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Gapfill

Veeva SystemsThis is a daily chart of Veeva Systems (VEEV), a healthcare technology company that provides cloud solutions for the global life sciences industry. When the company reported its earnings on August 31st the stock price subsequently gapped down, as shown in the chart above. From a probability standpoint, this gap is likely to be filled for the reasons below. 1. The gap is a monthly candle gap and these usually close. Unfilled gaps on the monthly charts are generally quite rare, especially for assets that have never left a monthly gap before. As shown in the chart below, VEEV has never left a gap on its monthly chart before. 2. The gap is below the lower regression channel line. A regression channel is used to measure how far above or below an asset is trading from its mean. Since price generally tends to mean revert, it's highly unlikely that a gap below the lower channel line, (which in this case represents two standard deviations below the mean), will never be filled. It's more likely that the gap will not only be filled, but will be filled quite rapidly. The assumption I make in using this regression channel is that it is statistically valid and data are normally distributed. If true, then there's only a small probability that VEEV's monthly candle will close the month so far below the lower line of the regression channel. Therefore, it's likely that price will be drawn back up to the mean, and thus the gap will be filled. Here's a close up view: 3. Price gapped below an important Fibonacci level that has been holding, and likely will continue to hold, as support. See the chart below. Here are some close up views: At a minimum, price will very likely push back into the 180s. The quarterly chart shows long lower wicks at this Fibonacci level, indicating that it is holding as support. With further momentum to the downside waning as shown by the Stochastic RSI, there's little reason to believe this Fibonacci level will fail this time. The lower wicks on the quarterly candles are also bouncing off of the exponential moving average (EMA) ribbon, which usually acts as support when price descends to it from above. Strategy With this said, I noticed that someone is already sweeping the call options. They swept hundreds of out-of-the-money (OTM) call options expiring on 9/16 with a $180 strike. Clearly, this buyer believes that VEEV's price is poised to quickly return at least to the Fibonacci support level of $180.97. If you don't know what an options sweep is, it simply refers to an instance in which options are purchased right at the ask price. In most cases, buyers place a limit buy at the mid point of the bid-ask spread or at a lower target price. Market participants usually only buy at the ask price if they're in a rush to buy and/or if they have a high confidence about a certain market move and want to guarantee their entry while also not tipping the market off about their anticipated market move. Sweeps can also refer to when a large buyer wants to obfuscate their entry by splitting their large order into a lot of smaller parts to sweep the entire order book without tipping off the market as they would have if they placed a single large limit order. Understanding sweeps can help you understand what smart money is doing. It's very rare that retail traders sweep the order book because it's very expensive, and for a smaller portfolio (less than a million) it can be extremely risky. Therefore, smart money is usually the market participant who sweeps the order book. Personally, I find this call sweep to be risky (assuming that it's not part of some kind of a hedge) since although we have a high confidence that the gap may close, we don't know within what time frame it will do so. Rather than sweeping a call option with a strike price of $180 that expires on 9/16 a safer though less lucrative trade would be to sell a cash-secured put with a strike price of $180 and which expires on 9/16. Doing this gives you much higher odds of winning but is profit limited. If the price goes to $180 or higher at expiration, you win the full premium since the put you sold will not be exercised. If the price is below $180 but above the breakeven price at expiration, or if the price is below even your breakeven price, then you may be forced to buy shares of VEEV at $180, but you can simply hold those shares until the gap closes (or longer if you think price is going higher). Therefore in this case you still do not lose money, and still make the premium as profit. The only plausible scenario whereby you would lose money would be if VEEV's price continued to plummet and never recovers. Although this would be incredibly unlikely, it is still possible. You can nonetheless still hedge against even this risk by using a put spread to limit loss potential to a ratio that meets your risk management strategy. Therefore you can safely take a very high probability trade while managing risks well. Successful trading is mostly determined by how well you manage risks. Finally, since options are leveraged, one should always try to time their entry as perfectly as possible by using shorter timeframe (hourly or 4-hour) charts, especially if the option's expiration is close. For example, you can see that the 4 hour chart for VEEV is showing momentum building back to the upside. This is what you want to see if you're going to sell a put option strategy that expires on 9/16. These are just my thoughts and they are definitely not meant to be trading advice. As always, anything can happen. September can often be a volatile month and is prone to declines. Options trading is risky and can result in complete loss. Trade at your own risk. If you would like me to post more strategies like this on here leave a boost or a comment below so I can gauge interest. Thank you. If you're new to trading and don't understand the options trading language that I used above, I would recommend Project Finance to learn about options. I learned a ton about options trading from this channel and the content is always high-quality: www.youtube.com If you want to learn more about the basics of trading, you can see my post linked below for 10 rules for successful trading.
