Netflix Gap Down X 2!Netflix Gap Down X 2!
2 gap downs were identified with the most recent gap down (81.69) on April 20, 2022. The other gap down (95.78) occurred on January 20, 2022. Both gap downs occurred AFTER earnings.
Position-Neutral. On one hand I am bullish on NFLX because it is oversold and volume is relatively low on the daily chart. As aforementioned, NFLX has two gaps to fill. I wonder how long will it take for the gaps to fill. I also wonder about the changes Netflix is making to earn back the business of the subscribers it loss. The latter part of my reasoning is what makes me neutral on the overall sentiment of this particular stock.
Netflix is currently trading well below its 200 day moving average (514.22). NFLX end of day stock price was 199.52 (28 April 2022).
What are your thoughts on NFLX?
Peace & Prosperity,
Al
www.tradingview.com
Gap
TSLA - TESLA Run - GAP - CRAP PatternThis seems too obvious to be true.
But the facts are the facts.
Besides the Run-Gap-Crap pattern, there is much more to recognize:
Watch the grey up-sloping pitchfork:
Price ran above the CL and now is pulling back, even closed below. This is a clear short signal. And it's in line with the yellow Mini-Pitchfork's CL too.
Another tool I use often are the sloping A/R lines, also in grey. I use them for timing, and even they intersect the confluence point at the pitchforks CL and the yellow downloading Trend line.
And even oscillators are telling their story too.
LEAP options are my favorite instrument in this case to play this move.
AMD: Any chance of reversing? Let's see.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMD is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, we see a strong bear trend, and there’s nothing indicating it’ll reverse. As long as we keep seeing lower highs/lows, we can’t say it is a buy.
However, AMD has a few key points that if broken, it could trigger a reversal. First, we have the 21 ema, working as a resistance for the price. Second, we have the purple trend line, as AMD has been trading below it for nearly a month now. Last, we have the previous resistance at $ 91.35. Only if AMD breaks all these resistances we might say the trend will reverse in the mid-term.
If AMD is about to react, the timing couldn’t be better: We just hit the support from July 2021 today (blue line). We see a bullish candlestick today, which is great, and since we are just at this support, the Risk/Reward ratio favors long trades.
We are far from the 21 ema, and any reaction in the 1h chart could make it retest the ema again. If we see more confirmation signs in the daily chart, we could say AMD will fill the last gaps, and the $ 118.60 would be our target.
The only problem is we have earnings in 6 days. This will increase the volatility, and could help a bullish thesis, sure, but if it backfires, the next support level is at $ 72. For now, I am neutral on AMD, and I see many other stocks that look much more interesting, but if this works out, it could be a great opportunity to trade.
Now is the time to watch it closely. I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
Falling Wedge - Earnings Play (Update)PYPL has been trading sideways for quite some time now after selling off after earnings. PYPL's holding a big falling wedge going into earnings with bullish hidden divergence on the RSI, multiple gaps to fill on the upside and is also in oversold territory. Earnings plays are always a gamble in my opinion. Personally am bullish and will be looking for a breakout from this wedge and for PYPL to go for the gap fill on the upside (Broader Market Conditions Permitting), please exercise your own due diligence given that it is an earnings play- just some FIB levels along with some RSI based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime-
- Falling Wedge on the Daily, 4-Hour, and Hourly Timeframes
- RSI Oversold
- Bullish Hidden Divergence on the RSI
- Multiple Gap Fills on the Upside
Netflix, What happened?Overview
After poor revenue release and news of losing subscribers in large quantities, Netflix has posted two major losses in recent times. This brings the valuation of Netflix shares down a total of nearly 70% from November highs.
The future
At this rate, the stock has been poorly rated by many analysts and has strongly bearish momentum. The question now is whether or not Netflix will try to implement a new way of doing business or alter current operating methods to try and bring its value back. In the event that Netflix is able to find a viable solution to return to successful business, we may see golden opportunities to buy back into such a large company with huge potential. However, given the rise in popularity in other video streaming services, it's unlikely that Netflix will be able to continue on its success by solely providing video streaming services without a major change in operation.
