GBPAUDAdditional entries, consolidation zone breaking out, weeks high re-rested. 1.7950 can still reject, be cautious on that.
Gbp-aud
GBPAUD turned at the 0.618 🦐GBPAUD after the bounce over the support area at the 1.77500 moved with an impulse exactly at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracements where the market started an inversion.
According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break below the support we will set a nice short order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
GBPAUD facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!Price is facing bearish pressure as it continues to hold below the descending trendline resistance and Ichimoku cloud, in line with our bearish bias. Price could potentially reverse at 1st resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance and descending trendline resistance, and further downside towards 1st support, in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support.
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GBPAUD facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!Prices are facing bearish pressure from horizontal swing high resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards horizontal swing low support which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. If prices push up further, prices might face resistance from horizontal swing high resistance in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extensions. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
The biggest mover among the three high beta majors was the CAD which showed a fairly big increase in net long positioning of +10K. What is even more interesting about this is that it occurred before the BOC meeting on Wednesday, which means this Friday’s data should show yet another big increase in positioning after the hawkish tilt from the BOC.
In terms of the AUD, positioning is back in negative territory after a -5K position change, fairly large and most likely due to the exacerbated downside we saw the AUD two weeks ago with the risk off flush in risk assets which hit the AUD much harder than it’s high beta counterparts.
This week will be fairly light on the data front for the CAD and NZD with CPI data in focus for the AUD. We would expect the CAD’s upward momentum to continue after the BOC’s meeting but as always external factors such as risk sentiment and oil will be important considerations.
JPY, CHF & USD:
US 10-year bond yields remains one of the key drivers for the USDJPY and a key asset to watch for the next direction of the pair. With the overall global risk outlook as well as the med-term bias for US10Y still tilted higher, we still expect USDJPY to drift higher and would keep a close eye on the price action for additional upside opportunities.
As for the Dollar, not much has changed. The med-term bias remains titled to the downside, and the move lower in US10Y has certainly also helped to push the greenback lower. This week we do have the upcoming FOMC meeting as well as Q1 GDP.
Even though markets are not expecting a lot from the FOMC there are a few caveats that could create some volatility in the Dollar.
GBP:
Sterling finally started to show more signs of life this past week, but once again did not manage to take advantage of that strength versus the EUR. The market’s continued expectations for a recovery narrative in the EU has continued to keep the EUR supported, alongside a continued push lower in the USD.
The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains unchanged, and with some of the upside positioning being unwound, we would expect the GBP to resume its med-term upside momentum. However, it does seem like markets might be waiting for a catalyst in the short-term to do so.
EUR:
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few sessions as the Dollar has continued to lose favour.
The one positive though, and one of which a lot of participants are banking on right now, is that the vaccination roll out is gaining some positive momentum, and if the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could see a faster recovery in the EU.
However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 April 2021.
GBPAUD turned at the 0.618 🦐GBPAUD after the bounce over the support area at the 1.77500 moved with an impulse exactly at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement where the market started an inversion.
According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break below we will set a nice short order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
GBPAUD facing bearish pressure | 23rd Apr 2021Prices are facing bearish pressure from horizontal swing high resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Prices might push down towards 1st support in line with horizontal swing low support, 127.2% Fibonacci extension, and 161.8% Fibonacci retracement. If prices push higher, prices might face resistance from 1st resistance in line with horizontal swing high resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.
GBPAUD facing bearish pressure | 22th Apr 2021Prices are facing bearihs pressure from pullback resistance, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension . Prices might push down towards 1st support which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. If prices push up further, prices might face resistance from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension , in line with horizontal swing high resistance. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.
GBPAUD facing bearish pressure | 22th Apr 2021Prices are facing bearihs pressure from pullback resistance, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards 1st support which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. If prices push up further, prices might face resistance from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, in line with horizontal swing high resistance. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.
GBPAUD is approaching support, potential bouncePrice is facing bullish pressure from our first support in line with our 61.8% fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support and 127.2% fibonacci extension where we could see a bounce above this level to our first resistance target. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bullish pressure as well, in line with our bullish bias.
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD:
Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 13th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, even after the recent push higher in the likes of the NZD and AUD.