NYSE:VEEV
by SpyMasterTrades
22
PYPL - bullish divergencePYPL broke out of an Adam & Eve formation on 27 Jul, then gapped up strongly upon Earnings on 3 Aug. Since then, it has retraced about 38% of it's AB swing up and appear to find support @ 90 where the gap is closed. The stock could be ready to begin another up swing as we are seeing some bullish divergence between price and stochastic. Stops raised to just slightly below $89. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by Juliac
2
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Gap fill on NZDCADTrade Idea: Selling NZDCAD Reasoning: Filled the overnight gap at likely to head lower Entry Level: 0.8016 Take Profit Level: 0.7962 Stop Loss: 0.8031 Risk/Reward: 3.67:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
1
S&P 500 Possible Gap Fill Based On Price Action OnlyDescription: According to historical price action market data market like to fill gaps from 2000 to 2003 and from 2007 to 2009 and 2019 to 2020 as you can see all previous gaps was filled, but this gap has been never fill and now is possible to be filled. The same price action is on others index and stocks Possibility but is not guaranteed: If all this index and stocks decide to fill all this gaps the following is possible to happen but is not guaranteed 3 Examples: Dollar Index: 35.34% UK100: 75.64% Apple: 92.51% Examples: You can use Facebook and PayPal as an example or historical price action market data as examples for a gap fill which happened this year. Warning: This is not a Financial Advice nothing is guaranteed I am not a financial expert or financial adviser I only share my opinion
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn35433302
1
BTC options strategy on BITO (Upside with a Downside Cushion)Have you seen the outlook for BTC? • Rising Wedge with Bearish sentiment • Fractal with Bullish prediction • Bullish on the 2-hour chart • Bearish on the 8-hour chart It can be profitable or devastating to make directional trades. Come what may, we can use options on BITO to capture upside with a downside cushion to quell concerns of volatility. There is a way to build custom options strategies that provide upside with a downside cushion. This particular strat can make up to up to 13% (47% annualized), and only start to lose if BITO falls by more than 33% to below $8.82 as of 12/16/2022. Buy 1 $13 call Sell 1 $14 call Sell 1 $9 put Exp 12/16/22 Limit Price $0.20
AMEX:BITOLong
by oliveinvest
$SAM one of the biggest beer companies in the US.After missing 4 earnings reports the stock has taken quite a hit, down almost $1,000 per share since April 21'. However it found support in the 288 range and bounced aprox. 30% and then a positive earning report beating estimates, 20 day EMA positive crossover of the 100 day EMA supports uptrend as the 20 EMA is appearing to become support. The only problem I see is it is still trading under the 200 day EMA and the trend could also be affected by upcoming earnings in October. Looking at the chart and financials I believe it has 3 gaps to fill on the upside, it is currently trading at 381 and has gaps at 471, 747, and 907 respectively. In April of 21' it was trading at $1,350 at its peak on revenue of aprox. 550 Million, Net Income of 65 Million, and Gross Profit of 250 Million. As of now the company recorded revenue of 616 Million, Net Income of 53 Million, and Gross Profit of 265 Million. As revenue and gross profit has increased and a positive earnings report in July I believe it has room to the upside as the market is driven by financials, all be it net income is still down 10 Million (mostly due to over estimations of Truly Seltzer) it is seeing strength in its ''Beyond Beer'' brands and Twisted Tea expanded its number one position in the FMB category as well as Angry Orchard is showing prominent command in the hard cider category. They are also expecting a launch of Hard Mountain Dew, if consumers take a liking to that and their other brands continue strength I believe it is possible to fill the 471 gap before FY22 ends, as for the other gaps it could take some more time. It is also noted beer sales have a potential to rise in times of economic downturn. I will remain bullish unless it breaks the 288 range.
NYSE:SAMLong
by Wizard_of_Stocks
3
TGT: Bullish outlook!Target Short Term - We look to Buy at 171.59 (stop at 159.63) This stock has recently been in the news headlines. Price action has broken from the previous formation. A weaker opening is expected to challenge bullish resolve. Neckline support is 170.00. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 170.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 199.21 and 210.00 Resistance: 200.00 / 210.00 / 250.00 Support: 170.00 / 140.00 / 90.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:TGTLong
by VantageMarkets
Possible Mega Gap Fill Based On Price Action OnlyDescription: According to historical price action market data market like to fill gaps from 2000 to 2003 and from 2007 to 2009 as you can see all previous gaps was filled, but this huge gap has been never fill and now is possible to be filled. the same price action is on Down Jones, NASDAQ, NIFTY which is India Index, SSE which is China Index, DFMGI which is (UAE), NI222 which is Japan Index and IMOEX which is Russian index they all show similar price action Possibility but is not guaranteed: If all this markets decide to fill all this mega gaps the following is possible to happen but is not guaranteed Down Jones: -99.55% NASDAQ: - 93.89% NIFTY: - 95.63% SSE: - 89.84% DFMGI: - 64.67% NI225: - 77.12% IMOEX: -96.37% Which is currently fell with 53.00% Examples: You can use Facebook and PayPal as an example or historical price action market data as examples for a mega gap fill which happened this year. Warning: This is not a Financial Advice nothing is guaranteed I am not a financial expert or financial adviser I am not saying that this will happen I am not saying that this can happen what I'm only saying is According to historical price action market data Which gap in past was filled is possible current mega gap to be filled also this is what I'm saying.
XETR:DAXShort
by UnknownUnicorn35433302
4
Netflix Eyes the GapDoes anyone remember Netflix? After losing three-quarters of its value between November and May, the streaming-video stock may be trying to claw its way back. The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish price gap on April 20 after the business unexpectedly lost subscribers. NFLX drifted for months after the selloff but is now inching back toward that area. Traders may look for price to fill the gap. Second is the tight price action since the subsequent report on July 19. Notice how pullbacks like July 22-26 have been very shallow, with NFLX remaining above its 8-day exponential moving average (EMA). That may suggest buyers outnumber sellers. This is also potentially seen in the relative strength index (RSI) holding against the edge of an overbought condition. Finally, you have the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This line helped mark the uptrend a year ago, and the downtrend since December. NFLX has been above it for almost four weeks, which may also indicate a change in direction. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:NFLX
by TradeStation
3