NVDA: Next targets + Scenarios to work with!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NVDA is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, it jumped nicely, but in the end, we couldn’t close above the $ 223, which is the most important resistance level for the short/mid-term. Only if NVDA breaks this point, and closes a candle above it, we’ll see some strength.
While the $ 223 is the most important resistance, the $ 212 is a key support, and it seems NVDA is just doing some range trading between these points. If NVDA breaks the $ 223, it’ll probably reverse the trend, and seek the gap at $ 258.
If NVDA loses the $ 212 it has two supports to hold the price. The first one is at $ 208, which is a very strong support level seen in the daily chart. The next one would be the $ 195.
Since we are very close to the $ 208, and the purple trend line is working as a support level too, the odds are that we’ll do an upwards breakout. However, let’s keep both scenarios in our minds right now, and react to what NVDA does.
Remember: Trading is reactive, not predictive. Let’s wait for more definition before jumping into any conclusion. I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so, remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses.
NKE - Could have windNKE has been displaying strong momentum for the past few days ago, beginning with a large candle gap up on 14th Apr on strong volume.
Expecting this moment to retest it's recent high @ 140 (also 38.2% fib retracement here) this week and could consolidate here a little before breaking higher eventually.
Scale out along the way up and trails stops up at intervals to protect profits as market is volatile.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Cheers.
AMD: Is it the time to BUY the DIP? Let's see...Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMD is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, AMD is in a clear bear trend, but there’s hope it could reverse soon. For the first time since it was trading at $ 125, it is actually breaking the 21 ema, and we do have the beginning of a bullish structure.
The black line at $ 98.38 is the most important resistance for us, as if AMD breaks this point, it might trigger a Rounded Bottom chart pattern. By triggering this pattern, the next targets on AMD will be our gaps (yellow squares). The $ 106 seems to be a strong resistance, but the optimal target would be the $ 118 (last gap).
In the daily chart, we see that AMD is trading at support levels, and any reaction here would be amazing, as the Risk/Reward ratio always favors the bulls when we are near support levels.
What’s more, AMD is far from its 21 ema, so it has some upside potential if it reacts. The only thing that could make AMD turn barish again would be if it loses the $ 92 area, so we must keep our eyes open. We have some possible bullish structures that could justify buying the dip, but to me, we must wait for more confirmation.
It is a delicate situation, but if we pay attention to these key points, we’ll be fine. I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to not miss any of my daily analyses!
AAPL: Will it finally FLY again? Let's see.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AAPL is doing today!
In the 1h chart, the trend is clearly bearish and we don’t see any bullish reversal structure so far. However, if it breaks the 21 ema along with the resistance at $ 166, it might be the beginning of a reversal.
If AAPL confirms a reversal sign, the next gap at $ 174 will be our next target.
This reaction is important because AAPL just hit its 50% retracement, even losing this point for a brief moment, which might indicate a bear trap after a false breakout.
The gap at $ 174 is seen in the daily chart too (yellow square), but we have a resistance area near the 38.2% retracement and the 21 ema (around $ 168 - $ 169). It is expected to see AAPL struggling at this area in the short-term.
So far, we see these good signs, and no clear bearish structure indicating a continuation of the bear trend. Only if we lose the 50% retracement again I believe AAPL will seek lower levels. For now, everything is going according to the plan.
I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
DDS: BREAKOUT, POTENTIAL 16% MOVEDDS , Dillard's (Department stores).
I like the break of that 292 resistance (the flat of the ICHIMOKU cloud). Just got long for a swing trade.
My first target is 319, which is the flat line of the upper cloud.
My second target is around 339, to close the gap of November 2021.
My stop is under today's candle, around 290.
Trade safe.
LULU - expecting more upside in medium termLULU was forming an inverted Head & Shoulders (a potential sign of trend reversal), which eventually broke up strongly upon Earnings Release.
I would classify the gap that accompanied this breakup as a "breakaway" gap (gap that occurs at the beginning of a trend change, usually signifying the new trend has some room to move).
However it soon hit into a "horizontal support that now turned resistance" around 390 and has since been correcting from there. As I believe the uptrend as room (considering the breakaway gap), the recent pullback is likely a bull flag. I would long the breakup of this bull flag @ 369.5 with initial stop just below 358.
Scale out 1/3 position near 390 and hold the rest to see if it would break out of this resistence eventually.
Disclaimer: TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Please your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Cheers.
AAPL: Watch out for that quad-resistance!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AAPL is doing today!
In the 1h chart, we see that AAPL is struggling at a very strong resistance level. The $ 169 was a previous support in the past, and now it is working as a resistance (Principle of Polarity). Still speaking of the $ 169, this is the gap area (blue square), which is another resistance. In addition, we have a purple trend line connecting the previous top levels. Like all of this wasn’t enough, we have the 21 ema, and AAPL is trading under it again. Yes, we are still in a bear trend in the 1h chart.
This is a quad-resistance level, and only if AAPL breaks this point we’ll see something interesting going on again. Otherwise, it’ll just keep dropping to the next support levels.
In the daily chart, we see that AAPL lost the $ 168, along with the 38.2% retracement. However, it just hit the 50% and today it is bouncing back up. This would be good, if we didn’t have the $ 168, the 38.2% retracement, and the 21 ema working as resistances in the daily chart.
It is important to notice that AAPL could drop all the way down to the 61.8% retracement, at $ 161, without ruining the bullish bias since March 15.
To me, AAPL is in a very delicate situation, and we must wait for the breakout of either its resistances or its supports, before taking action. To me, there are literally dozens of stocks that are looking much better, and that have more potential than AAPL right now.
Either way, I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
RIVN: The technical point that will trigger a reversal!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how RIVN is doing today!
For the first time since March 30, RIVN is trying to reverse the trend. This reaction is quite good, which is surprising, considering it is a Red Monday, and it is a sign of strength.
Technically speaking, this movement is very interesting. As RIVN just retested the $ 37.61 area as a support again, making it a possible Double Bottom, and it is trying to break the resistance at $ 41.
If RIVN closes above the $ 41 today, it might confirm this pattern. So far, all we see is lower highs/lows, indicating a strong bear trend. However, by defeating the $ 41, it’ll do something new, and this is a good sign of a reversal. We must not lose the $ 37.61, otherwise, RIVN will frustrate this delicate bullish structure.
In the daily chart, it seems RIVN just dropped to fill the gap at $ 37.32, and now it is reacting nicely. If it confirms the bullish structure in the 1h chart, the next resistance to work with is the $ 56.76. Above that point, we have an open gap at $ 60.80 that might help to attract the price to higher levels.
Let’s see how RIVN will close today, and if it’ll keep above the $ 41 area. To me, RIVN looks interesting, so I’ll keep you guys updated on this. Therefore, remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses!
AMZN: Buying the dip? Watch these key points carefully!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMZN is doing today!
In the 1h chart we see that it is trading near the support level of a Descending Channel. This is a good place for a bullish reversal, but so far, we don’t have a meaningful reaction.
The black line at $ 3,175.42 is the key point that could trigger a reversal, and the first target would be the 3,265.35. What’s more, it must break the 21 ema for good, which is another resistance for it.
Let’s see the daily chart for more clues:
In addition to the support in the 1h chart, the daily chart shows another important support level: The 38.2% Fibonacci’s Retracement. For now, AMZN is holding at this support area nicely, but it must break the $ 3,175 for some bullish confirmation.
