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TSLA: Will it reverse? Key Points to keep in mind!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about Tesla today! In the 1h chart, Tesla is trading above the 21 ema, which is a good sign, and seems it found a bottom there, as it can’t close under it. We have a bear trend in this chart, with clear lower highs/ lower lows, but tesla is showing some early signs of reversal. First, it filled the last gap quickly, making it an Exhaustion Gap (just like NIO did, and you may check my last analysis on NIO in the link below, I explain better how Exhaustion Gaps are formed there). But Tesla doesn’t have higher highs yet , but it has higher lows. That’s a start, but the situation will change if Tesla defeats the $ 718 (black line), which is a Pivot Point . Now let’s see the daily chart: I only wish Tradingview’s chart was right, as Tesla didn’t hit the $ 872 yesterday. Anyway, Tesla hit a support level around the $ 618 and it is bouncing back up. The $ 745 is a resistance for Tesla as well, but I find the volume very good now. Since Tesla crashed last week, the volume increased, and this is a good sign. The problem will be the 21 ema, as it’ll also work as a resistance. But if Tesla defeats these points, nothing will hold it until the $ 821. It could go even higher, but let’s proceed carefully. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates on Tesla and other stocks. Support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
NIO: What would take for a Reversal to occur?Hello traders and investors! It’s been a while, but let’s talk about NIO today! The stock dropped a lot recently, which is not necessarily concerning, as we are talking about a systemic drop, but still, very annoying. The thing is, NIO is doing some reversal signs in the 1h chart. First, it filled a gap, which was an Exhaustion Gap. We know it was an Exhaustion Gap because: 1 – It was filled quickly; 2 – It appeared just before NIO retests the $ 42.10, which is a support level; 3 – We already have several gaps in the middle of the bearish leg (yellow areas), when this happens, at one point, we’ll have signs of exhaustion, and an Exhaustion Gap usually appears. Yes, the bear trend is getting weaker, but it didn’t reverse yet. We must see NIO doing higher high/higher low . Yes, we are near a support level, and it didn’t lose the $ 42.10, but we don’t have any higher high. So, the $ 50.40 is the Key Point here, and if NIO defeats it, we may finally see a reversal in the 1h chart. In the daily chart, we see that NIO reacted very well last week, when it retested the $ 42.10. Until then, the volume was low (under the 21 ma I always like to put in the Volume), and now, when it retested the support level, the volume increased again. This could indicate that there are people buying NIO, simply because the Risk/Reward ratio makes sense. Yesterday’s earnings report did bring some volatility, but this is not going to affect the mid/long term perspectives for NIO. Let’s see if NIO will manage to reverse the bearish sentiment around it, and if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my updates on NIO and other stocks! And please, support this idea if it helped! Thank you very much!
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
13
Granolabar's Gap and Crap principles TESTED (2/26 Trade Recap)Introduction In this post, I explain how I utilized the Gap and Crap principles to trade SPY on February 26th, 2021. Recently, I made a post titled "Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)." The post is linked below. In it, I outlined my strategy for trading gap downs. I highly recommend you read that post before this one to understand the references I am making. In the post, I detailed a specific way to trade gap downs using a system of candles and EMAs. The most important part of the strategy is not necessarily the gap down aspect but the conditions I used to determine entries. Specifically: -------- "To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here. Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles. Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall." -------- I will proceed by explaining my thoughts on exactly what was going as I was watching the market. (Note: stops at entry means that I set a stop loss at the price I originally purchased the option for, meaning that it will sell for breakeven price. This is important later on.) Trade 1: After getting on Tradingview in the morning and opening up the 5 minute SPY chart, I quickly noticed that SPY did not move at all overnight. Despite the lack of a gap, we could still trade with similar principles. I first drew the resistance at premarket high (yellow) and premarket low (blue) as well as a minor support (white). Identifying these support and resistance levels, as well as any applicable trendiness, are an important part to trading successfully. Keep in mind that the cleaner these lines are, the better they will act as critical levels. The first few candles after market-open were just chopping between the minor support line and the premarket high; nothing closed above or below either, so there was nothing to be done there. Do not force a play!!! You do not always have to be doing something in the market. Oftentimes sitting on your hands is the best thing to do. The next candle is when I went on high alert mode. It ended up not only closing under the minor support from premarket (that happened to hold for the first 20 minutes of the trading day), but it also closed below the 50 EMA. At this point, I was just waiting for the next candle which immediately pushed below the low of the first candle, giving the entry signal (Scenario 1). For this play specifically, I kept my stop loss at the premarket high (good resistance) and my target was the premarket low since there wasn’t any major support until then. Once SPY hit the premarket low, I scaled out most of the position and left stops at entry for the rest. Trade 2 The next play came immediately after when the following