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Gapfill

E2M - ASX Gold/CopperRule of thumb is gaps get generally get filled, looking to take some profits off the table at the yellow trend line then ride the rest. RSI poised for a break out with Bullish divergence. I believe commodities are pretty close to breaking out and i don't mind this for a near term trade, there is still a chance for more downside action but long term PMs will rise significantly. E2M has more drill results inbound so hopefully they can produce some numbers to help along the trade. (Not financial advice- DYOR )
ELong
by DylanWikki
ENB Gap BuyInsert whichever narrative you like, problems on line 5, oil ripping past 60$, or there is a gap near 43.00. I would like to buy more ENB, but I would rather buy nearer to 40/43 where the yield is much better and it would not push my cost average to much higher. Also that wick-up that occurred a few days back. Doesn't always happen, but I find in many markets, those long wicks tend to get re-tested and sometime break lower for a bit before the market has decided to follow the path of said wick. Ideal buy would be between now and next ex-dividend date, but of course buying ex-dividend can yield a superior buy-price.
TSX:ENB
by JJMa
Granolabar's Gap and Crap principles TESTED (2/26 Trade Recap)Introduction In this post, I explain how I utilized the Gap and Crap principles to trade SPY on February 26th, 2021. Recently, I made a post titled "Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)." The post is linked below. In it, I outlined my strategy for trading gap downs. I highly recommend you read that post before this one to understand the references I am making. In the post, I detailed a specific way to trade gap downs using a system of candles and EMAs. The most important part of the strategy is not necessarily the gap down aspect but the conditions I used to determine entries. Specifically: -------- "To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here. Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles. Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall." -------- I will proceed by explaining my thoughts on exactly what was going as I was watching the market. (Note: stops at entry means that I set a stop loss at the price I originally purchased the option for, meaning that it will sell for breakeven price. This is important later on.) Trade 1: After getting on Tradingview in the morning and opening up the 5 minute SPY chart, I quickly noticed that SPY did not move at all overnight. Despite the lack of a gap, we could still trade with similar principles. I first drew the resistance at premarket high (yellow) and premarket low (blue) as well as a minor support (white). Identifying these support and resistance levels, as well as any applicable trendiness, are an important part to trading successfully. Keep in mind that the cleaner these lines are, the better they will act as critical levels. The first few candles after market-open were just chopping between the minor support line and the premarket high; nothing closed above or below either, so there was nothing to be done there. Do not force a play!!! You do not always have to be doing something in the market. Oftentimes sitting on your hands is the best thing to do. The next candle is when I went on high alert mode. It ended up not only closing under the minor support from premarket (that happened to hold for the first 20 minutes of the trading day), but it also closed below the 50 EMA. At this point, I was just waiting for the next candle which immediately pushed below the low of the first candle, giving the entry signal (Scenario 1). For this play specifically, I kept my stop loss at the premarket high (good resistance) and my target was the premarket low since there wasn’t any major support until then. Once SPY hit the premarket low, I scaled out most of the position and left stops at entry for the rest. Trade 2 The next play came immediately after when the following candle closed right below the premarket low. This candle was followed by a slight pullback, so my conditions for entry changed to a new candle closing below the previous low (Scenario 2). To remind myself, I marked the bottom of the break candle with a white line. This image was from that moment and shows exactly what I was thinking (I don't have the replay feature for any timeframe less than the daily). A few candles later, a candle closed under the break low. This marked the entry of a short position, with the stop loss set at the premarket low (blue line) since it previously acted as a critical level. I decided to start scaling out after seeing a small inside bar green candle, which is typically a reversal pattern. Since I took profit on part of the position, I made sure to set stops at entry for the remaining position. This ensured that the play finished green; it is not worth it to risk the remaining position going negative and cancelling out the gains. If the market takes another turn down from there, just consider reentering a new position. I will continue reiterating this concept since it is crucial for this fast paced trading style. Trade 3 After exiting trade 2, I did not play the break of the premarket low from the bottom up, but it would have been a good scalp also. Theoretically speaking, this was how it would have played out if the rules were followed. The play I did take, however, was the break of the premarket high a little later. Again similar principles: closed above the line, the next candle immediately pushed higher (Scenario 1), and the stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 cloud on the 1 minute chart. In this play, I scaled out due to a red inside bar; again, I left stops at entry after scaling out the first time to ensure the play stayed profitable. Trade 4 This trade was a slight