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Gbp-aud

GBPAUD approaching buy entry level | 7th June 2021GBPAUD is approaching buy entry level, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , ascending trendline support and horizontal overlap support. We could see a bounce and further rise towards take profit level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Stochastics is also testing the support level where it has reacted off of before, in line with our analysis. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
GBPAUD test the 0.5 Fib 🦐GBPAUD after the recent high, below the weekly resistance, tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracements over a daily support. The market is now moving to the 1.83300 resistance and according to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
GBPAUD testing 1st support, potential for a bounce!Price is testing 1st support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback support. We could potentially see a bounce and further rise up to test 1st resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Price is also holding above the ascending trendline and moving average support, in line with our bullish bias. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It was a big week for the NZD after the RBNZ followed in the BOC’s footsteps by bringing forward rate hike projections to Sep 2022. Keep in mind the reason why we haven’t seen a correspondingly big uptick in NZD positioning is because the CFTC data is only updated every Tuesday and does not include the big moves seen in the NZD from Wednesday. For the CAD, even though the bias remains unchanged, sitting at over 44K net-long, the second largest among the G10, one has to argue that the CAD has been looking rather stretched at its current levels. That, of course, doesn’t mean the bias has changed, but it does not mean at these levels the risk to reward to continue buying the CAD doesn’t look that attractive. In the week ahead for the AUD, we do have the RBA policy meeting coming up. However, the more anticipated meeting is the July one as the bank previously highlighted that they would use the July meeting to provide additional guidance regarding their QE program and their Yield Curve Control. Thus, the June meeting are not expected to provide any real fireworks. JPY, CHF & USD: Real yields, FED policy and Reflation expectations continue to be key drivers for the US Dollar. That means that incoming data will be very important for the market as it will be used as a gauge to determine how far or how close FED tapering will be. In the week ahead there are several important data points coming up which will be interesting inputs for the US Dollar. What a week it was for the JPY, which fell off the proverbial cliff at the latter part of the week. Pressured not only by US10Y staging a bit of a recovery on Thursday, but more influenced by month end flows where Citi bank noted that they estimate Japanese investors will need to sell JPY to reduce hedges on foreign bonds. With month-end effects mostly out of the way, the focus for the JPY will once again fall on US yields. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Positioning has once again reflected the bullish bias as the biggest build in net-long positions with the most recent CFTC data. Sterling made some impressive runs in the past week as the markets reacted very favourably to comments from BOE’s Vlieghe who noted that there could be scope for faster policy normalization if the economy develops in line with their estimates and more importantly if the negative impact from the phasing out of the furlough scheme is contained. Markets took the news very positively, as they were hawkish comments from a more neutral central bank member. However, they comments were very conditional on the labour market staying firm after furlough ends. Also, Vlieghe won’t be at the bank after August which means that his comments surrounding monetary policy should be taking with a pinch of salt as it does not necessarily represent the views of the actual voting members. It’s going to be a quiet week ahead for the GBP in terms of economic data. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
14
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change once again among the majors after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. The recent comments from the BOC about the CAD’s strength are a reason for us to pay attention to current levels in USDCAD. Arguably a lot of the positives for the CAD is already reflected in the price, and the market will want to see more and more positive surprises to justify further moves lower so keep that in mind. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will remain on commodities, more specifically Iron Ore. China has become uncomfortable about the rise in commodity prices and is stepping in to try and curb the rise. After solid moves in recent months for Iron Ore some pullback is to be expected, but will be an important negative consideration for the AUD. For the NZD, this week we do have the upcoming RBNZ policy meeting. Going into the meeting, markets are expecting an upgrade to the economic outlook from the bank, but most are of the opinion that it’s too soon for the bank to change policy direction, at least verbally (bond purchases has been slowing recently). If the bank does bring forward rate hike expectations like that of the BOC, which is a slim possibility, that could of course create some upside volatility for the NZD. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. As the growth and inflation outlook remains positive for the US, the path of least resistance for yields remains titled higher which should keep the JPY lower apart from possible short-term risk off flows of course. For the USD, as we explained last week, the focus isn’t just on nominal bond yields but also on real yields, which has continued to remain very close to cycle lows as nominal yields have moved largely rangebound while inflation expectations have trended higher. Any change in real yields will be a very important consideration for the Dollar, as well as any further comments from FED members regarding tapering deliberations. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. The economic data last week (Jobs, CPI, Retail Sales and PMI’s) once again confirmed the market’s expectations of a faster and better-than-expected economic rebound in the UK. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson has warned that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure, potential for further upside!Price is facing bullish pressure as it continues to hold above the ascending trendline and Ichimoku cloud support, in line with our bullish bias. We could see price bounce at 1st support, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback support, and further upside towards 1st resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
GBPAUD for new recent highs 🦐GBPAUD after the last impulse retraced until the 0.5 Fibonacci level. The price is moving below a daily resistance and soon will test it once again. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change among the majors, moving into second place below the EUR. The fundamental outlook for the CAD remains intact after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. However, it seems like the BOC has taken notice of the rapid CAD appreciation and have fired a warning shot last week and given the markets an indication that USDCAD is approaching levels that could impact export competitiveness. Even though this doesn’t change the bullish outlook, it does pose a risk in the med-term. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will turn to jobs data but also the Iron Ore prices. After a stellar run to the upside, it seems that China has finally stepped in to try and cool down the meteoric rise by banning steelmakers in Tangshan City (14% of China’s steel production) from fabricating or spreading price-hike information. The move worked as Iron Ore prices took a tumble, but it’s worth noting that both Iron Ore and Copper saw some profit taking and overdue mean reversion earlier last week as well. With strong trends like these, seeing some pullback is to be expected, and as such they will be sensitive to potential bigger price reactions on news like this. For now, the med-term bias for the AUD remains intact, but this is something to keep in mind as a substantial correction in Iron Ore is expected to weigh on the Antipodean currency. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. After the big beat in US CPI, we saw US10Y resume its med-term uptrend, and saw USDJPY push higher as well. As long as US10Y remains firm, we would expect that to put more upside downward pressure on JPY. As for the USD, a key focus point right now is real yields. A move higher in nominal 10-year yields will not be a lot of help for the reflation-battered Dollar if real yields continue to stay suppressed. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Recent data has made it clear that the economic recovery is well underway, and markets are looking towards this week’s economic data to confirm that view. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson warned on Friday that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 11 May 2021.
by thunderpips
1