Why Buy LLY?A textbook spike trade... that's why!
Every morning the stock market open gives us opening volatility spikes on the first 30 minute bar. Most are noise but when that rare one comes along that fits my rules AND has multiple matching confluences... it's time to "Strike at the Spike!"
This setup has going for it:
At a 50% Retracement of the recent trend (from November 18 - December 4)
At the top of a Gap Level
At the Volume Profile Point-of-Control for the last year of price action (see below)
With a Spike that my indicator shows >80% ATR Clearance I consider the baseline for a trade; this one is 150% so it definitely fits the rules. I would take a spike if there were only 2 of those matching levels above. Targeting the local high for the first take profit at 834.
Here is the Daily chart for just how key this level is:
Full disclosure: NYSE:LLY is and has been one of my biggest holdings; having owned the stock for over a decade.
Gap
Gold filled the opening gapGold has successfully filled the opening gap and is now backtesting the hourly breakout that originated from the November 14th low. This critical retest of the breakout level serves as a potential turning point. With the gap closed and the backtest in play, the technical structure suggests that downside momentum could soon resume. Based on these factors, I am expecting gold to start its decline from this point...
EURUSD - Do You Trade Gaps?Gaps can be powerful indicators for spotting potential price movements. They often represent areas where market orders overwhelm supply or demand, creating an imbalance.
In this chart, I’ve identified a clear gap (imbalance) on the EUR/USD 1-hour time frame, and I want to share my thoughts on how you can trade them effectively.
Why Gaps Matter:
Liquidity Zones: Gaps often act as magnets for price action. The market loves to "fill" these areas to rebalance orders.
Market Psychology: Gaps represent institutional activity where major players leave their footprint. Recognizing this can give you an edge.
Clear Risk Management: Gaps provide clear levels for stop-loss placement and entry zones, making your trade setups precise.
My Approach to This Gap:
Gap Identification:
On this EUR/USD chart, I spotted an imbalance near the 1.0433 area.
Confluence:
This gap aligns with my premium Fibonacci levels and is located in a significant bullish order block. This strengthens the validity of this setup.
Bias Confirmation:
After the gap formed, the price showed bullish intent, supporting my bias that the market could push higher to mitigate this imbalance zone.
How to Trade Gaps:
Be Patient: Wait for price to return to the gap area before entering trades. Impulsive entries can lead to unnecessary losses.
Combine with Structure: Always ensure gaps align with your broader trend and other technical tools (e.g., Fibonacci, BOS, CHoCH).
Risk Management: Use the gap edges to wdefine tight stop-loss levels and aim for a high reward-to-risk ratio.
Conclusion:
Gaps are not just empty spaces on the chart; they’re signals of what the market intends to do. In this case, if the price revisits the highlighted gap area, I’ll look for further bullish signs before entering a trade.
What are your thoughts on trading gaps? Have you used them in your strategy? Let me know in the comments below!
Review and plan for 21st November 2024Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Target Watch the GapNYSE:TGT Watch the volume profile gap on TGT if it breaks below and buyers move to NYSE:WMT and short sellers step in it had more room to go. Earnings call is critical to them holding this level. Institutional buyers may step out as well. Very poorly managed company. This is a weekly chart.
Review and plan for 18th NovemberNifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Results analysed.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Tesla bearish gap fill for further highs!? Going along the lines of GAP fills since the beginning of the year #tesla have been filling all the gap fills apart from the last 2 big gaps that happened: .
My thoughts:
- will we see a sell off in the remaining weeks of the year? Fill in the 2nd to last remaining gap and then next year push all the way up to $450
- Do we see the sell off happen till president trump is elected as president and then the stock will fly back to the highs of this year? As Elon is part of D.O.G.E
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Falling Wedge on SPX Falling Wedge on SP:SPX spx could see a test of the 5930 Level, Fill the Gap and back up from there, if not expect a flush down to 5900 and retest 5880. We do not want to lose the 5900 level or bears will be feeling good and think they can fill the gap Below around 5860 That gap is very large and runs down to 5780 roughly.
Gap opportunity setup -TSLA
Gaps are opportunity setups for trading purposes, but why?
Because at those times you know for sure that something is happening with the stock so it will move to a certain direction. It gives you a signal of one of the following scenarios:
- Someone is "exploiting" news and creating a shakeout to generate liquidity for himself so he can buy more stocks by inducing FEAR into the hearts of the paper hands.
- Someone urgently wants to get rid of his stock, so he reduces the price until he finds uninformed value investors who can take from him the stocks. Since he is the puppet master who is a giant of industry relative to the ants of uninformed value investors, there will never be more uninformed value investors demand than his supply, so the gap can't be filled.
Note to self:
To create educational idea about this.
Here I just described 2 scenarios out of 8 possible scenario combinations.
You have TrendUP/TrendDown (2)
Multiplied X by
Gap up/Gap Down (2)
Multiplied X by
Filled/ Not Filled (2)
Equals = (8) combinations.