AMZN is not one of my favorites right now, but it is looking interesting. Since it is near support levels, the Risk/Reward ratio becomes attractive again, and it is worth to trade it. The key point it must not lose in order to trigger a clear bullish sign is the 38.2% retracement in the daily chart.
Let’s keep our eyes open! I’ll keep you guys updated on this, as usual, so remember to follow me to not miss any of my future daily analyses!
SPX: Is it about to reverse the trend? Key points to watch!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, we see that the 4,500 is a very strong resistance, as we thought. Yesterday, we closed exactly at 4,500, and today, we are trying to break it again.
The SPX is in a short-term bear trend, and there’s no bullish reversal sign on it yet. However, if it stays above the 4,500 today, we might see a bullish pivot triggered above the 21 ema, and that’s a good thing. This is what the SPX needs in order to reverse the trend, and in this scenario, the 4,593 would be the next resistance.
What’s more, the last gap was filled (blue square), giving us the idea that this was an Exhaustion Gap. This alone is not a bullish sign either, but it tells us that if the index is about to reverse, now would be a good time, as the sellers are losing strength. If it doesn’t react, probably the next support at 4,456 will be retested again.
Unlike in the 1h chart, we see a clear bull trend in the daily chart, as the index is doing higher highs/lows and the 38.2% Fibonacci’s Retracement is holding the price nicely. What’s more, the 21 ema is also working as a support, and we are above it today again.
Now that we are near this support area, the volume is increasing again, and it seems it wants to resume the mid-term bull trend.
This movement was extremely technical, and there’s nothing surprising going on here. To me, the index is bullish, but we must not lose the 38.2% retracement, as when this happens, it usually drops all the way down to the 61.8% retracement.
I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
AMD: This is the most important support level!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMD is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, it is very bearish, and we don’t see any bullish sign on it yet. We are doing lower highs/lows, and we are trading under the 21 ema.
The most important resistance in the short-term is the $ 106 area, as it was the previous support level, and it is where the 21 ema is trading right now. If AMD wants to turn bullish again, this is the first resistance to break.
In the daily chart we don’t see any bullish candlestick/chart pattern as well, however, it is close to the support level at $ 99, which is a quite important one. If we look at the weekly chart, we can see it better.
The $ 99 area was a top level in January 2021, and it worked as a support level multiple times since then. It won’t be easy for AMD to lose this level.
The volume is increasing, which is interesting, and any bullish reaction could be an excuse to buy, as the R/R ratio makes a lot of sense. If it triggers a bullish sign, the gap at $ 118 (1h and D charts) would be our next target.
Let’s pay attention to this support level! I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so, remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses!
SPX: Correcting sharply! Is it a buy now?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the index is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, the index lost the support level we warned about yesterday, the 4,540, and it is doing the sharper correction we mentioned. So far, everything is doing according to the technique, however, we don’t see a clear buy sign yet.
What’s more, the index lost the support at 4,500 doing a gap, which might be an Exhaustion Gap if the index goes up and fills it by Friday.
In the daily chart, we hit our first support level at the 21 ema, and we almost hit the first Fibonacci’s Retracement at 38.2%. Depending on how the index reacts near this support level, it might be a buy again, however, we don’t see any buy sign for now.
Now that we are near our support level in the daily chart, it is the best time for a reaction, so we must patiently wait for it. Either way, I’ll keep you guys updated on it every day, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my analyses!
AMD: Is it a buy right now? Let's see what the charts say.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AMD is looking today!
First, in the 1h chart, it is doing a good bullish reaction. It seems we have a Rounded-Bottom after a massive sell-off, and this indicates that the bears are starting to get exhausted, and it is trading at discounted levels.
To me, AMD could hit the $ 124 again, however, I’ll set a target at $ 118.60 (the gap area, as evidenced by the yellow square), if it breaks the $ 110.57, and trades above it for a while, consolidating a reversal.
Trading above the $ 110 would be interesting because the market may see the last bullish leg just as a retest of the 21 ema to drop more again, aka Dead Cat Bounce.
