Gann Box
Silver Short till Feb 18 then long to 17.2 SI1 target by 10 May The obvious 20-year long wedge pattern has a focus of 10 May at 17.2 - I expect it to break down before then, test higher prices and then crash to $10 levels to complete the medium term downtrend.
The GannBox and Arcs have been very informative for this Silver downtrend (as well as at shorter timescales). Note the way the medium term GannBox meshes with the longterm GannFann.
I've reversed my long as per my previous ideas on this, and expect to reverse my shorts a bit below 15 mid Feb as it consolidates and completes its drop from the 1:1 ray to the 2:1 ray and makes its exuberant false break up.
After the breakout I expect to see a sharp drop reminiscent of the wedge breakout you can see in 2011-2013. Note that that ended with a two year $9-wide ($26 to 36) trading range. We've just completed a two year $2 wide trading range from about $15.75 to $18 and are still experiencing the high volatility following the false break down that ended it (which we've just seen disconfirmed as we've rentered the trading range). But this false break presages the true break coming in May.
I expect the consolidation around the $10 level to take us to September, getting us ready for a new bull market over the next couple of years.
Interesting times for Silver
Longterm ES ChartThis is a monthly chart that shows important relationships in terms of price and time. As we can see, through the 2008 crisis the market plunged almost 60% and saw around 350% increase thereafter, painting an all-time high in September 2018. Currently, the 10-year-cycle is seemingly done and another big selloff in the equity market appears to be zooming. The 25%, 33.33% and 50% areas from the all-time high are potential targets and reversal zones. Selling into strength seems reasonable here.
Monthly View On UKOIL Oil is approaching a potential longterm demand zone as shown in the chart. This chart is squared to the highest selling price of UKOIL, the levels of 1/8ths and 1/3rds are also derived from it. The bearishness is still very much present in this market but usually the best time for longterm accumulation comes with a lot of fear . The next 500 ticks of downside across the oil and oil product futures curve may provide a good longterm reversal trade on energy. Staying tuned for further tells.
CLM2019 Going For 50% Discount From Its Top PriceOil has been selling off violently in light of it being a highly politicised commodity. CLM2019 first saw a 1/3 decline from its recent top value, where it found some support and managed to pull back to around 1/4 discount point from its recent top selling price. Currently, it has broken lower than the 1/3 discount price and is seemingly going for the important 1/2 mid point value some 800 ticks below.