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[01/20] GEX Outlook: Decision, Key Levels and Looming VolatilityLooking at the GEX levels through Friday, we can see that since mid-December, the market has been moving in a slightly downward channel. Above 6000–6025: A call gamma squeeze is expected. Between 5925 and 6000: A sideways “chop zone.” Below 5925: The high-volatility zone begins, with 5800–5850 acting as our major support/resistance level characterized by heavy put dominance. Below that level lies a “total denial zone.” We’ve seen this scenario before—think back to the red candle on December 18, when the price broke below that threshold. This “red zone” is currently around 5800, so below 5925 we can anticipate large-amplitude moves. At this point, the market still does not seem worried about significant volatility. Until Friday, all NETGEX values for every expiration are positive , so market participants are pricing in more of a sideways movement. We haven’t yet seen a big pickup in volatility. I’m not pessimistic, but keep in mind that Trump’s inauguration might usher in a high-volatility period—something the market and many retail traders haven’t experienced in a while. Better safe than sorry.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week Critical Levels Se detailed image below: Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance. Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now. Gamma Conditions Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult. There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies. Summary Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher. Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800. IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum. There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic. Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
Next Big Move: Weekly GEX & Key LevelsWeekly GEX & Key Levels – Options Recap Chop Zone (5850–6055) This range is likely the short-term “parking” area for sideways price action. Expect the market to oscillate here unless a stronger directional catalyst emerges. Gamma ‘Deny Zone’ (Below 5850) Dropping below 5850 can amplify negative gamma effects, potentially fueling a stronger downside move. Watch for increased volatility and momentum if this area is breached. Gamma-Squeeze Breakout Zone (Above 6055) A break above 6055 neutralizes the call gamma wall, potentially triggering a rapid rally (gamma squeeze). Consider bullish option plays if this level is reclaimed and confirmed. Options Perspective IVRank 23.8: Moderately elevated implied volatility (~1–2% potential daily moves). Puts 87%: Significant open interest in PUT positions, especially around 5800–5900 strikes, often acting as a strong support zone. Gamma Flip (~5923): A critical pivot where market maker positioning flips, potentially creating intraday turning points. Practical Strategies Range Trading in the Chop Zone Iron condors, short strangles, or other neutral strategies. Stay alert for any breakout that can quickly move the market beyond this range. Bullish Breakout Above 6055 Consider call debit spreads or bull call spreads to capture a swift upside move. Look for a confirmed break (ideally on higher volume). Bearish Breakdown Below 5850 Hedge with protective puts or put debit spreads if you hold existing long exposure. Negative gamma could accelerate downside momentum. Summary Base Case: Likely consolidation between 5850 and 6055. Upside: Above 6055, a gamma-driven squeeze could rapidly push prices higher. Downside: Below 5850, stronger selling pressure may emerge. Manage risk according to your plan and remain vigilant for any surprise catalysts. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always use proper risk management based on your own trading objectives.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
4
[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX AnalysisNow, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView: It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory , primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day. Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels. IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040. The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies. Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
[GEX] levels for QQQFirst, let’s examine what we see on our chart using options indicators: Summarizing the GEX levels through December 26, we have a strong call wall at around 540. If price can break above and hold that level, it could easily pave the way toward 550. However, if we’re expecting a Christmas selloff after Friday’s close, this bearish assumption might prove worthwhile. This brings up a point that often comes up: “How do I interpret whether the optoins indicator is bullish or bearish?” There’s no such definitive signal! The levels and options metrics show certain conditions, but no one can tell you exactly what will happen next. This is where you need to have a directional hypothesis. Once you have it, the indicators can help you fine-tune your positioning, identify realistic targets, and select viable legs—but they won’t decide your directional stance for you. For example, while everything may look bullish, let’s say you have a contrarian bearish view. Then you can see where it makes sense to position yourself. Test Case Chosen: 8x QQQ Dec 24th – Dec 26th 525 Calendar Put Spread Max Loss: $216 Max Profit: $1,685 PoP: 45% Why not?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TanukiTrade
12/09 Weekly SPX InsightsLast week’s assessment aligned well with the anticipated positive SPX range. The index moved sharply up toward the 6100 area, yet as Friday’s session progressed, the call resistance around 6100 capped further upward momentum. Looking ahead, I have doubts that the previously unbridled optimism will persist. Currently, we find ourselves in a “chop zone,” suggesting that the short-term direction is less clear. In aggregating GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels and examining the landscape a week out, it appears that 6100 remains a strong call resistance level. Meanwhile, the HVL (High Volatility Level) has crept closer to around 6080, placing the market uncomfortably close to a higher-volatility environment. Below 6080, the market may experience increased turbulence, potentially retesting 6035 and then 6000. On the other hand, if the index can break and hold above 6100, an upward gamma squeeze could emerge, pushing prices even higher. Currently, overall GEX sentiment is negative, but the approach toward the HVL zone suggests caution. From these conditions, I’m not expecting a strong, sustained rally in the immediate term. In terms of intraday and short-term dynamics, 0DTE (same-day expiry) sessions and Fridays continue to hold relatively higher positive gamma exposure compared to other days. Volatility indicators: VIX: remains low IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): also low Put Pricing Skew: currently low, although it has begun to show a very slight uptick Key Levels for This Week (for educational reference): Above 6100: Omni-bullish environment Between 6100–6065: Chop zone (directionally uncertain; not ideal for unhedged directional trades) Below 6080: Bearish tilt, with targets around T1: 6035 and T2: 6000 (near the 16-delta OTM put level) On Wednesday, inflation data is scheduled for release. Anticipation alone may drive volatility, so it’s something to keep on the radar for educational scenario planning.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
