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$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG Potential for Upside Within ConsolidationNatural Gas June futures contract continues consolidating within a narrow range: $1.68 - $1.76. A potential for a move higher is seen in the near-term. UGAZ: Based on 1 Hr chart pattern and Chande Momentum indicator, an upside move can be expected within May 26 - 27 timeframe; $20 is seen as first upside target, $22-23 level as resistance, while $15.30 is seen as support. A break below could lead to $14 handle. Multiple consecutive green bars observed between May 22 and May 26 on UGAZ chart, are indicative of potential bottoming out. On Balance Volume (OBV) kept moving lower for both UGAZ and NG throughout May, approaching a potential bottom, with RSI momentum turning higher on 4 Hr chart. This could be a technical sign of reversal. However, NG trading range is narrow with main support at $1.60 and main resistance at $2.0. This trading range may continue in the near-term. June contract settles on May 27th, with last position on May 28th. Higher priced July contract continues after that through June 26th (its settlement). Demand is picking up, although gradually, and still under oversupplied conditions. Based on fundamentals, the overall direction of NG futures is expected to go higher from here, with consolidation to continue into early June. NG forward curve as well as seasonal demand are both pointing toward higher prices. A choppy pattern may continue until we get a forecast for a heat wave to kick off high cooling demand season.
UShort
by tradexchart
May 24 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 2860-2900 Gap; 2975-2900 Balance. Technical: Nasdaq and S&P relatively strong. Russell, Dow, and NYSE are strengthening. Monday we gapped and met resistance at a low-volume area. Tuesday’s overnight broke above the high established on 4/29 and later liquidated, closing on the lows. Wednesday’s overnight rejected Tuesday’s spike and attempt to fill the gap. Friday’s overnight, again, failed to fill the gap, establishing a v-bottom at the $2905 area of resting liquidity. Overall, after Monday’s gap, the market didn’t move much. Instead, it balanced between $2975 and $2900. Similar to last week, the market has been coming into balance, digesting information, building value, shaking out weak hands. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out Friday’s low of $2903.75, targets on the downside include $2870 and $2860. A successful break above $2976.25 has me targeting $3015. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: New-Home Sales; Consumer Confidence; Building Permits; GDP Data; Durable Goods; Initial Claims; Personal Income, Spending; PCE; Advanced Economic Indicators. Next to no inflation for at least 2 to 3 years. bit.ly The requisite for long-term inflation. bit.ly Top buys from money managers include FAANMG, digital payments, e-commerce. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:NFLX NASDAQ:GOOGL Bank fraud in commercial mortgage-backed securities puts the entire economy at risk. bit.ly HY bond spreads reflect expectations of declining default rate. bit.ly Debt issuance decreases risk of near-term defaults. bit.ly Barometer for housing demand has increased for 5 straight weeks. bit.ly Impact on state budgets beyond anything seen during the Great Depression. bit.ly Market crash was a liquidity and re-pricing event. Be wary of further structural issues. bit.ly Financial institutions to change habits, reshape business models. bit.ly Italian credit quality deteriorates as Italy realizes financial hit from the virus. bit.ly Chains like Starbucks seek extended rent cuts, hurting landlords. on.wsj.com NASDAQ:SBUX Oil market will go from over-supply to under-supply. reut.rs EIA expects lower natural gas production in 2020. bit.ly Rolls-Royce to cut 9,000 jobs, warns of a prolonged recovery. bbc.in Uber hones in on core rides, delivery as it cuts a quarter of its workforce. reut.rs NYSE:UBER Cisco earnings reveal a challenging outlook, but credit metrics strong. bit.ly NASDAQ:CSCO Exchanges, market makers eye strong Q2 amid increased trading volumes. bit.ly Senior living and nursing home operators eye financial turmoil. bit.ly Mexican auto manufacturing restarts, a positive for credit. bit.ly Job openings report shows true unemployment understated. bit.ly There is no limit to the Fed’s lending capabilities. bit.ly Takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s ‘60 Minutes’ talk. bit.ly Census survey points to economic suffering across U.S. households. bit.ly Consumer liquidity rises alongside forbearance programs, lower credit card balances. bit.ly Forbearance programs to