What’s more, by breaking the $ 110 it has decent chances of breaking the 21 ema as well.
In the daily chart, we see that AMD is dancing around the 61.8% Fibonacci’s Retracement, and if it closes above it in the next few days, I’ll see it as a sign of strength. The 61.8% retracement is at $ 110 as well, reinforcing our thesis that this is the most important price level to break.
We can see the Gap in the daily chart too, and this is why I think it is a relevant target to work with.
I’ll keep you guys updated on AMD, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
STAA - Likely bottomed outA downtrend that had reverted to forming a base in the past 2.5 months with "neckline" at 85.50 +/-.
There was a strong gap of abt 10% on 28 March on huge volume which hit right into the horizontal resistence around 85.50 and experiencing some pullback since.
As this is likely a "breakaway gap" (a strong gap that occurs at the begining of a trend reversal), the odds are in favour of a trend continuation in the direction of this gap. (ie up).
One could attempt to go Long at the break of the small pennant that has formed (around 82), however with near term resistence nearby at 85.50, it could be agonising days ahead while it attempts to break above this "neckline". Hence an alternative more "conservative" approach is to wait for the stock to have a close (preferably not too far) above the neckline before staking (ie wait for confirmation of "strength").
Either type of entries has it's merits (and risks). Hence appropriate stop loss (ie money management) is necessary to cut our losses should trade not work out.
Disclaimer: TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Please your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Cheers.
SPX: Is it a good buy now? Trend analysis.Hello traders and investors! Despite the drop, the index is doing exactly as the technique said it would, and we talked about this yesterday (link to my last analysis below). Is this a good buy now that it is dropping? Let's see what the technique has to say.
In the 1h chart, it lost the 21 ema, and it quickly filled our gap (blue square), making it an Exhaustion Gap and it is seeking the next target at 4,500. The trend is not bullish in the short-term anymore, and it still has more room to correct. We lack bullish structures that could turn it bullish again, and we have nothing but bearish signs over here.
Let’s see the daily chart:
In the mid-term the trend is still bullish. The bearish sentiment in the short-term is creating a pullback in the daily chart, which is not ruining the main trend. All the bearish signals it gave us in the 1h chart just created the first pullback since Mar 15, and to me, the index needed this correction. It went up too much, too fast.
It would be acceptable to see the index back to its 21 ema, and the trend would still be bullish. In fact, any bullish reaction at this support level would be an opportunity to buy.
For now, I see no opportunities to buy, but we could see one soon. For now, let’s wait for it to get back to the 21 ema, then we’ll see how to proceed. Either way, I do daily analysis on the index, so just remember to follow me to keep in touch with my future analyses!
SPX: Our support is holding the price! But, for how long?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today!
First, in the 1h chart, we see a correction to the 21 ema, and the price is trying to react, as we expected (link to yesterday's analysis is below this post). This is good, and this correction doesn’t invalidate the bull trend, as the index is still doing higher highs/lows.
There isn’t any bearish structure around, but if the index loses the support at the 21 ema, the gap (blue area) could be our next stop. In the worst-case scenario, it would drop all the way down to the 4,500 (pink line), and this would ruin the bullish bias in the 1h chart, but not in the daily chart:
In the daily chart, the rally was intense, and now we are above the 4,595 (red line), indicating that the index is still looking strong. The fact that it couldn’t close under this line is another sign of strength.
If the SPX loses this red line, along with the 21 ema in the 1h chart, filling the blue gap we mentioned, then we might consider a sharper pullback. If this happens, I see the index back to the 21 ema in the daily chart again (now at 4,463 and rising).
For now, we don’t see a single bearish reversal pattern around, but since the index went up too much since Mar 15, it is important to be prepared for corrections. As long as we don't see a bearish structure, all we can do is assume the index will keep trending.
As usual, I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so, remember to follow me to not miss any of my daily analyses.