Buying GBPNZD at current low.GBPNZD - 20h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.9050 (stop at 1.8890)
Previous support located at 1.9100.
Previous resistance located at 1.9250.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.9250 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.9420 and 1.9450
Resistance: 1.9250 / 1.9400 / 1.9450
Support: 1.9100 / 1.9050 / 1.9000
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Gbp-nzd
GBPNZD to see a fakeout?GBPNZD - 21h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.9050 (stop at 1.8890)
Previous support located at 1.9050.
Previous resistance located at 1.9300.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.9230 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.9420 and 1.9450
Resistance: 1.9300 / 1.9400 / 1.9450
Support: 1.9050 / 1.9000 / 1.8900
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Selling GBPNZD into current swing high.GBPNZD - 20h expiry - We look to Sell at 1.9279 (stop at 1.9361)
Our short term bias remains negative.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement is located at 1.9275 from 28/11/2022 to 01/12/2022.
Bespoke resistance is located at 1.9282. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 1.9095 and 1.9000
Resistance: 1.9250 / 1.9275 / 1.9282
Support: 1.9165 / 1.9094 / 1.9000
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
GBP/NZD Declines Ahead📉📉GBP/NZD Declines Ahead
📉GBP/NZD Finally started a decisive move southwards.
📉It coincides perfectly with my previous analysis in which I wrote about the declines in the Pound and the upcoming rises in the New Zealand Dollar
📉 Ahead is a strong support zone defined by a cluster of two fibo levels. The first is the 1.618 level of the entire recent upward correction. The second level is the 0.618 level of the entire upward wave from the bottom on 16.09.2022 to the peak on 17.10.2022
📉 If the downward movement continues expect the price to fall to around this support zone.
📉 Technical analysis indicators also confirm my perspective. Looking at the MACD histogram which indicates the continuation of the downward trend and the RSI which is well below the 50 level
📉The resistance zone has been set around the 0.618 level of the entire upward correction
📉 The scenario I'm playing out is a continuation of the declines to the vicinity of the support zone levels. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully.
📉*Please do not suggest the path I have outlined with lines it is only a hypothetical scenario.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Buying GBPNZD at current lows.GBPNZD - 21h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.9100 (stop at 1.9020)
Previous support located at 1.9100.
Previous resistance located at 1.9300.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.9300 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.9298 and 1.9348
Resistance: 1.9300 / 1.9400 / 1.9500
Support: 1.9100 / 1.9000 / 1.8950
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Fading into GBPNZD breakdown.GBPNZD - 23h expiry - We look to Sell a break of 1.9128 (stop at 1.9245)
Selling pressure dominated price action yesterday and we expect this to continue today.
Previous support located at 1.9128.
Short term bias is bearish.
Further downside is expected, however, due to the strong support below we prefer to sell a break of 1.9128, which will confirm the bearish sentiment.
Our profit targets will be 1.8830 and 1.8705
Resistance: 1.9305 / 1.9675 / 2.0105
Support: 1.9075 / 1.8890 / 1.8705
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Range play on GBPNZDTrade Idea: Buying GBPNZD
Reasoning: Trading in a range on the 60min chart
Entry Level: 1.9226
Take Profit Level: 1.9452
Stop Loss: 1.9180
Risk/Reward: 4.95:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Buying GBPNZD at previous swing low.GBPNZD - 21h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.9150 (stop at 1.8990)
Previous support located at 1.9200.
Previous resistance located at 1.9400.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.9400 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.9520 and 1.9550
Resistance: 1.9400 / 1.9500 / 1.9550
Support: 1.9200 / 1.9150 / 1.9000
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
GBPNZD Potential Buying Opportunity!Hello Traders,
In this week's trading session we will be monitoring GBPNZD for a Buying opportunity in and around 1.915 OB zone. Once we get a bearish confirmation the trade will be executed and shared with our premium subscribers!
- RISK DISCLOSURE
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Buying GBPNZD at low.GBPNZD - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.9150 (stop at 1.8990)
Previous support located at 1.9250. Previous resistance located at 1.9400. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 1.9400 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.9520 and 1.9550
Resistance: 1.9400 / 1.9500 / 1.9550
Support: 1.9250 / 1.9150 / 1.9000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GBPNZD Strong buy opportunity.The GBPNZD pair is moving exactly as predicted on our previous analysis on September 28:
The price hit and got rejected on the Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line) of the Triangle pattern that has been holding since April 02 2020. The pair pulled-back aggressively, but this remains much in line with the 2019 W-shaped fractal, which after its own 1D Golden Cross (when the 1D MA50 (blue) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange)), it made a new High above the Symmetrical Resistance.
