Gammalevels — Trading Ideas on TradingView

05/05 SPX Weekly Playbook - GEX Zone Outlook 🔮 What-If Scenarios for This Week – Based on GEX Structure until Firday Last week’s market momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by almost 3%, effectively erasing the price gap left behind on Liberation Day. The index also strung together nine straight days of gains—something we haven’t seen since late 2004. Meanwhile, implied volatility dropped significantly, with the VIX touching its lowest level since the holiday, falling to around 22.5. Several factors seem to have fueled this bullish tone, including a more measured approach from Trump on trade policies and strong quarterly results from major tech names like Microsoft and Meta. Still, the nature of the buying raises questions—was this a thoughtful rotation, or just a broad sweep of optimism? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🔄 Chop Zone: 5650 – 5670 (wide transition zone) 🔹 Gamma Flip: 5615 🔺 Key Call Wall: 5725 (5800 potential shift) 🔻 Key Put Wall: 5500 (5400 major support below) 🔼 Upside Path IF > 5670 → transition cleared → ➡️ 5700 stall / reaction IF > 5725 → call wall breached → ➡️ Path to 5750 / 5775 → stall at 5800 (largest net call OI) IF > 5800 → gamma resistance breaks down → ➡️ 5825/5850 zone opens up 🔽 Downside Path IF < 5615 → gamma flip triggered → ➡️ 5500 = battle zone (massive put wall + high negative GEX) IF < 5500 → negative gamma squeeze likely → ➡️ Stall zone: 5450 → flush to 5400 IF < 5400 → high-volatility regime → ➡️ Possible acceleration to 5375 / 5340 depending on IV spike ⚖️ Neutral Setup IF 5650–5670 holds → dealer hedging = balanced → ➡️ Ideal for non-directional spreads / theta plays ➡️ Wait for breakout confirmation above 5670 or below 5615 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🔍 Final Thoughts We’ve seen a sharp rally since the Trump trade war scare, with barely any meaningful pullback. The market appears to be looking for one—as a breath. Based on current GEX positioning, there’s significantly more downside hedging than upside, especially in the mid-term May expirations. That doesn’t necessarily mean we crash—but it does mean that moves lower can accelerate faster, while upward breakouts may require more energy or time. In this environment, consider: Bearish or neutral spreads (put debit spreads, call credit spreads) Volatility-based strategies Avoiding naked upside trades unless we see a strong reclaim of 5725+ Stay safe and adapt—GEX doesn’t tell direction, but it does tell where the fire might start, beacuse of reflexting to hedging activity.

[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX Analysis Now, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView: It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory , primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day. Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels. IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040. The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies. Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.

[GEX] levels for QQQ First, let’s examine what we see on our chart using options indicators: Summarizing the GEX levels through December 26, we have a strong call wall at around 540. If price can break above and hold that level, it could easily pave the way toward 550. However, if we’re expecting a Christmas selloff after Friday’s close, this bearish assumption might prove worthwhile. This brings up a point that often comes up: “How do I interpret whether the optoins indicator is bullish or bearish?” There’s no such definitive signal! The levels and options metrics show certain conditions, but no one can tell you exactly what will happen next. This is where you need to have a directional hypothesis. Once you have it, the indicators can help you fine-tune your positioning, identify realistic targets, and select viable legs—but they won’t decide your directional stance for you. For example, while everything may look bullish, let’s say you have a contrarian bearish view. Then you can see where it makes sense to position yourself. Test Case Chosen: 8x QQQ Dec 24th – Dec 26th 525 Calendar Put Spread Max Loss: $216 Max Profit: $1,685 PoP: 45% Why not?