SPX: We are crashing! Time to panic?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today!
Yes, we have a systemic crash in the US, but we’ve seen worse. This crash seems to be related to US tech stocks and China only, as European markets are still quite resilient, especially FTSE (UK) and DAX (GER), which are leaving huge shadows under today’s candlesticks.
As we discussed in my recent video, the SPX has no reversal signs , and even now, we lack bearish structure. We must see lower highs/lows in the 1h chart before assuming we’ll correct more.
We have a support at the gap (black line, 4,369), and the index is seeking this point, for now. Remember: A crash is just a pullback, and it doesn't mean we are in a bear trend.
However, I agree that the daily chart looks bearish already.
The market might understand today’s movement as a false breakout from the previous top level, and we are heading to the next support at the 21 ema. If the crash is strong enough, we can retest the support around the 4,289 again.
I find it hard to believe we would retest the purple trendline in the daily chart without a stronger bearish structure in the 1h chart. We can hit there, but we must see a clear reversal in smaller time-frames.
Only time will tell if this is just a crash or the beginning of a bearish reversal. If it is a crash, then fine, it’ll be just an opportunity to buy, like it has been since April 2020. If it is the beginning of a reversal, then we must wait for more patterns to confirm our theory.
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Gap
SNAP: How to proceed in this post-earnings?Hello traders and investors! Thanks to the earnings report , SNAP is flying today. But how to proceed when this happens? Is it time to buy, to sell, to go short, or just do nothing? The charts will give us an answer.
If you are in SNAP, I always advise to book at least half of your profits in a day like today, just in case, and then set a technical stop-gain . On SNAP, the technical stop-gain is below the $ 73.59, as this point was the previous All-Time High, and it is supposed to work as a support in the future.
In the next week I would just set a trailing stop-gain under the previous day’s low. If SNAP keeps going up, that’s great. If it drops, then ok, time to exit.
Is there any chance that it’ll fill this gap? Yes, but I find this unlikely, at least for now. This is a Breakaway Gap enhanced by the earnings report, and SNAP did a breakout from the ATH by doing this gap (I like to call this Monster Gap ). The last time this happened on SNAP the momentum was so strong that it prevented even a pullback. Let’s remind SNAP on October 2020:
What could happen on SNAP right now, if it can’t keep pushing up, is a sideways correction , until the 21 ema catches up with the price again in a few weeks, to offer us a new support level on SNAP.
If I were out and wanted to buy SNAP, I wouldn’t count on a pullback, but I would wait for it to cool down a little bit more, and for the Risk/Reward ratio to make sense again. If I buy right now, it would feel like I would be buying from someone who bought at the last dip, and will use me to book profits.
Eventually, the 21 ema will get closer to the price, and we’ll see a good opportunity then. For now, as someone who’s out, I’ll just stay out. There are many more interesting stocks around.
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SPX: Volatile? Yes. Scary? No.Hello traders and investors! The SPX did exactly as we planned in our last analysis, and now we are just bouncing back up again. The link to my previous public analysis is below this post, as usual.
We are in a strong bullish momentum, but hardly it’ll keep going up without a pullback , and the 21 ema is there to support the price, along with the 4,322.
The index did fill its previous gap at 4,322 as we expected, since we lost the red line at 4,366 , and we did a sharper pullback seen in the daily chart as well.
Yes, the SPX hit our mid-term target at the black line around 4,289, and it did what seems to be a false breakdown , which happens when the price closes under the previous support, but the next day it quickly recovers, and closes above the support line again.
This situation is very frustrating for the bears, as it shows a lot of weakness on their part. The index couldn’t even retest its purple trendline yet (last time we touched it was in March).
As usual, all we can assume is that the index will continue its bullish momentum. However, if the index loses the 4,289 again then I’ll be more convinced of a sharper pullback to its trendline, or to the previous support at 4,167. But this is a big “if”. For now, let’s not assume things, and just react to the facts.
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PLTR: A very Technical Bullish Thesis.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today! This is an analysis, but we’ll have a lot of educational content as well, because PLTR has many patterns to talk about.
First, in the 1h chart, it seems we’ll reverse the short-term bear trend, as PLTR is doing a new high today, above the $ 21.70. This breaks the status quo , and it is something we haven't seen since the beginning of this bear trend, which started when PLTR triggered the Head and Shoulders chart pattern this month. This might be the start of something new.
If it reverses, we might use the Breakaway Gaps to guide us next. Remember: Gaps work as magnets. They are breakaway gaps because they are losing their support levels (purple lines). Keep in mind that we have 4 types of gaps: Breakaway, runaway, common and exhaustion.
There’s the idea of a Rounded Bottom pattern, as evidenced by the red line, and I find this pattern particularly hard to trade. It seems we can never tell if it is a true Round Bottom or not until we are already close to the target, which is the $ 23.39 , in this case.
It is not perfect, but it has a Piercing Line pattern in the daily chart, as evidenced by the yellow square. A Piercing Line occurs when the price opens in a gap, below the previous day’s low, closes near its high, and covers at least halfway of the previous bearish candlestick’s body.
What’s more, this pattern appeared just above the 61.8% Fibonacci’s Retracement.
All of this creates an interesting and technical bullish thesis for PLTR for the next few days.
What makes the situation more risky: The low volume in the daily chart, and the lack of bullish structure in the 1h chart (higher highs/lows). This makes me wonder if it’s too soon for PLTR, but the Risk/Reward ratio is good at this level. Either way, always use a good risk-management that suits your needs.
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SPY: PULLBACK? CORRECTION? CRASH?Greetings everyone,
(Key Takeaways) - (MONTHLY TIMEFRAME)
This $SPY chart dating back to the date it was listed on the market back in 1993 gives us a wider point of view of the market.
Overall the sentiment is still bullish-long. However, the next couple of months can be bloodbaths.
Easy to say we are a bit over-extended? The smallest white trendline (2017-NOW) is showing signs of weakness.
Possible downward move towards $416.00 in the next couple of weeks.
The longer white trendline shows a possible 100 point loss down to $340.00.
Keep in mind we are entering earnings season so the risk is very high.
(My sentiment)
Bearish - Short term
Bullish - Long term
K Daily SetupNYSE:K daily long setup:
Over the last few weeks prices have filled in the gap made on the May 6th earnings and then formed a double bottom at that support level. On Friday prices broke the top trendline and MACD has crossed positive.
Buy taking out Friday's high at 64.57
Stop Loss under double bottom at 62.41
Profit Target 72.78
Risk/Reward 3.8
SPX: Time to panic-sell?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the index is doing today! Will it crash this time? We’ll see.
Yes, we are finally doing a lower high/low in the 1h chart, which was the main condition for us to see a pullback in the mid-term. However, the movement is quite slow, and there’s still time for a bullish reaction around, so, we need to be careful here.
But if it confirms a bearish top under the 4,366 then the odds are that we will fill the gap at 4,322. This is a bearish reversal in the short-term, which can cause a pullback in the mid-term:
The daily chart is not bearish at all and still have a series of higher highs/lows, and pullbacks to the 21 ema are always opportunities to buy.
The 21 ema is at 4,313, very close to the gap in the 1h chart, and between the gap and the previous support in the daily chart, at 4,289. All of these points are key points for us to work with, and together, they are a good support area for the index.
It would be good if we seek this price level again, as in a bull trend, pullbacks are healthy, and we’ll see plenty of opportunities again. For now, let’s wait a little bit more.
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PLTR: Complete analysis (H, D and W charts).Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today, and do a complete study in multiple time frames (H, D and W).
First, in the 1h chart, the momentum is clearly bearish, and it is quite strong. We have two Breakaway Gaps, lower highs/lows, the 21 ema is pointing down and at any moment, we could close above it, since the beginning of the sell-off. We just hit the 21 ema to fall again.
Yesterday we lost the short-term support at $ 22.35, and it seems we have nothing to hold us. We have to zoom out a little bit to see the bigger picture:
When I’m lost, I like to use Fibonacci. Notice how PLTR is respecting the retracements, as it found a quick support at the 50%, bounced back up to the 38.2% and now it is dropping again. This tells me that there’s a good chance we’ll find a support at the 61.8% retracement now.
Therefore, the daily chart suggests that we could drop more 2 or 3% and that’s fine. I don’t see PLTR crashing or any extreme scenario here, and I consider this a correction.
If you look at the weekly chart, you’ll see that the last 3 candlesticks have very low volume. This tells us that PLTR is dropping due to the lack of momentum, instead of a real sell-off.
Since PLTR went up more than 60% since May’s bottom to our target at $ 27, it is normal that it’ll correct, and the Fibonacci’s Retracements are here to guide us in the mid-term.
