GBP AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH
BASELINE
A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM.
AUD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
BASELINE
Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA surprised this past week with a 25bsp hike, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected (STIR markets priced out close to 75bsp from the terminal rate after the decision). As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, and that means Q3 earnings season needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week. On the data side markets will be eyeing the QQ CPI print as well.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. Any push back from the RBA stressing a smaller hike doesn’t mean a lower terminal rate can be AUD positive.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. Any push back from the RBA stressing a smaller hike doesn’t mean a lower terminal rate can be AUD positive.
BIGGER PICTURE
The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the focus is threefold with earnings season in the US an important risk sentiment driver, secondly, we have quarterly CPI data due on Wednesday and the Federal Budget due on Tuesday.
Gbp-aud
GBPAUD Buy opportunity and reversal levelsThe GBPAUD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since March 15. At the moment the price is on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the pattern, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D RSI on the 30.000 oversold level.
That should be considered a short-term opportunity by itself towards the top of the Channel. But even from a longer-term perspective, the last time we had those exact same set of parameters take place was during the Channel Down that started on June 2020. As you see that pattern also made a -6% Lower Low from its last High and once the 1D RSI hit the 30.000 oversold level, the price rebounded, gradually above the 1D MA50 and then the 1D MA200 to break above the Channel and eventually make a top on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, as long as the current Channel Down is intact, we expect a new multi-month rally towards the 1.5 Fib which is at 1.85500. Since the bearish trend is that strong, especially today, it would be best to take that trade upon confirmation, after the price closes above the 1D MA50.
Confirmation is needed because in the event of a break below the Channel's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line), we can see the price target the -0.382 Fibonacci extension at 1.613520.
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GBPAUD SELL IDEAI think it's pretty clear it's going in a downtrend. I feel like it will go down to the trend line below because it has been tested multiple times before. It overall looks like a triangle pattern as well.
In a lower time frame such as 1 minute you can spot a head and shoulders pattern in current time.
GBPAUD Next Possible MoveTechnical Analysis Chart Update
GBP / AUD ( British Pound / U.S Dollar )
Time Frame - H4
According to Pattern we have FALLING WEDGE
It is at Daily Support Level and completing Corrective Waves " ABC "
If it Breaks the Upper Trend Line then Long Term Buy
We have Buying Divergence in #RSI
Gbpaud at a key level to holdIf GA can't hold 1.69 ...likely more downside to come...
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Short term relief on GBPAUDGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7000 (stop at 1.6930)
Previous support located at 1.7000. Previous resistance located at 1.7100. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 1.7000, resulting in improved risk/reward. A move through 1.7100 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.7200 and 1.7225
Resistance: 1.7100 / 1.7150 / 1.7200
Support: 1.7050 / 1.7000 / 1.6950
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
💵British Pound/Australian Dollar💵 Analyze(Short term)!!!British Pound/Australian Dollar was able to make a Falling wedge & Inverse Head and Shoulder near the Heavy Support zone!!!
British Pound/Australian Dollar can touch at least the upper line of the falling wedge in the next few days.
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between Price and MACD Indicator.
🔅British Pound/Australian Dollar Analyze (GBPAUD) Timeframe 4H⏰
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GBPAUD Strong buy on a monthly basisThe GBPAUD pair has started the week on a strong note, with the current 1W candle being the longest green (so far) since September 21 2020. That shows incredible buying sentiment especially following a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and the 1W RSI being on Higher Lows since April 04 2022. When the price is on Lower Lows, as is the case now, this is a Bullish Divergence potentially indicating a trend shift upwards.
We saw the very same set of parameters align back in the July - December 2020 sequence. After a Support re-test, the price started a strong long-term uptrend above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If you are on this for the long-term, there are few better levels to buy and target the 1.5 Fib at 1.8340.
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Trader thoughts - is a major bear trend in GBPAUD on the cards?Looking at the calendar for the coming week, Aussie wages and employment, and UK CPI jump out as event key risks and potential price catalysts. You can see the expectations in the calendar, but one should consider how they will affect rates pricing and how this impacts the FX markets.
As it stands the market feels on balance that we’ll get a 50bp hike from both the BoE and RBA at their respective September central bank meetings, with the RBA expected to hike 150bp cumulative this year, and the BoE 120bp.
One way we can assess this is by relative expected interest rate differentials, or through short-term bond yield differentials – the 2-year maturity is a good place to start. We can see that the yield advantage to hold Aussie bonds over UK gilts (unhedged) is providing an element of support for the AUD, but a simple overlap between the UK–Aus 2-year bond yield spread and GBPAUD has diverged and GBPAUD trades at a reasonable discount to where the spread resides.
Taking a tactical view - while we know the Aussie labour market has been strong for some time, it feels as though the market will be far more shocked by a poor jobs number than a strong level of job creation. Aussie wages are naturally the backbone of inflationary pressures, so this data point counts, and we know the RBA forecast CPI inflation at 7.75% by Dec-22 – so big numbers here could put that forecast under review. Either way, it’s hard to see a world where we get more than 50bp in Sept from the RBA, but a big number – say 2.9% - 3% - and we’ll see hikes in 2023 lift sharply. Credit Suisse are the outlier call with a 3.2% estimate, which if comes to fruition will light up the AUD.