This time, since the uptrend is limited to the Lower Highs trend-line, we will again buy and target this.
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Buying GBPNZD at market overnight.GBPNZD - 19h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.9800 (stop at 1.9640)
Previous support located at 1.9900.
Previous resistance located at 2.0000.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the daily chart.
Risk/Reward is ideal to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 2.0000 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 2.0170 and 2.0200
Resistance: 2.0000 / 2.0170 / 2.0200
Support: 1.9900 / 1.9800 / 1.9700
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Buying GBPNZD at support.GBPNZD - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.9230 (stop at 1.9070)
Previous support located at 1.9300.
Previous resistance located at 1.9400.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.9400 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.9600 and 1.9700
Resistance: 1.9400 / 1.9600 / 1.9700
Support: 1.9300 / 1.9230 / 1.9100
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Buying GBPNZD lows.GBPNZD - 21h expiry - We look to Buy at 1.9700 (stop at 1.9540)
Previous support located at 1.9800.
Previous resistance located at 2.0000.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 2.0000 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 2.0070 and 2.0100
Resistance: 2.0000 / 2.0070 / 2.0100
Support: 1.9800 / 1.9700 / 1.9600
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
💱GBP/NZD Time to shine MULTI-INTERVAL ANALYSIS💱💱 In the current comprehensive analysis, I would like to draw your attention to the GBP/NZD pair which has caught my attention in recent days.
💱 In the posted post, we can observe eight charts showing the time range from 8 months to 22 minutes (it has been divided from 8 months into four i.e. each subsequent chart-timeframe is four times smaller.
💱 Looking strikte at the price action and the appearance of the candles, it is impossible to deny that since 2016 we have been in accumulation on this pair and the last days have given us many reasons to think that this period may soon end.
💱 Well, in recent weeks we have seen a massive injection of money that flows into the pound and outflows from the New Zealand dollar.
💱 I am very curious to see if the recent breakout that has been taking place since September 26 could be the beginning of a long-term upward wave.
💱 It is worth keeping an eye on this pair.
💱 If you liked the analysis leave a like and drop by the profile for more interesting posts :D
GBP NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH
BASELINE
A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was a volatile week for Cable with punchy swings both higher and lower. Between US CPI , bad communication from the BoE and sacking of the Chancellor Sterling struggled for direction. In the week ahead, focus will be on CPI , but after the BoE’s bond intervention program ended on Friday markets will also turn attention to the new Chancellor to see whether he can restore some confidence, or whether he’ll add fuel to the fiscal flames.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If the new Chancellor can restore confidence and push back more mini-budget elements it could provide upside for GBP.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. If the new Chancellor can’t restore confidence and won’t push back on the fiscal plan it could add pressure on Sterling.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). As usual there will be a lot of focus on Wednesday’s CPI data, where we still expect a counter-cyclical reaction from Sterling (meaning very high CPI being negative for Sterling while very low CPI prints is expected to be supportive). However, the market’s attention will be firmly fixed on the new Chancellor to see whether he can restore some confidence.
NZD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
BASELINE
The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing some who were expecting some caution regarding the longevity of the bank’s current hiking cycle. This was initially supportive for the NZD, but as we’ve seen time and time again the NZD was not able to trade convincingly in line with what its fundamentals suggest. As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, and that means US Q3 earnings season is one to be kept on the radar this incoming week. Any surprise positive or negative announcements from the National Congress of the CCP will be important to watch as well.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the NZD.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the NZD.
BIGGER PICTURE
The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the currency’s inability to trade in line with any clear fundamental drivers, we’re opting to stay patient with the NZD until further notice.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Buying a pullback on GBPNZDTrade Idea: Buying GBPNZD
Reasoning: Intraday pullback to support
Entry Level: 1.9936
Take Profit Level: 2.0266
Stop Loss: 1.9849
Risk/Reward: 4.26:1
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Buying GBPNZD at previous resistance.GBPNZD - 21h expiry - We look to Buy at 2.0000 (stop at 1.9840)
Previous support located at 2.0100.
Previous resistance located at 2.0250.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 2.0000, resulting in improved risk/reward.
A move through 2.0250 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 2.0370 and 2.0500
Resistance: 2.0250 / 2.0370 / 2.0500
Support: 2.0100 / 2.0000 / 1.9900
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