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GAS

$BTC short idea Plan and Trigger This is not a prediction this is a plan.. If this happens do this.. The plan here is IF BTC 1. breaks below PWO - Previous Week Open, 2.Breaks below rising Trendline, 3.Breaks below R2-H (Range 2 High(thats the trigger to go short with Targets marked on chart. Target 1 = R1-L (Range 1 Low) Target 2 = R2-Mid (Range 2 Mid) Notice the inefficient and fast move up noted on the chart. these usually get filled so if we trade in to this candle range i suspect a fast down move to follow.
by gillman_hugh
The Price of Freedom: NS2 pipeline cf German base energy pricesThe Nord Stream 2 runs through the Baltic Sea from the St Petersburg region (Russia) to Baltic Coast in north-east Germany. It can transport 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year from Russia to Germany, enough to power 26 million homes for a year. Europe's total consumption of Russian gas per year is approximately 200 billion cubic metres per year, which accounts for about 40% to 50% of Europe's energy consumption. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline completely bypasses Ukraine. Prior to the war Ukraine was earning approximately $1.2 billion per year in gas transit fees from Russia to the EU through its territory. Construction of the pipeline began in 2016. In Jan 2019 US ambassador to Germany threatens sanctions on companies participating in Nordstream 2 construction. In December 2019 these sanctions are passed into law. Merkle labels these sanctions when they passed as US interference in EU internal affairs. July 2020 NY Times article provides a good explanation of the tensions between the USA and Germany over the opening of the Nordstream 2 pipeline : www.nytimes.com Pipeline construction was completed in September 2021, but Germany did not approve gas to start flowing. In the same month, NATO and Ukraine conduct joint military exercises. In December 2021 Russia threatens military action in Ukraine. Things escalated, as we all now know. Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late Feb 2022, Germany (finally) suspends the Nordsteram 2 pipeline. German energy base energy prices per megawatt hour have gone from 50 euro since the announcement of US sanctions on Nordstream 2 in 2019, to 150 euro in September 2021 when Ukraine and Nato conducted joint military exercises, to 300 euro after Germany announces in August in has no plans to open Nordstream 2. Contract at the time of this writing is at 420 euro, up 8x since the US announced sanctions on Nordstream 2 in Dec 2019. In April 2022 when it became clear to me that NATO was willing to put its populations under extreme energy duress and significant security duress to retaliate against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I placed bets on unlisted US defense companies. In retrospect, having caught up on the history of the Nordstream 2 pipeline conflict, with the US and Ukraine aligned against Russia and Germany caught in the middle, as well as the sheer scale of the EU's dependence on Russian gas, the cleaner bet would have been on German base energy prices. The 12 month energy contract is actually trading at 1,000 euro. I.e. the 12 month spot / futures basis is telling us that even though prices are up 8x from Dec 2019, this is about to get far far worse. The question now is how much pain can EU citizens bear before they say enough is enough and cut a deal with Russia. At the moment they are sustaining a huge amount of pain and and still holding up, they have probably surprised Russia (and themselves) with their willingness to bear the pain. However, winter is coming and it's not going to be pretty. It's possible the EU is willing to (or has no choice but to) completely obliterate its economy to wean itself off from Russian gas rather than cut a deal with Russia. If that's the case we can expect energy prices to remain high, perhaps even pump further At some point there will be enough incentive though for supply to flow from US, maybe Africa, and arrest the rise in prices. This may be coupled with US aid to Europe to cover their gas bill as European allies ask for help in continuing the economic war. It would be plausible for big aid to be forthcoming as it would essentially be taxpayer money that would essentially flow to the US energy producers, and so far the tax base in the U.S. seems supportive of continuing the war on Russia. Signs to look out for are signs that both EU and US electorates are tiring of the cost of waging this war. If these signs emerge as German baseline prices continue to rise, this might be a good time to place a short on energy prices. Any signs of Germany agreeing to start gas flows through Nordstream 2 might also be a good opportunity to place a short Of course, energy markets are highly efficient so my main concern with this strategy would be inside information or simply people closer to the national policy movements underway that might signal a fraying of resolve in maintaining the economic war on Russia, at least as it relates to energy.
