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Gbp-aud

GBP/AUD - Short Hey Guys, GA is looking great from the higher timeframes for a longer-term move lower. I have just been tagged into my position for the short, the at least complete to the lows of the larger flag. I took this based on the lower time frame price action of having the first push and flag from the third touch of the larger structured flag. In this breakdown I explain: Full top-down analysis Why I have been away for a while My gameplan if I was to be tagged out for a loss my profit levels and management plan Hope you had a great week all! As always, if you want me to break down a pair then send me a message.
Short
by HarrisonForexx
GBP/AUD:NEW SWING OPPORTUNITY+STOCH DIVERGENCE|LONG 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links in Description and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page and Ideas by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 4th August 2021GBPAUD approaching buy entry, in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and extension. Prices are expected to rally to take profit, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, prices may fall to stop loss, in line with 78.6% extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Indicator showing bullish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 4th August 2021GBPAUD is approaching 1st support of 1.88006, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.3% Fibonacci extension . Prices are expected to rally to 1st resistance of 1.89551, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices may fall to 2nd support of 1.86891, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Indicator supports a bullish view. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
GBPAUD Top of overall price action, watch for bearish reversalHi traders: As we can see price is currently at the top of the overall price action, and we are getting some bearish consolidations and structures. How the price gets there is very important, we see the HTF parallel channel which started to form after a strong bearish move down. Within this correctional phase, we can spot some bearish reversal structures. Even though they are no longer within the parallel channel, the bearish confluence and price is still valid in m eye, and I am still expecting a strong bearish reversals. Be on the look out for LTF bearish continuation correction, and expect price to reverse down to to the swing lows of the recent price.
Short
by jojofang0901
43
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The fact that the AUD is now the second largest net-short position among the majors does not really surprise given the recent string of negative factors such as the virus situation, slowing economic data in China and falling Iron Ore prices. This week we have the RBA policy decision coming up and markets want to know how stressed the bank has become given the recent challenges. It seems that consensus is expecting the bank to cancel their planned tapering that would have started in September, with more aggressive bets forecasting the bank to announce a higher pace of QE at this week’s meeting. Either way it will be an important one to watch for the AUD. For the NZD and CAD continued to move closer to neutral positioning. For the CAD this was hardly a surprise given the stretched positioning to begin with, but the NZD was a surprise with the currency not being able to take meaningful advantage of the most hawkish central bank among the majors. This week the quarterly employment data from New Zealand will be crucially important as it will be the last big ticket data points before the August RBNZ policy decision and could either seal the deal for a hike or could push back some of those expectations in the event of a very big miss. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY remains the biggest net short among the majors, and surprisingly has failed to take any real advantage of the drop lower in US10Y. Given the wash out in treasury positions and the move towards 1.14% in US10Y the JPY has not really taken the bait to appreciate as one would have thought. Thus, even though the currency remains oversold from a positioning point of view, it does show that there is some possible asymmetry in long USDJPY right now as a move lower in yields have not negatively affected the pair, and at these lows the probability is skewed towards US10Y upside. For the Dollar, it’s going to be a very data heavy week with the main event being Friday’s July jobs report. As the Fed’s focus has shifted away from inflation and towards the labour market, the jobs data will be watched closely as a gauge to see whether we are moving towards or away from the Fed’s goal of ‘substantial further progress’. Make sure to also keep track of the data points feeding into Friday’s NFP such as the two ISM PMI reports as well as the ADP National Employment data. GBP: The Pound is still in a net-short positioning despite the fundamental outlook still remaining bullish for the currency. That is a positive in our view as it shows that a lot of the frothy positioning has been flushed out after the June FOMC meeting. This week the main event for the GBP will be the upcoming BoE policy decision coming up on Thursday. With hawkish comments from BoE’s Saunders, some participants have argued that we could see a possible dissention at this week’s meeting on whether to continue with QE or whether to cut back. For now, it seems premature for the bank to cut purchases with the furlough scheme still needing to be unwound. The bank would arguably want to see how the labour market holds up before they commit to normalization, and that means waiting until at least October, in which case they would only have about 6 weeks of purchases left, which means the higher likelihood right now is that QE runs out as expected. EUR: For the EUR net-long positioning has continued to fall with the data updated until 26 July. As expected, the EUR managed to grind out some mild gains against the greenback, but unfortunately given the choppy price action going into FOMC we weren’t able to benefit the rewards and was taken out at break-even on our long EURUSD positions. This week, with a light calendar for the EUR it’s going to be a very Dollar focused week for the EUR in general. The weak bearish bias remains intact fundamentally, so any continued upside in EURUSD into key resistance areas could set up some interesting shorting opportunities. However, with such a busy data week ahead, it might be best to wait for data points before engaging the market, especially as we are now officially in the thinner liquidity and lower volume month of August, we might be in store for some choppy price action in between key data points.
