Is GBP still bearish?GBP/AUD looks bearish on a higher time frame, crossing all the moving averages and we can see a daily bearish engulfing developing, which is a great indicator to confirm selling bias. On the 1-hour TF, a bearish engulfing is forming, and if it closes as it is, we will have a new H1 low. Talking about fundamentals, there is no big impact news today for both currencies, but hedge funds are selling off both currencies, so this trade might be a slow burner, but the setup is definitely looking strong for a short.
Gbp-aud
GBPAUD: Keep an eye on this up wave!Hey Traders, keep an eye on FX:GBPAUD , we are looking for this up wave.
For us, the structure is ready to move up and print new highs, the corrective structure is completed and market is ready to start an up trend so we will be looking for our buy setups.
P.S. Jumping in without using stop loss or risking big or following anyone blindly leads to big losses, never do that.
If you want us to post more charts, setups and explain more about the next move, make sure to follow us, like and comment.
What we are sharing here is only our point of view on what could be the next move in the market based on our wave analysis concept so this is a directional bias and not signals...
DO NOT FORGET "We Trade Waves" 4 GOLDEN RULES:
1) Do not over-risk
2) Do not over-trade
3) Do not trade without stop loss
4) Never ever add to losing position
Trade with care
We Trade Waves Team
Stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround on GBPAUDGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7253 (stop at 1.7132)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A move lower faces tough support and we remain cautious on downside potential. Bespoke support is located at 1.7250. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 1.7596 and 1.7700
Resistance: 1.7600 / 1.7800 / 1.8200
Support: 1.7250 / 1.6800 / 1.6000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
GBPAUD BUYOver the last week the pair has been trending down in line with making a higher low. With the pound despite inflation data being negative making advances against both dollar and yen we expect to see the price push towards the upside of the this range. We have entered the trade long will hold for the 1.745 to 1.75 area. Good Luck
GBPAUD Neutral within a Rectangle since AprilThe GBPAUD has been trading within a very simple Rectangle pattern since early April, giving traders excellent sideways opportunities. At the moment the price is around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but with the MACD on a Bearish Cross (all of whom led to Lows), it is more likely to see a new selling leg towards the Support of the pattern.
This time, there is the Higher Lows trend-line involved, that has initiated short-term rebounds twice already, so the most appropriate course of action would be to buy just above that trend-line on a tight SL, targeting the Resistance but be quick to reverse to a sell aimed at the Support if a 1D candle closes below the trend-line.
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GBP/AUD Sell Entry 2K pips Chart 1/3Sell Limit entry: 1.75500
Stop loss order: 1.76300
Take profit order: 1.73300
*HEDGE(to minimize losses)-simultaneously OPEN a BUY STOP/LIMT order w/ SAME LOT SIZE as initial trade.
Hedge position levels:
Buy limit/stop: 1.75500
Take Profit: 1.76300 ( T/P = S/L from Initial Trade )
Stop loss: 1.75250 ( S/L = 0-250 pips below Initial Trade Entry level )
*800 pip hedging order.
Potential Gains: 2K-2.2K pips
Potential Loss: 0-250 pips
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.75/1.00
Avg. Holding Period: 5-7 days
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Use the information to assist you with your trading journey. This analysis is just my idea and doesn't guarantee any gains/loss. Leave a comment and follow me to stay up to date on trade opportunities. Safe trading.
When finished will post position opportunities for 1hr and 15min timeframes.
No technical reason for a change of trend on GBPAUDGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.7642 (stop at 1.7717)
Intraday signals are bearish. Rallies continue to attract sellers. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. Trend line resistance is located at 1.7650. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 1.7650 level.
Our profit targets will be 1.7453 and 1.7400
Resistance: 1.7650 / 1.7800 / 1.8120
Support: 1.7450 / 1.6800 / 1.6000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Dip buying on GBPAUD ahead of the RBA rate decisionGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7580 (stop at 1.7512)
Previous resistance at 1.7570 now becomes support. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. We expect a reversal in this move. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 1.7780 and 1.7800
Resistance: 1.7750 / 1.8120 / 1.9100
Support: 1.7570 / 1.7200 / 1.6200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
GBPAUD Trading according to planThere isn't much to update on the GBPAUD pair, as since our last analysis on April 21, the price has been following our plan in a very precise way:
As you see, the similarities with the July - October 2020 sequence have paid off and the price action continues to follow that pattern. We are now at the point where the pair is consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is used as the pivot point. The Diverging Lower Lows trend-line should provide the necessary Support to sustain this consolidation until the 1D Golden Cross is formed that will start the new rally towards the top of the long-term Channel Down. The ideal buy can be timed when the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross.
On the other hand, if the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line breaks, be ready to sell towards the bottom of the Channel Down and the -0.5 Fibonacci extension, and then buy for the long-term.
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End of week recapGBP/AUD
GBPAUD has been stuck in a range since the early part of May. This has been a pretty clean trade from range high to rage low. In my own terminology I would consider a range to be an efficient market, one that has defined top and bottom where markets have found equilibrium. These efficient markets can present a separate market characteristic this is another I call inefficient market one that see a quick reset in price.
These explanations are made to make this trade seem easier to understand. That being said we are looking for the market to rebound with a stronger British Pound.
Looking at the lower portion of the chart Vix indicator says vol is above 50 this is to be taken as bearish moment which indeed we are experiencing. Though I like to look at what price we are experiencing VIX above 50 las time price showed us a 50 VIX was 1.73-1.74 today we are much higher at 1.76. This for me allows me to take the stand that GBP/AUD is bullish at this point on the chart with a return to the upper range of the efficient zone.
GBPAUD 23rd MAY 2022The inflation picture is hugely concerning but the British government has confidence in the Bank of England to get it right, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke said on Monday.
British inflation surged last month to its highest annual rate since 1982, pressuring finance minister Rishi Sunak to offer more help to households and the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates despite a risk of recession.
Volatility 19 May 22 Currency Futures Eur, Gbp Aud, Chf YenAUD Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5397 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.96%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.21%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.008
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 0.704
BOT 0.687
GBP Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5408 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.78%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.98%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.012
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.246
BOT 1.222
EUR Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5408 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.65%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.82%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.009
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.056
BOT 1.039
CHF Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5399 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.58%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.73%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.007
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.02
BOT 1.006
YEN Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5399 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.75%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.93%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.007
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 0.0078 + 0.008
BOT 0.0078 - 0.008