Again, if you don't have the master puppet philosophy of stock market logic, you are always confused. If you look at the market like the master puppet, everything makes sense and you have calm and easy trading.
See my other posts about the puppet master theory and philosophy to know more.
See that there is an upcoming earnings in TSLA very soon, the stock is just begging to move...
If the stock will remain in place, and there will be gap up in earnings, there will be Island pattern so this is clear strong indication to the LONG side...
The TSLA Trade Setup You NEED To Know!Even if you did not know anything was going on this week... NASDAQ:TSLA had an amazing long setup on Monday. I posted about it then and wanted to make a followup educational video because it was so amazing! It was a setup I HAD TO TAKE because it was all my rules come together!
Traders need to know these individual components:
Earnings Pullback
Gap Levels
50% Retracement
Spike
And when some or all of them come together you take the trade
TSLA: Insanely Bullish! What to Expect Next? | D & W charts.In our previous analysis, we identified that TSLA was looking for its 21-week EMA, a classic region of support, where a very good reversal signal materialized.
Now, the price has resumed its previous uptrend, and we see it breaking through the most crucial resistance point at $265, which we also warned about in our last public study, the link to which is below this post.
Now, let's update you on the key points to keep an eye on.
Daily Chart (Left)
Gap Closure: Tesla has closed a significant gap from July 2023 at $289.52, which could act as a resistance level. Remember that gaps work as magnets when tthe price reverses. This gap closure often signifies an area where the stock might face selling pressure as previous buyers look to exit.
Support at $265.13: Previously a resistance level, this $265.13 area now serves as a future support based on the principle of polarity. Holding above this level would be a bullish signal, while a drop below might suggest weakness.
EMA Support: The stock is trading above its 21-day EMA, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum in the near term.
Weekly Chart (Right)
Approaching Next Resistance at $299.29: The weekly chart shows the next significant resistance level at $299.29. A break and hold above this level could open up more upside, potentially attracting more bullish interest.
EMA Support on Weekly: Similar to the daily, the 21-week EMA is supporting Tesla’s price, adding confidence for bullish traders.
Conclusion:
Tesla's chart shows bullish momentum with recent gap closure near $289.52 and support from the $265.13 level. Even if we see a top signal, the $265 area is supposed to be our next technical support level, and a pullback wouldn't ruin the bullish thesis to the $300 area - in fact, it would probably just be another buying opportunity, near a support level, when the R/R ratio is optimised. There is no technical evidence suggesting that it could correct for now, but we need to watch the price action very closely, as TSLA's price has just closed an important gap.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
LAC & GM Team Up for Thacker Pass! Here I have NYSE:LAC on the Daily Chart!
NYSE:GM plans to contribute $625 Million and seeks to claim 38% of the Joint Venture!
This remarkable announcement this week seen the Price of NYSE:LAC hit 4-Month Highs after Breaking Above the Falling Resistance that was keeping it down.
The rally seems to be tamed by the Resistance Level and Low that was created in February but is now testing the Break of Falling Resistance for potential Support to keep pushing Price Higher!
If Price can Push through this area, we could see Price make a move for the Gap @ ( 4.9 - 6.37 ) then find Strong Resistane @ ( 6.83 - 7.65 )
Indicators:
- Price will need to test the 200 EMA in $4 range
- RSI is Above 50 (Bullish)
- Strong Bullish Volume with Breaking Candle suggests Valid Break
- BBTrend Printing Green Bars
Plan for 21st October 2024 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
Resuls analysis - included
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
BTC CME GAP- CME and cryptocurrency ETFs are important, but in different ways :
- The CME is more influential in terms of institutional trading, price discovery, and market structure, while ETFs play a crucial role in making cryptocurrencies accessible to a broader range of investors and driving market adoption.
- Don't focus on ETFs, they are still young and small in BTC/ETH market ( around 5% ).
- Chicago Mercantile Exchange are older.
- Wealthy investors are in BTC from 2017.
- This Gap have to be taken soon or later.
PS : the green line is EMA200
Happy Tr4Ding !
Educated Gambling!! LOL. Call Options that go $POWW or OW!! Were in a Double Bottom and a Bearish Pennant on the daily so who knows, and the chart doesn't look great either. This one is at the top of my degenerate list, pure speculation. My idea is either a big bang or a misfire. I've been buying NASDAQ:POWW $2.50 calls expiring 1/17/25. Started off buying at $15 then $10 and now $5 per call. And sometimes no one is even selling these options when they list for .01 (actually cost $5 min) My thought is NASDAQ:POWW could either run in the next 3 weeks or all the way up to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, hope to at least fill the gap at 2.46 and then get back to June 3rd high of $2.86. Most of us can figure out why it could possibly go parabolic so close to the Election. I hope for God's sake and love of country I'm actually wrong about this and pray for peace. But at the same time, as some of the corrupt powers to be say "never let a crisis go to waste"... Safe Trading Everyone!!
