Gbp-aud
GBP/AUD: Price continue to falling , new Butterfly pattern...Check my previous Idea below...
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GBP/AUD:BREAKOUT TRENDLINE AND NEW BEARISH IMPULSE....SHORTWelcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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GBPAUD - Reversal to 1.86 levelHaven't published on here in a while!
Here's a simple set up on GBPAUD with lots of confluence pointing to a reversal. Here we see price rejecting both the 100 and 200 H4 averages at a significant area of support-resistance.
The last H4 doji closure implies a bearish reversal, in which i expect price to fall to test the 1.86 psychological support level.
Let's see if a weak GBP can push us to TP!
GBPAUDBullish Indicators:
1) Bounced from the upward trendline
2) Support zone at 1.86056
3) Bullish engulfing
Bearish Indicators:
1) Descending trendline
2) Resistance at 1.87723
Plan A: One can buy from here for the target of 1.88459
Plan B: On the breaking of upward trendline one can sell for the target of 1.85340 where the major support lies.
GA interesting pair to watch,but no action yet.Possible break lower or push back up from 1.86?Shall wait for market's cue!
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Outlook on GBPAUD: Pullback presents an opportunity to sellPrices are holding below a key resistance zone on the monthly time frame with further downside seen. On the H1 time frame, prices broke its ascending support line and a pullback to test the resistance zone at 1.88800, in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement presents an opportunity to sell to the support target at 1.8700 which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Waiting for the opportunity to sell with GBPAUDH1 time frame.
Structure: Bullish structure is broken, price breaks Key level 1.88400.
Waiting for the price to return to the 1.88800 - 1.89000 zone, sell setups may appear.
Profit target is 1.85400 zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
GBPAUD to drop to 1.85733After being in an uptrend for some time, price finally breaks out and consolidates across with the upper channel of the consolidation testing and failing to break the upper major zone area. Price then makes a false upper breakout and moves back into the channel with bearish momentum, which signaled a selling opportunity with the take profit at the lowest zone area
Long-Term Bullish Path on GBP/AUD Good morning, traders! Today we will analyze GBP/AUD (multi-timeframe) to explain our bullish view in depth.
First, we would like to start with the graph with the longest temporality (Weekly) to explain the context and where this direction comes from.
🔸Here, we see that the price rebounded on the Weekly Ascending Trendline, and since then, the upward movement has not stopped.
🔸Recently, we saw a break in a supply zone on the daily chart.
🔸As we know, the broken resistance zones later become support zones, which happened in this case.
🔸Now the price is moving upward, and we believe that in the long term, there is the potential to reach the previous high.
GBP AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Virus Situation
The successful vaccination program has allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers & provides a favourable environment for GBP.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE
The BoE meeting on 5 August provided a flurry of comments with something for both the doves and the hawks. The QE vote split was more dovish (7-1) with BoE’s Saunders the only dissenter, while upgrades to growth and inflation were positive, even though price pressures is still views as mostly ‘transitory’. Reasons for a patient stance was the uncertainty surrounding the virus at the time as well as waiting for the end of the furlough scheme to assess the impact on the labour market. Thus, the bank will be in wait-and-see mode until at least Oct or Nov. The other important change was the reduction in the bank’s QT threshold from 1.5% to 0.5%, with the bank looking at a bank rate of 0.5% to stop reinvesting maturing assets and a rate of 1.0% to start selling assets and reducing its balance sheet . Market participants are mixed about what this means (it’s positive since the bank has enough confidence to lower the balance sheet even while rates are low, but on the other hand it means rates can stay lower for longer which is a negative). However, all in all the most important take away was the continued optimism about the economy despite virus uncertainty and comments that modest tightening will be required.