change of pace; I ended up playing a falling wedge breakout with the same principles. I saw that SPY was forming a clean wedge with the top and bottom trend lines both having 3 solid touches each. The plan was to wait for a break of the 50 EMA (top of the blue cloud in this case) since it typically acts as a support/resistance. The stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 ema cloud on the 1 minute chart, and the price targets were the white and yellow lines from premarket. As soon as it hit the first price target, I scaled out half the position and set stops at entry to lock in gains. The rest were sold at the second price target since the stops were not triggered beforehand. Right at breakout view: Nearing PT 2, premarket highs: To play devil's advocate on my own plan, I am asking myself why I did not sell the position at the 2:44 PM ET 1 minute bar (the 13:44 bar on my chart above). The candle was fully below the 34/50 EMA cloud and had pushed below the previous "break" candle's low for a second. While those are valid points, it did not satisfy my stop loss conditions. I wait for the second candle after the “break candle” to close below the first candle's low on the 1 minute, which this candle did not. Additionally, it ended up closing as a hammer which is typically a bullish sign. After that fourth play, I did not take any more positions for the day. Typically, the last 30-45 minutes of the day are very volatile, especially on a Friday, and it can be very risky trading in that environment. The options that I typically play expire within an hour of close; any misplay will lead to 50%+ losses instantly. However, if I am in a position that goes into the last 30-45 minutes of the day, I will not close it just because it hit that time of the day. Conclusion: I hope you enjoyed this post; it may have been a little lengthy again, but I wanted to detail exactly how I used the principles that I devised to trade. There are 3 key takeaways: 1. The candle stick rules I use to decide when to enter a trade is a good way to catch breakouts while minimizing fakeout risk. It may mean that your entry is not exactly the first bar of the breakout, but the additional safety will help the majority of the time. 2. The rules I devised in scenario 1 and 2 are not limited to Gap and Crap setups. I will use them on whatever a clear breakout opportunity presents itself, including ascending triangles, bull flags, bull pennants, symmetrical triangles, falling wedges, cup and handle, inverse head and shoulders, etc. 3. Always make sure you set stops at entry if you reach a take profit level and sell a portion of your contracts. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. I will try to read all of them :) Have a great day and I wish you well. -Granolabar
AMEX:SPYEducation
by granolabar_trades
4
Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)Introduction Within the past week, AMEX:SPY has become increasingly volatile, with massive gap ups and downs followed by all day runs extending more than 3% in either direction. This is apparent with a cursory glance at the following chart. With this volatility comes uncertainty, especially for those who are swing trading on the timeframe of a few days to a few months. However, we can use this increased volatility to our advantage. i am going to introduce my way of trading these days, particularly the ones involving gap downs. Identifying the Setup Identifying the setup is relatively simple, but there are a variety of factors that can improve your chances of success. Firstly, the stock needs to have gapped down overnight. This one is quite obvious and easy to identify; look for a literal gap in the prices going from after hours to premarket, like those identified in the following chart of SPY. Secondly, there are a few things that can improve the chances of this strategy playing out. For example, if the stock recently hit a supply zone and rejected, the gap down is more likely to be followed by more downside as the stock is already in "pullback mode." Additionally, trendlines are another great thing to keep in mind. For example, SPY recently hit a nearly 4 month long strong trendline and rejected. Generally speaking, the larger the timeframe that the trendline is identified on and the more "touches" it has, the stronger it will be. I often find it useful to work my way down from the 1 month or 1 week chart down to the hourly to identify trendiness that I need to keep in mind. Trading the setup To trade this setup, I like to primarily stick to the 5 minute chart. The one minute chart has too much noise, while the 15 minute takes too long for confirmation that you would miss a sizable amount of the move. Once you are on the 5 minute chart, draw a horizontal line at the bottom of the premarket low, as shown below. This will be the critical value to watch. Theoretically, you want to enter when that line breaks , BUT there are often fakeouts around these critical levels. To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here. Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles. Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall. Let's Talk Take Profit and Stop Losses Now that you have successfully entered the position at an optimal place, the next thing to consider is where you want to exit, whether that is to secure the tendies you just made or protect yourself from further losses. Note, this part is completely up to you and your risk or reward tolerance. Assuming that it all goes to plan the the stock starts to fall: I typically trade weekly options for this kind of play, as it is a short term play. Because options premiums move quickly in both directions, I will take profit at 25% with about half the position if the candles are getting smaller, indicating that the trend may be weakening. Then I will set a stop at open, meaning that I will sell the remaining portion of the position if the contract goes back down to my purchase price; this guarantees that ultimately the play is profitable. However, if the candles stay rather large, I will hold the position until the candles do start to get smaller, and sell half the position there, often around the 50%, 75%, or 100% profit mark. If the option does hit 100% profit, I will almost always sell half, with very very few exceptions. This ensures that even if the other half of my position expires worthless(worst case scenario), I come out of the play completely unscathed. If the play does not go according to plan: Let's assuming that right after you enter based on the conditions above, the stock reverse to the upside. Now the question becomes, when do you sell to prevent yourself from taking major losses. For this I use my EMA clouds, or simply just EMAs with the region between the lines shaded in. I typically have a 5/12 EMA cloud (green) and a 34/50 EMA cloud (blue). As soon as one candle closes above the 5/12 green EMA cloud on the 5 minute chart , and the next candle closes above the first candle, that Is when I take the loss and move on. Often times, when playing this strategy, the price will come back up and retest the break line; do not panic if the position is immediately red, but also stick to the stop loss rules mentioned above. This cloud strategy also applies to closing the last half of the profitable position mentioned above. When you are left with half a position at 100% profits or more, I will wait for reversal to sell. The reversal tends to happen when one candle closes above the 34/50 EMA cloud on the 1 minute, and the next candle pushes past the first high. There are also many other ways to market the bottom, such as bullish divergence, engulfing candle, abandoned baby, etc. TLDR This is my way of trading gap downs that utilizes candle sticks and the EMA clouds to determine Stop loss or Take Profit places. Simply put, buy puts when the price cleanly breaks the premarket low, ride with the clouds until they suggest a reversal or hit a stop loss point. if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to let me know. I would love to hear other perspectives or criticisms. Also, the "clouds" are just EMAs filled in with crayons, but if you want the script, it's in my profile.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by granolabar_trades
30
NNDM Gap Fill?!?NNDM NASDAQ:NNDM is a chart I have been watching for a while and today's massive gap down looks to have found a temporary bottom. I like NNDM as a longer term hold but the current set up look sto be a nice swing play. Adding shares and will look to play some March 19th 12.5 calls. NNDM needs to close above $11.50 today. We have the nice 38.2 fib retracement and 50 SMA lining up on the same price area which serves as a nice support if we can close above. Need SPY to recover as well but I like NNDM as a bounce play here.
NASDAQ:NNDMLong
by DOpeTrades
2
BTC - Trade the trend until It breaks Well BTC is still retaining its bullish market structure and no doubt will continue to punish those who short every new ATH . Everyone seems to be calling for a big correction but lets be honest if everyone is calling for it does that mean they get it . As the title says "Trade the trend until it breaks " and right now there is not much to indicate that the correction is here although of course that can change but until then trade what you have and that is Bullish MS. The CME closed on friday at 55900 so there will be a gap to consider that most likely gets filled when we pull back . If you dont have a position and are looking for a possible entry then this seems like a good area to look for longs . Volume Profile aligns nicely with the 618, 9EMA and the CME Gap . Like and Follow if you appreciate my work ..Posting setups and content daily ..Tyvm
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by SJTRADESFUTURES
1
NOWWhen the markets start slipping it's important to be able to play both sides. Sometimes, you find setups like this one where every technical looks overbought, and theres nothing stopping it from falling. At the same time, we're in a bull market, and although all the signs point down, stocks will go up. I'm taking puts on $NOW due to MACD and RSI curling downwards, an overall shift out of tech, and the imminent correction needed in this stock due to how overvalued it's been! There's also a gap to fill from 546 to 543, with an overall PT of 508 in the coming weeks. Good luck!
NYSE:NOWShort
by Samirp01
2
Celebrate the Chinese new year with BABA tendiesAlibaba has made a nice inverted head shoulders on the daily after coming down from an ATH of 319. You can also see the 21 ema (blue line) crossing over the 50 ema (black line). There is also a nice gap above the 280.97 level to 290. Seeing patterns form on the daily time frame, as well as an ema cross over is what you like to find when looking for an explosive move, the higher the time frame the more effective your technical analysis will be. Major resistance: 280.97, above this level there is a gap to fill to 290 Minor resistance: 273-274 zone Price target: I am planning on taking this trade to 290 and will watch to see how price reacts once the gap is filled, expect a pullback after the gap is filled
NYSE:BABALong
by thefinancialworld
1
Long Term Idea for Intercepts PharmaceuticsHi Guys, I want to show my point of view on ICPT stock, if the actual trend is supported with Volume I think the most conservative target is 60$ because it would try to close the gap, if we want to see it more long term, let's say for the next year a target of 100$ dollars could be reasonable.This Is a small market cap stock so this big movements are very likely to happen. Leave a comment if you want to give your opinion about $ICPT.
ILong
by therealconi