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GBP-CHF

GBPCHF is on a bearish momentum! | 12 Nov 2021Price is abiding by our bearish trendline . We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 1.23477 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 1.22959 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and representing their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
3
GBPCHF is on a bearish momentum! | 12 Nov 2021Price is abiding by our bearish trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 1.23477 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 1.22959 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and representing their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
GBPCHF short moving⤵️👍We are using our trend following EDGE strategy for this GBPCHF trade. Entry details are shown on the chart. Trade has been live since 17:00 UK time. Working the H1 time frame here and we're only looking for TP3. As always the report box at foot of the idea shows the stats for this strategy. In that box every trade is logged and can be viewed by clicking the tabs in the report box. You as the viewer of this idea can also do that so go ahead and have a play. Last trade was also covered in an idea yeasterday. Great scalping strategy this one. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren.
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
1
GBPCHF short valid 👇✅It's clearly CHF day as this is my third idea on a CHF pair! Using the POW reversal script for this strategy. Trade details for current trade are shown on the chart. Trade has been live since 11:45 UK time and we are using our POW reversal script. We are working the 15M time frame on this strategy. We're looking for the green line which is take profit target. Little red short arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss. Been a good run over the last few days on this strategy as you will see from the previous trades on the chart. Lets see if it can end the week on a high. As always trade history can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
GBPCHF Long 300 Pips!Hello Traders, Here we have a GBPCHF long trade idea. If you like this idea please show your support! GBP This trade idea is based off the fact that the Pound (GBP) is reaching a weekly low since the end of September 2021. We are expecting some strength as this is approaching a structure level & this will give us a double bottom reversal pattern indicating we are expecting a possible reversal which we do not want to miss! This GBP weakness can be seen across other GBP pairs, for example GBPUSD below : In the chart above you can see a very long wick in the candle indicating less seller and more buyers in the market, this is key indication of a potential reversal as we can see a lot of weakness in the trend and price is struggling to push down any further. This may be another pair you want to consider taking a look at as this also has a very similar potential to GBPCHF. CHF Swiss Franc (CHF) weakness can be seen as price is hitting resistance in its bull run and we can see much weakness across many CHF pairs, for example my previous USDCHF trade idea I shared last week has made progression, but the price as returned to the entry point due to slight CHF strength however this gives us this opportunity to enter in this other pair. If you want to improve your trading, do not hesitate to send me a message! Please trade with caution and make sure you set your stop losses! Happy Trading 😁 Be sure to check out my other ideas below!
Long
by Pips-Collector
9
GBPCHF short-term bullish bounce | 3rd Nov 2021 Price is reacting in a descending channel, signifying an overall bearish trend. However, we can expect price to make a short-term bullish bounce from the pivot level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement. My short term bullish bounce is further supported by the MACD indicator where the MACD line cross above the signal line and it is below the zero 0 indicating oversold. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
GBPCHFif you take a look on bigger scale for this whole year. you will see how perfect Fibonacci levels have formed. extend till April. and then consolidating in a range which defines 0.786 and 0.618 levels. As we know the market cycles. its on a stage 3. it is going to fall. it is visible this pair is falling down 0.618 level. Once you see breaking trendline with ;strong bearish candle you might see an entry there. Targets could be 0.382 level. i am thinking these target can be achieved by late December or early Jan. Retracements period can be set as per your trading style. It can be good swings and positional. Do Due diligence.
by takkarsagar2007
GBPCHF is consolidating in a triangle! | 29th OctPrice has been consolidating in a triangle. We see a potential buy entry 1.25544 in line with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take profit at 1.27144 in line with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
2
GBPCHF is consolidating in a triangle! | 29th OctPrice has been consolidating in a triangle. We see a potential buy entry 1.25544 in line with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take profit at 1.27144 in line with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
GBP/CHF swingtrade after retest break of structureHello Traders, FOLLOW ME FOR UPDATES ABOUT DAYTRADES AND SWINGTRADES! So, sunday, the day of preperation for the beautifull monday-morning to start agian, trading-week. Looking at a pair that had some very interesting price-action going on, ready for the move down. After an impulsive phase up we saw a clean correction holding the counter-trendline. After the break of the counter-trendline AND the structure we now wait for the retest of structure. Indicators showing us that we are bearish. Bear-trap has been executed so it looks safe to enter. Follow me for updates in swing and daytrading. Have a good week!
