Bearish drop?GBP/JPY is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 192.49
1st Support: 190.55
1st Resistance: 193.70
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Gbp-jpy
GBPJPY: Imminent bullish breakout. Long term target 208.000GBPJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.276, MACD = -0.320, ADX = 25.216) as it is consolidating around its 1D MA50. The Channel Up since the August 5th 2024 Low as well as its RSI structure, draws comparisons with the 2023 Channel Up, which after one last pullback, it rebounded to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and beyond. We're turning bullish (TP = 208.000).
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Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?GBP/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 194.66
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 197.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 191.77
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bearish reversal?GBP/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 192.22
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 193.80
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 190.37
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBP/JPY Bearish Channel (20.01.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. FX:GBPJPY
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 188.64
2nd Support – 188.00
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GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to weaken?The GBPJPY currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the corrective movement continues towards the supply zone, we can sell with a suitable risk reward.
According to the latest Bloomberg survey, the UK government faces significant challenges in restoring investor confidence, as the pound and British bonds continue their downward trend. Following a decline in UK markets early in 2025 due to rising concerns over debt and inflation, about 51% of the 250 participants in last week’s survey predicted the pound would fall to between $1.15 and $1.20 by the end of June. This would mark the currency’s weakest level in over two years.
Meanwhile, 45% of participants anticipate greater volatility in the pound, with 10-year UK bond yields expected to rise above 5% this year.Taylor, a member of the Bank of England, emphasized the importance of staying vigilant against potential risks. He suggested that recent data indicate a worsening economic outlook and that interest rates should be reduced promptly to avoid further challenges.
In Japan, households expect prices to rise in the coming year. The percentage of households with such expectations increased slightly from 85.6% in the previous survey to 85.7%. However, five-year inflation expectations have seen a slight decline. According to the Bank of Japan, average annual inflation expectations among households stand at 11.5%, based on the latest survey.
Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week. The firm also remains optimistic about the yen, expecting any action by the Bank of Japan in January to support the currency. Market pricing suggests that an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is almost certain.
According to Bloomberg, Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, will evaluate the need for a rate hike on Friday. Expectations for an interest rate increase have grown, provided that potential shocks from the early days of Trump’s presidency do not materialize.
While other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are focused on rate cuts, the Bank of Japan is moving in the opposite direction, aiming for a gradual return to conventional monetary policies.
The Bank of Japan is set to announce its first interest rate decision of 2025 on Friday. During its final meeting in 2024, the bank decided to keep rates unchanged. Governor Ueda stated that more data is needed to justify a rate hike, highlighting concerns about wages and uncertainties surrounding Trump’s economic policies.
Since then, new data has shown a significant rise in November inflation, with December inflation pressures also intensifying. Wages also grew in November. Additionally, a summary of opinions from the December meeting indicates that a rate hike could occur sooner than investors anticipate.
Given these developments and recent remarks from BoJ officials, investors assign an 80% probability to a 0.25% rate hike. However, the Bank of Japan has a long history of disappointing expectations for rate increases. If Trump adopts an aggressive stance on tariffs in his upcoming speech, the BoJ may once again refrain from raising rates, potentially leading to a decline in the yen.
If the Bank of Japan does raise interest rates, the yen is likely to strengthen, but the associated risks are asymmetrical. The negative impact of refraining from a hike could outweigh the positive effect of an increase. Nonetheless, a further decline in the yen might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene to support the currency.
GBPJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring GBPJPY for a selling opportunity around 190.800 zone, GBPJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 190.800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBGJPYHey Traders! Let’s Dive Into GBP/JPY 🔍
Here’s a breakdown of an exciting setup I’m watching closely on GBP/JPY (Daily timeframe). It’s shaping up to be a textbook bearish continuation
let me walk you through the key details:
Bearish Flag Pattern
The chart shows a classic bearish flag in action. After a strong sell-off (the flagpole), the price has been consolidating within an upward-sloping channel, forming the "flag." This is often a pause before the next leg down, and the measured move suggests we could see significant downside if the flag breaks.
Entry & Confirmation
Patience is key here! I’m looking to enter at 188.000, but only after confirmation. Ideally, I want to see price rejection at the bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) or clear signs of selling pressure at this level. No confirmation, no trade—that’s how I roll. 😉
Stop Loss (SL)
The stop loss is placed just above the flag's upper boundary. If price breaks above, it invalidates the pattern and signals that the bears may have lost control. This small risk is worth taking for the potential reward ahead.
Targets to Watch
Here’s where it gets exciting:
First target: 179.000 – A key intermediate support level.
Final target: 160.000 – A major historical support zone and the projected move from the flagpole.
If the breakdown plays out as expected, this could be a fantastic risk-to-reward setup. 🎯
Key Levels to Keep in Mind
Resistance at 199.000: The ceiling holding back upward momentum.
Support at 188.000 & 179.000: Zones where price may react before heading lower.