For this week the majority of the attention will turn towards the Canadian Dollar where we will have the BOC's policy and rate decision. Just two weeks ago the expectations that the BOC will look to start tapering their QE program was set in stone, but recent rising virus cases and lockdown restrictions has seen some participants push back these expectations.
Apart from that, the past few sessions the overall global risk outlook has been the main external driver for the AUD & NZD and without any major surprises we would expect the two antipodeans to be largely driven by the risk outlook.
JPY & CHF & USD:
With the US10Y pressured in the past week the JPY was quite resilient among major currencies despite overall positive risk tones. As yields find some equilibrium it will be interesting to see whether the JPY takes its cue more from risk sentiment in the weeks ahead as the strong inverse correlation between US10Y & JPY has been moving lower recently.
The USD once again saw downside despite further solid econ data and largely followed US10Y's path lower. However, it was quite noticeable that the Dollar didn't fall further on Thursday despite US10Y pushing lower with quite some pace.
Friday did see US10Y finding some reprieve alongside the USD. Even though the Dollar's med-term bias remains titled to the downside, we should keep in mind that yields have not been the only driver for the Dollar over the past few weeks as the overall reflation narrative remains a big focus as well.
As the USD's slide coincides with lots of exuberance in equities and VIX treading water on key support, we do need to keep a close eye on overall risk sentiment for some potential mean reversion at some stage, and if equities do have some short-term deleveraging it could see some USD safe haven flows.
GBP:
The two favourites among the FX majors from a fundamental outlook point of view has been the CAD and the GBP, and it's both of them that has been the weakest among the majors over the past two weeks.
Whenever we see price action like this we need to ask ourselves whether anything has changed that could jeopardize the fundamental outlook, and despite some initial concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine, the main drivers for expecting further upside in the Pound is still intact.
However, we also don't want to catch falling knives. In the coming sessions, either waiting for price action to confirm the bullish trend is back in focus or waiting for a positive catalyst to driver the Pound higher seems like the best course of action in the short-term.
EUR:
The upside in the EUR this past two weeks has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus.
Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany".
However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up.
But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 April 2021.
GBPAUD - Bearish Break!This pair as broken then ascending correction with an impulse. We cans see that this pair has made multiple flags on the way down. Simply wait for another bear flag and enter.
We are heavily bearish on the GBP so this would be a good trade. 400 pips atleast!
GBPAUD - Bearish Break!This pair as broken then ascending correction with an impulse. We cans see that this pair has made multiple flags on the way down. Simply wait for another bear flag and enter.
We are heavily bearish on the GBP so this would be a good trade. 400 pips atleast!
Goodluck and trade safe!
GBPAUD BROKE trendline selling opportunity will come around after retest of broken trend line .entry around the horizontal red line
GBPAUD SHORTSwait for the pullback to the 61.8 fib and than
let bearish momentum to continue the down trend
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUDTrading suggestion:
". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested resistance line (0.9672).
if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. GBPAUD is in a range bound and the beginning of downtrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 41.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.7924
TP2= @ 0.9525
TP3= @ 1.7684
TP4= @ 1.7587
TP5= @ 1.7408
SL: Break Above R2
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GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 13th Apr 2021GBPAUD is facing bullish pressure from ascending trendline support which is in line with horizontal pullback support, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension . Prices might push up towards horizontal swing high resistance which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . If prices fall through 1st support, prices might take support from horizontal swing low support, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Ichimoku cloud is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.
GBPAUD facing bullish pressure | 13th Apr 2021GBPAUD is facing bullish pressure from ascending trendline support which is in line with horizontal pullback support, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push up towards horizontal swing high resistance which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. If prices fall through 1st support, prices might take support from horizontal swing low support, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku cloud is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.
GBPAUD is facing bullish pressure | 13 Apr 2021 Price is approaching our support in line with our ascending trend line where we could see a further upside above this level. 20 EMA and Ichimoku cloud are showing signs of bullish pressure as well.
GBPAUD is facing bullish pressure | 13 Apr 2021Price is approaching our support in line with our ascending trend line where we could see a further upside above this level. 20 EMA and Ichimoku cloud are showing signs of bullish pressure as well.
GBPAUD on a channel bounce 🦐GBPAUD on the 4chart reached and bounced over the lower trendline of the channel.
The price from there started a new impulse and according to Plancton's strategy if the conditions will be satisfied we can set a nice long order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