3. The country’s economic developments
Hopes of a fast economic recovery has seen the BOE and IMF upgrade GDP projections for the UK which has widened the growth differentials between other major economies and has been a positive input for GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably already reflected in the price which means a continuation of the recent misses in economic data could make further solid gains more difficult for the GBP to maintain. The other factor to watch is potential tightening of the fiscal taps by the government with proposals of higher National Insurance taxes to fund the government’s planned social care overhaul. For now, this doesn’t change the med-term outlook, but if the proposed tax hikes are enough to see expectations of robust consumer spending being paired back that could be a strong med-term headwind for the Pound.
4. Political Developments
Remember Brexit? Yeah, me neither, but recent rhetoric between the UK and EU hasn’t gone in a very positive direction with the UK side explaining to the EU that they are looking at all the options on the table (including article 16) if they can’t reach an agreement with the EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road.
5. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the GBP (updated until 31 August) showed a positioning change of +1845 with a net non-commercial position of -14900. The recent flush lower in positioning means current levels for GBP still look attractive for med-term buyers. There are med-term risks on the horizon as we’ve explained above but we maintain med-term longs from 1.3700 and will look to add more incremental longs in the weeks ahead.
AUD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL
1. The country’s economic and health developments
There are three key factors that created recent uncertainty for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation where most recent data have shown further increases in case numbers and no sign of restrictions lifting anytime soon. A Q3 GDP contraction is priced in and has pushed back tapering & hike expectations. Then there is China, where we’re watching the health of the economy after the slowdown has been bigger and faster than most had anticipated, also causing the PBoC to do a 0.5% RRR cut a few weeks ago. China is Australia’s biggest trade partner and the 2nd largest contributor to global GDP so it’s an important driver for AUD to keep on the radar. Politically, the risk of further tariffs and bans on Australian goods is also something to keep on the radar. Iron Ore is Australia’s biggest export (24%), and the almost 40% drop from YTD highs in the past few weeks is expected to negatively impact the country’s terms of trade. It’s true that the 19% rise in Coal prices (18% of exports) from the start of August has taken some of the sting out of the Iron Ore drop, but it’s not been enough to avoid a negative impact on overall terms of trade.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBA
The RBA surprised markets with their previous meeting by not announcing a delay to their September tapering as most participants had expected. They kept their planned QE tapering of A$1bln in place for Sep until mid-Nov where they still plan to decide the future of their QE program. The meeting minutes pressured AUD this week as it showed that the board considered the case for delaying the tapering. This was interesting because the bank seemed content about the economic outlook during their statement. With the minutes showing that a possible delay in tapering was on the cards, attention turns to this week’s upcoming meeting where consensus expects the bank to announce a delay in their planned September tapering due to the escalation in the country’s virus situation.
3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, AUD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the AUD (updated until 31 August) showed a positioning change of -3478 with a net non-commercial position of -60078. The AUD’s outperformance this week was mostly due to stretched net-shorts getting an overdue squeeze higher. The positive data and risk sentiment helped, but the moves were typical squeeze behaviour. Keep in mind that the bulk of the AUD’s upside took place from Wednesday, so the most recent CFTC data won’t reflect that. Thus expect a sizeable reduction in net-shorts with next week’s data.
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.8930).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 30.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.8765
TP2= @ 1.8625
TP3= @ 1.8527
TP4= @ 1.8433
TP5= @ 1.8355
TP6= @ 1.8233
SL: Break Above R2
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💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.8930).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 30.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.8765
TP2= @ 1.8625
TP3= @ 1.8527
TP4= @ 1.8433
TP5= @ 1.8355
TP6= @ 1.8233
SL: Break Above R2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader?
Now, It's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
GBPAUD Potential bullish momentum | 1st Sep 2021Price is expected to bounce upwards from the ascending trendline support. Price is expected to move towards the 1st Resistance in line with the previous swing high and 100% Fibonacci extension . Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator, the K% line bounced off on the support level showing a strong upward movement.