NVIDIA GOING TO $75?? Unlikely but the chart shows...We have a DOUBLE TOP AND A RISING WEDGE with a price target of $75 on the daily chart. It seem unlikely but there is a big old gap from back in Feb 2024 at $75. There is another gap that needs to be filled around $119 that seem more likely. IMO the market like to balance itself by filling the gaps it leaves behind. The RSI looks to of topped out and is also curving over. Its very unlikely for NASDAQ:NVDA to drop that far down, but down to $119 seems likely before a possible Christmas rally (and wash sales) in late DEC. NVDA is such a strong company and demand for its chips is high, I really don't like the looks of that Double Top combined with a Rising Wedge. Safe Trading everyone!! (Charts are only part of the bigger picture especially with Nvidia, it is a beast of a company and who wouldn't love the opportunity to buy more NVDA at $75)
Review and plan for 10th October 2024 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
Positional trading ideas included.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Review and plan for 3rd October 2024Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
The overnight gap up on $SPYThe majority of the move in AMEX:SPY since 1993 has been in the overnight session.
In a trending bull market, and making new highs, this gap trade becomes more common.
But it doesn’t happen every day
We bought the close on Friday, looking to close out early near the open on Monday
Theres countless papers on this edge, heres one about the overnight drift
papers.ssrn.com
Lucid Group Trip Down to Lower $3's Before Uplift?! - LCIDHere I have Lucid Group, Inc - LCID on the Weekly Chart!
First, Technical. We see Price rock bottoms to its Lowest @ $2.29 on April 22 2024 and just after the Negative Earnings and Revenue report on May 6th 2024, Price creates an Equal High @ $3.35 followed by a Violation of Structure giving us a Higher Low @ $2.48 finding Support in the $2.50 Area to then make a Higher High @ $4.32!
Turning this once looking Downtrend to an Uptrend.
Prices Higher Highs and Lows are now being halted at the $4.20 - $4.40 Range where I suspect Price will need to find more Support before it can continue on to what I believe will be its next Target being the Next Swing High @ $5.31!
*Divergence in the Highs of Price relative to the Highs on RSI show Bearish Signs
The Bullish Rally in Price on August 19th left open quite a Gap to Fill from $3.83 - $3.30 and If Price is willing to fill it, the $3.46 - $3.13 Area looks very Valuable being there's:
1) - Equal High @ $3.35 being Potential Support
2) - Golden Fibonacci Zone @ $3.34 (55.9%) - $3.22 (61.8%)
(Based from HL @ $2.48 to HH @ $4.43)
3) - RSI after Breaking EQH, starts Trading Above 50
4) BBTrend Printing Smaller, Dark, Red Bars
All leading to Bullish Markers!
Now, Fundamentals. Lucid Group announced that it is set to launch not only 3 new affordable EV's but that it also plans to unveil the Gravity SUV later in the year "highlighting the company's advanced technology and mileage range on electric vehicles." In competition with Tesla's long reign.
www.tradingview.com
The "Fastest Armored Car On The Planet" is sparking investor interest with Lucid Air Sapphire is giving serious challenges to Tesla!
www.tradingview.com
The past 2 Earnings & Revenue Reports have both been Disappointing for the company but the most recent Report on August 5th compared to May 6th tell a slightly different story ..
May - Revenue Estimate (173.544M) / Reported (172.2M) = -844.404k
Aug.- Revenue Estimate (190.303M) / Reported (200.6M) = +10.279M
*Next Earnings and Revenue - November 5th 2024
LCID will be worth keeping a watch on .. Stay Tuned!!
MU: Trading Around a Critical Resistance Level!Since MU broke through its reversal point at $91.47, the stock has entered bullish territory, and has now reached our technical target at $111, which was set in our last public analysis on September 18, when the price was around $88 (link below this post).
Now that the technical has materialized exactly as expected, according to the evidence we had at the time, we can update our reading.
Daily Chart (Left):
Resistance at $111: The price has reached its resistance at $111, however, it needs to close above it to confirm a true breakout. If a top signal materializes below this area, then a pullback might occur.
Support at $96.18: Should a pullback occur, the $96.18 level, aligned with the 21-day EMA, can provide support. The price is comfortably trading above this area, which reinforces the bullish momentum.
Gap Resistance at $127.24: If the bullish momentum continues, the next major level to watch is the gap resistance at $127.24. Closing this gap could provide a significant boost for the stock, as it will have cleared a major technical barrier.
Weekly Chart (Right):
Double Bottom Pattern: A clear double bottom is forming around the $85 level, which typically indicates a potential reversal pattern. The price broke through the neckline at $111, but it needs to close above it to confirm this pattern.
Projected Target at $157.54: Based on the double bottom pattern, the potential target is around $157.54. This key point is the next technical resistance.
Conclusion:
MU is in a bullish phase, trying to break through the $111 resistance. With the double bottom pattern in play, the stock has room to test the $127.24 gap resistance and potentially extend toward the $157.54 target. However, should watch for possible top signals, as this could bring a pullback to the $96.18 support area, which may offer buying opportunities if the trend remains intact.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.