Short
by FXT_TL
GBPCHF approaching pivot, potential for rise | 21st OctPrice is trading in an ascending trend line and is approaching our buy entry of 1.26599 which is also 38.2% retracement level. Price can then potentially rise to the take profit level of 1.27605 which is also the graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is currently trading above. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
2
GBPCHF approaching pivot, potential for rise | 21st OctPrice is trading in an ascending trend line and is approaching our buy entry of 1.26599 which is also 38.2% retracement level. Price can then potentially rise to the take profit level of 1.27605 which is also the graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is currently trading above. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
GBPCHF facing bullish pressure, potential for more upside!Price is above 1st support at 1.27205 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 23.6% Fibonacci extension. It could potentially bullish from 1st support at 1.2705 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 23.6% Fibonacci extension to 1st resistance at 1.28183 in line with Horizontal swing high and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by how Price is holding above the EMA and MACD is shown to be above the 0 line. Otherwise price may continue to bearish to 2nd support at 1.26676 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risk.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
1
GBPCHF bullish pressure | 19th Oct 2021 We can expect price to bounce up from the pivot level in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the RSI abiding to the ascending trendline. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
GBPCHF potential bullish breakout! | 15th OctPrice has been consolidating in a triangle. We see the potential of a bullish breakout from our target entry/pivot at 1.26207 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and graphical overlap towards our target take profit at 1.26586 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
GBP CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However, it’s important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that they expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don’t come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened, the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain. A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from August which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates in Q1, we do think the over optimistic moves in money markets poses short-term headwinds. 2. The country’s economic developments The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers provided a favourable environment for Sterling and the strength of the economic recovery has meant solid growth differentials favouring GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably priced, and the recent slowdown in activity data that suggests peak growth has been reached could mean an uphill push for GBP to see the same size of outperformance we saw earlier. With our above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to downside surprises than was the case a few months ago. Even though the current fuel challenges should not be enough to derail the economic recovery, the NatGas shortage is much more serious and if not resolved quickly could add to some additional price pressures which in the past few sessions have seen even more aggressive pricing from money markets for additional tightening. 3. Political Developments Even though a Brexit deal was reached at the end of last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge right now it seems like a never ending can kicking could see these issues drag on for a long time. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -21982 with a net non-commercial position of -20018. Sterling have seen a very impressive rebound following last week’s sell off. Right now, large speculators and leveraged funds are at odds with each other, with large speculators holding a net-short and leveraged funds still sitting on the largest net-long among the majors. Markets reacted positively to new Chief Economist Pill’s comments about inflation , which yet again sparked additional downside in SONIA futures , with money markets pricing in a 10-basis point hike in the next two months and more than 70 basis points of tightening in 2022. So, even though this amount of tightening should be positive for a currency, the reasons why the markets are pricing in the steeper rate path is out of fear of inflation and not due to a more positive economic outlook, which as we highlighted above does pose headwinds for the Pound in the weeks ahead. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone improved considerably after the pandemic as a result of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term . 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF saw some surprisingly strength from June. This divergence from the fundamental outlook didn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -4092 with a net non-commercial position of -15679. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF is back inside net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term , any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term and is always something to keep in mind.
by thunderpips
2
GBP CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However, it’s important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that they expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don’t come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened, the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain. A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from August which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates in Q1, we do think the over optimistic moves in money markets poses short-term headwinds. 2. The country’s economic developments The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers provided a favourable environment for Sterling and the strength of the economic recovery has meant solid growth differentials favouring GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably priced, and the recent slowdown in activity data that suggests peak growth has been reached could mean an uphill push for GBP to see the same size of outperformance we saw earlier. With our above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to downside surprises than was the case a few months ago. Even though the current fuel challenges should not be enough to derail the economic recovery, the NatGas shortage is much more serious and if not resolved quickly could add to some additional price pressures which in the past few sessions have seen even more aggressive pricing from money markets for additional tightening. 3. Political Developments Even though a Brexit deal was reached at the end of last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge right now it seems like a never ending can kicking could see these issues drag on for a long time. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2182 with a net non-commercial position of +1964. The downside in the Pound this week was something else, slicing through key technical levels on majority of the GBP crosses. Even though the over-aggressive money markets and subsequent moves in SONIA futures we think can explain some of the angst, there is also a far less complicated reason for the downside. Even though large speculators were neutral on Sterling, leveraged funds had a very sizable net-long built up in Sterling in a very short space of time, which meant when key technical levels were breached it was a very fast run to the exists and fast money scrambled to get out of dodge. With the reprieve in Sterling only starting Thursday and CFTC cut off on Tuesday, we would expect to see a sizeable unwind of those leveraged funds longs. Furthermore, after the run lower, we are actively looking to add back to GBP on the long side. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone improved considerably after the pandemic as a result of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term . 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF saw some surprisingly strength from June. This divergence from the fundamental outlook didn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -2370 with a net non-commercial position of -11587. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF is back inside net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term , any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term.
by thunderpips
1
Wait for Key level breakout and sell signal with GBPCHFH2 time frame. Structure: The uptrend was broken when the down move broke the Key level at 1.26600. There is now a smaller uptrend forming within the range of the previous down move and a new key level appears at 1.26200. Wait for the price to break this Key level and have a retest move, then look for selling opportunities with price targets of 1.25600 and 1.24800. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Short
by tradafx
GBP CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However, it’s important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that they expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don’t come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened, the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain. A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from August which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates in Q1, we do think the over optimistic moves in money markets poses short-term headwinds. 2. The country’s economic developments The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers & provided a favourable environment for Sterling and the strength of the economic recovery and GDP upgrades from the BOE and IMF meant growth differentials favoured GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably priced, and the recent slowdown in activity data that suggests peak growth has been reached could mean an uphill push for GBP to see the same size of outperformance we saw earlier. With our above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to downside surprises than was the case a few months ago. 3. Political Developments Even though a Brexit deal was reached at the end of last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge right now it seems like a never ending can kicking could see these issues drag on for a long time. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -5008 with a net non-commercial position of -218. The Pound pushed higher after last week’s FOMC failed to send jitters across risk assets and after the market got very optimistic about higher interest rates in the UK next year. However, as we noted above, we are cautious of recent money market pricing. Another factor to consider in the week ahead is the flurry of reports over the weekend of the current energy hick ups facing the UK, with some media outlets reporting massive fuel shortages which has sparked a frenzy of panic buying and possibly creating a much bigger issue than there was originally. Even though the government has assured that there is enough fuel and currently no crisis, we do want to keep the risks of some possible negative sentiment for GBP in line with this in mind. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone improved considerably after the pandemic as a result of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term . 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF saw some surprisingly strength from June. This divergence from the fundamental outlook didn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3339 with a net non-commercial position of -9217. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF is back inside net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term , any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term.
by thunderpips
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