GBPAUD Buy opportunity and reversal levelsThe GBPAUD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since March 15. At the moment the price is on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the pattern, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D RSI on the 30.000 oversold level.
That should be considered a short-term opportunity by itself towards the top of the Channel. But even from a longer-term perspective, the last time we had those exact same set of parameters take place was during the Channel Down that started on June 2020. As you see that pattern also made a -6% Lower Low from its last High and once the 1D RSI hit the 30.000 oversold level, the price rebounded, gradually above the 1D MA50 and then the 1D MA200 to break above the Channel and eventually make a top on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, as long as the current Channel Down is intact, we expect a new multi-month rally towards the 1.5 Fib which is at 1.85500. Since the bearish trend is that strong, especially today, it would be best to take that trade upon confirmation, after the price closes above the 1D MA50.
Confirmation is needed because in the event of a break below the Channel's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line), we can see the price target the -0.382 Fibonacci extension at 1.613520.
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Gbp-aud
GBPAUD SELL IDEAI think it's pretty clear it's going in a downtrend. I feel like it will go down to the trend line below because it has been tested multiple times before. It overall looks like a triangle pattern as well.
In a lower time frame such as 1 minute you can spot a head and shoulders pattern in current time.
GBPAUD Next Possible MoveTechnical Analysis Chart Update
GBP / AUD ( British Pound / U.S Dollar )
Time Frame - H4
According to Pattern we have FALLING WEDGE
It is at Daily Support Level and completing Corrective Waves " ABC "
If it Breaks the Upper Trend Line then Long Term Buy
We have Buying Divergence in #RSI
Gbpaud at a key level to holdIf GA can't hold 1.69 ...likely more downside to come...
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Short term relief on GBPAUDGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7000 (stop at 1.6930)
Previous support located at 1.7000. Previous resistance located at 1.7100. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 1.7000, resulting in improved risk/reward. A move through 1.7100 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.7200 and 1.7225
Resistance: 1.7100 / 1.7150 / 1.7200
Support: 1.7050 / 1.7000 / 1.6950
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
💵British Pound/Australian Dollar💵 Analyze(Short term)!!!British Pound/Australian Dollar was able to make a Falling wedge & Inverse Head and Shoulder near the Heavy Support zone!!!
British Pound/Australian Dollar can touch at least the upper line of the falling wedge in the next few days.
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between Price and MACD Indicator.
🔅British Pound/Australian Dollar Analyze (GBPAUD) Timeframe 4H⏰
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GBPAUD Strong buy on a monthly basisThe GBPAUD pair has started the week on a strong note, with the current 1W candle being the longest green (so far) since September 21 2020. That shows incredible buying sentiment especially following a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and the 1W RSI being on Higher Lows since April 04 2022. When the price is on Lower Lows, as is the case now, this is a Bullish Divergence potentially indicating a trend shift upwards.
We saw the very same set of parameters align back in the July - December 2020 sequence. After a Support re-test, the price started a strong long-term uptrend above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If you are on this for the long-term, there are few better levels to buy and target the 1.5 Fib at 1.8340.
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Trader thoughts - is a major bear trend in GBPAUD on the cards?Looking at the calendar for the coming week, Aussie wages and employment, and UK CPI jump out as event key risks and potential price catalysts. You can see the expectations in the calendar, but one should consider how they will affect rates pricing and how this impacts the FX markets.
As it stands the market feels on balance that we’ll get a 50bp hike from both the BoE and RBA at their respective September central bank meetings, with the RBA expected to hike 150bp cumulative this year, and the BoE 120bp.
One way we can assess this is by relative expected interest rate differentials, or through short-term bond yield differentials – the 2-year maturity is a good place to start. We can see that the yield advantage to hold Aussie bonds over UK gilts (unhedged) is providing an element of support for the AUD, but a simple overlap between the UK–Aus 2-year bond yield spread and GBPAUD has diverged and GBPAUD trades at a reasonable discount to where the spread resides.
Taking a tactical view - while we know the Aussie labour market has been strong for some time, it feels as though the market will be far more shocked by a poor jobs number than a strong level of job creation. Aussie wages are naturally the backbone of inflationary pressures, so this data point counts, and we know the RBA forecast CPI inflation at 7.75% by Dec-22 – so big numbers here could put that forecast under review. Either way, it’s hard to see a world where we get more than 50bp in Sept from the RBA, but a big number – say 2.9% - 3% - and we’ll see hikes in 2023 lift sharply. Credit Suisse are the outlier call with a 3.2% estimate, which if comes to fruition will light up the AUD.
UK CPI could be quite influential – we know the BoE is forecasting inflation to breach 13%, so a number north of 10% here could get the GBP fired up. A number below 9.5% could bring out good GBP sellers – granted inflation is still at very high levels, but we’re talking nuance, and GBP will fall on a decent miss.
What’s important here is the flow of capital and how traders see things here and now – we see in the daily chart that GBPAUD is breaking down through the 1.7830 to 1.7200 range. Is this significant? Is this the start of a more bearish trend and a new lower range?
It certainly feels like this could be the case. Range breaks naturally get more meaning when the range is mature in duration, as is the case here – to me, this feels significant. Is 1.7000 by next Friday out of the question?
GBPAUD (Corrective Wave Setup)Looks like we are in a corrective wave. The wave before this was an ABC zig zag. We are on the bottom side of the MAC D at a strong support level. I know this looks like a bearish rectangle. However, usually there is a breakout to either the upside or downside towards the end of a corrective wave. In this area price has bounced in a range about 5 times since the initial pullback where letter "C" is. Bearish volume seems to be slowly declining within the last two to three candles. If this isn't an bullish impulsive or zig zag to the upside, I at least want to take profit towards the top of this corrective zone. We have our stop loss at the bottom of the corrective wave range price is creating and if hit, we will take another look for a better entry or just wait until the next sign of a clear trade. The daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, 30 min, and 15 min are matching the same Mac D level and wave pattern. If this wave is impulsive, we will take profit between 123% to 161% of the Fib zone! Let's see how things pan out over time. Not advice!
Is GBP still bearish?GBP/AUD looks bearish on a higher time frame, crossing all the moving averages and we can see a daily bearish engulfing developing, which is a great indicator to confirm selling bias. On the 1-hour TF, a bearish engulfing is forming, and if it closes as it is, we will have a new H1 low. Talking about fundamentals, there is no big impact news today for both currencies, but hedge funds are selling off both currencies, so this trade might be a slow burner, but the setup is definitely looking strong for a short.
GBPAUD: Keep an eye on this up wave!Hey Traders, keep an eye on FX:GBPAUD , we are looking for this up wave.
For us, the structure is ready to move up and print new highs, the corrective structure is completed and market is ready to start an up trend so we will be looking for our buy setups.
P.S. Jumping in without using stop loss or risking big or following anyone blindly leads to big losses, never do that.
If you want us to post more charts, setups and explain more about the next move, make sure to follow us, like and comment.
What we are sharing here is only our point of view on what could be the next move in the market based on our wave analysis concept so this is a directional bias and not signals...
DO NOT FORGET "We Trade Waves" 4 GOLDEN RULES:
1) Do not over-risk
2) Do not over-trade
3) Do not trade without stop loss
4) Never ever add to losing position
Trade with care
We Trade Waves Team
Stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround on GBPAUDGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7253 (stop at 1.7132)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A move lower faces tough support and we remain cautious on downside potential. Bespoke support is located at 1.7250. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 1.7596 and 1.7700
Resistance: 1.7600 / 1.7800 / 1.8200
Support: 1.7250 / 1.6800 / 1.6000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
GBPAUD BUYOver the last week the pair has been trending down in line with making a higher low. With the pound despite inflation data being negative making advances against both dollar and yen we expect to see the price push towards the upside of the this range. We have entered the trade long will hold for the 1.745 to 1.75 area. Good Luck
GBPAUD Neutral within a Rectangle since AprilThe GBPAUD has been trading within a very simple Rectangle pattern since early April, giving traders excellent sideways opportunities. At the moment the price is around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but with the MACD on a Bearish Cross (all of whom led to Lows), it is more likely to see a new selling leg towards the Support of the pattern.
This time, there is the Higher Lows trend-line involved, that has initiated short-term rebounds twice already, so the most appropriate course of action would be to buy just above that trend-line on a tight SL, targeting the Resistance but be quick to reverse to a sell aimed at the Support if a 1D candle closes below the trend-line.
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GBP/AUD Sell Entry 2K pips Chart 1/3Sell Limit entry: 1.75500
Stop loss order: 1.76300
Take profit order: 1.73300
*HEDGE(to minimize losses)-simultaneously OPEN a BUY STOP/LIMT order w/ SAME LOT SIZE as initial trade.
Hedge position levels:
Buy limit/stop: 1.75500
Take Profit: 1.76300 ( T/P = S/L from Initial Trade )
Stop loss: 1.75250 ( S/L = 0-250 pips below Initial Trade Entry level )
*800 pip hedging order.
Potential Gains: 2K-2.2K pips
Potential Loss: 0-250 pips
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.75/1.00
Avg. Holding Period: 5-7 days
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Use the information to assist you with your trading journey. This analysis is just my idea and doesn't guarantee any gains/loss. Leave a comment and follow me to stay up to date on trade opportunities. Safe trading.
When finished will post position opportunities for 1hr and 15min timeframes.
No technical reason for a change of trend on GBPAUDGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.7642 (stop at 1.7717)
Intraday signals are bearish. Rallies continue to attract sellers. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. Trend line resistance is located at 1.7650. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 1.7650 level.
Our profit targets will be 1.7453 and 1.7400
Resistance: 1.7650 / 1.7800 / 1.8120
Support: 1.7450 / 1.6800 / 1.6000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'