AAPL / D1 : exhaustion gap to trap the dumb money ?TIP :
A trend in stocks generally has 3 types of gaps along the way :
1st gap is often a breakout gap to trigger the trend trade
2nd gap is a common gap acting as continuation on the trend
3rd gap generally occurs like a trap at the end of the trend. Trying to show the stock has some more potential when it's already to late. Dumb traders enter, smart money reverses. The gap is generally filled a few days after it occured. Signaling the trend is terminated and that the prices will enter in corrective territory.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Gaps
My earnings analysis on EXELThere is a nice symmetrical triangle pattern that has formed just in time for earnings. A good indication that a decent move is in store for EXEL depending on the ER.
Green box : gap down here into support we could see some buying off the lower trendline and 100 day SMA, or the 200 day SMA if the price gaps that far. The latter being a much stronger area to buy.
Red box : gap up into resistance we could see some selling. However, if the move is strong enough, the resistance at $32.20 could be broken and she moves higher. At that point look to buy the rest off that old resistance, new support.
Let's see what happens tomorrow for earnings.
Good luck :D
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New Intra-Day Gap Indicator. V1 - More Features Coming Soon!CM_Gap_Indicator_Intra-Day_V1
This is a Simple Gap Indicator.
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Long term US Treasuries - A buy, for now...As we fast approach the typical seasonal top for the North American economy it shouldn't surprise us to see the anti-equity-market proxy (bonds) start to look more attractive. While I am not suggesting a trade (low reward to risk ratio on setup prevents me from considering the idea) , I do respect the fact that we may see a nice rally from current levels. Three justifiable reasons suggest to me price wants to revisit the low 140 area in the not too distant future. 1. Inverted Head and shoulders price pattern target (outlined on chart). 2. Optimal Short Trade Entry (OTE) zone currently about 144 to 148 . 3. Gaps near 143 & 145 need to be filled. Put it all together and I can comfortably understand a bond market rally - but as previously mentioned, because reward is about equal to risk I simply can not justify taking a trade....
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