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Oil Back to $80!!Oil has blasted back to the 80's, one of the only asset classes in our reports that is showing some strong bull conviction. We rejected 78.90 and returned to the range that we were holding in the 77's briefly, before getting a boost back through 78.90, to claim the 80 handle once more. Currently, we are seeing the price potentially top out for now, with two red triangles on the KRI just below 80.70. The Kovach OBV has leveled off which suggests that we have reached a top for now. Anticipate some ranging or perhaps another retracement before another run for higher levels in the 80's with 81.30 the next target. If we retrace, 78.90 should be considered the floor for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
RBOB - (RB) Gasoline The SPR release was a non-event, why would it be. Less asphalt is preferable. Heavy Sours are not ever going to relieve Price. The exception is DOT projects. _____________________________________________ April to June as the Flip for unleaded fuel production. Refineries lead this transition and switch over to summer- blend production in March and April. In the warmer months, gasoline has a greater chance of evaporating. Refiners reduce the chance of gas evaporation in your car during the s summer by producing gasoline blends that have lower Reid vapor pressure, or lower volatility. This isn't going to affect price this year. ______________________________________________ The Variant will, demand for Gasoline Liquid fuels will increase by 3.5 million b/d in 2022 to average 100.5 million. Given demand is well below 100 Million, we doubt this. War Drum will likely have the desired effect and those are rapidly building Globally as China has become an Isolationist. Russia is keen on pushing back against an attempt to regain the upper hand in NATO for the purposes of putting Putin in a corner. 2022 has the potential to be a very challenging year on many fronts. Price volatility will increase dramatically as Energy moves in far greater swings. ________________________________________________ There is a rather Large Daily GAp Above.
NYMEX:RB1!
by HK_L61
Oil Maintains the RangeOil has trekked downward from its rally yesterday. The rally was paltry with respect to what oil has been able to muster with proper buying momentum. We are still largely in a broad sideways corrective phase. The level 72.99 appeared to be a top for oil, as we identified yesterday. Currently, we are stabilizing around support in roughly the middle of the range, at 71.00, a technical and psychological level. The Kovach OBV is still relatively flat, and has arched over with the selloff, which suggests that if we don't find support here, that we could test further levels on the downside, including 70.01 and 69.67. These levels have provided strong support in the past, and are the lower bound of this corrective phase. If we take these levels out, then 68.96 is the next level of strong support, the neckline of our inverse head and shoulders pattern, from which we originally broke out to higher levels in the 70's. If this neckline can't hold, then it's a very bearish sign, and we should easily be able to test lower levels in the mid 60's, like 66.00, a strong technical and psychological level and the low of our second shoulder.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Trends Lower, Rejecting Relative HighsOil has drifted further down, but has found support at 70.00, a psychological and technical level. We are finding some meager support here, and have started to drift back upwards. Oil is in a broad corrective phase from the rally we saw after the inverse head and shoulders breakout. The technicals are looking pretty stagnant for oil at the moment, with the Kovach OBV flat, and the Kovach Chande oscillatory. We should continue to see value form in the range between 68.96 (the neckline of our inverse H&S pattern) and relative highs at 72.99.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Oil??Oil is still feeling global demand woes and remains in the high 60 handle. We are seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 68.96. The second shoulder has yet to fully form so avoid trading this preemptively. If we break out, we could easily hit 72.99, a relative high. If we reject it, then this would be a bearish sign, and we could easily see lows of 62.80 again. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, and perhaps oversold. But is does appear to be letting up a bit, perhaps suggesting a relief rally may be in store soon.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Can OPEC Counter Oil's Decline??Oil has edged up as OPEC has pledged to compensate for demand woes. We are seeing resistance from 69.67, a relative high. Several red triangles on the KRI are popping up on the chart, indicating we are running into some resistance. The Kovach OBV is still bearish, to the point we are severely oversold, so a relief rally could easily take us 200 ticks higher, though 72.99, the next relative high, should provide significant resistance. From below, 62.80, the relative low, should be considered a min lower bound for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Global Demand Woes Impact OilOil is still very bearish but does appear to have settled for now, finding support at our level at 64.86. We have gotten a small boost here but are seeing some resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just above 66.84. We are currently in roughly the midpoint of a range extending from 64.86 to 69.67. The Kovach OBV is extremely bearish, and starting to look over sold. But with global demand worries due to the new Omicron strain of the Coronavirus, we don't expect a rally any time soon. That being said we could see a relief rally potentially as high as the 70's, with 72.99 a particularly auspicious target.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
