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Gbp-aud

Dip buying on GBPAUD ahead of the RBA rate decisionGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7580 (stop at 1.7512) Previous resistance at 1.7570 now becomes support. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. We expect a reversal in this move. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 1.7780 and 1.7800 Resistance: 1.7750 / 1.8120 / 1.9100 Support: 1.7570 / 1.7200 / 1.6200 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA
GBPAUD Trading according to planThere isn't much to update on the GBPAUD pair, as since our last analysis on April 21, the price has been following our plan in a very precise way: As you see, the similarities with the July - October 2020 sequence have paid off and the price action continues to follow that pattern. We are now at the point where the pair is consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is used as the pivot point. The Diverging Lower Lows trend-line should provide the necessary Support to sustain this consolidation until the 1D Golden Cross is formed that will start the new rally towards the top of the long-term Channel Down. The ideal buy can be timed when the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross. On the other hand, if the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line breaks, be ready to sell towards the bottom of the Channel Down and the -0.5 Fibonacci extension, and then buy for the long-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
End of week recapGBP/AUD GBPAUD has been stuck in a range since the early part of May. This has been a pretty clean trade from range high to rage low. In my own terminology I would consider a range to be an efficient market, one that has defined top and bottom where markets have found equilibrium. These efficient markets can present a separate market characteristic this is another I call inefficient market one that see a quick reset in price. These explanations are made to make this trade seem easier to understand. That being said we are looking for the market to rebound with a stronger British Pound. Looking at the lower portion of the chart Vix indicator says vol is above 50 this is to be taken as bearish moment which indeed we are experiencing. Though I like to look at what price we are experiencing VIX above 50 las time price showed us a 50 VIX was 1.73-1.74 today we are much higher at 1.76. This for me allows me to take the stand that GBP/AUD is bullish at this point on the chart with a return to the upper range of the efficient zone.
Long
by RobinhoodFX
Volatility 19 May 22 Currency Futures Eur, Gbp Aud, Chf YenAUD Futures Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5397 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.96% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.21% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.008 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be TOP 0.704 BOT 0.687 GBP Futures Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5408 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.78% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.98% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.012 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be TOP 1.246 BOT 1.222 EUR Futures Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5408 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.65% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.82% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.009 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be TOP 1.056 BOT 1.039 CHF Futures Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5399 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.58% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.73% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.007 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be TOP 1.02 BOT 1.006 YEN Futures Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5399 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.75% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.93% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.007 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be TOP 0.0078 + 0.008 BOT 0.0078 - 0.008
CME:6E1!
by exlux
GBPAUD: Your Trading Plan For Today 🇬🇧 🇦🇺 Hey traders, Have you seen that cute dodji candle that GBPAUD formed on a daily time frame. That candlestick pattern formed on a strong horizontal key level. To short with a confirmation, watch a double top formation on 4H. 1.7664 - 1.769 is its horizontal neckline. Wait for 4H candle close below that, then short aggressively or on a retest. Goals will be 1.75 / 1.74 If the price sets a new higher high on 4h, the setup will be invalid. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.7433). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 56. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.7582 TP2= @ 1.7746 TP3= @ 1.8030 TP4= @ 1.8178 TP5= @ 1.8392 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
4
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.7433). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 56. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.7582 TP2= @ 1.7746 TP3= @ 1.8030 TP4= @ 1.8178 TP5= @ 1.8392 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity_World
6
GBP/AUD Ascending triangleIf we start analyzing from the D-timeframe we can see that we are at a strong Support level and we have more than 1000pips to the upside we go to the lower timeframe like the 1hour TF we can see an Ascending Triangle. So the best way to play out such a trade is to wait for the breakout and set our SL just below the support line (Or preferably 1ATR below it) and we can create 1:10RR trade. Confirmations: Daily and weekly support levels; GBP-Top rated in the currency strength matters; 1hour TF possible confirmation after the breakout; Entry: In best case scenario we can just place a Buy Stop order above the triangle forming in 1hourTF Risk Reward:1:3/1:10 Depends if you are aiming for longer-term swing move
Long
by Elite_Forex
GBP AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In March the BoE hiked rates by 25bsp as expected but delivered a bearish hike with BoE’s Cunliffe dissenting by voting to leave rates unchanged. This was a stark change from February where 4 members voted for a 50bsp hike. Cunliffe noted the negative impacts of higher commodity prices on real household incomes and economic activity as the main reason for his dissention, while remaining members thought a 25bsp hike was appropriate given the tight labour market and risks of second round effects. Even though inflation forecasts were upgraded to 8% in Q2 (previous 7.25%), the negative view that GDP was expected to slow to subdued rates showed growing concern of stagflation. The most bearish element of the statement was a change in language regarding incoming rates where the bank said they judge that some further modest tightening MIGHT be appropriate where previous guidance said more tightening was ‘LIKELY TO BE’ appropriate (a clear push against overly aggressive rate expectations). They further pushed back by noting the current implied rate path would see inflation would be below target in 3 years’ time, in other words saying they won’t hike as much, and confirms our estimates that policy reached peak hawkishness in February. The 100% odds of a 25bsp in May drifted to just above 80% on Friday, and markets will pay close attention to incoming BoE speak, where further push back against rates could be enough to see markets pricing out some of the >5 hikes still priced for 2022. As a result of the clear dovish tilt, we have adjusted our assessment of the bank’s policy stance to NEUTRAL. 