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Oil Facing Resistance at $90Oil has edged higher towards the $90's. We still haven't quite been able to break that threshold just yet, with a rejection just now at the time of this writing just below our level at $90.06. We are seeing red triangles on the KRI at this level. The Kovach OBV has picked up, so we will see if momentum can break us into the $90's, but so far $90.06 is a barrier. If we can break through, then the next target is $92.03. If we retrace, then we should have support again from $85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Can Oil Break Out Again?Oil has continued its corrective pattern as we have fallen from the $90's, back deep into the mid $80's. The corrective impulse took us back to $85.55, which dedicated readers will remember is a strong support level. We have seen green triangles on the KRI to confirm support every time this level has been tested. The Kovach OBV has flattened, suggesting we will need another strong burst of momentum before we are able to press higher. If so, $88.74 is the next immediate target which we will need to break before $90.06, the barrier to the $90's. If we retrace further the next target from below is $84.75.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Oil Finds SupportOil has fallen but is finding support in the high $80's. The level $87.21 seems to be providing good support, with two green triangles on the KRI serving as confirmation. The Kovach OBV confirmed a strong rally that took us back to the $90's, just shy of $94. Two attempts to break higher formed a double top which suggested an inability to make new highs and portended the correction. We subsequently fell several handles, but current levels seem strong. Anticipate ranging from here. Aother selloff could take us back to $85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Will the $80's Hold for Oil?Oil has weakened with the price action rounding off at $83.21. We are currently seeing support at the base of the $80 handle with the level at $80.00 holding strong for now. We have several green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV has dipped with the selloff, and we will need more momentum to come through in order to establish higher levels. If we break down further, then $78.90 or $77.56 are the next levels where we can anticipate support.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
The Two Main Factors Effecting Oil PricesOil saw support at $85.55, confirmed by many green triangles on the KRI. As anticipated, we saw a nice pivot there, bouncing back just below $90. We are currently testing $88.74, but a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Recession fears, bolstered by the non farm payrolls headline miss, will likely weigh on the price, however supply side shortages will likely keep prices above $85.55 for now. Our level at $90.06 is likely to be a ceiling for the time being.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Hits our TargetOil has tumbled, giving up the $90's entirely, and plummetting deeper into the $80's. We have breached $90.06, and several levels after that in the upper $80's. In particular, $87.21, our target from yesterday, was hit exactly (to the tick) and is currently providing support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If we plummet further, our next target is $85.55. If we can manage to pivot, we should be able to test the $90's again, with $90.06 to provide resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Recession Fears Slam OilOil plummeted off recession fears , rejecting the mid $90's. Technically we are already in a recession (by multiple metrics) but our puppet masters would like us to think otherwise, constantly chasing hope like a carrot on a fishing pole. We slammed past multiple levels in the $90's, giving up the $90 handle entirely. We are currently testing $88.74, with the next level down being $87.21. If we can test higher levels, then the $90's will provide a barrier, in particular at $90.06. A relative low at $85.55 should serve as our anticipated floor price for now.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
US Digs into Oil ReservesOil has made a run for higher levels, testing the next level above $95.24 at $96.88. US oil reserves are at lows not seen since 1984 , as the Biden administration hastily digs into reserves to frantically buoy prices before midterms. Nevertheless, we are still trekking closer to the $100 mark. If we are able to break through $96.88 then $100 is the next target. We should have some resistance there. If things turn south, then $92.03, or $90.06 are candidates for a floor price for now.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Can Oil Test $100 Again?Oil has rebounded into the $90's after establishing a solid value area in the high $80's. It seemed like prices were finally coming down, when we saw a nice spike back to the $90's, reestablishing value above $92.03. We are currently testing $95.24, but a red triangle on the KRI may indicate that we are running into resistance. If we can break through then the next target is $96.88. After that, we are clear to attempt the $100's again. If we reject current levels, we should see support at the base of the $90 handle.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Oil Struggles to Recover $90Oil seems to have bottomed out at $85.55. We saw good support from green triangles on the KRI, and a subsequent pivot back to the high $80's. We are now just below $90, with $90.06 in particular being the level to break before attaining higher levels. We should see significant resistance there. The Kovach OBV is bearish and keeps pressing lower. If we fail to test the $90's, then $85.55 should provide support, with the next support levels below including $84.75 and $83.76.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Regains the Mid-$90'sOil has finally broken out, solidly reestablishing the $90's after spending a few days in the high $80's. We are still bound by $95.24, which has been our target and area of anticipated resistance since oil was in the $87's. We are seeing some red triangles on the KRI confirming strong resistance here. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but it remains to be seen if we have enough strength to punch through the mid $90's and head back to the $100's. If we are able to break through $95.24, then $96.88 is the last level we must break before the $100's. If so, we should face resistance at $100 and $101.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy