Get started

Gbp-aud

COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change among the majors, moving into second place below the EUR. The fundamental outlook for the CAD remains intact after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. However, it seems like the BOC has taken notice of the rapid CAD appreciation and have fired a warning shot last week and given the markets an indication that USDCAD is approaching levels that could impact export competitiveness. Even though this doesn’t change the bullish outlook, it does pose a risk in the med-term. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will turn to jobs data but also the Iron Ore prices. After a stellar run to the upside, it seems that China has finally stepped in to try and cool down the meteoric rise by banning steelmakers in Tangshan City (14% of China’s steel production) from fabricating or spreading price-hike information. The move worked as Iron Ore prices took a tumble, but it’s worth noting that both Iron Ore and Copper saw some profit taking and overdue mean reversion earlier last week as well. With strong trends like these, seeing some pullback is to be expected, and as such they will be sensitive to potential bigger price reactions on news like this. For now, the med-term bias for the AUD remains intact, but this is something to keep in mind as a substantial correction in Iron Ore is expected to weigh on the Antipodean currency. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. After the big beat in US CPI, we saw US10Y resume its med-term uptrend, and saw USDJPY push higher as well. As long as US10Y remains firm, we would expect that to put more upside downward pressure on JPY. As for the USD, a key focus point right now is real yields. A move higher in nominal 10-year yields will not be a lot of help for the reflation-battered Dollar if real yields continue to stay suppressed. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Recent data has made it clear that the economic recovery is well underway, and markets are looking towards this week’s economic data to confirm that view. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson warned on Friday that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 11 May 2021.
by thunderpips
1
GBPAUD - FOREX - 03. MAY. 2021Welcome to our weekly trade setup ( GBPAUD )! - 1 HOUR Bearish break below main sr level. 4 HOUR Price consolidation with possible breakout shortly. DAILY Overall bearish market structure, looking for another break towards previous lows. - FOREX SETUP SELL GBPAUD ENTRY LEVEL @ 1.79170 SL @ 1.79890 TP @ 1.78060 Max Risk: 0.5% - 1%! (Remember to add a few pips to all levels - different Brokers!) Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive. Have a great week everyone! ALAN
Short
by DACapitalTrading
5
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The latest CFTC data for the CAD was surprisingly low with the most recent update, especially after the data included the price action following the BOC’s hawkish tilt. However, what was not reflected in the data has been made up in good measure in the price action we saw this past week as the CAD’s fundamental realities kicked into high gear and pushed CAD higher. For the AUD and NZD, the week does hold some risk events to take note of such as quarterly Employment data for New Zealand as well as a press conference with Governor Orr after the release of the financial stability report. For the AUD, we also have the RBA meeting coming up on Tuesday where market participants are not expecting anything new from the bank. Furthermore, the increased volatility in equities over the past few days means that we do of course want to be mindful of any fluctuations in risk tones as they remain a key external driver for all three the high beta majors. JPY, CHF & USD: What to make of the Dollar on Friday? Firstly, technically speaking the currency was looking a bit stretched to the downside after having almost three straight weeks of selling. Secondly, the recovery in US 10-Year bond yields provided a welcome reprieve for the greenback. Thirdly, the more hawkish comments from FED’s Kaplan on Friday also spurred some upside for the Dollar by talks of tapering discussions and rates lifting off in 2022, but keep in mind that Kaplan is considered as a hawk so even though these comments are positive, they are not as positive when compared to coming from someone like Powell or Clarida for example. After a pretty impressive run higher for the JPY, the move higher in US 10-Year bond yields once again showed the strong inverse correlation between the two assets with the JPY pushing lower this week despite some risk off flows seen in equities (which is usually expected to be positive for safe havens). In the week ahead, focus for both the USD and JPY will remain firmly fixed on bond yields as well as the overall risk sentiment in the market. GBP: GBPUSD took quite the tumble on Friday as the Dollar gained some momentum, and also suffered against other major counterparts as well. The fundamental bullish outlook remains intact, and this week attention will turn to the BOE policy decision coming up on Thursday, as well as the UK’s local elections and Scottish Parliamentary elections. Between the elections and the BOE, the more important event will arguably be the BOE where there is a growing number of participants calling for a potential tapering announcement by the bank this week, but there is a few caveats to this which is important to keep in mind. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. Friday did of course see some overdue correction playing out for the USD which saw a sizeable push lower in the majors across the board. As the fundamental outlook remains unchanged in our view, the Dollar’s movements will be very important for the single currency this week. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 27 April 2021.
by thunderpips
GBPAUD turned at the 0.618 🦐GBPAUD after the bounce over the support area at the 1.77500 moved with an impulse exactly at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracements where the market started an inversion. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break below the support we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
8
GBPAUD facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!Price is facing bearish pressure as it continues to hold below the descending trendline resistance and Ichimoku cloud, in line with our bearish bias. Price could potentially reverse at 1st resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance and descending trendline resistance, and further downside towards 1st support, in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
GBPAUD facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!Prices are facing bearish pressure from horizontal swing high resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards horizontal swing low support which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. If prices push up further, prices might face resistance from horizontal swing high resistance in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extensions. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
1
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The biggest mover among the three high beta majors was the CAD which showed a fairly big increase in net long positioning of +10K. What is even more interesting about this is that it occurred before the BOC meeting on Wednesday, which means this Friday’s data should show yet another big increase in positioning after the hawkish tilt from the BOC. In terms of the AUD, positioning is back in negative territory after a -5K position change, fairly large and most likely due to the exacerbated downside we saw the AUD two weeks ago with the risk off flush in risk assets which hit the AUD much harder than it’s high beta counterparts. This week will be fairly light on the data front for the CAD and NZD with CPI data in focus for the AUD. We would expect the CAD’s upward momentum to continue after the BOC’s meeting but as always external factors such as risk sentiment and oil will be important considerations. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-year bond yields remains one of the key drivers for the USDJPY and a key asset to watch for the next direction of the pair. With the overall global risk outlook as well as the med-term bias for US10Y still tilted higher, we still expect USDJPY to drift higher and would keep a close eye on the price action for additional upside opportunities. As for the Dollar, not much has changed. The med-term bias remains titled to the downside, and the move lower in US10Y has certainly also helped to push the greenback lower. This week we do have the upcoming FOMC meeting as well as Q1 GDP. Even though markets are not expecting a lot from the FOMC there are a few caveats that could create some volatility in the Dollar. GBP: Sterling finally started to show more signs of life this past week, but once again did not manage to take advantage of that strength versus the EUR. The market’s continued expectations for a recovery narrative in the EU has continued to keep the EUR supported, alongside a continued push lower in the USD. The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains unchanged, and with some of the upside positioning being unwound, we would expect the GBP to resume its med-term upside momentum. However, it does seem like markets might be waiting for a catalyst in the short-term to do so. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few sessions as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. The one positive though, and one of which a lot of participants are banking on right now, is that the vaccination roll out is gaining some positive momentum, and if the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could see a faster recovery in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 April 2021.
by thunderpips
4
GBPAUD turned at the 0.618 🦐GBPAUD after the bounce over the support area at the 1.77500 moved with an impulse exactly at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement where the market started an inversion. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
12