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Gbjpy

GBPJPY SHORTFOLLOW ME FOR MULTIPLE TRADING ANALYSES DAILY As you can see from the chart, it just hit a MAJOR resistance line which is a good indication that it will go down based on recent price action but wait till you see confirmation of this prediction, a big mistake most traders have, and I am guilty of this from time-to-time also is jumping the gun too fast before the candlestick finishes its formation so the best advice I have is to never trade mid candle, wait till the close and then make your trade if it is going your way at the close. Always switch back and fourth from time frames, I start my analysis from the top down method meaning starting at 4hr/1hr/30min/15min/5min and look for trends I can spot. VERDICT: I believe it will not break resistance and thus a good short opportunity.
Short
by alexlat11
Bullish Flag on the Daily GBPJPYHere are my Thoughts for the coming weeks. Lots of good Fibonacci confluence, to many levels lining up to be ignored imo. So to start we have some basic patterns forming Bullish Flag, we have had out impulse leg up and come back to the 382 retracement which lines up with previous structure resistance which could turn support. The flag could do a, a,b,c,d Harmonic move which does line up with the 1.618 of a fib extension. The 1.27 level of this extension also lines up with the 1.618 of the fib inversion. looking at the weekly highs and doing some fib retracements we have a 618 and 786 also line up with the 1.618 and 1.27. This general area was a previous are of structure support. We are also in the Oversold area RSI Lost yet? for me lots of little bits lining up which is building a strong case to the upside There are a couple of key levels In Blue which are going to be areas to watch if price moves up. Of course it could retrace further to the downside. Good luck and Trade Safe
Long
by Wonour
BOJ: JPY V USD, EUR, GBP - WHAT THE OPTION MARKET IS TELLING US50 Delta ATM Volatilities: USDJPY - - $Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 55.95%mrkt 24.08%1wk 18.31%2wk 14.12%1m - Obviously we are aggressively steeper in the front end, with BOJ tomorrow and JPY MOF Fiscal Package details coming next week providing heightened vol for the 1day and 1wk vols - naturally we then see the curve tail off as the event vol fades. GBPJPY - - £Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 58.66%mrkt 25.93%1wk 23.02%2wk 18.30%1m - The same can be said about sterling yens ATM curve, adding that it is steeper accross the tenors as the recently heightened GBP risk/ BOE event vol is priced into the 1wks and 2wks greater relatively vs $yen, with 1ms also outperforming $Yen as the perceived GBP risk/ vol post-brexit carries higher vs the USD. EURJPY - - EUROYEN has an ATM implied volatility curve of 49.42%mrkt 22.82%1wk 18.03%2wk 14.23%1m - EUROYEN mirrors $yen from 1wk-1m as the term structure is very similar for eur vs usd (no significant event vol expected). Though we see a notable 6-7vol divergence in the current vol which is expected as $Yen expressions are favourable for BOJ out-performance positionings (USD a firmer based/ more widely traded) and £Yen are favourable for BOJ under-performance structures as BOE next week compunds the attractiveness in the downside of the cross (BOE likely to ease) which in turn increases the demand for £Yen expression on a BOJ no-show. 25Delta Risk Reversals (25d call vol minus 25d put vol - examines the relative demand) USDJPY - - $Yen RRs are +3 mrkt, +0.62 1wk, -0.67 2wk, -0.81m - Interestingly we are seeing a moderate $Yen topside coverage in the front end (e.g. current and 1wks) implying the market is hedging/ positioning for a BOJ Out-performance Surprise (call demand > Put). The RRs are quite small at +1 so i wouldnt say there is a huge consensus on BOJ HIT expectations. Nonetheless calls are likely being purchased to hedge underlying spot short positions in the near term as any $yen/ BOJ topside is expected to not last long and be faded aggressively - which explains the switch to negative RRs after the BOJ/ MOF events have passed. GBPJPY - - £Yen RRs are -6 mrkt, -3 1wk, -1.3 2wk, -2.2 1m - Understandably SterlingYen has a different RR structure as BOJ and BOE predispositions are priced into option structures, rather than just BOJ (as is the case for £yen and euroyen) - so we see a strong put bias, particularly in the front end (current and 1wks) as these cover the BOE and BOJ event vol. Unlike $Yen we see there is a clear trend for BOJ miss/ downside speculation as it is the logical chosen proxy, as a BOJ miss is highly likely to then be compounded over the current and 1wk terms as BOE hit expectations are priced in, accelerating the GBPJPY to the downside and RRs towards the LHS (BOJ miss = yen strength, BOE hit = Streling weakness - aggressive downside). Also put gbpjpy, automatically hedges any BOJ hit/topside risk as 1wk later the BOE is likely to ease so any yen downside arising from a BOJ hit will likely be smoothed somewhat by BOE easing induced GBP selling; thus lessening the negative impact or even turning the position back into the money.
by QuantumLogicTrading
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