GBP AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Virus Situation
The successful vaccination program has allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers & provides a favourable environment for GBP.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE
The BoE meeting on 5 August provided a flurry of comments with something for the doves and the hawks. The QE vote split was a tad more dovish with a 7-1 split with BoE’s Saunders to only dissenter, while the upgrades to growth and inflation were positive but with similar comments of ‘transitory’ price pressures muting any real market impact . The reasons for the bank to remain patient right now in terms of policy normalization is the current uncertainty surrounding the virus and of course the bank waiting for the end of the furlough scheme to assess the impact on the labour market. That means, that the bank would arguably be in wait-and-see mode until at least October or November. The other change that was important to take note of was the reduction in the bank’s QT threshold from 1.5% to 0.5%, with the bank looking at a bank rate of 0.5% to stop reinvesting maturing assets and a rate of 1.0% to start selling assets and reducing the balance sheet . Market participants are mixed about what this means for the bank as on the one end it’s positive since the bank has enough confidence to lower the balance sheet even while rates are low, but on the other end it also means that rates can stay lower for much longer which is more negative. Arguably the most important comments to take away was their continued optimism about the economy despite the uncertainty as well as their comments that modest tightening will be required.
3. The country’s economic developments
Hopes of a fast economic recovery has seen the BOE and IMF upgrade GDP projections for the UK which has widened the growth differentials between other major economies by quite a bit. As the economy continues to rebound this should continue to be supportive for GBP as long as the data reflects that. Something to be mindful of is that a lot of these positives are arguably reflected in the price. Thus, if we start to see some disappointing data, that could mean that decent upside would be more difficult for Sterling to maintain.
4. Political Developments
Remember Brexit? Yeah, me neither, but this week the rhetoric between the two sides continued to go in the wrong direction with the UK side explaining to the EU that they are looking at all the options on the table (include article 16) if they can’t reach an agreement with the EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road.
5. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the GBP (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -21396 with a net non-commercial position of -16745. The big push lower in positioning means current levels for GBP still look attractive for med-term buyers, especially with the positioning seeing quite a flush lower in the past few weeks. The miss in both retail sales and inflation last week did see some additional pain on the Pound two weeks ago, and this week’s flash PMI’s didn’t help either, but med-term outlook remains bullish and thus positioning attractive at these levels.
AUD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL
1. The country’s economic and health developments
The key factors that have created uncertainty for the med-term outlook for the AUD are The virus situation rising cases prompted new lockdowns with the military being deployed in parts of the country to help reinforce lockdown rules. A Q3 contraction is largely expected and pushed back rate hike expectations to 2023. On the China front, we’re watching Iron Ore prices that have fell over 30% from their 2021 highs with China’s economic slowdown and attempts at reducing emissions by raising steel product tariffs touted as main drivers. As Iron Ore is almost 24% of Australia’s exports and over 80% of that goes to China it’s an important one to keep track of as further downside should negatively impact Australia’s terms of trade. Staying with China, the health of the Chinese economy is still in focus after the PBoC’s recent 0.5% RRR cut. The easing has raised concerns about a bigger-than-expected slowdown and as Australia’s biggest trade partner and the second largest contributor to global GDP it’s an important driver to keep on the radar. Politically, the risk of further tariffs and bans on Australian goods is also something to keep on the radar.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBA
The RBA surprised markets with their previous meeting by not announcing a delay to their September tapering as most participants had expected. They kept their planned QE tapering of A$1bln in place for Sep until mid-Nov where they still plan to decide the future of their QE program. The meeting minutes pressured AUD this week as it showed that the board considered the case for delaying the tapering This was interesting because the bank seemed very content about the economic outlook during their statement. But the minutes showed that a possible delay was on the cards, and if they were already concerned at the meeting the recent escalation should provide even more angst and could still see a delay in the tapering taking place.
3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, AUD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term, but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the AUD (updated until 24 August) showed a positioning change of -6233 with a net non-commercial position of -56600. Another big reduction in net-shorts for the AUD, and even though our bias for the AUD remains neutral, the speed of the recent build up in net- short positioning is still looking stretched at 3.02 deviation on a 1-year lookback and a 2.10 deviation on a 6-month lookback, thus watch out for mean reversion squeezes higher on good news.
Gbp-aud
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUD. There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.9045).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 42.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.8875
TP2= @ 1.8735
TP3= @ 1.8570
TP4= @ 1.8512
TP5= @ 1.8427
SL: Break Above R2
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💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUD. There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.9045).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 42.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.8875
TP2= @ 1.8735
TP3= @ 1.8570
TP4= @ 1.8512
TP5= @ 1.8427
SL: Break Above R2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader?
Now, It's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
GBPAUD Facing bearish pressure | 24 Aug 2021GBPAUD holding below descending trendline resistance. With technical indicators showing room for further bearish momentum, a short term drop below our entry at 1.90225 towards our profit level where we have long term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.89122 could be possible.
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GBPAUD should side way for time being...
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GBPAUDPattern: Bullish triangle
Confirmation: Uptrend / Yes. Price being wedged between support and trend.
Entry: we are either going to see this break upwards out the triangle trend down to continue its bull run or see it test a potential new marked support shown on graph which would also bounce off of 0.618%. I do anticipate this to continue its long term up trend but will enter on price action and price volume size as it approaches breakout.
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GBP/AUD Clean trade coming up (INTRADAY!!) Daytrade.Hello there traders!
As always we provide you with analysis on tradingview.
Currently we are looking at the pair GBP/AUD where we had a nice impuls and corrective move.
Structure kept on breaking above and now made a lower low/high.
Bearish pressure is allready pushing market-price down.
We also have seen the counter-trendline break wich indicates we are bearish.