NYMEX:DEB1!Short
by a_trader_anon
1
KRP fed can only do so much with interest rates , this is supplyKRP is in a great position as a light weight royalty company that allows them to have all the benefits of higher oil prices with the protection of futures in the correct way. very well managed and has been on the radar for a while theory: oil companies are in the best position right now between economy and business. they hold all the cards and dont have to do much to kep supply tight. fed raising rates does not help supply issues. it can help demand side but the rising interest rates on a supply issue are like a secondary knock on effect. not always super effective. oil will remain high and because of that their cash flow will stay strong relative to the rest of the market. if market meltdown then model obviously shifts but if the wheels stay on , things look reallyyy good . $20 has been a tough resistance to break , if that breaks this thing could rip . not financial advice
NYSE:KRPLong
by DSR97
NATURAL GAS Weekly ForecastNATURAL GAS Technical Analysis Chart Update Time Frame - Daily According to Long Time Frame #LTF we have BULLISH CHANNEL Pattern and it is Rejecting from the Upper Trend Line #UTL it can Follow Sell Trend because it Rejected the Bearish Trend with Strong Bearish Price Action We have got ELLIOT WAVES as well in Long Time Frame #LTF it has Completed its Impulsive waves " 12345 " now it will Make Corrective waves " ABC " and Follow Sell Trend In Shorter Time Frame #STF we have Rising Wedge we need to wait for the breakout of the Lower Trend Line #LTL and Retest then we can Enter in Sell We have Strong Selling Divergence according to #RSI in Daily Time Frame #DTF
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by ForexDetective
1
$NFG gas industry leader near breakoutNational Fuel Gas Co l is a diversified energy organization headquartered in Western New York that operates an integrated collection of natural gas and oil assets across four business segments: exploration and production, pipeline and storage, gathering, and utility. The stock is in a confirmed uptrend and has formed a cup & handle with a buy point at $73. Investors Business Daily gives a Relative Strength rating of 92 and Ranks the stock first in its industry. AMEX:UNG had a really bad day yesterday which could affect NYSE:NFG and the rest of the industry. I'll let the price guide me. If it breakouts with heavy volume I'll buy. If not, then I won't buy. Simple.
NYSE:NFGLong
by dpuleo19
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
BOIL Leverage 3X Natural Gas ETF Cup and Handle LONG AMEX:BOIL BOIL is showing a cup and handle pattern at present lending increased probability of a bullish continuation that could yield a 50% price rise over the 45-day width of the cup. Macro and fundamental factors support ongoing natural gas price escalations including the supply issues in Europe, the heat wave from climate change causing and so on. The cup and handle on a relatively long time frame increases both its reliability and the time period for which the pattern to play out.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
Commodities are back, $UNG near breakoutThe natural gas ETF is forming a cup & handle with pivot buy at $31.60. This behavior signals a comeback for stocks in the gas industry. Some of them are NASDAQ:NFE , which I was stopped out in June. NYSE:VET and AMEX:LNG . These 4 are in the top of my watchlist. All are in confirmed uptrends and leading the sector. Several oil stocks also look good but I think that they are just following the gas stocks. I say this as the oil ETF AMEX:USO isn't as near of a new high as AMEX:UNG . Look for stocks with gas exposure.
AMEX:UNGLong
by dpuleo19
2
Natural Gas Futures (NG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 9.276 Pivot: 8.456 Support : 7.557 Preferred Case: On the H4, as the DIF is crossing the signal line and MACD histograms are shrinking above zero, we have a bearish bias that price may drop from the pivot at 8.456 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st support at 7.557, which is in line with overlap support and 50% fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 9.276 where the swing high is. Fundamentals: Western sanctions against major exporter Russia squeezed an already under-supplied global market causing a surge in crude and natural gas prices. Therefore, from fundamental view, the price of gas is rising, we should take note of this confliction with technical view.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Genesiv