candle closed right below the premarket low. This candle was followed by a slight pullback, so my conditions for entry changed to a new candle closing below the previous low (Scenario 2). To remind myself, I marked the bottom of the break candle with a white line. This image was from that moment and shows exactly what I was thinking (I don't have the replay feature for any timeframe less than the daily). A few candles later, a candle closed under the break low. This marked the entry of a short position, with the stop loss set at the premarket low (blue line) since it previously acted as a critical level. I decided to start scaling out after seeing a small inside bar green candle, which is typically a reversal pattern. Since I took profit on part of the position, I made sure to set stops at entry for the remaining position. This ensured that the play finished green; it is not worth it to risk the remaining position going negative and cancelling out the gains. If the market takes another turn down from there, just consider reentering a new position. I will continue reiterating this concept since it is crucial for this fast paced trading style. Trade 3 After exiting trade 2, I did not play the break of the premarket low from the bottom up, but it would have been a good scalp also. Theoretically speaking, this was how it would have played out if the rules were followed. The play I did take, however, was the break of the premarket high a little later. Again similar principles: closed above the line, the next candle immediately pushed higher (Scenario 1), and the stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 cloud on the 1 minute chart. In this play, I scaled out due to a red inside bar; again, I left stops at entry after scaling out the first time to ensure the play stayed profitable. Trade 4 This trade was a slight change of pace; I ended up playing a falling wedge breakout with the same principles. I saw that SPY was forming a clean wedge with the top and bottom trend lines both having 3 solid touches each. The plan was to wait for a break of the 50 EMA (top of the blue cloud in this case) since it typically acts as a support/resistance. The stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 ema cloud on the 1 minute chart, and the price targets were the white and yellow lines from premarket. As soon as it hit the first price target, I scaled out half the position and set stops at entry to lock in gains. The rest were sold at the second price target since the stops were not triggered beforehand. Right at breakout view: Nearing PT 2, premarket highs: To play devil's advocate on my own plan, I am asking myself why I did not sell the position at the 2:44 PM ET 1 minute bar (the 13:44 bar on my chart above). The candle was fully below the 34/50 EMA cloud and had pushed below the previous "break" candle's low for a second. While those are valid points, it did not satisfy my stop loss conditions. I wait for the second candle after the “break candle” to close below the first candle's low on the 1 minute, which this candle did not. Additionally, it ended up closing as a hammer which is typically a bullish sign. After that fourth play, I did not take any more positions for the day. Typically, the last 30-45 minutes of the day are very volatile, especially on a Friday, and it can be very risky trading in that environment. The options that I typically play expire within an hour of close; any misplay will lead to 50%+ losses instantly. However, if I am in a position that goes into the last 30-45 minutes of the day, I will not close it just because it hit that time of the day. Conclusion: I hope you enjoyed this post; it may have been a little lengthy again, but I wanted to detail exactly how I used the principles that I devised to trade. There are 3 key takeaways: 1. The candle stick rules I use to decide when to enter a trade is a good way to catch breakouts while minimizing fakeout risk. It may mean that your entry is not exactly the first bar of the breakout, but the additional safety will help the majority of the time. 2. The rules I devised in scenario 1 and 2 are not limited to Gap and Crap setups. I will use them on whatever a clear breakout opportunity presents itself, including ascending triangles, bull flags, bull pennants, symmetrical triangles, falling wedges, cup and handle, inverse head and shoulders, etc. 3. Always make sure you set stops at entry if you reach a take profit level and sell a portion of your contracts. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. I will try to read all of them :) Have a great day and I wish you well. -Granolabar
AMEX:SPYEducation
by granolabar_trades
4
Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)Introduction Within the past week, AMEX:SPY has become increasingly volatile, with massive gap ups and downs followed by all day runs extending more than 3% in either direction. This is apparent with a cursory glance at the following chart. With this volatility comes uncertainty, especially for those who are swing trading on the timeframe of a few days to a few months. However, we can use this increased volatility to our advantage. i am going to introduce my way of trading these days, particularly the ones involving gap downs. Identifying the Setup Identifying the setup is relatively simple, but there are a variety of factors that can improve your chances of success. Firstly, the stock needs to have gapped down overnight. This one is quite obvious and easy to identify; look for a literal gap in the prices going from after hours to premarket, like those identified in the following chart of SPY. Secondly, there are a few things that can improve the chances of this strategy playing out. For example, if the stock recently hit a supply zone and rejected, the gap down is more likely to be followed by more downside as the stock is already in "pullback mode." Additionally, trendlines are another great thing to keep in mind. For example, SPY recently hit a nearly 4 month long strong trendline and rejected. Generally speaking, the larger the timeframe that the trendline is identified on and the more "touches" it has, the stronger it will be. I often find it useful to work my way down from the 1 month or 1 week chart down to the hourly to identify trendiness that I need to keep in mind. Trading the setup To trade this setup, I like to primarily stick to the 5 minute chart. The one minute chart has too much noise, while the 15 minute takes too long for confirmation that you would miss a sizable amount of the move. Once you are on the 5 minute chart, draw a horizontal line at the bottom of the premarket low, as shown below. This will be the critical value to watch. Theoretically, you want to enter when that line breaks , BUT there are often fakeouts around these critical levels. To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here. Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles. Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall. Let's Talk Take Profit and Stop Losses Now that you have successfully entered the position at an optimal place, the next thing to consider is where you want to exit, whether that is to secure the tendies you just made or protect yourself from further losses. Note, this part is completely up to you and your risk or reward tolerance. Assuming that it all goes to plan the the stock starts to fall: I typically trade weekly options for this kind of play, as it is a short term play. Because options premiums move quickly in both directions, I will take profit at 25% with about half the position if the candles are getting smaller, indicating that the trend may be weakening. Then I will set a stop at open, meaning that I will sell the remaining portion of the position if the contract goes back down to my purchase price; this guarantees that ultimately the play is profitable. However, if the candles stay rather large, I will hold the position until the candles do start to get smaller, and sell half the position there, often around the 50%, 75%, or 100% profit mark. If the option does hit 100% profit, I will almost always sell half, with very very few exceptions. This ensures that even if the other half of my position expires worthless(worst case scenario), I come out of the play completely unscathed. If the play does not go according to plan: Let's assuming that right after you enter based on the conditions above, the stock reverse to the upside. Now the question becomes, when do you sell to prevent yourself from taking major losses. For this I use my EMA clouds, or simply just EMAs with the region between the lines shaded in. I typically have a 5/12 EMA cloud (green) and a 34/50 EMA cloud (blue). As soon as one candle closes above the 5/12 green EMA cloud on the 5 minute chart , and the next candle closes above the first candle, that Is when I take the loss and move on. Often times, when playing this strategy, the price will come back up and retest the break line; do not panic if the position is immediately red, but also stick to the stop loss rules mentioned above. This cloud strategy also applies to closing the last half of the profitable position mentioned above. When you are left with half a position at 100% profits or more, I will wait for reversal to sell. The reversal tends to happen when one candle closes above the 34/50 EMA cloud on the 1 minute, and the next candle pushes past the first high. There are also many other ways to market the bottom, such as bullish divergence, engulfing candle, abandoned baby, etc. TLDR This is my way of trading gap downs that utilizes candle sticks and the EMA clouds to determine Stop loss or Take Profit places. Simply put, buy puts when the price cleanly breaks the premarket low, ride with the clouds until they suggest a reversal or hit a stop loss point. if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to let me know. I would love to hear other perspectives or criticisms. Also, the "clouds" are just EMAs filled in with crayons, but if you want the script, it's in my profile.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by granolabar_trades
30
AAL: It's flying today! How to proceed now?Hello traders and investors! It has been nearly 1 month since my last analysis about it, let’s see if AAL behaved the way it should. First, in the 1h chart, AAL respected the key point we mentioned in my last analysis, the black line at $ 16.47 with an astonishing precision, and it hit it multiple times, without losing it. This point was a previous resistance, and it worked as a support, as we thought it would, thanks to the Principle of Polarity . And if you missed my last analysis, the link to it is below, as usual. It triggered several pivot points , the last one at $ 18.82, and we have a little gap at the yellow area. If it gets filled this week, it could be an Exhaustion Gap , and this could create another congestion on AAL. Right now, it is a little to buy it, as the optimal buy point was near the $ 16.47, and we are quite close to the target I mentioned last month, but since it is engaged in a bull trend, pullbacks to the 21 ema could offer some nice opportunities to buy too. Now, let’s see the daily chart: In the daily chart, AAL is heading to the target we mentioned in my last analysis, the $ 22.80, which is one of the previous resistances, and nothing unusual is happening here. The volume decreased during last month’s accumulation, which is a typical trait of just an accumulation before the explosion, and the 21 ema is pointing up, evidencing the bull trend and working as a support level in the future. What’s more, the volume increased in the last 2 days, and today is finally above the 21 moving average I like to put in the volume as well. These are good signs but be prepared for pullbacks, but they could offer an opportunity for the late buyers. Any pullback to the 21 ema in the daily cart as well could be a nice opportunity if you missed the entry point on AAL. And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses on stocks and indices. And please, support this idea if you liked it! Thank you very much.
NASDAQ:AAL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
8
TSLA: Key Points we all must keep in mind!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today! The area between the $ 780 and $ 762 (black and blue lines) seems to be working as a support level for Tesla, in the short-term, and this could trigger a reaction strong enough to change the trend in the next few days. The short-term trend is clearly bearish , and the 21 ema is going down along with the price. But maybe Tesla has a Pivot Point at $ 799.80 , which could make it seek for higher resistances, like the purple trendline, or even the $ 880 again. But Tesla would need to defeat the pivot point and the 21 ema (and make it point up again) in order to confirm this movement. Just like the black and blue lines in the 1h chart represent a support zone, the yellow area between the $ 880 and $ 900 (light blue lines) represents a resistance zone . Given the low volume , we can assume that Tesla is trapped inside a congestion. But Tesla must not lose the $ 780 again, as this could trigger a sharper pullback to the $ 695 (previous top). We can’t tell which direction Tesla will go from now, so, let’s keep our eyes open here. And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses on stocks, and please, support this idea if you liked! You'll find more analyses in the links below. Thank you very much.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
10
AAPL: Losing important supports! What now?Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about AAPL today! It lost the support levels we discussed in my last analysis, so, let’s see what’s going on here. First, we may consider that we have a Descending Triangle chart pattern here, and Apple is near the bottom level of this Triangle, at the black line. Now is a good moment for a bullish reaction, and if AAPL fills the previous gap (yellow area), then it could be an Exhaustion Gap , making the bear momentum weaker. Let’s see if the daily chart tells something else: AAPL lost the purple trendline, which we have been discussing for a few weeks, and now the stock is just looking for more supports (if you want to check my previous analyses, the link to them is below). The $ 130 is a good support candidate , and if AAPL closes above it today, or if we see a false breakout tomorrow this could be a good sign. If it loses this support, then the next stop is the $ 126, but we’ll must wait for some confirmation first. You may say that we have a H&S chart pattern here, and I won’t disagree, but the chances of it being triggered decreases with the volume . Since the volume is too low, we can’t take any bearish reaction seriously (neither bullish), therefore, we need more patterns that could confirm the next movement, which are several. Either way, if you want more updates on AAPL, just follow me to keep in touch with my analyses! And please, support this idea if you liked! Thank you very much!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
ZOM: Should we panic-sell this now?Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about ZOM today, and do our usual Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA)! First, let’s start with the 1h chart. ZOM did a classic Double Top chart pattern at $ 2.91 (black line), and now it is dropping to its support levels. The first support lost, after some fight, was the 21 ema. Then the green line at $ 2.34, and now it is trying to lose the blue line at $ 2.13 as well. Since it is a short-term bear trend, ZOM will keep seeking for lower supports, until one works and holds the price. What’s more, according to the Principle or Polarity , when a support is lost, it is supposed to work as a resistance next, and vice-versa. The green line and the 21 ema could make a strong resistance zone for ZOM in the short-term. Also, keep in mind that ZOM lost the green line by doing a Gap , which is also going to work as a resistance. The fight is not going to be easy for ZOM, but let’s see if the daily chart has something else to tell us: In the mid-term, the trend is clearly bullish, and in a bull trend, pullbacks are expected and seen as opportunities to buy. We have a strong support area between the 21 ema, the black line at $ 1.48 (previous top) and the Gap (yellow rectangle), and ZOM could retest again this area and the trend would still be bullish. What is interesting is the volume , as it increases during upside movements, and decreases when the stock drops or enters in a congestion, meaning that the buy force is stronger than the sell force at this moment. And if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. And support this idea if it helped you! Let's wait for more confirmation on the charts, before jumping into any conclusion regarding ZOM. Thank you very much,
Z
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
18
PLTR: A very STRONG support level for PLTR!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today! It reported Earnings, and it is dropping sharply today, but how to proceed now? First, since it lost the Key Point we discussed in my last analysis, it just dropped to hit the next target, which is the $ 28.07. If you missed my last analysis, just check the link below. The Key Point was the dual-support level made by the purple trendline and the gap support at $ 34.04. The trend is clearly bearish, at least in the short-term, as the 21 ema is pointing down, but we don’t see clear lower tops/bottoms (except in smaller time frames), and the 21 ema is too far from the price. Since we just hit a support level, now is the best time for a bullish reaction . You might be asking, why is this black line a support level? The daily chart will tell you why: The $ 28.07 was a previous top level for PLTR, and according to the Principle of Polarity, it is supposed to work as a support now. Today we had a Gap (yellow rectangle) and the volume increased a lot, and since we are near a support level, this could be signs of exhaustion of the bear trend, a nd this gap could possibly be an Exhaustion Gap . This week we'll know what kind of Gap this is. If PLTR loses this black line, the next target will be the $ 22.50 (green line, previous bottom), but it won’t be easy, as it’ll require a lot of strength for PLTR to hit there without a pullback first, at least in the 1h chart, given all the information we had: Possible exhaustion gap with high volume, near support level, and far from the 21 ema in the 1h chart. This is a quite strong support level. But so far, we have no confirmation of any bullish reaction, so, we must be careful. Let’s monitor PLTR closely, and if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep I touch with my daily updates, and please, support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much.
P
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
11