of mathematical measures used in options trading to assess and quantify various factors that influence the price and behavior of options. 📌 VEGA : Vega is a measure of how much an option's premium will change in response to a 1% change in implied volatility. Implied volatility represents the market's expectation of the underlying security's future movement. When implied volatility is high, options tend to be more expensive, and when it is low, options are cheaper. Vega is particularly influential for options with longer expiration dates, as volatility has a greater impact on their prices. As an option approaches expiration, Vega decreases, while it increases as the underlying security moves closer to the strike price. Essentially, Vega is highest when the option is at-the-money and decreases as it goes out-of-the-money or in-the-money. 📌GAMMA Gamma, represents the rate of change between an option's Delta and the price of the underlying asset. Higher Gamma values indicate that even small price changes in the underlying stock or fund can cause significant changes in the option's Delta. At-the-money options have the highest Gamma because their Deltas are most sensitive to underlying price movements. For instance, if XYZ is priced at $100.00 and a XYZ $100.00 call option is considered at-the-money, any price movement in either direction will push the option into either in-the-money or out-of-the-money territory. This high sensitivity to stock movement is reflected in the option's Gamma, making Gamma higher for at-the-money options. 📌THETA Theta represents the theoretical daily decay of an option's premium, assuming all other factors remain constant. As time passes, options gradually lose value, and this loss is known as time value decay. The decay of time value is more significant as the expiration date approaches, particularly for near-the-money options. Theta does not behave linearly; instead, it accelerates as expiration nears. A higher Theta indicates that the option's value will decay more rapidly over time. Short-dated options, especially those near-the-money, tend to have higher Theta because there is greater urgency for the underlying asset to move in a favorable direction before expiration. Theta is negative for long (purchased) positions and positive for short (sold) positions, regardless of whether the option is a call or a put. 📌RHO Rho measures an option's sensitivity to changes in the risk-free interest rate and is expressed as the amount of money the option will gain or lose with a 1% change in interest rates. Changes in interest rates can affect an option's value because they impact the cost of carrying the position over time. This effect is more significant for longer-term options compared to near-term options. Higher stock prices and longer time until expiration generally lead to greater sensitivity to interest rate changes, resulting in higher absolute Rho values. Rho is positive for long calls (the right to buy) and increases with the stock price. It is negative for long puts (the right to sell) and approaches zero as the stock price increases. Rho is positive for short puts (the obligation to buy) and negative for short calls (the obligation to sell). 📌DELTA Delta is a measure that estimates how much an option's value may change with a $1 increase or decrease in the price of the underlying security. Delta values range from -1 to +1, where 0 indicates minimal movement of the option premium relative to changes in the underlying stock price. Delta is positive for long stocks, long calls, and short puts, which are considered bullish strategies. Conversely, Delta is negative for short stocks, short calls, and long puts, which are bearish strategies. A Delta of +1 is assigned to long stock shares, while a Delta of -1 is assigned to short stock shares. An option's Delta can range from -1 to +1, and the closer it is to +1 or -1, the more sensitive the option premium is to changes in the underlying security. 👤 @QuantVue 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Editors' picks
Education
by QuantVue
9
JHQDX has an uphill climb to close at the Call JHQDX Jan Roll was predicted well ahead of this idea, but I used some chartArt to emphasize it's predictive capabilities. Quants on fintwit still reject my claims. if Modelling 1-6 months out down to the strike and day wasn't enough. Or predicting the bottom with a price target. For April Roll my indicators are telling me the Call is a to heavy to climb in only 4 days so I'm going to have to predict we find a path to the more neutral area of Zero Gamma of 4050 which also happened back in July 2022.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
3
What is GEX?Gex is short for Gamma Exposure. I started tracking gamma exposure over a year ago. In fact I posted an idea with a really good explanation idea of gamma exposure but the idea was banned and I never got around to reposting. So many private messages asking me to explain GEX, I decided to repost the banned post without the restricted content in it. If you want the restricted content, send me a message and I will send you the link ==== Original Idea posted March 6th 2022 ======== I finished updating the simple GEX tool. This tool is for educational purposes only and gives a very basic/naive overview of gamma exposure for any Ticker. So What is GEX? GEX stands for Gamma EXposure. Options are derivatives of financial assets that give investors more.. options. Gamma is the rate of change in an options delta per 1-point move in the underlying asset's price. When someone buys an option, there is typically a market maker (dealer) that needs to sell that option to you. Because the dealer does not want to take directional risk on the other side of the option, they hedge the option by buying or selling the underlying