SPY Update (weekly chart)Quite a bull run, last week we hit the Point & figure (P&F) target of 443 set long ago.
The current run appears over-extended, being at the top of the channel set from the October 2022 low to present. Also, the RSI(9) on daily and RSI(12) on weekly (neither shown here) are overbought. The B to C run at 1.68 % extension also is showing some excess over the theoretical Gartley 1.618 move. Also, SOX and SMH are showing some signs of rolling over.
After touching the 443 P&F target, the week fell back and closed out at 439.46, below the APEX of the volume profile (red arrow on the right). Potential resistance.
I am liking the prospects of a pullback next week from C to D to 412.26, or around the 50% retrace line (drawn from 2022 high to low) at 414.04. That would be about 6% pullback.
Of course, the bull run could continue next week, at which point I would expect an intermediate top out at 454.05, or prior swing high. Given paragraphs 2 and 3 above, I don't expect this next week.
Are we in a new bull market? We are getting there, but I remain cautious.