by thunderpips
5
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar edged lower on Monday as investors began positioning themselves ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, with many analysts expecting the Fed to once again defer from a commitment to taper. GBP – Sterling climbed above $1.38 against a broadly weaker dollar on Monday, supported by encouraging data over the weekend showing a fall in COVID-19 cases in Britain. Antipodeans – The Australian dollar slipped on Monday, knocking its kiwi counterpart lower, as the country’s largest cities remained under strict lockdowns amid rising cases of the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta variant.
by thunderpips
2
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: Yet another 13K unwind of net long positions for the CAD in the CFTC data updated until the 20th of July means that a lot of the froth in positioning has been taken care of. Our concerns about positioning for the past few weeks meant a patient stance with CAD longs, but with the size of the unwind we think CAD longs look attractive again on a relative basis. As for the NZD, the currency still looks very ‘cheap’ at the current levels given that the RBNZ is the first major central bank that stopped QE. Apart from that, expectations for rates to go higher in the next three weeks should also provide a favourable environment for the NZD. We like NZD longs versus the Dollar going into this week’s FOMC. We remain patient on AUD with the virus escalation. The challenge for Australia when compared to places like the UK and US is that the vaccination roll out is miles behind. So, if the same type of spike in cases occur it could create a lot of economic pain as we head deeper into Q3. On the radar this week will be employment data, and if that comes in much softer than expected our preferred way to express AUD weakness would be with AUDNZD and AUDCAD downside. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY positioning remains stretched to the downside, and the fast and punchy recovery in equity markets didn’t do the JPY any favours either. However, the inverse correlation with US10Y could still see JPY pressured. We’ve seen a lot of downside in US10Y over the past few weeks, beyond what majority of market participants (us included) were anticipating. The downside in yields meant one less negative driver for the JPY. But as a ton of the stretched positioning in treasury shorts have arguably been flushed out, we could see yields regain some upside momentum again. For the USD, this week we are turning slightly more cautious on the Dollar. Yes, the USD had good reason to see the upside it enjoyed over the past few weeks. But as the markets are looking for a slightly more cautious sounding Fed this week (due to the Delta variant), and since short-term the price action is looking a bit stretched, there could be some downside for the USD going into the FOMC. GBP: The GBP put in a decent recovery from the lows this week. Monday saw some downside as participants were disappointing when the most dovish member of the BoE said some dovish things. Hardly the type of reaction one would expect, but after the comments from Saunders the week before there was some hope that the overly dovish Haskel might do the same. However, despite the Monday sell off we saw Sterling put in a solid recovery, despite ongoing tensions between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. At the current levels, especially with positioning back into net short, one has to argue that GBP is looking attractive from a value perspective. As the markets are expecting a cautious sounding Fed this week, one of the ways we would like to express potential USD weakness in the week ahead is against the GBP. Obviously, we’ll need to keep close track of any major negative escalations on the political front. EUR: The EUR has seen a sizable push lower ever since we had the less dovish than expected June FOMC meeting. After that, the Dollar has enjoyed further upside from various drivers which has kept the EUR pressured, and the ECB’s continued dovish tone sure hasn’t helped. We have been very patient in chasing the EURUSD lower after finding the support around 1.1780 – 1.1850 as a very tough nut to crack. Even though we maintain a fundamental bearish outlook on the EUR and the EURUSD one has to argue that the downside looks a tad stretched. Positioning seems to agree with this as we’ve seen a whopping 72000 reduction in net long positioning in the past 5 weeks (that’s a lot). Yes, the overall net long positioning still looks way too high for the fundamental outlook, but timing doesn’t favour chasing the EUR lower from here. At the current levels the risk-to-reward does look attractive for a possible short-term mean reversion opportunity to the upside for EURUSD going into the FOMC, that is barring any possible risk off environments which should be supportive for the USD. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 July 2021.
by thunderpips
7
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 9th July 2021GBPAUD is facing bullish pressure as it continues to hold above the moving average and ascending trendline supports. We could see a bounce at Buy Entry, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , moving average support and horizontal pullback support, and further upside towards Take Profit, in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
3
GBPAUD approaching 1st support, potential bounce!Price is approaching 1st support, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and ascending trendline support. We could see a bounce and further upside towards 1st resistance, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Stochastics is also approaching support where price has bounced from in the past, showing signs of bullish pressure. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 30th June 2021GBPAUD is facing bullish pressure, as it continues to hold above ascending trendline and moving average support, in line with our bullish bias. We could potentially see price bounce at Buy Entry, in line with 23.6%, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback support, and rise towards Take Profit, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure, potential for further upside!Price is facing bullish pressure as it continues to hold above the ascending trendline and moving average supports, in line with our bullish bias. We could see further upside above 1st support, in line with 23.6%, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback support, towards 1st resistance, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub