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Gapfill

Gap TheoryThe gap theory is short and simple. Not everything needs to be lengthy and laborious. "Everything should be simple as possible, but not any simpler" Break-Away Gap Once a new cycle has begun and you see a breakaway gap in the STARTING of a move, you get confirmation of this new cycle. HOLD. Run-Away Gap Once the trend is continuing for some time and then you see a second gap, this is a confirmation that you are somewhere in the MIDDLE of the move, so you know a further movement in price is expected. HOLD. There is a possibility that you can get multiple runaway gaps. Exhaustion Gap After a move in price had already happened, a gap that signals the END of the move happens. If this is your 3rd gap on the, you should look very closely to distinguish if it is a runaway gap or exhaustion gap. SELL. How do you tell the difference between the exhaustion gap and the runaway gap? Easy, if after the gap happens the price shoot straight up without closing the gap in the next few days ---> runaway gap. HOLD. if after the gap happens the price is closing the gap in the next few days ---> exhaustion gap. SELL. If you like it, follow and like so it will be saved in your saved ideas for future reference.
AMEX:MJEducation
by ZoharCho
5
Bearish Dark Cloud Cover at a 0.618 Fib Retracement On the DailyYesterday TSLA went up to fill a gap before closing bearishly on the daily and ultimately forming a Dark Cloud Cover. This is a bearish signal that could take us down to fill some gaps on the downside, potentially going as low as $412; Any significant price action above the 0.786 retrace will negate this trade and any significant price action below the 55 Day Simple Moving Average will strengthen the validity of this trade.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by RizeSenpai
1
🔹$PFE 4H Technical Analysis PT 37.28🔸 $PFE 4H Cup & Handle Breakout. This is a **SOLID** setup for this week. I am looking at a 2 week swing for $PFE price target 37.28 on that solid gap fill. Now, the chart looks absolutely beautiful not only that but we have a catalyst play $PFE. We have the PDUFA date on April 28th. I am expecting a run up for that event as well as to fill the gap to the upside. 🔸 Swing* 36.50c 4/30 ( Looking To Get @ Open ) Really Cheap also looking to sell before the event or until we hit our price target on that gap.
NYSE:PFELong
by Firecycle114
1
TDOC Inverse Head and Shoulders Long StrategyAfter being beaten down during the Feb-Mar correction, TDOC is sitting more than 100 points below its ATH. It is awfully close to the neckline which happens to coincide with the 50 day SMA @ around 187. Also note the massive gap above the neckline indicated by the grey rectangle -- around 12 points. This looks to be a very rewarding long strategy and even a good buy for shares given the upside potential and increased relevance of telehealth.
NYSE:TDOCLong
by TheTraderMoes
3
Head and Shoulders along with the Fed Digital DollarThe fed has plans of releasing a digital dollar later on this year could leave PayPal fundamentally crippled as the Fed plans on distributing it's own software to process payments leaving Payment processors like Paypal to seem very redundant. Because of this and because of the price action we are seeing on the chart; I believe Paypal is due for a retracement downwards, Perhaps to fill the Gap from May of 2020 News Source for the fed's Digital Dollar plans: news.bitcoin.com
NASDAQ:PYPLShort
by RizeSenpai
GRPN - Good, Bad, or Ugly, $48 Just Makes SenseWhether GRPN goes on to have it's best year, worst year, or just hovers around expectations, $48-$49 confirms path for all of these results. First - Just some fundamentals that match up with technicals: -Currently, the market is factoring in an upcoming earnings EPS equal to pre-covid (November 2019) numbers of roughly -$0.60. -The yearly EPS for 2019 was $0.30 and the estimated EPS for GRPN in 2021 is $0.33. A year in which GRPN traded from the range of $78 to $47. In saying this, the share price can move freely between this range depending on which way the technicals push price action - without getting over extended from this range. -In GRPN's best year, it traded with an EPS of $0.40 at a P/E of 255 ($102 price target) If technicals indicate a move up, demand will be there to confirm the move due to the current sentiment of a positive financial year. If the technicals show a push to the downside there also shouldn't be much resistance to supply due to the uncertainty GRPN has moving forward. Chart posted above shows an anticipated breakdown to $48-$49 due to a confirmation of a diamond top formation. Below further explains the bottom price target. Now lets look more into this move. (with anticipated low $48 used as the 0.00 FIB) A pullback to the $48-$49 range; allows a fill of the gap up, reach of lower trendline support, and sets a good bottom FIB number to keep from getting too extended out of the current trendline. All within the same move. Also this allows for a test of the upper mid-line channel of previous overhead trends. Furthermore, if GRPN goes on the have year where they meet expectations, market makers can move price through the trend without shaking out too many investors (keeping price action within upward trend). While still reaching the EPS based price target by end of year ($78). If, GRPN goes on the have their best year: (with cup and handle extension drawn) The pullback to $48-$49 confirms retracement to the 1.272 FIB level of the cup and handle as support (would indicate to investors a strong potential for upside), while also holding the lower trendline as support. If they have a bad year, its going down to $48 anyways.