1
Demnd Issues Hit OilOil had a brief attempt at a rebound in the 70 handle, before crashing right back down to the 60's. We alerted you yesterday that the relative low was somewhat auspicious at 67.91. This is exactly where we are hanging on by a thread at the moment. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish, and fears over the Omicron variant have weighed on demand considerations. If we break down further into the 60 handle, then 66.77, 66.00, and 65.61 should provide support. If we see a rally, then 72.99 is the level we need to break before we are able to claw back the 70 handle.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Two Factors Impacting Oil PricesOil has plummeted over continued issues on the supply and demand side. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has impacted demand considerations as global governments consider yet another wave of lockdowns. We smashed through the 70 handle, but found support at 67.91. After a green triangle on the KRI confirmed support, oil was able to regain the 70 handle, and is currently hovering just below our level at 72.25. We do appear to be witnessing a bull wedge forming, but the Kovach OBV is still very bearish, despite the relief rally. This suggests that we aren't quite ready to see higher levels yet, but 72.99 is the next target if we see a bid. From below, there is a cluster of levels to provide support, with 67.91 to be the floor for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Bearish Flag Pattern Setup on Gasoline, Target at 2Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. Gasoline futures (RBOB) appears to be in a bearish flag pattern setup. The pole of the flag can be seen from the sharp decline from 2.55 highs to the initial low at 2.31. Then RBOB began to gingerly channel lower and is currently retesting the 2.31 support level. If RBOB breaks below that support, the futures contract is expected to decline towards 2. A negation of this move will be observed if RBOB breaks above the resistance trendline towards 2.35. From a Daily perspective, RBOB is pulling back from the 2.55 highs. Next levels of support on the Daily Chart is seen around the 2.10 price level. Technical Indicators On the 4-Hour Chart the moving averages (MAs) are above the RBOB price. Also there have been negative crossovers on the short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The RSI is below 50 with the KST recently having a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 2.35 and a target of 2. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 3.39. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by Ceddy86
Oil Attempts a RallyOil has rallied, breaking several resistance levels in the 76, and 77 handles. We have tested 78.90, but appear to be rejecting it. There are several red triangles on the KRI here, indicating strong resistance. Currently, we are in the middle of the range between 77.56 and 78.90. The Kovach OBV has leveled off suggesting we are seeking to establish value here. If we continue to rally and break 78.90, then the next target is 80.00, a significant psychological and technical level. From below 77.56, 76.93, and 76.16 should provide support.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
ng buyThe world is demanding energy for an economic recovery and a winter in Europe. Natural gas prices have been rising in recent months, due to the great demand for various factors, including the search for and implementation of cleaner energies, in this process some countries such as China are entering a stage of de-carbonization, In China's attempt to gradually reduce the use of coal, natural gas is becoming more in demand, the key factor behind the rise in natural gas prices is its demand, the European Union is also stopping the use of coal and needs to supply This energy need with other means, until generating a dependence on natural gas, this benefits Russia a lot since they are one of the largest gas producers and as in OPEC they can manipulate the supply, in some geopolitical scenarios it would benefit them to pressure the European Union in certain gas pipeline projects.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by juliansb32
Price has reached to critical zone, highest level since 2018As oil and gasoline prices spike in the world, Canadian dollar is getting stronger again. Right now, as you can see on CAD/JPY chart , price has entered the critical zone again. This is the forth time since 2017 that price reaches to this zone. Price behavior is very important here. Will gas, oil and commodities help Canadian Dollar to get stronger , break the zone and goes back to its wonderful days on 2014-2016 ? On the other side, Justin Trudeaus government is facing with a massive deficit, highest inflation rate since 2003 and vast volume of money printing which have made Canadian Dollar weaker than ever. Will positive factor overcome negative factors?
by Farid_alfredo