Gbp-aud
GBPAUD Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for GBPAUD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a buy entry at 1.810870, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1.770140, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 1.852285, where the -61.8% Fibonacci expansion line and 78.6% Fibonacci line is.
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Analysis GBPAUD : 📅 11/16/2022GBPAUD analysis:
According to the price structure, it can be expected to move up to its shadow ceiling and reach its upward targets by breaking the ceiling.
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price:1.75900
sl: 1.72890
tp1: 1.81000
tp2:1.85700
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👤 Alireza hajighasem : @alirezahajighasem
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📅 11/16/2022
InvestMate|GBP/AUD Play for trend continuation💷💷GBP/AUD Play for trend continuation.
💷This time it's time for GBP/AUD.
💷 Looking at the behaviour of the price movement and the continuation of the strong uptrend since the end of September, I am inclined to continue the upward movement.
💷As you can see, there is a strong line of resistance ahead, determined by a cluster of three fibo levels. The first is the 0.5 level of the entire upward wave from the 2013 bottom to the 2015 peak. The second is the 0.382 level from the 2015 peak to the 2016 bottom and the final 3rd level is the 0.5 level of the entire upward wave from the 2016 bottom to the 2020 peak.
💷 I determined the support zone based on the fibo level of 0.618 of the entire upward wave from the 2016 bottom to the 2020 peak.
💷The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the upside towards the resistance zone. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully.
💷 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Gbpaud ready for more downside?Will be more bias to look to short rallies
1.76 a level to watch...
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GBPAUD Sell opportunity below this levelThe GBPAUD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern since the start of 2022 and most recently (October 17 and 28) it hit its top (Lower Highs trend-line). This has turned the short-term price action into a smaller Channel Down (red), which is loosely supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and resembles the pattern of January 28 to February 23.
That eventually broke downwards aggressively to the bottom of the Channel Down (blue) once the Support from the previous Low broke. See how similar the 1D RSI sequences also are. The respective Support (1) on the current set-up is at 1.73500. A candle close below it, eyes Support (2) at 1.65000. As long as Support 1 is intact though, and more importantly the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, another bounce to the top of the long-term Channel Down is possible.
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Joe Gun2Head Trade - Double top on GBPAUDTrade Idea: Selling GBPAUD
Reasoning: Double top on GBPAUD
Entry Level: 1.7643
Take Profit Level: 1.7240
Stop Loss: 1.7830
Risk/Reward: 2.14:1
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Gbpaud could see more down side next weekWe could be seeing pullback if any for us to go on short!
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Hello there!
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Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Buying GBPAUD trend of higher lows.GBPAUD - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.7875 (stop at 1.7805)
Previous support located at 1.8000.
Previous resistance located at 1.8075.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
Our profit targets will be 1.8075 and 1.8100
Resistance: 1.8075 / 1.8100 / 1.8125
Support: 1.8000 / 1.7900 / 1.7875
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
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GBPAUD: Your Trading Plan For Today 🇬🇧🇦🇺
Hey traders,
GBPAUD is approaching a rising trend line on a daily.
The price formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern on that on 1H time frame.
1.7937 - 1.7953 is its horizontal neckline.
To buy with a confirmation, wait for its bullish breakout (hourly candle close above that).
Then, buy aggressively or on a retest.
Targets will be 1.8033 / 1.8075
If the price sets a new low, the setup will be invalid.
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Buying GBPAUD at current levels.GBPAUD - 21h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.7875 (stop at 1.7805)
Previous support located at 1.7900.
Previous resistance located at 1.8000.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Risk/Reward is good to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.8000 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.8075 and 1.8100
Resistance: 1.8000 / 1.8075 / 1.8100
Support: 1.7900 / 1.7875 / 1.7825
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GBP AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH
BASELINE
A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM.
AUD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
BASELINE
Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA surprised this past week with a 25bsp hike, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected (STIR markets priced out close to 75bsp from the terminal rate after the decision). As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, and that means Q3 earnings season needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week. On the data side markets will be eyeing the QQ CPI print as well.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. Any push back from the RBA stressing a smaller hike doesn’t mean a lower terminal rate can be AUD positive.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. Any push back from the RBA stressing a smaller hike doesn’t mean a lower terminal rate can be AUD positive.
BIGGER PICTURE
The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the focus is threefold with earnings season in the US an important risk sentiment driver, secondly, we have quarterly CPI data due on Wednesday and the Federal Budget due on Tuesday.