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We only have bears... For now. 🐻Yes, AMC has been dropping without a rest, and it break the support we were looking in our last study. But is there any hope for it now?
The truth is, it is a bear trend, and the only thing that will make change my mind is the 37.39. If AMC breaks this point, then fine, I’ll assume it will bounce back to the 50.
One thing that is nice to notice is the divergence on the RSI, but we could drop more, imo.
I think we’ll close the gap at 32.61 down there, and we are quite close to it now! The RSI is pretty oversold, and maybe AMC will do something good next, we just have to wait for the next signals.
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Melissa.
SPCE: Is it worth to trade it right now?Hello traders and investors! Let’s take a look at SPCE today!
Yes, SPCE is dropping sharply, we have no reversal sign around, and there’s nothing telling us it’ll stop dropping. However, we have some key points to keep in mind.
Since we lost the 21 ema and the gap area (yellow square), which was indeed an Exhaustion Gap , I think we can work with Fibonacci here. Another support lost is the 38.2% retracement, and in these circumstances, the 50% retracement usually works.
This retracement level is around $ 35.80, which is starting to get close to the 21 ema in the weekly chart:
It looks like we had a huge V-Shape recovery here, and now we are just doing a pullback. In the mid-term, the odds are that one of the retracements will hold the price, but the 50% retracement would be a perfect support. If SPCE hits there, then it might be worth to trade it.
If SPCE will lose it afterwards, or if it’ll give us a reversal sign and fly again to the $ 60 we don’t know yet. SPCE could be an interesting stock to trade, but right now, my students and I are aiming for more interesting stocks.
Just focus on the points mentioned in this analysis and you’ll be just fine. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily free studies, and support this idea if it helped you!
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TSLA: You must keep an eye on these charts!Hello traders and investors! Let’s take a look at Tesla today!
Despite the drop, TSLA just did a pullback to its 21 ema in the hourly chart, no big deal. The problem would be if it loses this 21 ema, as the next support level will be the gap area, around the $ 658 , which is also the red line at previous top .
Tesla must react quickly in order to avoid this scenario and resume the bull trend. But the idea of a pullback is interesting if you look at the daily chart:
So far, Tesla is doing a Dark Cloud Cover pattern just under the resistance at the black line ($ 689.33). Not by coincidence, the gap seen in the hourly chart, which is near the red line at $ 658, is also very close to the 21 ema in the daily chart . What’s more, if we draw a Fibonacci Retracement from the Jul 8’s low to today’s top, the 50% retracement is quite close to this price level too:
The area around $ 658 has everything to be relevant in the short/mid-term , and it will be the best place to Tesla react and do a bullish reversal pattern. It doesn’t matter which side you are (long or short), this is a relevant key point for you to keep an eye on.
We’ll see how Tesla will react if it hits there. Meanwhile, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and support this idea if you liked it!
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PLTR: Time to buy? A complete study!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today! Let’s do a complete Multiple Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) on it.
First, in the 1h chart, PLTR triggered the H&S chart pattern that made it drop to the support at $ 22.35 (red line). This movement was quite bearish, but there are some interesting points to keep in mind.
It has two open gaps , both are breakaway gaps , as they break the support levels made by the thin purple lines by doing a gap, not by opening above the support and breaking them intra-day. This shows that the bearish trend here is strong.
Now we just hit the support at $ 22.35 and we have a bullish pivot point at $ 23.39 . If PLTR defeats this point, it will defeat the 21 ema too, and it might work as a mid-term reversal seen in the daily chart:
The $ 22.35 is even more interesting now, because it is the 50% Fibonacci’s Retracement in the daily chart, and if PLTR triggers the pivot point seen in the 1h chart, it’ll confirm this dual-support level and we’ll bounce back up in the mid-term.
Given we have many open gaps in the 1h chart, we can assume that PLTR will be attracted by them in the mid-term, and it’ll do a rally to close them. But there’s more:
In the weekly chart, we already defeated the 21 ema, and the last 2 weeks were bearish, but the volume was quite low, indicating that this is not a true bearish reaction.
We just found the 21 ema again, and it is working as a support for us, making it not a dual-support level, but a Triple Support level (red line 1h, 50% retracement daily, and 21 ema weekly).