camouflage weakening bank asset quality. bit.ly Questions about the economy overtake searches regarding coronavirus pandemic. bit.ly U.S. leveraged loan defaults highest since 2014; retail defaults hit record. bit.ly Coronavirus to accelerate ASEAN banks’ digital transformation. bit.ly Cities will force a return to the pre-pandemic status quo. reut.rs Arizona attracts record venture dollars. bit.ly The U.S. would react “very strongly” if Beijing went ahead with Hong Kong security law. reut.rs Amazon to hire 50K temp workers in India as demand rises. reut.rs Deere & Co tops quarterly results, signals recovery as farmers benefit from relief. reut.rs NYSE:DE GM delays resumption of second shift at truck plants. reut.rs NYSE:GM U.S. plans massive vaccine testing effort to meet year-end deadline. reut.rs Sentiment: 29.0% Bullish, 26.0% Neutral, 45.0% Bearish as of 5/24/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,639,866,652 as of 5/22/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 51.2% as of 5/22/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT YM: AMEX:DIA TVC:DJI NYA: TVC:NYA GC: AMEX:GLD CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL NG: AMEX:UNG ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Bombed out Natural Gas Play1. Compare the chart to the Wall Street Cheat Sheet and looks like we're in the Depression phase. Quiet on Twitter and bitter sentiment on LSE/ADVFN, nice contrarian signals and not a crowded trade. 2. POC at 1.4p. Sharp capitulation from January to Mid-March where RSI hit 18 and has recovered slightly. 3. Upcoming catalysts: OGA 32nd Offshore Licensing results expected by end of June 2020. Look at JOG SP reaction from last July. Selene drilling decision and Pensacola well investment decision could drop this year or early next year (both partnered with Shell). Dewar farm-out pending but likely to be delayed for the foreseeable given COVID. 4. ATOW valued at £10.2m, Allenby estimate £12m net cash by end of 2020. Fundraise completed last year, expected to see them through to end of 2021. 5. Broker targets: always take with a pinch of salt, but ultimately these get bandied about by rampers --Allenby re-confirmed in January 2020 a target of 8.3p and 16.7p (based on success for Selene, Pensacola and Dewar (assuming a 50% farm-out of Dewar). 6. "Read-across": ECO investors will know that the SP does react to success in neighbouring acreages (e.g. Guyana) and this could happen re Pensacola given the Darach Central-1 discovery in late 2019.
CLong
by AttilaTheKiller
$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG Bottoming Pattern; Unfilled Gap. Potential bottoming patterns are seen on multiple time frames of natural gas contracts. June Natural Gas contract and Chande Momentum charts show higher lows. NG: However, NG June contract chart is pointing lower due to fundamental factors - economic shutdown and overall reduced demand. If prices hold support at $1.70 on Friday into closing, that would be an encouraging sign for the next week. Otherwise, a correction is possible. From technical standpoint, there is an unfilled gap from Sunday May 17th, up from $1.63 to $1.70 on the open. This gap maybe getting filled in the near-term. UGAZ: Corresponding gap up from May 17th has been filled. However, if NG prices are going lower, possibly toward $1.62-$1.60 support, UGAZ may fall temporarily into $12-$14 range. Otherwise, $15-$16 seems to serve as near-term support.
UShort
by tradexchart
$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG is Waiting for June HeatNatural gas futures contracts NG finished the day lower after EIA inventory report showed a less than expected build of 81 bcf vs 98 bcf predicted. Regardless of a substantially lower build, NG prices dropped 3.3% on Thursday. Short-term momentum turned negative, while medium term momentum is neutral pointing toward consolidation and possibly lower prices. The chart is slightly below 50% retracement of its recent move up, between $1.60 and $1.89. It is the middle of the range. A move in either direction is possible from here. Near-term resistance is seen at $1.75, level of prior support. Major support levels remain $1.70 and $1.60. UGAZ is trading within a range, between $15 and $16, as long as NG holds support at $1.70. Lower prices are possible; more consolidation seems likely before we go higher. The weather is expected to stay within a comfortable range between 60 and 80 degrees, with some heat up to 90 degrees in the Southwest. However, May is considered a shoulder month, when little additional demand is generated at these temperatures. The economy is reopening slowly, with demand growth expected to improve in June, when we switch to trading July contract.
U
by tradexchart
LONG UGA @ $8.50#Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures bottom close here at $.54 as gasoline crack spread (difference between spot price of crude oil & gasoline) looks to be bouncing from lows.. Hourly chart showing capitulation volume & bullish RSI divergence suggesting downtrend weakening $UGA $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 10:53AM CST twitter.com There it is.. #Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures likely long-term bottom here @ $.46 with massive capitulation volume & hammer candle rally back over $.50 or $UGA $8.80.. Expect gasoline futures upside rally to backtest 10dayEMA @ $.80 spot price or $14 $UGA stock price $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 1:27PM CST Playing this upside move with UGA October 16th $16 calls @ 1.00 twitter.com
AMEX:UGALong
by CashFlo_Trading
$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG is Looking for DirectionNatural Gas July futures NG gapped up on the open from $1.63 to $1.75, but then dropped to $1.71. 2 Hr MACD chart crossed forming some sort of consolidation zone. NG is trading higher July contracts. The fundamentals remain bearish: oversupplied condition vs. low demand. For the next two weeks, the weather is not expected to be hot enough to generate substantial demand. Although, the economy is re-opening, we may remain in oversupplied territory at least until June. The US natural gas rig count fell only by 1 (EIA), meaning production is still high. UGAZ: A divergence between price and momentum has been observed on the 2 Hr chart, pointing toward near-term higher prices, or consolidation. RSI is in oversold territory. A near-term resistance for UGAZ is seen at $19-$21 level. NG showed nearest resistance at $1.75. If we can break through this level, then the price can go higher toward $1.8-$2.0. That may bring UGAZ to $25-$27 level, if natural gas prices rebound sharply during this week. Otherwise, lower levels should be expected. If NG stays low for the next 2-3 weeks, UGAZ may drift down into $8-$12 range. The pattern emerging on NG 4 hr chart is reminiscent of the consolidation period between 3/16 and 3/30. New lows are still possible before we go higher. As we are approaching a high cooling demand summer period and re-opening of the economy, natural gas demand is expected to rise, although, gradually. Without sharp rise in demand, or sharp decline in supply, NG prices will remain capped.
U
by tradexchart
1
May 17 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: A simplified analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Monday High; Tuesday Spike, Wednesday LVNode; Thursday Low; Friday Value; Composite Profile; Balance. Technical: There is no clear direction in the market. Nasdaq relatively strong. Russell, Dow, and NYSE are weaker. On Monday, we made it into the $2950 zone of resting liquidity, prior to putting in a weak double top. Tuesday left value behind, liquidating and closing on the lows, which pointed to a continuation lower. Wednesday and Thursday accepted the spike and built a base above the $2760 resting liquidity. Thursday and Friday’s up-action was weak, relative to the earlier selling, and left value overlapping, in balance. With these past developments in mind, the market has been coming into balance over the past few weeks, digesting information, building value, shaking out weak hands. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out Thursday’s low of $2760.25, my immediate targets on the downside include $2730 and $2630. Upside targets include $2910 and $2950. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: Earnings; Housing Starts; Existing-Home Sales, Housing Market Index, FOMC Minutes; Initial Claims. Detailed look at April job losses. bit.ly Georgia’s early reopen has not resulted in a surge of hospitalizations or death. bloom.bg NYSE to reopen trading floor, dampen intraday volatility. on.wsj.com Demand shock to take the upper hand over supply shock, depressing inflation pressures. bit.ly May to join March and April as best months for investment-grade bond issuance. bit.ly Telemedicine popularity means growth for prescription delivery. bit.ly Money managers expect Trump to retake White House in November. bit.ly Slump in aviation hit $GE harder than other suppliers. bloom.bg Canada to extend wage subsidies. reut.rs High-growth companies target America’s heartland. bit.ly