My Take
This setup screams bearish momentum, but as always, I’m waiting for confirmation before pulling the trigger. The bearish flag, coupled with a clean breakdown at the FVG, could pave the way for a strong move south. Discipline and proper risk management are non-negotiable—don’t chase it! 🚨
What’s your view on GBP/JPY? Let me know in the comments! 💬
Trade safe,
RAY
Feel free to tweak this as needed!
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE
GBPJPY Buy signal on a 5-month bottom.The GBPJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the August 05 2024 bottom and yesterday it made a Higher Low at the bottom of the pattern. This has been a buy opportunity 2/2 times and based on the similarities with the September 11 2024 Low, we can expect the new Bullish Leg to start and peak on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is 204.000.
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Bearish drop?GBP/JPY is rising towards the pivot which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 192.49
1st Support: 190.20
1st Resistance: 193.37
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPJPY Trade Idea 2The last 2 weeks(19th to now.
We had gains come back down.
In the Monthly tf, it became a wick.
Either way, I got my weekly/Daily take profit levels.
On the 4HR, I'm looking for entry levels to sell( I will still need further break of structure to the downside.
On the 1HR, I'm looking to take some buys to my daily target level of 197.526 or my 4HR target level of 196.060. BUT first I I would need further break of structure to the upside.
To increase my Win rate I have to stick to my rules.
GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to grow?!The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If we continue to move towards the supply zone, we can sell with an appropriate risk reward. The downward correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position.
The mortgage approval statistics for the UK in November indicate that the number of approved mortgages has reached 65.7K, which is below the forecast of 68.7K and the previous figure of 68.3K. Additionally, net consumer credit dropped to £0.9 billion, falling short of the £1.2 billion estimate. Net mortgage lending also declined to £2.5 billion, below the forecast of £3.2 billion and the previous figure of £3.4 billion. The annual consumer credit rate also fell, reaching 6.6%.
On Sunday, Elon Musk stated that Nigel Farage should step down from leading the UK’s right-wing Reform Party. Musk wrote on his social platform, X, “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage lacks the necessary ability.”
This statement came despite Musk having appeared to support Farage previously, even taking a photo with him last month. Media outlets had speculated that Musk, a close ally of Donald Trump, the U.S.President-elect, might provide significant financial support to the Reform Party to challenge the UK’s Labour and Conservative parties.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has expressed a bearish outlook on the British pound, pointing to potential rate cuts by the Bank of England as a key factor. The group stated that market pricing for the Bank of England’s rate reductions this year is overly conservative. They anticipate that the Bank of England will implement further cuts, which would likely weaken the pound against other currencies, particularly non-dollar ones. Additionally, with the U.S. dollar showing further signs of weakening, the pound is expected to remain under pressure.
The financial group also highlighted rising energy prices as a vulnerability for the UK, particularly in light of Ukraine’s refusal to extend its natural gas transit agreement with Russia to Western Europe. The UK’s limited storage capacity exacerbates its susceptibility to market price fluctuations, increasing concerns about a rise in service costs this year. Higher energy prices are expected to negatively impact consumer spending, weaken business confidence, and drive up overall costs.
Meanwhile, a recent private survey revealed that Japan’s service sector activity expanded for the second consecutive month in December, driven by strong demand and increased trade activity. According to the survey conducted by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the final services PMI rose from 50.5 in November to 50.9 in December. While this was lower than the preliminary estimate of 51.4, it remained above the 50.0 threshold for the second consecutive month, signaling economic expansion.
The Bank of Japan Governor, Mr. Ueda, recently stated:
• There is a possibility of raising interest rates if the economic recovery continues.
• The timing of adjustments will depend on economic conditions and inflation trends.
• He hopes for balanced growth in wages and prices.
• Wage increases remain a critical factor.
• The cycle of rising wages, economic recovery, and increased consumption gradually reinforced each other throughout the past year.
GBPJPY - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: (Daily Time-frame)
While the price is below the resistance 199.79, resumption of downtrend is expected.
Technical analysis:
The descending flag taking shape suggests we will soon see another leg lower.
Trading suggestion:
Price rejected from Trend Hunter Sell Zone (198.42 to 199.79). We are going to open 8 sell trade based on these Take Profits:
Take Profits:
196.00
193.51
191.88
189.47
186.23
182.78
178.41
Short Term forecast: (H4 Time-frame)
The Uptrend is broken, and the price is in an impulse wave.
Correction wave toward the Sell Zone.
Another Downward Impulse wave toward Lower TPs.
SL: Above 199.79
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Potential bullish rise?GBP/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 195.87
1st Support: 194.72
1st Resistance: 198.66
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPJPY Is Nearing Smaller Time Frames TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPJPY for a buying opportunity around 197.100 zone, GBPJPY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 197.100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistance?GBP/JPY is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 197.37
1st Support: 194.65
1st Resistance: 198.96
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards overlap support?GBP/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 194.73
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 193.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 198.45
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.