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Gap

Veeva SystemsThis is a daily chart of Veeva Systems (VEEV), a healthcare technology company that provides cloud solutions for the global life sciences industry. When the company reported its earnings on August 31st the stock price subsequently gapped down, as shown in the chart above. From a probability standpoint, this gap is likely to be filled for the reasons below. 1. The gap is a monthly candle gap and these usually close. Unfilled gaps on the monthly charts are generally quite rare, especially for assets that have never left a monthly gap before. As shown in the chart below, VEEV has never left a gap on its monthly chart before. 2. The gap is below the lower regression channel line. A regression channel is used to measure how far above or below an asset is trading from its mean. Since price generally tends to mean revert, it's highly unlikely that a gap below the lower channel line, (which in this case represents two standard deviations below the mean), will never be filled. It's more likely that the gap will not only be filled, but will be filled quite rapidly. The assumption I make in using this regression channel is that it is statistically valid and data are normally distributed. If true, then there's only a small probability that VEEV's monthly candle will close the month so far below the lower line of the regression channel. Therefore, it's likely that price will be drawn back up to the mean, and thus the gap will be filled. Here's a close up view: 3. Price gapped below an important Fibonacci level that has been holding, and likely will continue to hold, as support. See the chart below. Here are some close up views: At a minimum, price will very likely push back into the 180s. The quarterly chart shows long lower wicks at this Fibonacci level, indicating that it is holding as support. With further momentum to the downside waning as shown by the Stochastic RSI, there's little reason to believe this Fibonacci level will fail this time. The lower wicks on the quarterly candles are also bouncing off of the exponential moving average (EMA) ribbon, which usually acts as support when price descends to it from above. Strategy With this said, I noticed that someone is already sweeping the call options. They swept hundreds of out-of-the-money (OTM) call options expiring on 9/16 with a $180 strike. Clearly, this buyer believes that VEEV's price is poised to quickly return at least to the Fibonacci support level of $180.97. If you don't know what an options sweep is, it simply refers to an instance in which options are purchased right at the ask price. In most cases, buyers place a limit buy at the mid point of the bid-ask spread or at a lower target price. Market participants usually only buy at the ask price if they're in a rush to buy and/or if they have a high confidence about a certain market move and want to guarantee their entry while also not tipping the market off about their anticipated market move. Sweeps can also refer to when a large buyer wants to obfuscate their entry by splitting their large order into a lot of smaller parts to sweep the entire order book without tipping off the market as they would have if they placed a single large limit order. Understanding sweeps can help you understand what smart money is doing. It's very rare that retail traders sweep the order book because it's very expensive, and for a smaller portfolio (less than a million) it can be extremely risky. Therefore, smart money is usually the market participant who sweeps the order book. Personally, I find this call sweep to be risky (assuming that it's not part of some kind of a hedge) since although we have a high confidence that the gap may close, we don't know within what time frame it will do so. Rather than sweeping a call option with a strike price of $180 that expires on 9/16 a safer though less lucrative trade would be to sell a cash-secured put with a strike price of $180 and which expires on 9/16. Doing this gives you much higher odds of winning but is profit limited. If the price goes to $180 or higher at expiration, you win the full premium since the put you sold will not be exercised. If the price is below $180 but above the breakeven price at expiration, or if the price is below even your breakeven price, then you may be forced to buy shares of VEEV at $180, but you can simply hold those shares until the gap closes (or longer if you think price is going higher). Therefore in this case you still do not lose money, and still make the premium as profit. The only plausible scenario whereby you would lose money would be if VEEV's price continued to plummet and never recovers. Although this would be incredibly unlikely, it is still possible. You can nonetheless still hedge against even this risk by using a put spread to limit loss potential to a ratio that meets your risk management strategy. Therefore you can safely take a very high probability trade while managing risks well. Successful trading is mostly determined by how well you manage risks. Finally, since options are leveraged, one should always try to time their entry as perfectly as possible by using shorter timeframe (hourly or 4-hour) charts, especially if the option's expiration is close. For example, you can see that the 4 hour chart for VEEV is showing momentum building back to the upside. This is what you want to see if you're going to sell a put option strategy that expires on 9/16. These are just my thoughts and they are definitely not meant to be trading advice. As always, anything can happen. September can often be a volatile month and is prone to declines. Options trading is risky and can result in complete loss. Trade at your own risk. If you would like me to post more strategies like this on here leave a boost or a comment below so I can gauge interest. Thank you. If you're new to trading and don't understand the options trading language that I used above, I would recommend Project Finance to learn about options. I learned a ton about options trading from this channel and the content is always high-quality: www.youtube.com If you want to learn more about the basics of trading, you can see my post linked below for 10 rules for successful trading.
