AAPL - stand aside until after earnings announcementI last analysed AAPL on 18th March and my conclusion was that I would wait for a break above the February pivot high before considering a new position on this stock.
This has not occurred and, despite the buzz and excitement around Apples latest earnings announcement today, I will still be standing aside until I get confirmation that this high has been taken out.
While I anticipate AAPL continuing to trend up I expect, at the very least, the daily 50sma to act as better support of price than it has done on this chart in the past. Yesterday's gap up is still below the recent pivot high so there is no reason to enter a buy position on this stock right now.
Gapup
FTNT gaps up on earningsFTNT only has data going back to 2009 and has been in consolidation for the majority of that time. However, it has a good volume of stock traded on a daily basis and is nicely priced at below $50 (making it cheaper to trade than more expensive stocks).
Since breaking out above the 2012 pivot high ($28.82) in December 2014 price did retrace to retest this zone (and the 50sma) in January 2015. A good, linear trend is still to develop. The trend looks to be in the early stages - the 50sma is still being used for support and I would want to see price move away from this before considering a buy here.
Yesterday's gap up was most likely due to the earnings announcement. I would not consider this a good near term opportunity as the bar was a doji/spinning top so neither bullish or bearish. A bullish bar may have persuaded me otherwise, but the likelihood of momentum remaining to the upside in the near term does not present a good enough probability for me.
FTNT is one to look at, again, some time in the future.
GPN breaks above $100GPN has just broken through the $100 mark and the chart patterns suggest price could go higher.
However, when this stock hit $50 (in 2006) it moved into an extremely prolonged consolidation. This lasted until the end of 2013 and the range was deep (between about $30-$55).
For this reason I would recommend sitting tight until the $100 mark is comfortably cleared and reassessing the trend then.
WWAV breaks and retests $40WWAV doesn't have much data but it has been trending up since 2013.
There was a long period of consolidation from September 2014 to February 2015. Although technically the consolidation didn't start until November the November high was only marginally higher - and price pretty much traded within the September pivot high and October pivot low range until the February breakout.
With the $40 round number ahead price may well have stalled before reaching $40, but in fact cleared it quickly - then came back to retest (with a slightly lopsided double bottom chart formation). Yesterday price broke out the more recent pivot high - and on higher volume. However, the breakout was minimal and the bar not as bullish as I would like to see.
WWAV has been trending well since 2013 and there is no resistance until possibly the $50 half figure. Volume is good, too. But, as the breakout bar wasn't overly convincing, I would wait for a clearer indication that the trend was continuing before buying this stock.
Is MDVN uptrend becoming established?MDVN was a possible long for me back in November 2014. Price had broken above the $100 figure and retested it with a bull flag formation and I felt this was enough to propel price higher (which it did, marginally, a few weeks later).
However, the move could not be sustained and price came back down to retest the $100 figure on several occasions - most notably to form a slightly skewed double bottom which just breached support.
Last week this consolidation/pullback zone was broken with a gap up (on higher volume).
Price now seems to be trending again and, with no resistance ahead, this could be a good (but early) opportunity to buy this stock. Longer-term traders may want to wait a little longer to see the trend become more established.
KR bull trend continues after pullbackI posted on KR just a couple of weeks ago (18th February) making a big case for entering long into this stock if you weren't already in it. The next bar saw price continue to rise - followed by 10 days of pullback!
However, the 50ma held strong (with a hammer reversal candle just below the $70 round number) and any long-term position with a reasonable stop loss would not have been stopped out - and traders are now be seeing a reward for their patience.
This was a deep pullback for KR - which has been trending in a very linear fashion for many months. But not too deep to cause concern. And now price has continued in its uptrend we can see the advances of longer-term trading and a bit of patience.
CRL breaks out on higher volumeCRL is a stock which has recently appeared on my watchlist after comfortably clearing the double top formation from 2008. It had begun to trend well prior to this (since the golden cross in September 2014 - although price did retrace to retest the 200ma a few weeks later).
The gap up on 11th February saw price convincingly clear the $70 round number and recent pivot high but, due to this being a major resistance zone, we wanted to wait for further confirmation of the trend. There was no retest of the $70 zone but we have had two bull flags since then, so yesterday's breakout bar (a very bullish bar on higher volume) gives a very good entry.
