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Oil Rally Lets off the GasOil has retraced a bit, after a fresh burst of momentum took us past 116. We appeared to be gunning for 122, but lost momentum in the middle of the vacuum zone, with several red triangles on the KRI suggesting that the rally was encountering resistance in this area. Subsequently, we smashed through 116, finding support just above 113. Currently, we are meeting resistance from 116. We are still bullish of oil, but it may range around these relative highs before momentum reignites.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Rallies Off Russian Oil BanOil has rallied significantly off news that the EU is planning to ban Russian imports of oil , despite the fact that Russia supplies 27% of the EU's oil and 40% of its gas. Crude oil prices soared off this news and we were able to smash through a relative high at $116. This was our target from earlier. Recall that last week, we noted oil's relative strength and set a target at $116. It is difficult to find justification for a signficant retracement, but a technical pull back should find support at $116 or $113. Our next target is $122, which would be signficant as this is a relative high.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Returns to Relative HighsOil has continued its rally, breaking through our level at $111 with ease. It is currently facing resistance in the middle of the vacuum zone between $111 and $116. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the rally, but has since leveled off. We have few fundamental reasons why we should see lower oil prices, however if we do retrace, we should have support at $111, $108, then $106 in the event of a retracement. Otherwise, $116 remains our target, then $122.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Economic Outlook on OilOil has been ranging in between $108 and $113, with consistent resistance at $111, which we have added as a new technical level. The value area has consolidated immensely, which suggests that we may be preparing for a breakout. There is no fundamental reason yet why we should see significantly lower oil prices, though China's renewed Covid lock downs weigh on demand. We anticipate strong support from $108 and $106, with $100 an absolute floor. If we can break past $113, our next target is $116.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Tests Relative HighsOil has extended gains, breaking through $106 and currently testing $108. We appear to be feeling out the range between $100 and $108, but there is a bull bias, and the Kovach OBV has picked up notably. If we are able to continue the rally, there is a vacuum zone to $111. We do appear to be facing resistance at the moment, confirmed by some red triangles on the KRI, so beware of a potential retracement, which should find support at $106, but may cross the vacuum zone again down to $101 or $100. The $100's should hold, but if not $95.24 has proven to be reliable floor price.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
GASOLINE Buy the dip for the next 2 monthsGasoline (RB1!) has been supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since January 2022 and after the most recent contact with the trend-line (April 07 2022), it has been on a strong rise. This shouldn't surprise us as the 1D RSI has been printing the same pattern as the March - June 2021 period, when Gasoline formed a Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50. This suggests that every dip towards the Support should be bought until at least the end of July. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
4
Oil Breaks HigherOil has been edging up, first breaking through $106, then $108. The latter has consistently been an upper bound for oil, but just yesterday it was finally able to crack this level. We broke out but topped off at $111 or so, just under our next target at $113. We are registering resistance confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV appears very strong, and oil seems to be holding its ground above $108, which should provide support. If not, we have $106 just below, then there is a vacuum zone down to $101. There is no reason to expect that we won't hold the $100's. Another burst of momentum could take us back to $113, then relative highs at $116.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Three Reasons to Be Skeptical of Higher Oil Prices... For NowOil broke down lower off news that Biden will start to use US oil reserves to the tune of 1M barrels per day and also considered adding more ethanol to gasoline to fight soaring costs. This was enough to bring oil down from the $100 handle, albeit briefly. We found support just above our level at 96.88, about 100 ticks north at 97.78 before we saw a nice pivot back to the $100 handle. However, the Kovach OBV is still very bearish after this selloff, so we will need more momentum to come through if we want to solidify the $100's again. If we drop further, then 96.88, 95.24, then 92.03 are the next targets. It does appear that oil has priced in the news, so we are likely to stabilize and form a value area in the low $100's, with $106 a likely target if that is the case.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Will We See Lower Oil Prices??Oil is hugging lows after Biden has announced that he will start to use US oil reserves and also considered adding more ethanol to gasoline to fight soaring costs. Crude promptly dropped from where it was meandering in the 106-113 range. We are still finding strong support at 101 and 100, which are strong technical and psychological levels. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish but has since flatlined. We will not be able to crack through these levels unless more momentum comes through. If it picks up, then 106 and 113 are the next targets which must be broken again before we can consider highs then our next target of 132.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Still StrongOil has hit our profit target of $116 to the tick, then retraced past our newly identified support level of $113. Currently, it is meandering in the wide vacuum zone between this upper bound and $106. We should see support from $106, but if not, there is no reason to believe that oil will give up the $100's any time soon. The level $116 seems to be providing steep resistance and this is the level we must break before considering higher levels. The Kovach OBV is lackluster despite the recent action, so it could go either way, but there is no fundamental reason to anticipate lower oil prices any time soon.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Crucial Moment For Oil I never post here but I really wanted to give this notice to as many ppl as possible. Forget the conflict no one knows how that will end. OPEC is still very tight with supply staying on pace with supply increases in the face of $130-$90 barrel oil. We aren't seeing much action in terms of increases in supply in the US either. Iran oil also seems to be off the table. All of this tells me we should hold this trend line and close around $99 today, but the chart is saying otherwise atm. If we close above $99 I believe we see a significant move higher to at least past resistance around $120. If we close below $99 today we could see a drop down to $80. Oil has traded in this channel for almost 2 years before the russian-ukraine war, making a move below or a confirmation of support very significant.
FX:USOILLong
by Value-Invest
1
M2 Adjusted Compensation of Employees Notice how everyone's wages were doing fine for TWO DECADES after Volcker was the FED chair? It's not coincidence. He was the most criticized FED chair in history because his policies WORKED for the working class. Fast forward to today, and we have turned the dollar into infinitely dividing pieces of confetti. These clowns at the FED are nothing more than puppets for the 1%. Real wages down 50% from 2000 and 20% from 2020. Hard to say it but I really don't see how this could ever improve unless we stop using the dollar. Now if only there was a currency where the money supply couldn't be expanded with political willpower... Good luck and hedge your bets
FRED:A576RC1
by fringe_chartist
2
S&P vs OilToday we have a very simple idea. When to invest in S&P 500 vs Oil. The white centerline is the center of the logarithmic price distribution. The red line at the top is +2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of Oil will put the price here. The green line is the opposite, -2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of the S&P will put the price here. In general, oil has gotten cheaper over the last 125 years compared to the S&P, hence the overall downtrend. I've put some historical events in the chart to portray what might have "caused" the shift, however it's important to note that correlation is not causation, and there are MANY other factors at play here in addition to the events I've listed. There are many events that we must assume we don't know about that have took place. We simply want to observe the results. Besides, the chart doesn't have nearly enough room to post about all events which could have been related :p. Let's look at the percentage increases in the chart that took place when the price breached the green line, in order to set some future expectations: Oil vs S&P price increase based on HLC3 candles (average of high, low, close): 1917 to 1921: 760% 1929 to 1949: 480% 1969 to 1980: 1380% 1999 to 2008: 1070% 2020 to now : 420% If you look at these percentages increases, one might conclude that we might be near the top. However, we breached far below the -2 stdev line, and momentum has reversed sharply. Not only that, upward momentum in this area tends to carry us PAST the centerline (white line) historically speaking. So, expecting this to be the top is quite generous, especially if you consider that the price of oil was below 0 for the first time ever in 2020! In my opinion, it's not crazy to think we could go 3-4x from here, to 0.75 or greater, especially if you consider that OPEC has no plans to increase production, which produces some of the cheapest oil on Earth. This chart only covers events like today, where we are recovering from a -3 stdev event, and does not cover the inverse scenario of where the S&P recovers. I feel like that deserves a whole other chart as I didn't want to make it look too crowded. Thanks for taking a look and don't forget to hedge your bets!
TVC:USOILLong
by fringe_chartist
8
USA Bans Imports of Russian Oil, Liquefied Natural Gas and CoalThis will be the start of a new trend in the energy sector..! In 2022 EV makers has no chance to beat these old dogs..! Do not forget at the right time even Lumber had beat Tesla's performance..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:USOILLong
by Moshkelgosha
9
Be ready for much higher prices in 2022..!Gasoline has just crossed above its all time high and entered a No resistance zone..! In 2008, gasoline rose to a record $4.11 a gallon, which equates to $5.20 a gallon today adjusted for inflation.(The Wall Street Journal) Increases in Gas price in the inflation era + geopolitical tensions will last longer than your expectations..! I think in 2022, all US refineries will beat their earning expectations by far..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D.
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by Moshkelgosha
1
Gas just got expensiveIn the chart is the M2 adjusted price of gasoline matched to the current price. It measures the portion of total dollars it would take to purchase a gallon of gasoline. Essentially it's a chart of dollar strength in gasoline terms. Chart up = strong gas, weak dollar. Chart down = weak gas, strong dollar. The white trendline in the center is the longterm linear regression, the center of the logarithmic price distribution (but only back to 1986). To calculate this symbol yourself: RB1! price = 3.798 RB1! / WM2NS price = 0.0001758 3.798 / 0.0001758 = 21604 Now we simply enter RB1! /WM2NS*21604 to get our current price. What the chart does not show is that over the years, public ownership of the dollar supply has gone down. As you pump unwarranted dollars into the economy, you get diminishing returns on real gdp growth and thus a reduction in productivity. No measurements are being made, dollars are only being thrown into the system. More doing, less thinking and measuring. Therefore, people have less overall dollars, relative to the total supply of dollars, to spend on gasoline as they did in previous decades. For example, around the 1970s, the FED could squeeze out about 70 cents in GDP per 1 dollar printed. (Actually they didn't squeeze anything, they just sat on their ass) Fast forward to 2022, these reckless and dogmatic pseudo-scientists are getting around 30 cents per dollar printed. If people are economically half as productive overall, PERHAPS everyday people will only be able to afford about HALF as much stuff and therefore half as much gasoline as when it was just as expensive in the past. Just something to think about, seeing as how regular citizens didn't get much of that money. Those who work the hardest are not worthy of the easy money printed by our glorious church of the FED. Consider how gasoline peaked around 7$ multiple times, in '85, '90, '05, '06. Now imagine if society was half as productive back then, that's basically saying it's 14$ in today's terms if you account for money productivity AND money supply expansion. Probably not the most settling idea. Good luck and hedge your bets.
NYMEX:RB1!
by fringe_chartist