Puerto Rico’s economy to benefit if pharma returns. bit.ly High technology North America’s biggest corporate borrower. bit.ly Auto sales are resilient despite coronavirus. bit.ly Low cost, laid-back lifestyle has tech flocking to Texas. bit.ly $FCAU in talks over $6.8B state-guaranteed loan. reut.rs $UBER, $GRUB eye merger. bit.ly Consumer confidence signals cognitive dissonance. bit.ly Fitch expects record downgrades in 2020. bit.ly More than one-third of the workforce was damaged by the crisis. bit.ly Oil market pricing in tighter supplies due to production cuts, rising demand. reut.rs Recovering oil demand could drive the market into deficit by July. reut.rs $FDX CEO more optimistic than most on industrial rebound. bloom.bg Full Saudi Arabian tankers steam towards the oversupplied United States. bloom.bg Though overall economic well-being improved, financial well-being widened. bit.ly $ABBV closes Allergan acquisition, increasing leverage. bit.ly Columbia’s higher fiscal deficit limit points to fiscal deterioration. bit.ly Sentiment: 23.3% Bullish, 26.1% Neutral, 50.6% Bearish as of 5/16/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 951, 835, 268 as of 5/16/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 48.4% as of 5/16/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: ES: TVC:SPX , AMEX:SPY NQ: TVC:NDX , NASDAQ:QQQ RTY: TVC:RUT , AMEX:IWM YM: TVC:DJI , AMEX:DIA NYA: TVC:NYA GC: AMEX:GLD CL: AMEX:USO , AMEX:DBO , AMEX:USL NG: AMEX:UNG ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
UGAZ: Bounced, But Still Forming a BottomNG: Natural Gas June futures rallied on Thursday into EIA report, which showed in-line storage build of $103 bcf. Natural gas stocks were 799 bcf higher than this time last year. The fundamentals remain on the bearish side with low consumption and warming weather. However, the economy is reopening, which is a bullish factor. NG chart dipped after reaching nearest resistance at $1.7 level, still within existing downward trend. Short-term support was found at $1.66. The chart appears to be forming a bottom, bouncing off oversold condition observed earlier on 4 Hr chart. Short-term momentum is positive, medium-term momentum is negative pointing toward consolidation, or lower prices. Support is seen at $1.6, resistance at $1.85. UGAZ: Based on Daily charts MACD, Chande Momentum, and CCI, a definitive bottom has not been formed yet. No divergences between momentum and price, similar to the pattern observed in late March, have been observed at this time. However, 4 Hr RSI chart (not listed here) showed a bottoming pattern at $1.6 NG level. For UGAZ, a level around $16 may hold as support, as long as NG price stays above $1.65 level. Otherwise, $15 handle may correspond to $1.6 level on NG chart.
UShort
by tradexchart
1
UGAZ: Still Looking for a Bottom - UpdateNatural gas futures contracts NG has drifted lower on Wednesday reaching $1.6 with corresponding UGAZ price at $15.27. The NG chart moved a little higher from there trying to establish a bottom. Should we not hold $1.6 level, the next possible level of support is $1.5. In that case, UGAZ may go lower toward $13 handle. Near-term resistance is seen at $1.8 and $1.87. Short term momentum is negative. The fundamentals are still bearish ahead of EIA report, as total consumption per day is expected to decline by 3.9% from 2019 average. Thursday report - 103 bcf build is expected.
UShort
by tradexchart
UGAZ: Looking for a Bottom? Natural gas futures contracts moved lower this week on low demand due to ongoing COVID lockdowns and warming weather. Support seen earlier at $1.72, has been broken. Next possible levels of support are $1.6 and $1.5. Another triple digit injection of around 104 bcf is expected on Thursday (EIA report). Supply-Demand deficit is expected to narrow: April -6.64 bcf/d; May -0.3 bcf/d; June - 1.99 bcf/d. Consumption growth is projected to keep slowing down: April +7.7%; May +0.3%; Jun +0.05% YoY (BlueGold Research). Supply is still stronger than demand in the near-term, unless companies will start filing bankruptcies. MACD crossover for UGAZ on 2 Hr chart is pointing toward lower prices. If NG prices are to drop to $1.5, a bottoming pattern for UGAZ may form this week at around $17 -$15 levels. NG futures are oversold on 4 Hr chart, but may continue sliding on a daily chart. We may see a recovery after Thursday EIA report, once all the news is priced in.