The $ 27.47 is the target in the mid-term, but honestly, I’m aiming for the gap at $ 31.34 . Since me and my followers bought PLTR at the dip around $ 20, we are just fine, and I see this pullback as another opportunity to buy.
We’ll see how PLTR will behave in the next few weeks. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and support this idea if this insight was interesting to you.
Thank you very much,
Have a great weekend!
What's next for us? 🤓Ok, didn’t trigger any good buy recently, and it is just falling to its supports. It lost all the Fibs retracements we talked about last week (but they did work pretty well for some time), and now it seems all is red for NIO.
The good news is that the RSI is very oversold, meaning we might see a rally tomorrow to the 48. The problem is that we aren’t near any support, but are close to the gap and the 44.89.
The 4h chart is not oversold, and this indicates we might still close the gap and hit the support at 44.89, or the 43.89. We have no important sign, but the conflict between time frames is interesting. Will NIO do a rally to the 48 in the 30min, or will it fall to the supports in the 4h chart?
There’s nothing interesting here for now, but I’ll keep you guys updated.
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EBIX the Mother of All GapsThis small cap gem should be a fun one for swing traders as the asset has nicely put in higher lows and higher highs in price for the last 15 months or so.
And now at this moment it has 2 nice bullish setups going for it:
1) support at its $31 dollar level where there is also the 21 MA just below it as well.
2) a giant crater of a gap that needs to be filled still at around $47.15.
If the price was to fill this gap that would result in a +35% move to the upside from where we currently sit.
The ultimate target sits around $54, however.
If this $31 level continues to hold, lookout as this asset could move quickly.
Weekly candle close below $31 would be enough risk for me to exit the trade.
Keep that bearish scenario in mind as many traders may be attempting to play this gap also.
PLTR: Time to panic? A Multiple Time Frame Analysis!Hello traders and investors! As you asked, I’ll look at PLTR again this week! Some people are getting nervous about it, so, let’s talk about it. We'll do a complete Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) today.
First, as some of you pointed out, yes, we have a H&S pattern in the 1h chart, which was triggered, and it already hit its technical target, at $ 24.52 (previous bottom).
Now, not by coincidence, it is starting to react. This point is a good bottom candidate.
If you look at the daily chart, PLTR dropped sharply since it retested the resistance at $ 27.47. This movement was extremely technical, as PLTR hit the resistance, did a bearish engulfing, and now it is seeking supports again.
But remember: The trend is still bullish . We have higher highs/lows, and the 21 ema is going up. We are slightly under the 21 ema now, but that’s ok. PLTR went up a lot since May’s bottom.
The weekly chart gives us another clue about PLTR. It is dropping sharply this week (-8%), but the volume is extremely low, indicating that this is not a true sell-off, but only people not interested in trading PLTR at $ 27, so the price must drop a little bit more to get more interesting.
This bearish candlestick came after a series of seven white candlesticks in a row, so, this was already expected , and there was no better top candidate than the resistance at $ 27.47.
As this is just a pullback, in my view, I see no reason to panic, and I still see PLTR filling the gap at $ 31.34.
I hope my insights helped you, and if that’s the case, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my studies, and support this idea if you liked it !
Thank you very much, have a good weekend!
$MMX, making a move to close the gapThe gap low is 5.64, that is what we are shooting for. With the stoch crossing up below the oversold line, the candle closing above the EMA 9 and the RSI looking to bounce off support, the correct seems to have begun. Putting a take profit at 5.62 and a stop loss at 5.10
TSLA: What to expect next?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today!
First, since we hit our first target at it, Tesla has been inside a Triangle pattern in the 1h chart. Triangles are usually continuation patterns, but this is not a rule. A breakout from any of these purple lines will dictate the next movement.
If Tesla breaks the Triangle downwards, the target in the 1h chart is the gap at $ 657.20 (yellow square / green line). The volume has been quite low recently, and this is something to pay attention to.
An upwards breakout would make Tesla hit the next resistances in the daily chart.
The next target is the $ 714.89, which is a secondary resistance. We also have an open gap at $ 733, which might be filled too, given Tesla will keep trending like this.
Let’s keep in mind that the 21 ema is also another support level for TSLA, and it would require a true reversal sign to lose this support. So far, Tesla is just doing a sideways correction, a normal movement. I think it would be good if it drops to the 21 ema again, but who knows.
Either way, I see the gap at $ 733 as a nice target. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and support this idea if it helped you!
Thank you very much!