The one downside of this stock is the lowish volume. Plus there are several other opportunities today which may provide higher probability set ups.
FSL gaps up yet againI last looked at FSL a couple of weeks ago on the second gap up after the break of 2014 pivot high. This gap up on 13th February was not a convincing one (due to the indecision candle) so the subsequent pullback was not unexpected. However, the gap did not get completely filled - and yesterday's gap up (on higher volume) comfortably cleared the most recent pivot high.
Reasons to take a buy position on this stock are:
* breakout bar is bullish
* uptrend since end of January
* trading above weekly and daily 50ma and 200ma
* higher volume on gaps up
* break above recent pivot high
* break above $40 round number
The main reason against taking a trade on FSL is that there is only a few years of data so we cannot see how price has behaved in the past to major market events. In addition, for near-term trades the previous two gaps have not provided an opportunity as price pulled back from the high of the breakout bars. However, neither of those two bars were bullish so this gap up should be taken on its own merit.
Disney comfortably clears $100Since breaking above $100 a few weeks ago DIS has been on my watchlist. The first opportunity to enter was after the first bull flag/retest of the $100 figure - as this showed resistance turning into support.
This may have been a little early to be confident that the gap would hold - but either of the subsequent breakouts offer more solid conviction that the trend is holding.
Overall this stock has been trending well for a few years - but it is susceptible to slightly deeper (than is comfortable) pullbacks. However, with a reasonable stop (which allows for this movement) we would only have been stopped out a half dozen or so times if we had traded DIS over the last 3 years.
So, going forward, this is a good buy opportunity but be ready to accept deep, but manageable, pullbacks.
IPGP gaps up on higher volumeIPGP is a possible near-term buy opportunity. It is not trending well so is not a longer-term trade right now.
Yesterday's gap up offers a near-term buy due to the increase in volume on both this and the previous bar. Friday's bar (6th February) was actually more bullish and broke out above the strong resistance (at $78.59) and above the round number ($80). Yesterday's bar gapped up (showing strength to the upside) but was not bullish (a possible indecision or reversal candle). A retest and/or gap fill may transpire.
However, there is no further resistance ahead - although earnings are due on 20th February. Even for a short term trade this may be cutting it fine (to make a profit) but is not unreasonable.
GPC double gap upGPC has spent most of 2014 in consolidation. The high of February proved to offer very strong resistance and price tested it a couple of times before finally breaking through. Once resistance had turned into support the uptrend has continued with some momentum.
On the daily chart there was a bit of stickiness around the $100 figure but now there is no specific resistance ahead. Last week Thursday's bar gapped up with higher volume and a bullish bar. This looked like a good near-term buy opportunity but the following day price gapped up again on higher volume - but this time with a bearish bar.
This could still present a good near-term buy but with the Christmas break fast approaching I will stand aside on this one - for now. I may look at it again next year for a longer-term trade.
CTAS gaps up but approaching $80CTAS has been in good uptrend for some time but had a fair bit of resistance to tackle before being considered for a long-term buy candidate.
At the end of 2013 price finally broke through the 2002 pivot high ($56.62) and the weekly chart shows the subsequent retest (as a double bottom) converting previous resistance into support. Since the confirmation of this chart pattern the bullish trend momentum has continued.
On the daily chart the trend is not the most linear but is adequate. Friday's gap up was an extremely bullish bar with higher volume (on the earnings announcement). If it weren't for the $80 round number (and the Christmas break) up ahead I would consider this a near-term long opportunity.
KMX gaps up to new highOverall KMX is not a great trending stock but has been in a bullish move for many years. So today I would only look for a near-term buy opportunity even though it has been trending well since breaking above the 2013 high ($53.08).
In late October price broke above the 2013 pivot high and this time the move stuck. There was a retest to turn previous resistance into support and since then price has continued to move up. On Friday price gapped up significantly (on the earnings announcement) with higher volume and a bullish bar.
The gap was rather large but all conditions point to a good possibility of price moving higher in the near-term (provided the gap isn't filled).
PETM gaps up (again)I last posted on PETM on 19th November when price gapped up past the very strong resistance from October 2013.
At that time I recommended standing aside until this level had been retested. If anyone bought this short-term the trade would've probably broken even or realised a very small profit.
Since then price has come back to retest $77.32 and the pivot held firm - previous resistance has become support. With yesterday's gap up on very high volume this has now become a far better opportunity to buy this stock.
