Danske Bank Projections For Next 12 MonthsForeign exchange analysts at Danske Bank expect the US Dollar to gain ground during the year ahead, primarily under the influence of a very strong US economic recovery.
After little change on a 1-month view, the Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate ( EUR/USD ) is expected to weaken 0.7% to 1.1800 on a 3-month view. The losses are expected to continue on a 6 and 12-month view with levels of 1.1700 and 1.1500 which represent decline of 1.6% and 3.24% respectively from current levels.
The bank also expects steady USD/JPY gains during the forecast period with a sharp upgrade from February’s forecasts.
A gain of 1.3% to 110.00 is forecast on a 6-month view with a further advance to 112 on a 12-month view, a gain of 3.2% from the current spot level.
Euro Pound Tipped to Retreat Further
Sterling is forecast to maintain a solid tone with overall moves influenced strongly by changes in the EUR/USD rate.
In this context, the Pound US Dollar ( GBP/USD ) exchange rate is projected to reverse the most recent losses and secure a 1.4% advance to 1. 40 on a 1-month view.
Thereafter, the GBP/USD is projected at 1.3900 throughout the 3, 6 and 12-month periods which would represent a 0.7% advance from the current spot rate.
With the single currency generally vulnerable, the Euro Pound rate is forecast to post further losses.
EUR/GBP is forecast at 0.85 on a 1 and 3-month view, a decline of 1.3% from the current spot level.
A further retreat to 0.84 is forecast on a 6-month view with a net loss to 0.83 on a 12-month view, a loss of 3.7% from the current spot level.
Commodity currencies are forecast to decline amid a strong US dollar .
After a slight rebound on a 1-month view, the Australian Dollar-to-US Dollar ( AUD/USD ) exchange rate is forecast to decline 1.0% to 0.7600 on a 3-month view.
A further retreat to 0.73 is forecast on a 12-month view, a decline of 4.9% from the current spot value.
A similar pattern is projected for the New Zealand dollar with losses limited by the slide in spot prices recorded today.
The New Zealand Dollar-to-US Dollar ( NZD/USD ) exchange rate is forecast to recover 0.9% to 0.710 on a 1-month view.
After slight losses on a 3-month view, Danske forecasts a decline to 0.69 on a 6-month view and 0.68 on a 12-month view which equates to losses of 1.9% and 3.3% respectively from current spot levels.
The Norwegian krone and Swedish krona not expected to sustain initial gains.
The Euro-to-Krone rate is forecast to weaken to 10.00 on a 1-month view, a decline of 1.9%. Thereafter, the rate is expected to recover with no net change from spot levels on a 6-month view and a gain of 1.1% to 10.30 on a 12-month view.
The euro is forecast to decline 0.9% to 10.10 on a 1 and 3-month view.
The pair is then forecast to strengthen to 10.2 on a 6-month view and 10.4 on a 12-month view, a gain of 0.1% and 2.1% respectively from current spot levels.