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GBP AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Virus Situation
The successful vaccination program has allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers & provides a favourable environment for GBP.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE
The BoE meeting on 5 August provided a flurry of comments with something for the doves and the hawks. The QE vote split was a tad more dovish with a 7-1 split with BoE’s Saunders to only dissenter, while the upgrades to growth and inflation were positive but with similar comments of ‘transitory’ price pressures muting any real market impact . The reasons for the bank to remain patient right now in terms of policy normalization is the current uncertainty surrounding the virus and of course the bank waiting for the end of the furlough scheme to assess the impact on the labour market. That means, that the bank would arguably be in wait-and-see mode until at least October or November. The other change that was important to take note of was the reduction in the bank’s QT threshold from 1.5% to 0.5%, with the bank looking at a bank rate of 0.5% to stop reinvesting maturing assets and a rate of 1.0% to start selling assets and reducing the balance sheet . Market participants are mixed about what this means for the bank as on the one end it’s positive since the bank has enough confidence to lower the balance sheet even while rates are low, but on the other end it also means that rates can stay lower for much longer which is more negative. Arguably the most important comments to take away was their continued optimism about the economy despite the uncertainty as well as their comments that modest tightening will be required.
3. The country’s economic developments
Hopes of a fast economic recovery has seen the BOE and IMF upgrade GDP projections for the UK which has widened the growth differentials between other major economies by quite a bit. As the economy continues to rebound this should continue to be supportive for GBP as long as the data reflects that. Something to be mindful of is that a lot of these positives are arguably reflected in the price. Thus, if we start to see some disappointing data, that could mean that decent upside would be more difficult for Sterling to maintain.
4. Political Developments
Remember Brexit? Yeah, me neither, but this week the rhetoric between the two sides continued to go in the wrong direction with the UK side explaining to the EU that they are looking at all the options on the table (include article 16) if they can’t reach an agreement with the EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road.
5. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the GBP (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -21396 with a net non-commercial position of -16745. The big push lower in positioning means current levels for GBP still look attractive for med-term buyers, especially with the positioning seeing quite a flush lower in the past few weeks. The miss in both retail sales and inflation last week did see some additional pain on the Pound two weeks ago, and this week’s flash PMI’s didn’t help either, but med-term outlook remains bullish and thus positioning attractive at these levels.
AUD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL
1. The country’s economic and health developments
The key factors that have created uncertainty for the med-term outlook for the AUD are The virus situation rising cases prompted new lockdowns with the military being deployed in parts of the country to help reinforce lockdown rules. A Q3 contraction is largely expected and pushed back rate hike expectations to 2023. On the China front, we’re watching Iron Ore prices that have fell over 30% from their 2021 highs with China’s economic slowdown and attempts at reducing emissions by raising steel product tariffs touted as main drivers. As Iron Ore is almost 24% of Australia’s exports and over 80% of that goes to China it’s an important one to keep track of as further downside should negatively impact Australia’s terms of trade. Staying with China, the health of the Chinese economy is still in focus after the PBoC’s recent 0.5% RRR cut. The easing has raised concerns about a bigger-than-expected slowdown and as Australia’s biggest trade partner and the second largest contributor to global GDP it’s an important driver to keep on the radar. Politically, the risk of further tariffs and bans on Australian goods is also something to keep on the radar.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBA
The RBA surprised markets with their previous meeting by not announcing a delay to their September tapering as most participants had expected. They kept their planned QE tapering of A$1bln in place for Sep until mid-Nov where they still plan to decide the future of their QE program. The meeting minutes pressured AUD this week as it showed that the board considered the case for delaying the tapering This was interesting because the bank seemed very content about the economic outlook during their statement. But the minutes showed that a possible delay was on the cards, and if they were already concerned at the meeting the recent escalation should provide even more angst and could still see a delay in the tapering taking place.
3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, AUD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the AUD (updated until 24 August) showed a positioning change of -6233 with a net non-commercial position of -56600. Another big reduction in net-shorts for the AUD, and even though our bias for the AUD remains neutral, the speed of the recent build up in net- short positioning is still looking stretched at 3.02 deviation on a 1-year lookback and a 2.10 deviation on a 6-month lookback, thus watch out for mean reversion squeezes higher on good news.