NASDAQ:GRPNShort
by rickhubbard10
E2M - ASX Gold/CopperRule of thumb is gaps get generally get filled, looking to take some profits off the table at the yellow trend line then ride the rest. RSI poised for a break out with Bullish divergence. I believe commodities are pretty close to breaking out and i don't mind this for a near term trade, there is still a chance for more downside action but long term PMs will rise significantly. E2M has more drill results inbound so hopefully they can produce some numbers to help along the trade. (Not financial advice- DYOR )
ELong
by DylanWikki
ENB Gap BuyInsert whichever narrative you like, problems on line 5, oil ripping past 60$, or there is a gap near 43.00. I would like to buy more ENB, but I would rather buy nearer to 40/43 where the yield is much better and it would not push my cost average to much higher. Also that wick-up that occurred a few days back. Doesn't always happen, but I find in many markets, those long wicks tend to get re-tested and sometime break lower for a bit before the market has decided to follow the path of said wick. Ideal buy would be between now and next ex-dividend date, but of course buying ex-dividend can yield a superior buy-price.
TSX:ENB
by JJMa
Granolabar's Gap and Crap principles TESTED (2/26 Trade Recap)Introduction In this post, I explain how I utilized the Gap and Crap principles to trade SPY on February 26th, 2021. Recently, I made a post titled "Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)." The post is linked below. In it, I outlined my strategy for trading gap downs. I highly recommend you read that post before this one to understand the references I am making. In the post, I detailed a specific way to trade gap downs using a system of candles and EMAs. The most important part of the strategy is not necessarily the gap down aspect but the conditions I used to determine entries. Specifically: -------- "To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here. Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles. Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall." -------- I will proceed by explaining my thoughts on exactly what was going as I was watching the market. (Note: stops at entry means that I set a stop loss at the price I originally purchased the option for, meaning that it will sell for breakeven price. This is important later on.) Trade 1: After getting on Tradingview in the morning and opening up the 5 minute SPY chart, I quickly noticed that SPY did not move at all overnight. Despite the lack of a gap, we could still trade with similar principles. I first drew the resistance at premarket high (yellow) and premarket low (blue) as well as a minor support (white). Identifying these support and resistance levels, as well as any applicable trendiness, are an important part to trading successfully. Keep in mind that the cleaner these lines are, the better they will act as critical levels. The first few candles after market-open were just chopping between the minor support line and the premarket high; nothing closed above or below either, so there was nothing to be done there. Do not force a play!!! You do not always have to be doing something in the market. Oftentimes sitting on your hands is the best thing to do. The next candle is when I went on high alert mode. It ended up not only closing under the minor support from premarket (that happened to hold for the first 20 minutes of the trading day), but it also closed below the 50 EMA. At this point, I was just waiting for the next candle which immediately pushed below the low of the first candle, giving the entry signal (Scenario 1). For this play specifically, I kept my stop loss at the premarket high (good resistance) and my target was the premarket low since there wasn’t any major support until then. Once SPY hit the premarket low, I scaled out most of the position and left stops at entry for the rest. Trade 2 The next play came immediately after when the following candle closed right below the premarket low. This candle was followed by a slight pullback, so my conditions for entry changed to a new candle closing below the previous low (Scenario 2). To remind myself, I marked the bottom of the break candle with a white line. This image was from that moment and shows exactly what I was thinking (I don't