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Gbp-jpy

GBPJPY a move to the 0.618 🦐GBPJPY on the 4h chart reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level over a daily support providing us another great profit opportunity since our last call on this pair. The price is now testing the support area and some retracement can to the 0.382 can happen in the next trading hours but, we can expect anyway some more retracement to the downside in the midterm. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the potential break of the 0.5 Fibonacci level and in that case i will wait for the Plancton's strategy rules to be applied and set a nice short order. ---- Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
GBP JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In March the BoE hiked rates by 25bsp as expected but delivered a bearish hike with BoE’s Cunliffe dissenting by voting to leave rates unchanged. This was a stark change from February where 4 members voted for a 50bsp hike. Cunliffe noted the negative impacts of higher commodity prices on real household incomes and economic activity as the main reason for his dissention, while remaining members thought a 25bsp hike was appropriate given the tight labour market and risks of second round effects. Even though inflation forecasts were upgraded to 8% in Q2 (previous 7.25%), the negative view that GDP was expected to slow to subdued rates showed growing concern of stagflation. The most bearish element of the statement was a change in language regarding incoming rates where the bank said they judge that some further modest tightening MIGHT be appropriate where previous guidance said more tightening was ‘LIKELY TO BE’ appropriate (a clear push against overly aggressive rate expectations). They further pushed back by noting the current implied rate path would see inflation would be below target in 3 years’ time, in other words saying they won’t hike as much, and confirms our estimates that policy reached peak hawkishness in February. The 100% odds of a 25bsp in May drifted to just above 80% on Friday, and markets will pay close attention to incoming BoE speak, where further push back against rates could be enough to see markets pricing out some of the >5 hikes still priced for 2022. As a result of the clear dovish tilt, we have adjusted our assessment of the bank’s policy stance to NEUTRAL. 2. Economic & Health Developments With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces stagflation risk, as price pressures stay sticky while growth decelerates. That also means that current market expectations for rates continues to look too aggressive even after the BoE’s recent push back. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. 3. Political Developments Political uncertainty is usually GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows question remains on whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. 4. CFTC Analysis CFTC data a mostly bearish signal last week as Large Specs increased shorts and Leveraged Funds decreased longs (both by a big amount). Our preference remains to look for GBP shorts against the EUR in the med-term , and after the push lower in EURGBP post the previous ECB meeting the coast looks clearer than a week ago. 5. The Week Ahead Despite hawkish comments from BoE’s Mann last week (which tried to place more emphasis on the inflation side of the economy), the dismal Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales and S&P Global Flash PMI’s brought the slowing growth concerns right back into focus (and rightly so). The timing of these prints was fairly bad for the GBP as this week has a very light calendar schedule, which means there won’t be any major growth data points that could ease some of Friday’s concerns. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy No surprises from the BoJ at their March meeting. As usual, the BoJ continued their three decade long easy policy with Governor Kuroda dismissing any chances of starting to debate an exit from the current policy stance. The language and tone were very similar to their prior meeting where the bank remained committed to provide any additional easing if necessary and noted that the current geopolitical situation increases the risks and uncertainty for Japan’s economy. The bank did note that they expect inflation to rise to close to 2% in Q2 as a result of the recent upside in oil prices, but the governor did explain that recent fears of stagflation in places like Japan, EU and US are overdone. Furthermore, Governor Kuroda explained that rates in Japan will remain low and the rate differential between Japan and other major economies are expected to lead to a weaker currency and higher domestic price pressures in the months ahead. 2. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is usually the primary driver. Economic data rarely proves market moving, and although monetary policy expectations can affect the JPY in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically more dominant. Even though the market’s overall risk tone saw a huge recovery and risk-on frenzy from the middle of 2020 to the end of 2021, recent developments have increased risks. With central banks tightening policy into an economic slowdown, risk appetite is jittery. Even though that doesn’t change our med-term bias for the JPY, it does means we should expect more risk sentiment ebbs and flows this year, and the heightened volatility can create strong directional moves in the JPY, as long as yields play their part. 3. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares a strong inverse correlation to moves in US yield differentials. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y isn’t perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the market environment from both a risk and cycle point of view. With the Fed tilting more aggressive, we think that opens up more room for curve flattening to take place. In this environment there could be mild upside risks for the JPY if US10Y corrects, but we shouldn’t look at the yield correlation in isolation and also weigh it alongside risk sentiment and price action in other safe havens. 4. CFTC Analysis Bearish bets continued to ease up a bit with recent positioning data. However, positioning is still very stretched with aggregate JPY positioning close to 2 standard deviations away from a 15-year mean. Even though the medterm outlook remain bearish, the risk to reward to chase the currency lower from here is not very attractive. 5. The Week Ahead This week will be all about the BoJ and possible intervention comments from Japanese officials. For the BoJ, the question markets have is whether the recent weakness of the JPY has been enough to spark some potential reaction from the BoJ, either in the form of verbal intervention (talking down the weakness and/or threatening FX intervention – this past seems unlikely given that the finance minister looks to be heading that part of the equation). So, the only other thing the bank can realistically do to ease off some of the pressure by increasing the target band of the JP10Y from -0.25%-0.25% to -0.50%-0.50%. This would not only ease some of the continued pressure from the markets around the YCC, and it should also provide some short-term relief for the JPY weakness. Then there is also possible jawboning, where Finance Minister Suzuki and US Treasury Sec Yellen talked about the possibility of joint FX intervention where the US showed willingness in the proposal (something they are usually less keen on entertaining).
by thunderpips
4
GBPJPY can look for the 0.5 Fib 🦐GBPJPY after our previous calls reached the 168 level providing us an almost 4% run since our first call. The price after such a string impulse reached the supply zone and might look for some retracement. How can i approach this scenario? Currently, the market is trading above a support area and if the price will break below i will check for a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ---- Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
7
GBPJPY looking up 🦐 -UPDATE-GBPJPY after our previous analysis broke the confluence area and carry on the bull run to the upside. The price has now reached a minor resistance and retested the 0.5 Fibonacci level. How can we approach this scenario? We will wait for a break of the structure and in that case, we will consider a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ---- Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
6
GBPJPY UP 140 Pips Since Last Post!In our last post for the GBPJPY, price was moving up towards the resistance level at 164.65 from the high of March 28th. It took just two trading days from that post for price to make contact with this level, but price appears to have slowed down. This tends to happen around support & resistance levels, and in this case, it is just a display of the buyers losing momentum. The buyers may be resting before the next move up. We could even experience a pullback before that happens, but the current trend is bullish, so as long we continue to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, then the bullish move should continue. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
GBPJPY Trade OpportunityAn opportunity in the sell direction just presented itself on the GBPJPY chart: A fakeout is seen just above the 164.630 Weekly Horizontal Resistance Level occasioned by the Bearish Harami Candlestick Pattern. With Stop Loss at 164.998 (about 44.8 PIPS) and Profit Target at 162.640 (about 191.0 PIPS), you could be looking at a Reward-to-Risk Ratio of 4.26. As always, there are no guarantees! This is not trading advice; ensure you understand that your losses can exceed your deposits (This may not be suitable for everyone) and apply appropriate Risk Management. Please confirm that this correlates with your trading style and analysis before you make a trading decision. Have fun trading! Sincerely, Your FX Plug
Short
by charles-okoukoni