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GB10Y

GB10Y vs GBP/USD #gilts #gbp #recessionThe 10 Year gilt vs the GBP. Fractal taken from 2007 just before the 2008 recession. interest rates are expecting to keep raising! why this chart indicates they are coming to the end of the tightening cycle! as mentioned before I'm expecting more strength in the pound due to weakness in the dollar. Expecting the BOE to pause rate hikes next meeting after the aggressive 50 bpts increase. GBP strength would relieve pressure from BOE and we should see inflation drop. possible we see more banking contagion and possible further hike's if inflation doesn't drop fast enough. but how long can they tighten for? before revenue loss exceeds Debt. credit will be way more expensive, mortgage demand drops. - this would cause a pull back in the housing market, this is when I would expect the fed to crash rates, to support crashing market's and the BOE to follow suite. going off this chart 2007 fractal - by April 2024 we should see GBY10 back down too 2%. which mean's the fed must of cut real rates by then in order to see BOE follow their policy. bad for pension's as real inflation will be much higher than 2%. but would create much more liquidity for market's and cheaper debt for growth. more revenue to the service the mountain of debt, in order to strengthen GDP.
TVC:GB10Y
by dibz1996
GB10Y - UK pensions at risk? update. #BOE #recession"The Bank of England has hiked interest rates to 5 per cent in a further blow to homeowners struggling with spiralling mortgage costs. The rise, up from 4.5 per cent, is the sharpest increase since February – surprising economists who had been expecting a smaller increase of 0.25 percentage points – and sends interest rates to their highest level in 15 years! The move is set to deepen the mortgage crisis as borrowing costs rose for the 13th time in a row in an effort to curb inflation." *Fractal taken from 2007 high for the GB10Y - Gilt/Bond, reaching similar level's before reversing back down. I would expect the same to happen going forward. inflation is way above current interest rates, with the BOE stuck between banking crisis or a recession. I believe we'll see both! - Banking crisis, potential bail out's - expanding the currency supply further which will create more inflation! Pension's will continue too loose value, as bank of England will not be able to raise rates high enough to match inflation. "It comes as the rate of inflation remains unexpectedly stubborn – frozen at 8.7 per cent in May. Analysts had expected the Consumer Prices Index, which peaked at 11.1 per cent in October last year, to fall back to 8.4 per cent." What does this mean for the value of the pound? I'm actually expecting more strength in the GBP - purely from the weakness of the dollar. I would expect the fed to continue to pause now that inflation is finally dropping. FedNow expected to launch on the 1st of July, this will enable faster payment's and a surplus of dollars entering the markets if needed. again weaken's the purchasing power of the DXY - by adding more supply to the currency.
TVC:GB10YShort
by dibz1996
UK Warning Sirens to Global Financial MarketsUK is a warning signal for everyone. This is what happens when central banks attempt to pivot in the current inflationary environment. The Global Lehman event accelerated after the September U.S. CPI, but was paused by BOE temporary intervention. Next U.S. CPI follows the end of BOE intervention. A Lehman crash now equals approx -60% in GDOW/SPX. The softer each step is down, and no sign of capitulation, the worst final low will be. Will the US be a safe-haven from a global financial crisis? If you believe central bankers can unring the bells, now is the time to go ALL-IN.
TVC:GB10YShort
by shri30389
ridethepig | Gilt Yields Breaking the GridlockThe best move, since the breakout of the consolidation after an early basing development is to work the heat of the bid. It is much more about the political configuration than and how to work against the economic pain coming from Brexit. As well as moves in Pound and UK Equities becoming clear, Rishi Sunak now playing the tax cuts, which combined with the overdraft extensions and BOE front loaded cuts allows us to completely paralyse sterling buyers in the majority. The latest squeeze is a false liberation!! It will only manage to create enough energy for further weakness !! The isolated Pound will fall and go on to occupy the lows once more, we can open a new cable chart for those wanting to trade the flows live. By calling to their aid the tax cuts, Yields will be forced to spike into the highs and force our opponent onto the back-foot. If price escapes the highs in a freeing momentum break, we can see a surplus of tempo once inflation hits shore. This demonstrates how deadly the paralysing of Downing Street was from Cameron.
TVC:GB10YLong
by ridethepig
Heads Up...Tax Cuts Coming In UK !!!Important updates on the UK side for those in UK related assets. A game changer cabinet reshuffle to put a 🍒 picked “Yes man” in the Treasury. Downing Street making renovations and now in full control of not only No.10 but also No.11 (and scarily soon to be the BOE next month). Sunak will turn the fiscal taps on full blast, the fuel behind fiscal stimulus will come from fresh tax cuts in the UK ...Clean and simple legs available in the 2s10s, as markets begin to expect a looser fiscal policy a test of the Nov highs are in play. We will need to update the GBP macro charts over the coming sessions once we have confirmation in the headlines. Remember inversions in the US 2s5s setting the stage for recession... We traded the inversion here live in the UK: In any case, plenty of opportunities to discuss and in single stocks too. Smelling a major hammer to the UK economy coming at the end of 2020. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
TVC:GB10YLong
by ridethepig