NYSE:VEEV
by SpyMasterTrades
22
EUR/USD Short-Term Rebound!• The weekly S1 (0.9880) provided support for the EUR/USD, which has since attempted to close the gap. It has encountered resistance at 0.9935 and currently appears to be unsure. It might shift sideways in the near future. • Price declines are still possible as long as the pair remains below the descending pitchfork's Resistance Trendline, signaling a bearish bias. A new sell-off could be announced if the gap is not closed. Only a valid breakout above the Resistance Trendline could signal a larger growth. Good Luck Traders!
Short
by DredDine
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Gap fill on NZDCADTrade Idea: Selling NZDCAD Reasoning: Filled the overnight gap at likely to head lower Entry Level: 0.8016 Take Profit Level: 0.7962 Stop Loss: 0.8031 Risk/Reward: 3.67:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
1
Two scenario for TSLA (tsla)hello guys In upper time frame tesla has a compression on left of chart It is neither broken nor engulfed, so this makes the stock more bullish, this QM that formed on gray area occurred on last zone of that compression. Now price is on a hidden gap area (master candle or long bar candle make it) commonly this area breaks up (because price reacted before). For breaking up this level firstly price should gather some order or stoploss. I have two scenarios: Scenario1: Price reaches to first liquidity pool to takes some Liquidity and then will start upward movement until touch MPL area (this area is great because correspond with bearish trendline) Scenario2: Price reaches to second liquidity pool and gap that price made before to takes some Liquidity (this area is so fresh that make it more important) and then will start upward movement until touch MPL area (this area is great because correspond with bearish trendline) always do your own research. If you have any questions, you can write it in comments below, and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your like and comment. BE PROFITABLE
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by melikatrader94
16
$RRC, cup & handle with a explosion gap pivot play Range Resources Corp is in the exploration and production of AMEX:USO and AMEX:UNG in the US. It was recentlty feature in IBD and got me interested because its good looking cup & handle. Today managed to breakout with a gap. This gap should act as resistance. As the market still needs to prove itself, I won't buy this breakout but the breakout from today's high with a stop loss just below yesterday's high. This strategy is called Explosion Gap Pivot. It uses the gap range as support.
NYSE:RRCLong
by dpuleo19
2
RUN - Adam & EveThis A&E pattern has a fair chance of working out due to the huge volume gap up on 28 July, followed by a bear flag (cup & handle within the "Eve" pattern). Attempts to break above the neckline failed last Friday however, but in the bigger picture, the stock is now above it's 200 day moving average. Any pullback from here should see support around 29 (recent bear flag low). Or long when there is a confirmed breakup followed by the first pullback that does not breach the neckline support. With S&P hitting potential resistance now, there is some worry that a pull back in the bigger market is imminment. Manage trades with appropriate stop losses and right position sizing. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:RUN
by Juliac
Falling Wedge- Bullish- Keeping a close eye on CRM here as its finally starting to break out of this falling wedge it's been holding for quite some time now. Big increase in buyer volume relative to seller volume as shown on the RSI with some slight bullish divergence on the daily timeframe, and some more bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe (See Attached Chart Below). - CRM closed out the week reclaiming its 20-Day SMA while also testing the upper trend line on the falling wedge it's been holding. On top of all that, CRM's EMAs are starting to curl upwards, with multiple gaps to fill on the upside heading into earnings, all signs pointing towards a breakout. - Bullish and will be looking for a breakout from this wedge (Broader Market Conditions Permitting)- Just some support and resistance levels to watch along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime --Weekly chart & Price Targets Attached Below-- PT1- $192.54 PT2- $196.23 PT3- $202.72 PT4- $205.18 + --Weekly Timeframe--
NYSE:CRMLong
by jacobosiason7