asset. As the price changes, the dealer must continuously make changes to that hedge to remain delta neutral. Gamma Exposure, in this tool's case, Naive Gamma Exposure is an estimated measurement of gamma exposure that a dealer has taken on based on the full options chain's open interest. It is an estimate because nobody really knows if an option's open interest was bought or sold to a dealer. Negative\Positive Gamma is hedged differently by dealers. If a dealer is positive gamma they will sell the rally (price up) and buy the dips (price down). Positive gamma creates a supportive and less volatile, more liquid market. If a dealer is negative gamma they will buy the rally and sell the dips. Negative gamma creates more selling pressure and more volatility, an illiquid market. Zero Gamma or Gamma Flip is the assumed point at which dealers would flip from negative gamma exposure to positive. When the dealer is positive gamma, the Zero Gamma strike will usually act as support. When the dealer is negative gamma, the Zero Gamma strike acts as resistance. GEX can measure individual asset gamma exposure but is more effective at measuring overall market indexes such as SPX and NDX. GEX shouldn’t be used as a directional measurement, but more of a volatility indicator. Notional GEX is the dealers notional (total dollars) exposure in 1% move in the underlying assets price. If SPX is -20B for example, dealers will have to buy 20 billion in underlying shares for every 1% move up, or sell 20 billion for every 1% move down. Option Quotes are delayed by 15 minutes from the open and close of the Regular Trading Hours. Disclaimer: The GEX tool is meant to be used for educational purposes only. It is NOT meant to be used for/as financial advice. Use at your own risk. The reason I included the JHEQX HEF Pin is because of how the different expirations effect the markets at different times. The general idea I like to emphasize in my naive understanding of these market mechanics is TIME. Notice in the following ideas from the past 3 months all have the 4165 HEF Pin in the forecast. This is only possible by calculating the Gamma Exposure of the options sold to JPM and making some assumptions (next time).
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
50
Intraday ES 22nd March - Gamma + Options + Darkpool analysisGEX: Positive Price above Gamma Flip Point - decreased Volatility Structure of Gamma: Mostly negative, spread across multiple strikes Expected Range: 3991 - 4077 Most probable end-of-day outcome: Price close above most negative gamma spikes (3990, 3940, 3840). Therefore Key Support is at 3940. Gamma Spikes chart from my AI Data Analysis software Yesterday's session was skyrocketing and honestly despite observing incoming Supply to the market near Resistance, price reacted weak to this area and after couple of hours continued to increase. As the result, we fulfilled most probable end-of-day outcome, but plan wasn't met accordingly to my expectations. Well, this is market magic 🙂 For today's session, we have similar expected end-of-day outcome where Support at 3940 is below bottom level of expected trading range at 3991. In general, on 3990 we see gamma spike, so this level works as significant support too. After climbing up, any supports are much lower than level of current price so seems the market can start shifting into Bullish sentiment. It's too early to confirm that, but something is happening. Let's keep observing. From Resistance perspective, we have spike at 4040. Plan for today's trades I marked on second chart attached to analysis. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by skyline-trader
3
S&P 500 200-DayAt a critical juncture while hanging on a pivot for both 200D and zero gamma. The 200D regression trend turned up positive as the tail is now at the peak of aug bull rally. Total S&P 500 gamma is neutral around zero gamma / 4k. No vol events and no flows from options means lower daily distributions. Bulls - Slow grind up here into CPI. - Low CPI/PPI Only on Mar14/15. - VANNA/CHARM flows to pick back up - Target is ~405 JHEQX Call Pin Bears - Bears have not had a lot of help from any negative gamma - A turn below 200D would give the acceleration lower needed to go negative - Target is JHEQX Put at ~363
AMEX:SPY
by SPYvsGME
6
21D DDOI Gamma ExposureThis chart is intended for other idea articles but I thought it was interesting enough for its own idea. I'm not allowed to post my website, but you can find it in my profile it contains the data I used for charting this. 1) Naive Gex - Is the total option chain of a stock across all expirations. In other words the gamma exposure assumes customer is always long call short put meaning the dealer is short call and long put. Not very helpful, but it gives you the idea of the total value of options out there. It is based on CBOE delayed data. 2) 21DMA of dealer directional open interest (DDOI) gamma exposure across all option chains of the S&P 500. This data is mapped from my website into Trading View. There is no way I found to get options pricing data for all of option chains, so tracing is the only way I can get this data into trading view. What you can take from this data is simple. It is a measure of liquidity in the entire S&P options data. I labeled what type of liquidity regime we are in. To those who are predicting a crash during positive liquidity environments. Don't get caught to short. If you manage a portfolio properly then I doubt you will need to worry about a market crash. I see 2 scenarios of a market crash happening at the bottom in stocks and bonds. 1) It's short lived (~15-20%) and corrected via interest rate decreases and changes to SLR / ON Reverse Repo. Long enough to see who has been swimming naked, but not break Central banks. 