11/18 Volatility Zones: Gamma Squeeze, Chop, and Support LevelsWeekly GEX Levels for SPX: The SPX analysis from last week’s free newsletter seems to have played out well. If you recall, based on the weekly GEX levels, there were no significant gamma levels below 5950. As soon as the price dropped below that, we saw the anticipated red gap-down to 5850 by Friday. With Friday's move, SPX shifted from a positive NETGEX range to a negative one: Let’s not forget: a negative gamma range means that market makers move in the same direction as retail traders, increasing the likelihood of stronger price movements, regardless of the market’s direction. Until the 5900 HVL level is reclaimed, I don’t expect this to change. As we saw today, there was a nice bounce off this level with a rejection, making it a tough resistance to break. If it does manage to break through, there’s currently a call gamma wall at 5925. Clearing this level could open the door to higher ranges again. While the week is still long, if the market fails to regain stability by Friday, breaking below the major 5850 PUT gamma wall could lead to another rapid move down, similar to last Friday, targeting the 5810–5800 range. Gamma Squeeze Zones for SP:SPX & AMEX:SPY this week: Above 5925: Gamma squeeze zone, where upward momentum can accelerate. Chop Zone: Between 5900 and 5930: Sideways movement expected, with the market consolidating in this range. High Volatility Zone: Below 5900: High volatility zone, indicating increased intensity in market movements. Market Makers Hedging Behavior Shift Zone: Around 5900: A critical zone where market makers may adjust their hedging strategies. Call Resistance: Below 5940: Reduced volatility expected as call resistance limits upward movement. Put Support Levels: Around 5850: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT support level. Between 5810 and 5800: Additional put support levels acting as key supports; if 5850 broken, turbulence is expected. IV and Skew Data: IVR: 16.9 increasing IV Average: 14.9 increasing PUT pricing skew: 31.5%
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
10/28 GEX of SPX for this weekThis week is especially exciting because, on Thursday, we’ll be releasing our automatic GEX level indicator! (Halloween night, yes, very spooky...) Here's a little preview of what’s coming—just a few more days to go, and we can hardly wait! Based on the key aggregated GEX levels valid as of today's market open, we can see that SPX started the week in a positive territory following last week's minor correction. Currently, the gamma profile suggests positive outlooks through Friday as the market opened above the HVL level, which is now at 5820. The primary levels to watch are: Call Wall (5900): This level, with the highest positive Net GEX value, may serve as a strong resistance point this week. As the price approaches this level, upward momentum may slow as market liquidity tends to stabilize movements here. Put Support (5800): This is the key support level where negative gamma presence helps cushion price declines. Should the price dip below this level, moves might accelerate, so it’s worth monitoring movements around 5800. With the gamma profile above the current HVL level (5820), GEX is positive , which can help stabilize the market and support further gains. Observing options market dynamics, this level suggests the direction of momentum, where market participants may anticipate further upside. As we saw last week, this level could mark a point of heightened volatility for SPX! Additional important levels, like the 2nd Call Wall and 2nd Put Wall, can also be seen on the chart, providing potential barriers and support points for price movements throughout the week. Gamma levels are updated multiple times daily and may shift with market moves.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision. While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck). ⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located. ⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925. ⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election. The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry. There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV. Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this. ⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too. 10/28 SPX 10/21 SPX 10/14 SPX 10/28 QQQ 10/14 QQQ
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
Weekly GEX levels of QQQNASDAQ:QQQ began the week in positive territory at Monday’s open, with the current gamma profile projecting positive momentum through Friday as the price is positioned above the HVL level (496). Notably, below this HVL level is a substantial "vacuum" area, so if the High Volatility Level (496) fails to hold, we could quickly see a drop to 485, where Gamma Walls provide PUT resistance at 485, 482.5, and 480. Key levels to note are: Highest Call Wall / Call Resistance (500): This level, with the highest positive Net GEX value, may act as a significant resistance. Price momentum may slow upon reaching this level, as positive gamma stabilizes the movement. However, if it breaks through, 505 and then 510 could come into play. 2nd Highest Call Wall (510) and 3rd Highest Call Wall (505): These additional resistance levels could present further obstacles as QQQ’s price moves up, both showing high positive gamma activity that may limit upward momentum. PUT Gamma Wall / Put Support (480): This is the most important support level, where negative gamma presence may buffer price drops. However, if this level is breached downward, declines could accelerate. 2nd Put Wall (485) and 3rd Put Wall (482) : These levels may serve as additional support points, providing buffers in case of further price declines.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TanukiTrade