UShort
by tradexchart
Natural gas channel - buy opportunityA nice and clean channel on natural gas. Of course we need to await opening before we (can trade, duh) get confirmation. Breaking the channel would be bearish. At the moment we are hoovering around the 1.75 level that has been a well-battled level over the last two months. You see a lot of noise around there. Await confirmation by seeing gas finding support and trading up, and enter a long. The channel-mid of around 1.9 seems a fair target for profit. With more risk, one can aim for channel resistance. Decide your own enter and exit levels. Trading is not about copying but about forming your own opinion.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by pptw
May 10 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: A simplified analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $2965 Low-Volume Area; Targets $2940, $3015; VWAP Feb ‘20 High, Mar ‘20 Low, and Dec ‘18 Low. Technical: Broad market indices, such as the Nasdaq (/NQ), have shown relative strength, trending higher and experiencing muted liquidations. The Russell (/RTY) took back the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) anchored from the Feb ‘20 high, which also corresponds to its 50% fibonacci retracement level. Above current prices is a low-volume area which developed when participants had solid downside directional conviction. The short term strategy is to fade (short resistance, long support). When you trade into an area of low-volume, then sentiment (directional conviction) has changed and movement is swift. In case of the S&P 500, acceptance above Friday’s late-day spike may point to the subsequent penetration of the low-volume area and swift movement to $3015, the other end of that area. Spending minimal time above Friday’s spike base and high would point to rotation back into the high volume area we are attempting to leave. These high-volume areas are sticky, since they develop when prices slow to satisfy two-sided, rotational trade. Last week I said that if the market reverses and overtakes the initiative activity that created the gap, then sentiment has changed. Well, we reversed. Despite the market moving higher on Tuesday, participants did not have enough conviction to follow through. We left behind a thick area of value and an intraday poor high before selling-off on the Fed Clarida doom and gloom news. Excess was established lower, during the overnight session. The type of selling that occured on Tuesday was not accompanied by new money, left value behind, and offered a good opportunity to sell puts or establish some low-risk long positions. On Wednesday, we sold off again, leaving mechanical looking highs. When the following day retraced that selling, the context was there for repair of Tuesday’s high. All this put together, the most important note to be made is Friday’s continuation higher on terrible economic news. If the fundamental context is crap and we go higher, I’m not going to be bearish. In case of upside, targets include $2940 and $3015. On a continuation lower, targets include $2860, $2820, and $2786, the convergence of significant references. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: CPI; Initial Claims; Retail Sales; Industrial Production; UoM Confidence; Inventories; Producer Prices; Import Prices; Earnings. Moody’s projects retail and apparel spec grade default rate to surge. bit.ly European automakers restart production. Demand pickup remains questionable. bit.ly Shell dividend cut good for credit, but highlights downturn severity. bit.ly ISM non-manufacturing index falls as prices rise on increased shipping costs. bit.ly Market priced in negative U.S. interest rates. reut.rs Second phase of reopening to see turnover and employment impact. reut.rs China is not complying with the Phase 1 trade deal. bit.ly Borrowing plummeted as consumers pulled back credit card use. bit.ly Mortgage forbearance requests plateau. bit.ly Virus shock to reduce some banks’ capital, increase credit vulnerability. bit.ly Industrial Metals Price Index suggests downturn will lack GFC severity. bit.ly Mortgage applications from homebuyers show an improving trend. bit.ly Treasury to issuer longer-dated debt to finance growing deficit. on.mktw.net Sentiment: 23.7% Bullish, 23.7% Neutral, 52.7% Bearish as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 3,754,598,011 as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 44.1% as of 5/9/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: /ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX /NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX /RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT /YM: AMEX:DIA DJCFD:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA /GC: AMEX:GLD /CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL /NG: AMEX:UNG /ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
LONG: EXXON MOBIL CORP. (Petroleum, Oil, Gas)• Ref. the effects of COVID-19 and the OPEC (& Russian) trade disputes fuling the fall of Oil prices. • The FIA halting all motorsport events until JUL 2020 (Austrian Grand Prix). • EXXON MOBIL have a sponsorship deal with Aston Martin Red Bull Racing (Formula1 team) ~ Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc. IPO in Feb 2019 • After the effects covid start to leave the spotlight, we may see the price of petroleum rise and companies such as XOM begin to operate at higher capacities. LONG TERM TRADE -- Optimum target: ~ March/April 2021
NYSE:XOMLong
by infinityPLEX