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Gbp-aud

COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change once again among the majors after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. The recent comments from the BOC about the CAD’s strength are a reason for us to pay attention to current levels in USDCAD. Arguably a lot of the positives for the CAD is already reflected in the price, and the market will want to see more and more positive surprises to justify further moves lower so keep that in mind. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will remain on commodities, more specifically Iron Ore. China has become uncomfortable about the rise in commodity prices and is stepping in to try and curb the rise. After solid moves in recent months for Iron Ore some pullback is to be expected, but will be an important negative consideration for the AUD. For the NZD, this week we do have the upcoming RBNZ policy meeting. Going into the meeting, markets are expecting an upgrade to the economic outlook from the bank, but most are of the opinion that it’s too soon for the bank to change policy direction, at least verbally (bond purchases has been slowing recently). If the bank does bring forward rate hike expectations like that of the BOC, which is a slim possibility, that could of course create some upside volatility for the NZD. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. As the growth and inflation outlook remains positive for the US, the path of least resistance for yields remains titled higher which should keep the JPY lower apart from possible short-term risk off flows of course. For the USD, as we explained last week, the focus isn’t just on nominal bond yields but also on real yields, which has continued to remain very close to cycle lows as nominal yields have moved largely rangebound while inflation expectations have trended higher. Any change in real yields will be a very important consideration for the Dollar, as well as any further comments from FED members regarding tapering deliberations. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. The economic data last week (Jobs, CPI, Retail Sales and PMI’s) once again confirmed the market’s expectations of a faster and better-than-expected economic rebound in the UK. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson has warned that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure, potential for further upside!Price is facing bullish pressure as it continues to hold above the ascending trendline and Ichimoku cloud support, in line with our bullish bias. We could see price bounce at 1st support, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback support, and further upside towards 1st resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
GBPAUD for new recent highs 🦐GBPAUD after the last impulse retraced until the 0.5 Fibonacci level. The price is moving below a daily resistance and soon will test it once again. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change among the majors, moving into second place below the EUR. The fundamental outlook for the CAD remains intact after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. However, it seems like the BOC has taken notice of the rapid CAD appreciation and have fired a warning shot last week and given the markets an indication that USDCAD is approaching levels that could impact export competitiveness. Even though this doesn’t change the bullish outlook, it does pose a risk in the med-term. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will turn to jobs data but also the Iron Ore prices. After a stellar run to the upside, it seems that China has finally stepped in to try and cool down the meteoric rise by banning steelmakers in Tangshan City (14% of China’s steel production) from fabricating or spreading price-hike information. The move worked as Iron Ore prices took a tumble, but it’s worth noting that both Iron Ore and Copper saw some profit taking and overdue mean reversion earlier last week as well. With strong trends like these, seeing some pullback is to be expected, and as such they will be sensitive to potential bigger price reactions on news like this. For now, the med-term bias for the AUD remains intact, but this is something to keep in mind as a substantial correction in Iron Ore is expected to weigh on the Antipodean currency. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. After the big beat in US CPI, we saw US10Y resume its med-term uptrend, and saw USDJPY push higher as well. As long as US10Y remains firm, we would expect that to put more upside downward pressure on JPY. As for the USD, a key focus point right now is real yields. A move higher in nominal 10-year yields will not be a lot of help for the reflation-battered Dollar if real yields continue to stay suppressed. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Recent data has made it clear that the economic recovery is well underway, and markets are looking towards this week’s economic data to confirm that view. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson warned on Friday that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 11 May 2021.
by thunderpips
1
GBPAUD - FOREX - 03. MAY. 2021Welcome to our weekly trade setup ( GBPAUD )! - 1 HOUR Bearish break below main sr level. 4 HOUR Price consolidation with possible breakout shortly. DAILY Overall bearish market structure, looking for another break towards previous lows. - FOREX SETUP SELL GBPAUD ENTRY LEVEL @ 1.79170 SL @ 1.79890 TP @ 1.78060 Max Risk: 0.5% - 1%! (Remember to add a few pips to all levels - different Brokers!) Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive. Have a great week everyone! ALAN
Short
by DACapitalTrading
5
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The latest CFTC data for the CAD was surprisingly low with the most recent update, especially after the data included the price action following the BOC’s hawkish tilt. However, what was not reflected in the data has been made up in good measure in the price action we saw this past week as the CAD’s fundamental realities kicked into high gear and pushed CAD higher. For the AUD and NZD, the week does hold some risk events to take note of such as quarterly Employment data for New Zealand as well as a press conference with Governor Orr after the release of the financial stability report. For the AUD, we also have the RBA meeting coming up on Tuesday where market participants are not expecting anything new from the bank. Furthermore, the increased volatility in equities over the past few days means that we do of course want to be mindful of any fluctuations in risk tones as they remain a key external driver for all three the high beta majors. JPY, CHF & USD: What to make of the Dollar on Friday? Firstly, technically speaking the currency was looking a bit stretched to the downside after having almost three straight weeks of selling. Secondly, the recovery in US 10-Year bond yields provided a welcome reprieve for the greenback. Thirdly, the more hawkish comments from FED’s Kaplan on Friday also spurred some upside for the Dollar by talks of tapering discussions and rates lifting off in 2022, but keep in mind that Kaplan is considered as a hawk so even though these comments are positive, they are not as positive when compared to coming from someone like Powell or Clarida for example. After a pretty impressive run higher for the JPY, the move higher in US 10-Year bond yields once again showed the strong inverse correlation between the two assets with the JPY pushing lower this week despite some risk off flows seen in equities (which is usually expected to be positive for safe havens). In the week ahead, focus for both the USD and JPY will remain firmly fixed on bond yields as well as the overall risk sentiment in the market. GBP: GBPUSD took quite the tumble on Friday as the Dollar gained some momentum, and also suffered against other major counterparts as well. The fundamental bullish outlook remains intact, and this week attention will turn to the BOE policy decision coming up on Thursday, as well as the UK’s local elections and Scottish Parliamentary elections. Between the elections and the BOE, the more important event will arguably be the BOE where there is a growing number of participants calling for a potential tapering announcement by the bank this week, but there is a few caveats to this which is important to keep in mind. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. Friday did of course see some overdue correction playing out for the USD which saw a sizeable push lower in the majors across the board. As the fundamental outlook remains unchanged in our view, the Dollar’s movements will be very important for the single currency this week. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 27 April 2021.
by thunderpips