UK CPI could be quite influential – we know the BoE is forecasting inflation to breach 13%, so a number north of 10% here could get the GBP fired up. A number below 9.5% could bring out good GBP sellers – granted inflation is still at very high levels, but we’re talking nuance, and GBP will fall on a decent miss.
What’s important here is the flow of capital and how traders see things here and now – we see in the daily chart that GBPAUD is breaking down through the 1.7830 to 1.7200 range. Is this significant? Is this the start of a more bearish trend and a new lower range?
It certainly feels like this could be the case. Range breaks naturally get more meaning when the range is mature in duration, as is the case here – to me, this feels significant. Is 1.7000 by next Friday out of the question?
GBPAUD (Corrective Wave Setup)Looks like we are in a corrective wave. The wave before this was an ABC zig zag. We are on the bottom side of the MAC D at a strong support level. I know this looks like a bearish rectangle. However, usually there is a breakout to either the upside or downside towards the end of a corrective wave. In this area price has bounced in a range about 5 times since the initial pullback where letter "C" is. Bearish volume seems to be slowly declining within the last two to three candles. If this isn't an bullish impulsive or zig zag to the upside, I at least want to take profit towards the top of this corrective zone. We have our stop loss at the bottom of the corrective wave range price is creating and if hit, we will take another look for a better entry or just wait until the next sign of a clear trade. The daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, 30 min, and 15 min are matching the same Mac D level and wave pattern. If this wave is impulsive, we will take profit between 123% to 161% of the Fib zone! Let's see how things pan out over time. Not advice!
Is GBP still bearish?GBP/AUD looks bearish on a higher time frame, crossing all the moving averages and we can see a daily bearish engulfing developing, which is a great indicator to confirm selling bias. On the 1-hour TF, a bearish engulfing is forming, and if it closes as it is, we will have a new H1 low. Talking about fundamentals, there is no big impact news today for both currencies, but hedge funds are selling off both currencies, so this trade might be a slow burner, but the setup is definitely looking strong for a short.
GBPAUD: Keep an eye on this up wave!Hey Traders, keep an eye on FX:GBPAUD , we are looking for this up wave.
For us, the structure is ready to move up and print new highs, the corrective structure is completed and market is ready to start an up trend so we will be looking for our buy setups.
P.S. Jumping in without using stop loss or risking big or following anyone blindly leads to big losses, never do that.
If you want us to post more charts, setups and explain more about the next move, make sure to follow us, like and comment.
What we are sharing here is only our point of view on what could be the next move in the market based on our wave analysis concept so this is a directional bias and not signals...
DO NOT FORGET "We Trade Waves" 4 GOLDEN RULES:
1) Do not over-risk
2) Do not over-trade
3) Do not trade without stop loss
4) Never ever add to losing position
Trade with care
We Trade Waves Team
Stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround on GBPAUDGBPAUD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.7253 (stop at 1.7132)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A move lower faces tough support and we remain cautious on downside potential. Bespoke support is located at 1.7250. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 1.7596 and 1.7700
Resistance: 1.7600 / 1.7800 / 1.8200
Support: 1.7250 / 1.6800 / 1.6000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
GBPAUD BUYOver the last week the pair has been trending down in line with making a higher low. With the pound despite inflation data being negative making advances against both dollar and yen we expect to see the price push towards the upside of the this range. We have entered the trade long will hold for the 1.745 to 1.75 area. Good Luck
GBPAUD Neutral within a Rectangle since AprilThe GBPAUD has been trading within a very simple Rectangle pattern since early April, giving traders excellent sideways opportunities. At the moment the price is around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but with the MACD on a Bearish Cross (all of whom led to Lows), it is more likely to see a new selling leg towards the Support of the pattern.
This time, there is the Higher Lows trend-line involved, that has initiated short-term rebounds twice already, so the most appropriate course of action would be to buy just above that trend-line on a tight SL, targeting the Resistance but be quick to reverse to a sell aimed at the Support if a 1D candle closes below the trend-line.
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GBP/AUD Sell Entry 2K pips Chart 1/3Sell Limit entry: 1.75500
Stop loss order: 1.76300
Take profit order: 1.73300
*HEDGE(to minimize losses)-simultaneously OPEN a BUY STOP/LIMT order w/ SAME LOT SIZE as initial trade.
Hedge position levels:
Buy limit/stop: 1.75500
Take Profit: 1.76300 ( T/P = S/L from Initial Trade )
Stop loss: 1.75250 ( S/L = 0-250 pips below Initial Trade Entry level )
*800 pip hedging order.
Potential Gains: 2K-2.2K pips
Potential Loss: 0-250 pips
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.75/1.00
Avg. Holding Period: 5-7 days
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When finished will post position opportunities for 1hr and 15min timeframes.