2. Economic & Health Developments With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces stagflation risk, as price pressures stay sticky while growth decelerates. That also means that current market expectations for rates continues to look too aggressive even after the BoE’s recent push back. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. 3. Political Developments Political uncertainty is usually GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows question remains on whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. 4. CFTC Analysis Very bearish signal from all three participant categories with the aggregate positioning (non-commercials, leveraged funds and asset managers) pushing below 1 standard dev from the 15-year mean. It’s important to note that this sentiment was clearly reflected given the big drop in Sterling this week. 5. The Week Ahead For Sterling in the week ahead it’ll be all eyes on the upcoming Bank of England meeting. Recall at the last meeting that we saw quite a dramatic change in sentiment among the MPC with only 8 voting for a hike and 1 dissenter voting to leave rates unchanged. This was a big change from the meeting before that where all 9 voted for a hike and 4 voted for a 50bsp hike. A 25bsp hike is fully priced in for the May meeting (as well as an additional 5 by year end after that), so markets will be keenly watching the vote split to get a clue whether the overall sentiment for hikes among MPC members are changing (will anyone join Cunliffe to dissent this time). There are reasons to believe that more MPC members could be leaning to the dovish side as recent growth data has deteriorated much more and faster than expected. Especially with recent commentary from Gov Bailey cautioning that they are walking on a tightrope between trying to fight high inflation whilst trying to avoid a recession. That means with a 25bsp hike 100% priced, the focus will be on any signals the bank provides with regard to the rate path going forward (whether they push back against the overly aggressive hike expectations or not). The balance sheet will also be in focus as the bank’s has previously suggested that they will look to actively start selling Gilts once the cash rate reaches 1.0%. By following through with a 25bsp hike next week will put them at 1.0% so any announcement of sales or of a path forward will be important. AUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting, the RBA took a slightly more hawkish stance by removing their reference to ‘patience’ in terms of policy tightening. With the bank taking a sanguine view of rising price pressures, the statement did reveal a growing concern for inflation with 10 references to ‘inflation’ in the statement. The bank explained that higher energy and commodity price could see a sizeable increase to inflation forecasts in the May report. In their Financial Stability report the bank urged borrowers to prepare for an increase in rates, which was a further signal from the bank. Even though the meeting showed a bank that is turning the page, the statement also revealed very similar conditionality such as incoming wage and inflation data. Following the meeting, markets have a bit of an overreaction by pricing in a >80% chance of a rate hike at the May meeting but was later pushed back to <30%. Given the importance of wage data, and since that is only release on the 18th of May, the most likely meeting for a first hike is the June meeting. Westpac investment bank agrees with our take with the bank expecting a 15bsp lift off in June, followed by 25bsp hikes in July, August, Oct and Nov. Even though this confirms our fundamental bullish bias, the >14 hikes priced by end 2023 means risks of lower repricing is building. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 3 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see recovery, mostly thanks to stimulus in China China – With the PBoC & CCP stepping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, any recovery in China bodes well for Australia (China accounts for 40% of Australian exports). It also means the current virus situation in China posesshort-term downside risks for AUD. The AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar as well Commodities – Iron Ore (31%), Coal (14%) and LNG (10%) is more than 50% of Aussie exports, with rising prices giving the AUD huge support from terms of trade. If commodities remain supported it remains a support for AUD, but of course also means any sizeable corrections would weigh on the AUD, which means geopolitical and China demand developments remain focus points. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis Quite strange positioning change for the AUD with Leverage Funds trimming net-shorts by a chunky amount but Asset Managers showing a whopping build up in net-short contracts. The shift in Asset Manager positioning could explain the reluctance of the AUD to make any real progress despite very positive China developments. 5. The Week Ahead The focus in the week ahead will turn to the upcoming RBA policy decision, as well as China developments and commodities . For the RBA, markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25bsp hike at next week’s meeting after the Q1 CPI saw all three inflation measures push above the bank’s target range between 2%-3%. With CPI reaching its highest levels in two decades one can understand the reaction in STIR markets, with some participants calling for the possibility of a 15bsp, 25bsp and some even look for a 40bsp hike next week. We think there is a higher probability that the bank chooses to wait until they receive the next quarterly wage price index on the 18th of May. There is also political optics which might see them stay patient as the Federal Election takes place on the 21st of May (and no politician would want to have rates hiked for the first time in quite a while three weeks before people head to the polls). Thus, with all of that in mind we think the bank will want to stay patient, which could open up some downside risk for the AUD in the short-term. However, if they decide to come out guns blazing with a 40bsp hike that could provide a catalyst to get back into AUDCAD longs. On the China side, all eyes will be on further stimulus promises and efforts from the CCP or PBoC (which should be supportive for the AUD, even though this past week it hasn’t been enough to support the Antipode). Furthermore, the classic risk sentiment correlation has come back with a vengeance these past two weeks, which means overall risk sentiment and equity price action might be taking back the limelight from commodities .
by thunderpips
2