have the replay feature for any timeframe less than the daily). A few candles later, a candle closed under the break low. This marked the entry of a short position, with the stop loss set at the premarket low (blue line) since it previously acted as a critical level. I decided to start scaling out after seeing a small inside bar green candle, which is typically a reversal pattern. Since I took profit on part of the position, I made sure to set stops at entry for the remaining position. This ensured that the play finished green; it is not worth it to risk the remaining position going negative and cancelling out the gains. If the market takes another turn down from there, just consider reentering a new position. I will continue reiterating this concept since it is crucial for this fast paced trading style. Trade 3 After exiting trade 2, I did not play the break of the premarket low from the bottom up, but it would have been a good scalp also. Theoretically speaking, this was how it would have played out if the rules were followed. The play I did take, however, was the break of the premarket high a little later. Again similar principles: closed above the line, the next candle immediately pushed higher (Scenario 1), and the stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 cloud on the 1 minute chart. In this play, I scaled out due to a red inside bar; again, I left stops at entry after scaling out the first time to ensure the play stayed profitable. Trade 4 This trade was a slight change of pace; I ended up playing a falling wedge breakout with the same principles. I saw that SPY was forming a clean wedge with the top and bottom trend lines both having 3 solid touches each. The plan was to wait for a break of the 50 EMA (top of the blue cloud in this case) since it typically acts as a support/resistance. The stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 ema cloud on the 1 minute chart, and the price targets were the white and yellow lines from premarket. As soon as it hit the first price target, I scaled out half the position and set stops at entry to lock in gains. The rest were sold at the second price target since the stops were not triggered beforehand. Right at breakout view: Nearing PT 2, premarket highs: To play devil's advocate on my own plan, I am asking myself why I did not sell the position at the 2:44 PM ET 1 minute bar (the 13:44 bar on my chart above). The candle was fully below the 34/50 EMA cloud and had pushed below the previous "break" candle's low for a second. While those are valid points, it did not satisfy my stop loss conditions. I wait for the second candle after the “break candle” to close below the first candle's low on the 1 minute, which this candle did not. Additionally, it ended up closing as a hammer which is typically a bullish sign. After that fourth play, I did not take any more positions for the day. Typically, the last 30-45 minutes of the day are very volatile, especially on a Friday, and it can be very risky trading in that environment. The options that I typically play expire within an hour of close; any misplay will lead to 50%+ losses instantly. However, if I am in a position that goes into the last 30-45 minutes of the day, I will not close it just because it hit that time of the day. Conclusion: I hope you enjoyed this post; it may have been a little lengthy again, but I wanted to detail exactly how I used the principles that I devised to trade. There are 3 key takeaways: 1. The candle stick rules I use to decide when to enter a trade is a good way to catch breakouts while minimizing fakeout risk. It may mean that your entry is not exactly the first bar of the breakout, but the additional safety will help the majority of the time. 2. The rules I devised in scenario 1 and 2 are not limited to Gap and Crap setups. I will use them on whatever a clear breakout opportunity presents itself, including ascending triangles, bull flags, bull pennants, symmetrical triangles, falling wedges, cup and handle, inverse head and shoulders, etc. 3. Always make sure you set stops at entry if you reach a take profit level and sell a portion of your contracts. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. I will try to read all of them :) Have a great day and I wish you well. -Granolabar
AMEX:SPYEducation
by granolabar_trades
4