2) a crash so big it collapses central banks and US has not choice but to change to CBDC (the "great reset" scenario) If you manage a portfolio properly, you wouldn't listen to any advice I have for doing so anyway. and you are prepared for the scenario 1. if scenario 2 happens it will break society and USD and everybody finds out they only own fugazzi (nothing). Realestate, hard assets like gold, silver, food, water. oil will sky rocket. Throughout all the selling last week the entire S&P did not go negative gamma. This is positive market conditions. Next week is considered a very large window of weakness in options event volatility and expiration. I expect volatility next week and we won't know the true outcome until after OPEX. Have you ever heard the phrase don't fight the fed. Well in this case, don't fight the fed liquidity. I think we're at that critical juncture the next 3 months and I will be the first waving red flags. A slight flinch in PPI not meeting expectations was just repositioning for CPI miss and FOMC 75bps hike. To be clear on my position. 1) I think PPI is a bad measure to inflation. so many factors. I only track for event vol and how dealers position around events. 2) CPI will likely be same as PPI. Lower but beat expectations. 3) FOMC - no rate hike. Hold for more data. Price stability... I believe Elon Musk. He Believes Cathy Woods My instinct tells me that ARKK is at its tipping point now and more losses on stocks like TSLA will cause liquidity issues. The amount of selling after Archegos would pale in comparison the financial storm of a larger hedge fund going under. And I could be completely wrong. It is easy to call a trend change while in the trend. It is incredible difficult to build economic models that identify when a trend will change or when a market will crash. But I'm trying. So before you come clown bashing my work, at least provide some of your own information or data to backup your claims. I have used these models of liquidity measurement to predict precisely when trends will change. over and over and over and over again. TLDR; Dealer Directional Gamma Exposure is trending positive. Lower CPI + Fed Rate Pause will increase liquidity. Increased Liquidity will lower volatility through Christmas for a Christmas rally. If no pause and higher CPI then I will buy OTM puts and go out for pizza This trend needs to break because lower lows for this expiry or next (quad witching) will likely cause a liquidity crisis. A Taper Tantrum. The Big One. Final Thoughts. I am an Optimist, a Protagonist, an Innovator, Engineer, Artist, but far from ever joking around except to turn a frown upside down. Thanks to all who support my ideas. If the white rabbit is what you seek. The trendsetter xyz is the key.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SPYvsGME
17
Tip toe around a Christmas Rally this yearSo here we are not to many deviations away from the last post on Hedged Equity funds being firmly in positive gamma territory. Overall gamma for the S&P 500 options chain has been positive 15 straight trading days. This indicates a 0.20% daily distribution along with a VIX that continues to compress into 2023. However, there are indicators suggesting VIX is now oversold and may test higher ranges over the next month. This would reflect a rug pull in December for JHEQX reset at the end of Dec. There is only 1 man capable of such a rug pull. Here are some economic event dates to prepare for. Nov 30th Jerome Powell speech at 2pm Dec 9th is PPI (before CPI may hint to next headline CPI) Dec 13th is CPI Dec 13/14 FOMC
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
5
Towel stock will have a glorious bounce. Good entry area now.OBV hasn’t even came close to falling back to its previous lows before BBBY’s run up in July/August. In fact.. OBV hasn’t even broken down resistance.. it’s still holding a pretty strong bullish signal and share price is below previous lows in July.. Certainly share price is undervalued on the technical side. Check out my ideas on GME because these stocks tie together in my personal opinion. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
NASDAQ:BBBYLong
by Trexarch
2
(UPDATED)Revisiting my prior theory on creation of FTDs thru TTTInstead of explaining why I believe GameStop still has immense value, I am just going to make an update to my previous 3 posts on creation of “Failure to Delivers” through SWAPs and the short ETF, “TTT.” Please check out my other posts if this type of stuff interests you, it is brand new information that just hasn’t been picked up by anyone yet, the correlation between TTT & GME is blatantly painful to look at, considering the amount of people who ignore it. I strongly believe TTT is being manipulated to then also manipulate GME.. We’ve watched GME follow closer to SPY on intraday trading than apple, Microsoft, or even amazon!! WHY?! Crime is the answer… algorithms.. liquidity grabs.. it’s all one big game in which we will end up victorious this time. Now.. for the reason you are all here.. looking at the updated chart above, you can clearly see that TTT has been going straight parabolic ever since we’ve dipped from over the 40’s.. interesting right?? Around when Mayo Man moved over half a billion dollars for “strategic setups.” BS… my real opinion is the price has been even faker than it has ever been since August 8th. I believe this could potentially be the end game short ladder attack.. Mark my words.. Educate yourselves with my ideas on all of my other posts.. it’s okay if you disagree. DRS TO THE FKN MOOOOOOOOOOOOON NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE IM NOT SELLING
NYSE:GMELong
by Trexarch
5
