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Gbp-cad

GBP/CAD:SELL From Breakout Dynamic Support for A SHORT SetupGBP/CAD in the last session compress the price inside a bullish channel but yesterday the price Broker the dynamic support of this pattern and seems today ready to drop down, in the direction of the main trend. The scenario looks like a local double top where the divergences on the stochastic can make our Idea stronger. The Alternative scenario will happen if the price rebounds on this dynamic support after a fake breakout and raise until the 1.5700 value.
Short
by FOREXN1
13
Gbpcad,should be on the upside...This pair should be continuing on the up side as mentioned previously if there's no changes on lower timeframe... **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI . The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with its first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. However, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp this upcoming week. With recent data we think the bank is close to taking a pause, but there is a risk that the bank doubles down this upcoming week and increasing the terminal rate which could provide short-term support for the CAD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC , but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. The focus for the CAD will be firmly fixed on the BoC policy decision, to see what the bank has to say about their future path for rates. Whether they talk up the terminal rate or confirm suspicions that they could be nearing a pause.
by thunderpips
3
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI . The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with its first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. However, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp this upcoming week. With recent data we think the bank is close to taking a pause, but there is a risk that the bank doubles down this upcoming week and increasing the terminal rate which could provide short-term support for the CAD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC , but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. The focus for the CAD will be firmly fixed on the BoC policy decision, to see what the bank has to say about their future path for rates. Whether they talk up the terminal rate or confirm suspicions that they could be nearing a pause.
by thunderpips
10
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI. The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with its first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. However, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp this upcoming week. With recent data we think the bank is close to taking a pause, but there is a risk that the bank doubles down this upcoming week and increasing the terminal rate which could provide short-term support for the CAD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. The focus for the CAD will be firmly fixed on the BoC policy decision, to see what the bank has to say about their future path for rates. Whether they talk up the terminal rate or confirm suspicions that they could be nearing a pause.
by thunderpips
GBPCAD The RSI hasn't been this oversold since 1985!------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The GBPCAD pair has been on a strong yearly decline, especially as of late. The 1M (monthly) RSI is currently at 20.87, the lowest it has been since January 1985. That is a good enough reason of its own to buy the pair. There are striking resemblances with the early 2000s fractal. A rebound on the Channel Down pattern's bottom can push the price all the way to its top and the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Be ready to offset some risk though to complete a -24.85% decline, if the Channel's bottom breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
GBPCAD looking up 🦐GBPCAD after. a long downtrend seems to find a short term bottom. The price tested twice the support and is now trading below a confluence between a descending trendline and a minor resistance. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a potential break of the resistance area and in that case i will be looking for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
4
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The negative outlook for the UK economy has been a key source of Pound weakness. Stagflation risks remain high with CPI > 10% and recession expected in 4Q22 (lasting 5 quarters). It has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE rate hikes. However, the new PM announced a much bigger than expected fiscal plan which will keep energy prices capped for 2 years for households and will also offer support for businesses. According to some estimates, that should keep inflation capped (as the main driver has been energy), and also means that the recession could be less severe than previously thought. Thus, even though the bias for the GBP remains bearish as a recession still seems likely, the fiscal news is a positive development for Sterling on balance, and with a lot of bad news already priced in we are expecting some reprieve for Sterling with asymmetric risk to incoming data (good news expected to have a bigger upside impact compared to the impact from bad news). That also means this week’s upcoming BoE meeting will be very interesting. After the dismal economic outlook delivered in the Aug MPR and the recent policy hearings, there could be some upside risk for GBP if the bank’s verdict of the new PM’s fiscal plan means lower price pressures and a less severe recession outlook. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any further support measures announced by the new PM should continue to ease stagflation fears. Given STIR pricing, a 50bsp could trigger initial GBP downside, but we could see upside if the bank sounds slightly more optimistic about the economy with the proposed fiscal plan. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any potential walk back from the new PM on the plans laid out last week would increase stagflation fears once again. Given STIR pricing, a 50bsp could trigger initial downside, but we could see further downside if the bank explains the medterm debt risk of the new fiscal plan outweighs the benefits. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish , especially after the BoE’s recent forecasts of a 5-quarter recession in the UK. Furthermore, given the risks to growth, there is growing speculation that the BoE might not be too far away from pausing their current hiking cycle. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some pressure could see some reprieve. Since Sterling is trading at fresh new cycle lows, the risk to reward for chasing it lower looks unattractive, and we could see asymmetric reactions skewed to the upside on positive data & news. Furthermore, we think the new PM’s proposed fiscal plan has not received the bullish attention it deserves. What the BoE have to say about the proposed fiscal spending and how it’s likely to impact growth and inflation will be important this week. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. Despite markets still pricing in a favourable growth outlook for Canada, the recent jobs report saw the third consecutive contraction in employment, which is something the bank should start to take notice of. The market’s reaction after the 75bsp was fairly muted as the bank didn’t provide any important additional info in their statement that markets didn’t already know. With their frontloading, the bank is now just one 50bsp or two 25bsp hikes away from hitting terminal rate expectations, which means any upside from policy differentials should begin to fade. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. After the recent jobs report miss, a much bigger than expected miss in CPI could offer some great shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. An upside surprise in CPI is unlikely to change the bigger picture but could ease some of the post-job report downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank just 50bsp away from terminal rate expectations, it won’t take much to surprise on the dovish side, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. A big enough CPI miss could see markets pricing in a sooner pause from the BoC, especially after the recent jobs report. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, and the BoC close to terminal, and the recent miss in the jobs data, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. Incoming CPI data could give the markets an excuse to start contemplating a sooner pause by the bank since they are very close to terminal rate expectations.
by thunderpips
3
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The negative outlook for the UK economy has been a key source of the Pound’s downside. Stagflation risks are high with CPI > 10% and recession expected in 4Q22 (lasting 5 quarters). It has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE rate hikes. With the energy cap expected to rise again in October 2022 and April 2023, the new PM hit the ground running by announcing a much bigger than expected fiscal plan which will keep energy prices capped for 2 years for households and will also offer support for businesses. According to preliminary research, this means inflation most likely already peaked in the UK (as the main driver has been energy), and also means that the expected hit to the economy should be less severe than previously thought. Thus, even though the bias for the GBP remains bearish as a recession still seems likely, the fiscal news is a positive development for Sterling on balance, and with a lot of bad news already priced in we are expecting some reprieve for Sterling with asymmetric risk to incoming data (good news expected to have a bigger upside impact compared to the impact from bad news). POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any further support measures announced by the new PM should continue to ease stagflation fears. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any major de-escalation can see some upside for Sterling. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any potential walk back from the new PM on the planslaid out last week would increase stagflation fears once again. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish , especially after the BoE’s recent forecasts of a 5-quarter recession in the UK. Furthermore, given the risks to growth, there is growing speculation that the BoE might not be too far away from pausing their current hiking cycle. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some pressure could see some reprieve. Since Sterling is trading at fresh new cycle lows, the risk to reward for chasing it lower looks unattractive, and we could see asymmetric reactions skewed to the upside on positive data & news. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a strangely favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. The market’s reaction after the 75bsp was fairly muted as the bank didn’t provide any important additional info in their statement that markets didn’t already know. With their frontloading, the bank is now just one 50bsp or two 25bsp hikes away from hitting terminal rate expectations, which means any upside from policy differentials should being to fade. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank just 50bsp away from terminal rate expectations, it won’t take much to surprise on the dovish side, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. With the bank now very close to terminal rate expectations, markets will want to know whether the bank thinks the terminal rate currently priced is adequate or not, so watching for any BoC comments on this point will be important.
by thunderpips
1
GBPCAD looking up 🦐GBPCAD after. a long downtrend seems to find a short term bottom. The price tested twice the support and is now trading below a confluence between a descending trendline and a minor resistance. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a potential break of the resistance area and in that case i will be looking for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
GBPCAD on a double bottom retracement 🦐GBPCAD after. a long downtrend seems to find a short term bottom. The price tested twice the support and is now trading below a confluence between a descending trendline and a minor resistance. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a potential break of the resistance area and in that case i will be looking for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
💵British Pound/Canadian Dollar 💵 Analyze!!!British Pound/Canadian Dollar is running in the Heavy Support zone and near the lower line of descending channel. I expect the British Pound/Canadian Dollar to go up to the middle line of the descending channel. It should be noted that this growth will be temporary. 🔅British Pound/Canadian Dollar (GBPCAD) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
10
GBPCAD: Important Key Level Ahead 🇬🇧🇨🇦 Here on GBPCAD we have a perfect example of the importance of higher time frame analysis: The pair broke and closed below a key daily structure support this week. Even though, it is a strong bearish clue, I spotted a key monthly support lying slightly below the broken area. Watching how the price reacted to that level in the past, I would suggest patiently waiting for now. If the price breaks the underlined green level and closes below that on a monthly, then a further decline will be expected. And while the price remains above that, I will expect a pullback! Be very careful! ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
7
GBPCAD a turn at the 0.618 🦐GBPCAD on the 4h charthas retraced at the 0.618 fibonacci level. The price found a support over that area and an inversion can be expected. How can I approach this scenario? I will wait for a possible break above the structure and in that case I will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
GBPCAD preparing a strong rally to the 1D MA200The GBPCAD pair broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) this week for the first time since February 24 and is consolidating. This is the first sign that the trend might be changing from long-term bearish to bullish. This is evident on the 1D RSI which has been on Higher Lows for months. The very same pattern was last seen in Q3/ Q4 2021. After the price broke above the 1D MA50 on November 26 2021 and got rejected, it posted an end-pattern rally to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As a result we are bullish long-term on this pair, targeting at least the 1D MA200. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
1