In the near term the only downside is yesterday's bar was fairly bearish. Longer-term there is now support at the $80 zone (with the recent pivot high just below this at $79.68) and beyond that major support at $77.32.
CNC gaps up with bull flag above $100CNC gapped up on Friday, despite the overall bearish move on the US Indices. This was a quite significant move as there are a number of reasons to support a continuation of the uptrend - in the near-term at least.
Firstly, price gapped up above 3rd December high of $101.83 and the $100 figure. Second, this also confirmed a bull flag formation or, if you prefer, there was a reasonably even double bottom pattern. Finally, there was higher volume on the breakout bar.
Overall CNC is in a bull trend. There have been a couple of pullbacks which have been on the deep side since the weekly uptrend began in May but I would not look to take a longer-term position right now anyway (until $100 has been retested). Near-term, however, the signals are good for a continued move up so a small profit could be made here.
ORLY gaps up but approaching $200I have posted on ORLY before (in early November) and since then it has gone on to experience a lovely linear trend.
After the first gap up I was waiting for a pullback followed by a breakout to enter the trade. This happened on the day of my last post so I was able to enter on the next bar. Yesterday's gap up added to my equity so overall I am happy with this position.
To trade ORLY now (if I didn't have a position open) I would only consider a near-term buy as price is rapidly approaching the $200 figure. But a quick profit could be made as the set-up looks good. The bar was bullish and on higher volume. The overall trend is up and linear. The breakout bar confirmed a bullish flag and, hopefully, $190 could act as support (which would stop the gap being filled).
However, while the bar is bullish (giving momentum to the upside) it is a reversal/indecision candle so if you do want to trade this make sure your stop is tight.
RCL gaps up on higher volumeUntil earlier this year RCL had been in consolidation since 1999.
After price finally broke above $58.88 a good trend began to develop but was seriously hindered by the October pullback. This breached the 1999 pivot high and the 200dma but it was not all bad news - a cup and handle chart formation developed on the daily chart suggesting a move to the upside could continue.
The first gap up (28th November) was maybe a smidgen early - although perfectly valid as previous resistance had been tested to become support. The current gap up, however, is on very high volume and a bullish bar so a good candidate for a near-term buy.
A longer-term buy may also be on the cards but more cautious traders may want to see a bit more of the trend develop before making a long-term commitment. The longer the consolidation then the bigger the breakout - if this holds true there should be a lot more to come from RCL.
FDX gaps up with bearish barsFDX has been moving up since it's 2009 low but took some time to regain the ground lost from the 2007 high - with a long period of consolidation along the way.
Since breaking above the 2007 high ($121.42) late in 2013 price has still struggled to fall into a linear trend. However once price broke - and retested - the $150 zone a smoother trend has developed.
In the last couple of weeks FDX has gapped up three times on higher volume. While this should indicate strength, to the upside, the move as been most peculiar - each breakout bar has been bearish.
For this reason it may be prudent to wait a while to see how the trend develops. This may mean standing aside until $200 is cleared.
ESRX clears $80The markets were skittish yesterday so the breakout list today is not the best.
As a longer-term trader I would not want to trade ESRX. While this stock has been bullish for years the pullbacks can be very deep. Trends only last at the most for a few months. However, this may suit other traders who like to trade shorter-term.
The first gap up passed $80 (and on higher volume) so was a good opportunity to buy this stock. A second gap up soon followed but not, this time, on higher volume - so the entry was a little murky. Getting into a trade here could be difficult. But, if past data is anything to go by, the uptrend could last a few more weeks.
If you like a bumpy ride the next set-up for a long position could provide a near-term gain.
SAVE gaps up above $80On one of my other posts today I looked at LUV - another airline. LUV offers both a long-term and near-term buy opportunities. For SAVE, however, I would only consider a near-term opportunity.
SAVE had a good breakout and retest after breaking above the September high. It has now gapped above the more recent November high and $80. However, I do not have much data on SAVE (it only goes back to 2011). This is adequate for a near-term trade but not, for me, a longer-term one. Volume is also a little on the low side (although up on the breakout).
Overall, while this chart looks promising and I anticipate price going higher, I do not want to overcommit to one sector and I prefer LUV. If this were not an aspect of my trading plan then I might consider a long-term long on LUV and also a near-term long on SAVE.