You ever dance with the devil in the pale moonlight?Last night futures bounced off JHEQX Zero Gamma support. Significance of this level can not be understated. Losing 3585 may find support below from JHQDX long put flipping positive gamma. With VIX at 32 you should be expecting a 2% move a day. I have an alert at 34 VIX as the point where we could see a pop higher. GEX on SPX is -2.5B which implies more volatility to a range of 3% or more. I predicted CPI will be lower because commodities reached a low by the end of Sept. After a lower CPI I expect a rally to close the range on JHQDX long put as a target close for end of October.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
11
Updated Delta/Gamma IndicatorUpdated Delta/Gamma Indicator to include the strikes for the current strategy. You will be able to leave it blank to generate the strikes. You can use the Indicator on ES Futures as it sources SPX and VIX directly. I wanted to show you all the delta accumulation of JHEQX around the first 20 Days (and 20D moving average) The accumulation of delta in the first 20 days is a fairly good leading indicator for where the rest of the quarter is going to go. The reset of the hedge also predicts many tops and bottoms throughout the recent years. Late 2018 & Early 2019 Negative accumulation to expiry, flipped positive, reset and accumulated just over 20D Cause If you zoom out and see look at the volume during the 3 weeks prior to end of quarter (quad witching) . Effect A lot of deltas and gamma roll off after a quad witching. This frees up the indexes just as JHEQX gains strength 3 weeks prior to its end of month expiry. Tiny Update (JHQTX) The smallest and current just rejected the ITM Put. Short Squeezes if 3800 breaks. Mamma Update (JHQDX) Mamma is deep ITM put territory and reaching strongest effects the final 3 weeks prior to expiry. Under 3600 gamma will flip positive (supportive). At 14k contracts, Mamma can not bounce the titanic, but in the past quarters it finds a way to stay out of the money. Expect Momma to try and run up to 3900 in the last 3 weeks of October. This fits in with my idea that the next CPI will print lower and provide a short term bottom for indexes.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
14
Delta and Gamma IndicatorPutting the finishing touches on a delta / gamma indicator. Only outstanding issues is to complete is fixed strike implied volatility. Check FAQ I created here if you have questions about it. The indicator can be configured to reset on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd last business day of the month. The first new day after the reset the new strikes will be calculated. The purpose is to see a visual representation of hedged equity funds put spread collar history. Hedged Equity Fund Reset: EOM Dec, Mar, Jun, Sept Mutual Fund: JHEQX Assets: 15 Billion Contracts: 44.5k Here is the main equity fund collar strategies history. This fund was established in DEC 2013 and grown into one of the largest managed equity funds. I talk a lot about how this fund creates a pinning effect to the market around quarterly expiry. With the history now in full view, you can clearly see a recurring pattern as the largest index in the world follows a put collar through zones of support and volatility. Hedged Equity 2 Fund Reset: EOM Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct Mutal Fund: JHQDX Assets: 5.7 Billion Contracts: 14k This funds reset frequently finds nearly the exact same close from the previous quarter. Hedged Equity 3 Fund Reset: EOM Feb, May, Aug, Nov Mutal Fund: JHQTX Assets: 2.5 Billion Contracts: 7k Not as many contracts but still provide short term support and resistance.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
1
A Put Spread Collars Gamma IndicatorWhat is a Put Spread Collar? A put spread collar is an options strategy used to insure underlying assets from downside while limiting upside. Why would someone use a Put Spread Collar? What is unique about this strategy is the premium is paid for by selling an 5-6% OTM call and selling at 20% OTM put. Selling those 2 options pays for the long put premium. Why do I care about these Put Spread Collars? These strategies are insurance for over 30 billion dollars of assets. A market maker selling this option strategy will not take that risk so they need to constantly dynamically hedge the risk. Dynamically hedging billions of dollars worth of options will cause considerable flows positive and negative in the market. What do you mean 'Flows'? It's not really a flow but you need to understand how a market maker dynamically hedges to get a better picture. For the scope of this indicator I will only use "flows" to describe dealers buying and selling. I'm currently working on an indicator to track dealer flows. est. 2-4 more weeks. When are flows the strongest? Typically flows will be the strongest in the last 3 weeks prior to expiry. Flows will increase and decrease from Implied Volatility depending on gamma direction being positive or negative. Increased gamma is indicated by larger sized bubbles. What is GEX? GEX is short for Gamma Exposure. When a market maker sells an option they are at a direction risk if the underlying price goes up or down. To remain risk free, market makers will buy or sell the underlying the amount of delta of an options contract. Gamma is the delta Change in from the underlying price moving up or down. What is Positive and Negative Gamma? Each bar on the indicator will calculate the Gamma of the total option strategy. This is the amount of delta a dealer will need to hedge per 1 point move in underlying. If the overall gamma is positive, the dealer flows are supportive (i.e. Sells highs, Buys lows). if the overall gamma is negative, the dealer flows add to volatility (i.e. Buys Highs, Sells Lows) Script will be published next week. I still have some issues with fix with implied volatility.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
12