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Gbp-jpy

GBPJPY Sell opportunityThe GBPJPY pair has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S), which is typically a technical Bearish Reversal formation. The Double Top initiated the first wave down, where all candles got contained above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) causing a 0.5 Fib rebound. Now the formation may see the second wave down. If the Support Zone breaks, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test. A 1D candle close below should be enough to finally test the Higher Lows trend-line for the first time since March 08. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
6
GBPJPY VIP SHORT! OVER 1300 PIPS!GBPJPY SHORT Why are we entering? - Expecting JPY strength - We are waiting for rejection from our structure level and fibonacci What is our confirmation? - Break of WFB trendline and 1HR EMA - Rejection from structure and fibonacci Entry - Safe Entry: Break of WFB trendline & 1HR EMA with Rejection from structure and fibonacci - RISK Entry: Rejection from structure and fibonacci - RISK Entry 2: Early break of WFB trendline / 1HR EMA Once entered, where will our Stoploss be? - Above structure & fibonacci / previous high (166.4) 30 pips - Move SL to BE after running 30 pips Where do we take profits? - Secure profit multiple times along the way (30 pips, 60 pips, 120 pips, 200 pips) - First TP previous low :161.1 (500pips) - Final TP: Structure & ascending channel 152.5 (1360 pips)
Short
by Pips-Collector
2
GBPJPY a short term outlook 🦐GBPJPY on the 4h chart is trading at the recent highs. The price after a long bullish impulse might be looking for a retest of the support area at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and search for a break of the support. In that case, i ll be looking for the Plancton's strategy to set a nice short order. ----- Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4
GBP JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH Inflation and growth have been the biggest negative drivers for Sterling so far this year. Due to a very bleak outlook for growth and accompanied by inflation that is close to 5 times the BoE’s target, the real risks of stagflation have weighed on the GBP. As a result of the growing stagflation risks, it has also forced the BoE’s hand to more dovish at every meeting since February, with the previous one stopping just shy of forecasting a possible recession for the economy going into 2023. At this stage, the BoE is hiking rates reluctantly, not because the economy is doing great, but because of unacceptably high levels of inflation. The deteriorating economic outlook has also caused markets to doubt whether the bank will be able to deliver to the number of hikes that STIR has already priced in, with some participants expecting the bank to hike once or twice more and then pause. POSSIBLE HAWKISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with the probability of a recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, any materially positive surprises in growth data could trigger bullish reactions for Sterling. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation prints could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency. The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Thus, any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (like subsidies for energy or potential tax cuts) could trigger upside for Sterling. POSSIBLE DOVISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH The Yen has fallen off the proverbial cliff over the past few months, driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, compared to the BoJ which has stubbornly kept their yields capped through continued Yield Curve Control. The inverse correlation to US10Y is usually important but has taken centre stage in recent months as the biggest driver of the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, the inflows has been more limited compared to other cycles. The main reason for that is that the bank’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated and expected to continue to deteriorate due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities, so the continued rise in oil prices has added to the downside and also eroded some of the classic safe haven appeal. Monetary policy is the other negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, and despite the market’s relentless attempts at testing the JGB 10-year yield cap at 0.25%, the bank has stayed stubbornly dovish. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid and violent depreciation in the JPY has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act and actually do something, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE HAWKISH SURPRISES Any catalysts that trigger meaningful downside in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US CPI, faster deceleration in US growth) or triggers meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Monetary policy is stubbornly dovish. Any catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ would drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger a big recovery in the JPY, especially with stretched short positioning. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE DOVISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US CPI, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture looks bleak for the JPY right now, and as long as US10Y gain ground and as long as the BoJ stays unnecessarily dovish and as long as the BoJ and MoF does nothing to address JPY weakness, the bias remains lower. However, given stretched tactical and CFTC positioning, and given growth concerns in the US, we don’t want to chase the JPY lower from here.
by thunderpips