COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
Yet another 13K unwind of net long positions for the CAD in the CFTC data updated until the 20th of July means that a lot of the froth in positioning has been taken care of. Our concerns about positioning for the past few weeks meant a patient stance with CAD longs, but with the size of the unwind we think CAD longs look attractive again on a relative basis.
As for the NZD, the currency still looks very ‘cheap’ at the current levels given that the RBNZ is the first major central bank that stopped QE. Apart from that, expectations for rates to go higher in the next three weeks should also provide a favourable environment for the NZD. We like NZD longs versus the Dollar going into this week’s FOMC.
We remain patient on AUD with the virus escalation. The challenge for Australia when compared to places like the UK and US is that the vaccination roll out is miles behind. So, if the same type of spike in cases occur it could create a lot of economic pain as we head deeper into Q3. On the radar this week will be employment data, and if that comes in much softer than expected our preferred way to express AUD weakness would be with AUDNZD and AUDCAD downside.
JPY, CHF & USD:
The JPY positioning remains stretched to the downside, and the fast and punchy recovery in equity markets didn’t do the JPY any favours either. However, the inverse correlation with US10Y could still see JPY pressured.
We’ve seen a lot of downside in US10Y over the past few weeks, beyond what majority of market participants (us included) were anticipating. The downside in yields meant one less negative driver for the JPY. But as a ton of the stretched positioning in treasury shorts have arguably been flushed out, we could see yields regain some upside momentum again.
For the USD, this week we are turning slightly more cautious on the Dollar. Yes, the USD had good reason to see the upside it enjoyed over the past few weeks. But as the markets are looking for a slightly more cautious sounding Fed this week (due to the Delta variant), and since short-term the price action is looking a bit stretched, there could be some downside for the USD going into the FOMC.
GBP:
The GBP put in a decent recovery from the lows this week. Monday saw some downside as participants were disappointing when the most dovish member of the BoE said some dovish things. Hardly the type of reaction one would expect, but after the comments from Saunders the week before there was some hope that the overly dovish Haskel might do the same.
However, despite the Monday sell off we saw Sterling put in a solid recovery, despite ongoing tensions between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. At the current levels, especially with positioning back into net short, one has to argue that GBP is looking attractive from a value perspective.
As the markets are expecting a cautious sounding Fed this week, one of the ways we would like to express potential USD weakness in the week ahead is against the GBP. Obviously, we’ll need to keep close track of any major negative escalations on the political front.
EUR:
The EUR has seen a sizable push lower ever since we had the less dovish than expected June FOMC meeting. After that, the Dollar has enjoyed further upside from various drivers which has kept the EUR pressured, and the ECB’s continued dovish tone sure hasn’t helped.
We have been very patient in chasing the EURUSD lower after finding the support around 1.1780 – 1.1850 as a very tough nut to crack. Even though we maintain a fundamental bearish outlook on the EUR and the EURUSD one has to argue that the downside looks a tad stretched.
Positioning seems to agree with this as we’ve seen a whopping 72000 reduction in net long positioning in the past 5 weeks (that’s a lot). Yes, the overall net long positioning still looks way too high for the fundamental outlook, but timing doesn’t favour chasing the EUR lower from here.
At the current levels the risk-to-reward does look attractive for a possible short-term mean reversion opportunity to the upside for EURUSD going into the FOMC, that is barring any possible risk off environments which should be supportive for the USD.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 July 2021.
Gbp-aud
GBP/AUD - LongTechnical:
- Ascending channel
- Following the 4H EMA
- Looking for rejection previous resistance and the support line of the channel for bullish confirmation
Will wait for bullish confluence among indicators (currently not in our favor) before entry, to further increase trade probability.
Fundamentals:
- The UK unlocking on Monday 19th could see a boost in the economy as spending continues in the public sector
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 9th July 2021GBPAUD is facing bullish pressure as it continues to hold above the moving average and ascending trendline supports. We could see a bounce at Buy Entry, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , moving average support and horizontal pullback support, and further upside towards Take Profit, in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
GBPAUD / SHORTGA ROLLOVER to met lower territory, correlate this picture and the PA (Price Action) with the 1H and mainly the INTRADAY 15M we can clearly see the Sipkey Candle Behaviour to the upside.
a few Confluences: Highs of Previous Sessions, Bearish Triangle, Key PSY level, Orderblock/Liqudity Zone , Demand/Ressistance as Priceaction
*Indikators as confluence we have
68.18 FIB ,crossing and respecting EMA , Volume Bars.
GBPAUD approaching 1st support, potential bounce!Price is approaching 1st support, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and ascending trendline support. We could see a bounce and further upside towards 1st resistance, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Stochastics is also approaching support where price has bounced from in the past, showing signs of bullish pressure.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
GBPAUD| SHORT| Areas of interestDaily Trend: SELL
LP Sentiment: 42%
Looking for a pull back into the Sell-side imbalance area for a move lower. I would deem this a counter trend trade against the liquidity provider order-flow, but the technicals are changing to a Selling bias.
Let’s see what the Australian Interest rates have to bring
Focus on seeing this setup happen in the London Session.
Don’t forget to follow us on tradingview
Happy Trading
Mr Ionic
GBPAUD | SHORT | Areas of InterestDaily Trend: SELL
LP Sentiment: 44%
Looking for a pull back into the Sell-side imbalance area for a move lower. I would deem this a counter trend trade againts the liquidity providor orderflow.
Focus on seeing this setup happen in the London Session.
Don’t forget to follow us on tradingview
Happy Trading
Mr Ionic
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 30th June 2021GBPAUD is facing bullish pressure, as it continues to hold above ascending trendline and moving average support, in line with our bullish bias. We could potentially see price bounce at Buy Entry, in line with 23.6%, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback support, and rise towards Take Profit, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure, potential for further upside!Price is facing bullish pressure as it continues to hold above the ascending trendline and moving average supports, in line with our bullish bias. We could see further upside above 1st support, in line with 23.6%, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback support, towards 1st resistance, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
GBPAUD bullish breakout, potential for further rise!Price has shown a bullish breakout from the descending trendline resistance-turned-support, and is now holding above the moving average support as well. We could see a further rise above 1st support, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support, towards 1st resistance, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.8372).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 26.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.8300
TP2= @ 1.8265
TP3= @ 1.8215
TP4= @ 1.8165
TP5= @ 1.8110
SL: Break Above R2
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💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.8372).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 26.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.8300
TP2= @ 1.8265
TP3= @ 1.8215
TP4= @ 1.8165
TP5= @ 1.8110
SL: Break Above R2
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. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
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💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.8517).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 48.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.8404
TP2= @ 1.8327
TP3= @ 1.8235
TP4= @ 1.8167
TP5= @ 1.8103
TP6= @ 1.7945
SL: Break Above R2
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. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
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💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.8517).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 48.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.8404
TP2= @ 1.8327
TP3= @ 1.8235
TP4= @ 1.8167
TP5= @ 1.8103
TP6= @ 1.7945
SL: Break Above R2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️
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Now, It's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
GBPAUD a long opportunity 🦐GBPAUD after the test of the weekly resistance moved below to the support area at the 1.82250 area.
The price bounced over the lower trendline of an ascending channel and now approaches a structure.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Prices potential for bounce| 21st June 2021Prices are approaching ascending trendline support as well as horizontal swing low support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push up towards horizontal swing high resistance in line with 88% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. If prices continue to push down, prices might take support from horizontal swing low support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.