NICE Ltd: Seeking Value While Riding The AI WaveKey Rationale:
Profitable technology firm with a track record of commercializing AI. World leader in two industries primed for significant growth, with a comprehensive suite of products and a treasure trove of historical data for AI training. Solid Growth profile and five-star valuation make it an ideal GARP investment.
Company Profile:
A tech powerhouse that’s quietly revolutionizing customer engagement and financial crime solutions. NICE Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud platforms for AI-driven digital business solutions worldwide. Nice is an enterprise software company that serves the customer engagement and financial crime and compliance markets. The company provides data analytics-based solutions through both a cloud platform and on-premises infrastructure. Within customer engagement, Nice's CXone platform delivers solutions focused on contact center software and workforce engagement management, or WEM. Contact center offerings include solutions for digital self-service, customer journey and experience optimization, and compliance. WEM products optimize call center efficiency, leveraging data and AI analytics for call volume forecasting and agent scheduling. Within financial crime and compliance, Nice offers risk and investigation management, fraud prevention, anti-money laundering, and compliance solutions. NICE Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Ra'anana, Israel.
Comments:
One of the best available Ex-U.S. stocks.
Narrow Moat, Exemplary Capital Allocation.
NICE’s long-term vision aligns with the AI revolution.
Recently beat on top-line and bottom-line estimates.
Recently announced a New $500 Million Share Buyback Plan.
5-Star Valuation on Morningstar, NICE is trading at a 36% discount.
Incessant selling is unwarranted and partially due to a CEO transition.
Multiple industry analysts rank NICE as a major player with the best technology.
Cloud Company with actual Profitable Growth, making NICE an intelligent investment in AI.
Publicly traded since 1996, NICE is not some hot new flash-in-the-pan AI IPO, it's got staying power.
CXone Mpower is the Ultimate CX-Aware AI Offering, Providing Continuous, Memory-Driven Human and AI Collaboration.
They are developing a moat around their AI offering due to the sheer scale of the number of transactions they perform each month.
Nice has strong user retention metrics, and cloud growth means greater recurring revenue.
Cincinnati Emergency Communication Center Leverages NICE to Improve Operations.
Italy’s Police Deploy NICE Inform at All Control Rooms Nationwide for Incident Intelligence.
Named the Leader In 2024 IDC MarketScape for Contact Center as a Service Report.
Named the Conversational Intelligence Market Leader in 2024 Opus Research Intelliview Report.
Recognized as Category Leader in the Chartis 2024 CLM Solutions for Corporate and Investment Banking Vendor Landscape Report
Proprietary Scores:
GreenBlue Cumulative Rank: 196/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenBlue Current Rank: 509/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenRed Current Rank: 348/499 (Lower = Better)
Gurufocus Score: 95/100 (Higher = Better)
Stellar Profitability, Growth, and Quality scores for a foreign company in GreenBlue (138, 488, and 233 out of 2982)
Competitors:
CRM, INTU, NOW, CDNS, SHOP, ROP, ADSK, DOCU, GWRE, TWLO, FIVN, RNG
Risks:
Foreign companies have embedded geopolitical risk.
Larger AI competitors eat their lunch. Microsoft's push into the contact center will increase competition.
Nice is undergoing a cloud transition, and the timing of legacy customer migration and degree of success on this front remains to be seen.
Prior personal investments in software application companies have been very risky. Failed investments include FIVN, RNG, and TWLO.
Garp
ResMed: Margin Of Safety Gives Investors A Good Night's SleepResMed Inc. is a leader in digital health and cloud-connected medical devices. ResMed is one of the largest respiratory care device companies globally, primarily developing and supplying flow generators, masks and accessories for the treatment of sleep apnea. Increasing diagnosis of sleep apnea combined with ageing populations and increasing prevalence of obesity is resulting in a structurally growing market . It has multiple growth drivers ahead of its 2025 goals. Better supply and production trends this year should help meet growing demand, leading to higher revenues and profitability.
NYSE:RMD is a GARP story. Growth at a reasonable price has never been cheaper in this company's history. After the stocks nearly 55% decline, Morningstar gives it a 5-star valuation score with Fair Value at $258. Today it's trading at $148.
The company's focus on fundamentally-driven growth, top-tier products addressing modern health issues, and strong moat, and exemplary capital allocation make it an appealing investment.
My model ranks RMD as the 76th best stock to own in the market.
Groupe S.E.B. SA (SK.PA) of France: EPS rising.S.E.B. SA (SEB) (Symbol SK.PA), is a global supplier of Kitchen and household equipment. (White goods) Brand names include include All-Clad, Krups, Moulinex, Rowenta, Tefal and WMF Group. They make non-stick cookware, bakeware, stainless roasters, coffee machines, tea machines, juice squeezers, meat cutters, food vacuum packs, bar-tender equipment, beer servers, blenders, bar-b-q equipment, food warming plates, cookers, bread-making machines, crepe and waffle machines, ovens, microwaves, boilers, kettles, coffee pots and servers, chip machines, electric cooking pots, toasters, vacuum cleaners, air filters, robotic cleaners, steam irons, electric razors, head, ear, and nose hair trimmers, soy-milk makers, air purifiers, pressure cookers, pans, saucepans, frying pans, table cookers snd warmers, cutlery, knives, cutters and slicing devices, weighing machines, scales, and hundreds of other practical household goods.
Whilst the chart of the share price is not giving off any particular buy or sell signal, the shares do look attractive on fundamentals. Here are the things which I like:
SEB has a Track-record of increasing turnover: organic sales growth in the three years to 31 Dec 2018 was +6.1%, +9.2%, +7.8%. In the Q3 2019 results the company said: “ Organic sales growth now expected between +6% and +7% vs. over 7% as announced at end-July”
Rising dividends: the dividend has risen by 9% p.a. over the last 10 years. The 2018 dividend was EUR 2.14, vs 2017 of 2.00, an increase of 7%. Given the forecast of increased earnings for 2019, I am expecting the dividend will continue to be increased. Whilst the dividend of 1.57% is not high, it seems both secure and growing. Certainly it is attractive compared to the interest on cash deposits or bonds.
The Dividend is well covered by earnings: the 2018 EPS were EUR 8.38, nearly four times the dividend of EUR 2.14. This leaves plenty of scope to keep increasing the dividend.
SEB is Increasing its earnings per share (EPS): Reported EPS over the last 5 years have been as follows: EUR 3.45, 4.14, 5.15, 7.50, and 8.38. Given SEB’s own recent forecast of a 6% to 7% rise in sales for 2019, I think profits and EPS should increase again this year. The company said in its Q3 2019 report, Outlook section, that it expects an increase in “Operating Result from Activity” of around +6% for the full year.
SEB has a Modest Price/Earnings (p/e) ratio: The share price (at the time of writing on Monday 30th December 2019) is EUR 133.50. With 2018 EPS of EUR 8.38, this gives us a trailing p/e ratio of 15.93, in line with the market and relatively cheap for a company with prospects of above average growth. That’s equivalent to an earnings yield of over 6%. Not bad considering alternatives like cash deposits in EUR.
SEB is a Mid-size company. The market cap is EUR 6.8 billion. Mid cap stocks are often over-looked by analysts, until they suddenly have a spurt, and become large-cap. Despite the rises in EPS, the shares have not participated in the 2019 rise in share prices. The share price stands at around the same level as two-and-a-half years ago. In my opinion this means the shares are over-looked.
Trading the shares is relatively easy. The average daily trading volume represents around EUR 8 million.
SEB has hundreds, if not thousands, of products. I prefer companies with multiple products or services. If one goes out of fashion, then another may be coming into favour. It’s kind of a safety net, so you know that you are not going to find that a large competitor has suddenly made something better than its only product. It won’t turn out to be the next MySpace or AltaVista.
The kind of products being sold by SEB are not going to go out of fashion. Housewives are not going to suddenly stop cooking their food or vacuuming the floor. We will always use toasters and coffee machines, ovens, trays and blenders. We will always need pots, pans, fryers, and so on. It’s relatively low tech stuff, but the demand is growing as the world becomes more affluent. Once you have used a Teflon non-stick frying pan, it’s hard to go back to the old style pan.
Conclusion: SEB has a lot of attractive features for investors. If this was a larger company, the multiple would probably be over 20X. With growing sales and EPS, it has the potential to become much larger. You may need to be patient, but for long term investors it has the kind of features you should be seeking.