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GAS

Strong Bearish towards back Multi Year support 1.510$ Last week Price hit multi-year Support level 1.510$ and bounce back from multi-year support, Currently price hit long term downside trend resistance. Next, some month now Demand of Gas VERY LOW as Summer period starts, we will see come next week Price go back 1.510$ support 🛑SUPPORT/RESISTANCE ✅S1= 1.725 ✅S2=1.510 ✴️R1=1.840 ✴️R2=1.920 Please like, share, comments and follow me to get daily base analysis Thank you for your support, I appreciate it.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by Allmypips
Apr 6 - A Short Look Ahead for Oil/UCOPrice is ranging right now within the green box. Support looks like it should hold. There may be larger powers at be that do not want crude to fall back below $25. Decent bounce off $2.50 support. I think it's safe to assume it'll hold for now. $2.78 resistance needs to break in order to continue trend upwards. Ultimately depends on the outcome of the OPEC meeting on the 9th. I believe they'll come up with a solution. It's either they do, or most of the economies around the world go into (deeper) failure.
AMEX:UCOLong
by OptiPulse
4
April 5 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 3-days of balance ($2460-$2525); declining volume; 20-day moving average; 4/2 Low of $2424.75. Technical: On 3/23, the market broke below $2270 (the bottom of a major balance area) and one time-framed higher through 3/26. For that week, multiple profile distributions resembled elongated p-profiles, indicative of short-covering activity. Market stopped one time-framing higher 3/27 and balanced $2525-$2630 with an attempt on Tuesday to break above the 20-day moving average. Market rejected the moving average, and snapped back to the top of a prior balance zone ($2460-$2525). With these past developments in mind, the market has been coming into balance over the past few weeks, digesting information, building value, shaking out weak hands. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out Thursday’s low of $2424.75, my immediate targets on the downside are $2400 and $2350. Upside targets include $2525, $2630, and gap near $2700. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: ‘The Rising Tide Lifts All The Boats’: Survey respondents “overwhelmingly positive about the present economic situation, with many feeling undeterred in their ability to repay debts and travel over the next year” (bit.ly). Update: Job security confidence up after CARES Act passage (bit.ly). ‘We Shall Overcome’: Fiscal stimulus introduced to “prevent mass homelessness, starvation and a wave of business closures not seen since the height of the Great Depression” (bit.ly). This comes on after the Fed compiled savings data showing that “40% of U.S. households would not be able to come up with $400 for an emergency expense" (bit.ly). The stimulus would ideally produce a “V-shaped recovery.” A CivicScience poll shows respondents “would spend a government stimulus payment on bills, necessities, and treats, rather than saving or investing the money” (bit.ly). Note On Distributions: IRS will begin depositing payments in April, but paper checks won't be mailed until the week of May 4, with final distributions occurring August 17 (bit.ly). Also, recent boosts to unemployment benefits may have the unintended effect of incentivizing companies to choose layoffs (bit.ly). However, a PwC survey suggests businesses are confident in their ability to keep employees (bit.ly). ‘Hold Tight’: Unwind of globalization due to tightening supply chains will push up manufacturing costs and prices (yhoo.it). Adding money into the system to aid spending will increase inflationary pressures, pushing yields lower. The expected sharp drop in earnings “coupled with increasing costs could trigger a wave of defaults.” Note that anti-inflationary weapons include rate hikes which could trigger defaults in the face of “a heavily indebted environment.” ‘99 Problems’ And Liquidity Is One: Investors observed disruptions in the U.S. Treasury market evidenced by wide spreads, difficult fills (bit.ly). The Fed announced its intentions to enhance liquidity swap line arrangements alongside 5 other major central banks, helping ease stress as institutions scrambled to service dollar-denominated debts, which sent dollar-funding costs spiraling (reut.rs). Update: Prior tightening has seen alleviation (bit.ly). IMF to mobilize $1T lending capacity to help nations counter the virus outbreak (bloom.bg). ‘The Walls Is Gray, The Clothes Is Orange’: Bill to address the virus shutdown and mitigate the economic impact adds to deficit and tilts outlook down, worsened by a lack in “mandated paid sick leave and universal healthcare, which may necessitate” further fiscal stimulus (t.co). Adding, if fiscal stimulus is successful, higher GDP growth would alleviate an intense “upward trajectory of the federal debt burden.” Debt would remain affordable in the face of low rates, “a key pillar of … fiscal strength.” Additionally, liquidity and functioning credit markets -- alone -- are insufficient in stopping bank asset declines; also, bank credit cost increases will ding profits, but equity, funding cushions are strong. Second Quarter GDP Change Forecasts: -7% Congressional Budget Office, -9% Bloomberg, -25% Citi, -34% Goldman, -38% Morgan, -40% Capital Economics. Comparison: “Between Q3 2008 and Q2 2009, the economy contracted 4.3% on an annual basis.” Read More Here: bit.ly ‘I’m Back’: China and other economic centers in the region are returning to work. That said, data shows the recovery is slow as people avoid social contact. Adding, supply chain activity, energy consumption, traffic congestion remain below normal levels (bit.ly). Also, China’s PMI shot higher, but important to note is that the index monitors the proportion of firms saying activity