Last but not least we see the market create a potential H&S wich also indicates the bears are ready.
So now we wait for our indicators to give us a valid entry and when all rules are satisfied we take the trade.
WAIT FOR THE BREAK AND RETEST!!
Have a good week!
GBPAUD Facing bullish pressure | 11 Aug 2021GBPAUD broke below descending trendline support and is currently trading sideways. A retest of our triple bottom neckline and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.88449 towards ascending trendline resistance zone at 1.89148 could be possible. Stochastic is also testing support where price bounced in the past.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
GBP/AUD - Short Hey Guys,
GA is looking great from the higher timeframes for a longer-term move lower. I have just been tagged into my position for the short, the at least complete to the lows of the larger flag. I took this based on the lower time frame price action of having the first push and flag from the third touch of the larger structured flag.
In this breakdown I explain:
Full top-down analysis
Why I have been away for a while
My gameplan if I was to be tagged out for a loss
my profit levels and management plan
Hope you had a great week all!
As always, if you want me to break down a pair then send me a message.
GBP/AUD:NEW SWING OPPORTUNITY+STOCH DIVERGENCE|LONG 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 4th August 2021GBPAUD approaching buy entry, in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and extension. Prices are expected to rally to take profit, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, prices may fall to stop loss, in line with 78.6% extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Indicator showing bullish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 4th August 2021GBPAUD is approaching 1st support of 1.88006, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.3% Fibonacci extension . Prices are expected to rally to 1st resistance of 1.89551, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices may fall to 2nd support of 1.86891, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Indicator supports a bullish view.
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Oulook on GBPAUD: Pullback presents an opportunity to sellHi everyone, GBPAUD remains under pressure from its daily resistance as well as our H4 descending trend line where we could see a further downside here. A pullback to our H4 resistance at 1.88800 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement presents an opportunity to enter a short, keeping in mind that prices are holding below the resistance area on the daily time frame.
GBPAUD Top of overall price action, watch for bearish reversalHi traders:
As we can see price is currently at the top of the overall price action,
and we are getting some bearish consolidations and structures.
How the price gets there is very important,
we see the HTF parallel channel which started to form after a strong bearish move down.
Within this correctional phase, we can spot some bearish reversal structures.
Even though they are no longer within the parallel channel,
the bearish confluence and price is still valid in m eye, and I am still expecting a strong bearish reversals.
Be on the look out for LTF bearish continuation correction,
and expect price to reverse down to to the swing lows of the recent price.
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
The fact that the AUD is now the second largest net-short position among the majors does not really surprise given the recent string of negative factors such as the virus situation, slowing economic data in China and falling Iron Ore prices. This week we have the RBA policy decision coming up and markets want to know how stressed the bank has become given the recent challenges.
It seems that consensus is expecting the bank to cancel their planned tapering that would have started in September, with more aggressive bets forecasting the bank to announce a higher pace of QE at this week’s meeting. Either way it will be an important one to watch for the AUD.
For the NZD and CAD continued to move closer to neutral positioning. For the CAD this was hardly a surprise given the stretched positioning to begin with, but the NZD was a surprise with the currency not being able to take meaningful advantage of the most hawkish central bank among the majors.
This week the quarterly employment data from New Zealand will be crucially important as it will be the last big ticket data points before the August RBNZ policy decision and could either seal the deal for a hike or could push back some of those expectations in the event of a very big miss.
JPY, CHF & USD:
The JPY remains the biggest net short among the majors, and surprisingly has failed to take any real advantage of the drop lower in US10Y. Given the wash out in treasury positions and the move towards 1.14% in US10Y the JPY has not really taken the bait to appreciate as one would have thought.
Thus, even though the currency remains oversold from a positioning point of view, it does show that there is some possible asymmetry in long USDJPY right now as a move lower in yields have not negatively affected the pair, and at these lows the probability is skewed towards US10Y upside.
For the Dollar, it’s going to be a very data heavy week with the main event being Friday’s July jobs report. As the Fed’s focus has shifted away from inflation and towards the labour market, the jobs data will be watched closely as a gauge to see whether we are moving towards or away from the Fed’s goal of ‘substantial further progress’. Make sure to also keep track of the data points feeding into Friday’s NFP such as the two ISM PMI reports as well as the ADP National Employment data.
GBP:
The Pound is still in a net-short positioning despite the fundamental outlook still remaining bullish for the currency. That is a positive in our view as it shows that a lot of the frothy positioning has been flushed out after the June FOMC meeting.
This week the main event for the GBP will be the upcoming BoE policy decision coming up on Thursday. With hawkish comments from BoE’s Saunders, some participants have argued that we could see a possible dissention at this week’s meeting on whether to continue with QE or whether to cut back.
For now, it seems premature for the bank to cut purchases with the furlough scheme still needing to be unwound. The bank would arguably want to see how the labour market holds up before they commit to normalization, and that means waiting until at least October, in which case they would only have about 6 weeks of purchases left, which means the higher likelihood right now is that QE runs out as expected.
EUR:
For the EUR net-long positioning has continued to fall with the data updated until 26 July. As expected, the EUR managed to grind out some mild gains against the greenback, but unfortunately given the choppy price action going into FOMC we weren’t able to benefit the rewards and was taken out at break-even on our long EURUSD positions.
This week, with a light calendar for the EUR it’s going to be a very Dollar focused week for the EUR in general. The weak bearish bias remains intact fundamentally, so any continued upside in EURUSD into key resistance areas could set up some interesting shorting opportunities.
However, with such a busy data week ahead, it might be best to wait for data points before engaging the market, especially as we are now officially in the thinner liquidity and lower volume month of August, we might be in store for some choppy price action in between key data points.