was higher/lower versus prior month (bit.ly). Unintended Consequences: As the Fed called for use of capital and liquidity buffers to support lending and distribute liquidity, banks acted as if they are or could become constrained. “The big banks faced a dual squeeze – from drawdown of loan facilities / increased financial market intermediation and from the growth in central bank reserves ... - all of which count towards the supplementary leverage ratio in normal times.” Though banks are not the cause of the imminent slowdown, when the economy weakens, they're not counter cyclical either. Example: While $BAC let "mortgage borrowers skip payments, it's also aggressively tightening standards for homeowners looking to raise funds via home equity lines of credit." Talk Of Credit Crisis: The fear that a coronavirus slowdown may cause a credit crisis was ignited after financial conditions tightened despite the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut (bloom.bg). Adding, Bloomberg suggests that signs of stress in the credit market are apparent through multiple channels; credit card and loan delinquencies are appearing on the consumer lending front, while across the world, “Non-bank companies have drastically upped their leverage since the last crisis, as treasurers have taken advantage of historically low interest rates” (bloom.bg). The same article alleges that this increase in debt and leverage is a problem, even in a low rate environment, due to the “profitability drought that is making it harder for companies to service debts.” Highly leveraged banks include JPM (22x leverage), Citi (35x leverage), Goldman (232x leverage), and BoA (12x leverage). See Post Here: bit.ly Refinance, purchase demand higher according to Better.com, a mortgage fintech (bit.ly). 80% of Asia-Pacific companies don’t have high exposure to coronavirus disruptions (bit.ly). Money Market Flows: Sophisticated investors super cautious, while retail less bearish (bit.ly). Dividend Futures: Point to massive slump, but the same markets braced for “far worse slumps in dividends after the 2007-09 recession than” realized (bit.ly). Adding, Goldman dividend per share forecasts price a 25% drop, then breakeven by 2024. Oil Update: Meeting between OPEC and allies to be postponed on mounting tensions (bit.ly). Recap On U.S. Impact: Firms not properly hedged (reut.rs). Basically, producers bought protective put spreads and collars which only hedged from normal (expected) declines. Here are break-even prices for oil producing countries (tmsnrt.rs). Adding, if there was a supply-war truce, two things would happen; first, prices would not return to pre-OPEC levels as demand has deteriorated; second, higher prices would help backstop energy and financial markets, allowing efforts to be diverted to fighting a global financial crisis (reut.rs). Supply Risks: Supply shocks to roll from Asia, to Europe and then North America, "with the worst impact for businesses to come in April and May” (bit.ly). Additionally, an ISM survey indicates that the virus caused supply disruptions for 75% of U.S. companies, leading to a hit in revenues (bit.ly). Cash Is Not Trash: World is fleeing to dollars, pushing up its value relative to other currencies. “This could help the U.S. consumer by making imports cheaper, if imports weren’t disrupted by supply chain constrictions. But with a stronger dollar, U.S. manufacturing will become uncompetitive, and foreign holders of dollar-denominated debt could get pushed into default. Other countries’ import and debt service costs will skyrocket, weakening their currencies and pushing up the dollar even further. The ballooning demand for dollars could lead to a currency liquidity crunch – the swap lines extended to foreign central banks in last Sunday’s Fed intervention were expanded even further on Thursday, a worrying sign that the initial measure wasn’t enough to relieve the strain on the FX markets” (yhoo.it). Margin Called: The holders of MBSs are fielding redemption requests, margin calls (on valuation dips) (bloom.bg). “Invesco Mortgage Capital, a real estate investment trust that invests in mortgage-backed securities, also saying it’s no longer able to fund margin calls. If forced sales accelerate, bond prices could fall and put pressure on other investors to mark down or sell ... holdings." "Real estate investor Tom Barrack said Monday that the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a ‘domino effect’ of consequences if banks and the government don’t take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting." Adding, the Mortgage Bankers Association issued warnings on margin calls (cnb.cx). ‘Money Printer Go Brrrr’: The Fed will buy unlimited amounts of treasury and mortgage-backed securities (wapo.st). The tagged article also discusses a countrywide finance crunch (e.g., Rhode Island to run out of money in weeks) and mass layoffs. Before Market Crash: "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash … Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now” (bit.ly). Adding, firm’s have reduced spending (bit.ly) which may weaken the economy. ‘V-Shaped Recovery’: "While real GDP could be hit through mid-year by cancelled flights and conferences and other business disruptions causing another round of inventory and capital spending cuts, the rubber band associated with a global rebound has been stretching for more than a year now” (bit.ly). Also, see why innovation always wins out during dark times (bit.ly). Survey of Chinese companies showed ⅔ of respondents only had the ability to cover fixed expenses for two months. While China “has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments” (bloom.bg). Carry Forward: In 2019, airlines and auto were expecting their worst year (bit.ly). This came alongside a trade-war induced slowing in factory activity across the G20 economies (reut.rs). Nevertheless, freight and passenger shipments were slowing in 2019 with orders for consumer good hauling trucks dropping 52% year over year and air shipments solidly negative with April 2019 being the first month in which “every region on Earth, without exception, showed lower outgoing and incoming changes in weight, year over year” (bit.ly). Still, in the summer of 2019, the probability of a downturn was “at least 40% due to a falloff in auto sales, an increase in unsold inventory and weakness in government spending” (bit.ly). ‘Climbing Mental And Emotional Stress’: Virus Impact On Work/Life Environment (bit.ly). Sentiment: 34.2% Bullish, 16.0% Neutral, 49.7% Bearish as of 4/4/2020 (bit.ly). Gamma Exposure: -289,385,495 as of 4/4/2020 (bit.ly). Dark Pool Index: 50.6% as of 4/4/2020 (bit.ly). Index Analysis: $SPX: SPCFD:SPX $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: DJCFD:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA $UKX: TVC:UKX $NI225: TVC:NI225 $HSI: TVC:HSI Futures Analysis: /GC: /CL: /NG: /ZB: Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
4
Massive Support zone on NATGAS by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the chart Main items we can see on the Monthly Chart: a) There is a massive Support zone between 1,6 - 1,2 b) This Support has been working since 1992 c) Currently, the price is on 1,6 / The first contact with the support zone d) We think the price will make reversal structures before starting the bullish movement e) This Monthly chart provides us with an idea of a bullish potential of 120% towards the next Resistance zone at 3,7
NYMEX:NG1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
What we are expecting on NATGAS by ThinkingAnts Use this as a guide to develop your view. Main items we can see on the weekly chart: a) The price is on a significant support zone b) We expect a reversal movement based on the previous situations c) If the price goes up respecting previous structures that happened on the past, these are what we will be waiting -Breakout of the descending trendline -Corrective structure of 3 weeks at least, above the broken trendline or on its edge -Our Target for the bullish movement will be the next resistance zone at 2.5
NYMEX:NG1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
The move up is going to be more violent.This move down was from panic selling due to everyone thinking the coronavirus will be here forever. What everybody doesn't know is that active rigs will shutdown at faster rate this time than ever. Already we have active rig count down by 20 this week to 667. If we have 80 to 100 active rigs shutting down a month it will also hurt supply which should balance the current demand. The question is when the coronavirus passes how many active rigs will we have left? My prediction is at that time active rigs will be down to 250 - 300. Meaning US supply will be down to about 5-6 million barrels a day while demand is coming back strong. China was able to flatten out the curve on coronavirus within 3 months. US will most likely do it in 60 days. Also in between people will most likely be getting checks from the government which will expands the currency supply dramatically. I believe that we are going through a one way door were inflation is going to run very high to the point we never go back to what we believe is normal. You will likely see $10+ a gallon of oil soon. Another thing is we have no gold standard right now meaning they will do whatever it takes to print the currency as much as we need and give it to the people. They will fill every cracks will currency for sure. I truly believe we will have the worst stagflation like Japan.
FX:USOILLong
by BigPippinSpendingGs
9
Biggest bear market in dollar that could lose it's statusI believe the biggest bear market in the dollar is coming soon and because of that dollar could potentially won't the world reserve currency in the future. Holding the dollar right now is the dangerous thing you can do even though everyone seems to be taking their money out of the banks. Might be safer to put some in miners, gold, silver and all commodities. Eventually all commodities prices will mean revert due to being suppressed down for so long. Paper is trash. GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR IMO!
TVC:DXYShort
by BigPippinSpendingGs
3
Oil ComparisonsOXY has the majority of its EV tied up in oil/gas and with the recent OPEC fallout it may make sense as a long. More research on extraction costs should probably be done because there may be a serious problem for the firm if oil prices are kept low and operations are not profitable. A minor portion of noncurrent assets is in chemicals and marketing but not enough to say it will determine where the firm will go in terms of price. Carl Icahn increased his stake to 10% but this may have been more of averaging down his position since he originally entered near ~$60 a share or in that region so buying in at around $14 a share would mean more control in the firm for less of an investment. Short term I expect dividends to be slashed, I will be very surprised if they post net profit at the next earnings as the oil price shock should have killed their margins. Intermediate to long term, potentially an acquisition target for and XOM or CVX (my guess is CVX because of the Andarko swipe) but it's hard for me to see what else bad can come out for the firm. Oil prices being slashed is likely the worst possible thing and with the coronavirus disrupting trade it really makes sense for OPEC to collude in order to fund government aid. Saudi Arabia/Russia don't have too much of a problem with the outbreak but with decreases in travel and commerce due to governmental bans externalities may force both back to the table. Or at the least create a stronger incentive for collusion as both will have a need to financing
NYSE:OXYLong
by jamesggentis