GBPUSD H4 Bullish ChannelGBP/USD H4 Bullish Channel: Opportunities for Both Long and Short
The GBP/USD pair on the H4 chart currently exhibits a bullish channel pattern, offering potential short-term buy and sell opportunities depending on price action. Here's a breakdown:
Buy Opportunity:
1. A potential buy entry could be considered near the current price as it hovers closer to the channel support. This allows for some buffer before a potential bounce upwards.
2. Targets for the bull case would be the upper resistance line or potentially even higher depending on momentum and confirmation from other technical indicators.
Shifting to Short:
1. A break below the lower support line of the channel would signal a breakdown of the bullish trend, opening up potential sell opportunities.
2. Entry points for shorting could be considered just below the broken support or on a retest of the broken line.
3. Targets for the bear case would be the previous swing lows within the channel or deeper depending on bearish momentum and confirmation from other technical indicators.
Central Bank Decisions:
Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (Jan 31): This is the biggest event. A hawkish Fed with a large rate hike (75bps+) and strong economic projections could significantly strengthen the USD against the GBP. Conversely, dovish hints or smaller increases could favor the GBP.
Bank of England (BoE) Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (Feb 2): While the BoE is expected to raise rates again, the focus will be on the size (25bps or 50bps) and future policy guidance. Dovish pronouncements could weaken the GBP, while hawkish inclinations might offer some support.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 2): A robust US jobs report might reinforce hawkish Fed expectations and weigh on GBP/USD. Conversely, weaker data could dampen USD strength and lend some support to the pound.
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Choppy Consolidation thus far...GU is consolidating and staying within a range so I am now monitoring for a breakout from this range to possibly take out highs for the end of the month. It is the last day of the month before we hop into a new month with all the news pending I'm sure some opportunities are ahead.
Deciphering US Core PCE: A Blueprint for GBPUSD TradersIn today's trading session, GBPUSD enthusiasts are poised for a buying opportunity around the 1.26800 zone, leveraging the pair's uptrend amidst a correction phase. However, amidst the technical considerations, a deeper dive into the fundamental landscape reveals the looming influence of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index m/m.
The significance of this economic indicator lies in its role as a measure of inflation and its consequential impact on USD strength and weakness. Delving into the historical trends of US Core PCE data unveils a nuanced narrative. Examining previous releases, such as December's reading of 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2%, juxtaposed with November's 0.2%, and October's 0.3%, provides insight into the evolving inflationary landscape.
This detailed analysis illuminates a trend of fluctuating PCE readings, painting a picture of economic uncertainty and potential volatility in the USD. As traders brace for tomorrow's announcement, expectations lean towards a potential soft print, further solidifying the case for potential USD weakness.
Against this backdrop, GBPUSD traders find themselves at a crucial juncture, weighing the technical support and resistance levels against the backdrop of evolving fundamental dynamics. The confluence of technical and fundamental factors underscores the importance of a holistic trading approach, blending technical precision with a nuanced understanding of market fundamentals.
As the trading session unfolds, traders are advised to remain vigilant, navigating the intricacies of GBPUSD's trajectory amidst the unfolding economic landscape.
Trade safe,
Joe.
HelenP. I British Pound will continue grow to resistance levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you British Pound analytics. A few moments ago price rebounded from the support level, which coincided with the support zone and rose to 1.2735 points, but then it turned around and made impulse down to 1.2500 points, thereby breaking the 1.2600 level. After this, the price in short time rose back to this level and also broke it, after which GBP made an impulse up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. Then price bounced from this level and started to trades inside consolidation, where the price declined to the support level, after which turned around and made impulse up to the resistance zone, and even higher. But soon GBP fell back, making a fake breakout, and later rose again to a resistance level. After this movement, GBP rebounded down from the 1.2775 level to the support level and soon bounced back, but a not long time ago British Pound rebounded from the resistance level again and it trades below. For my mind, GBP will make a small movement down one more time and then continue to grow to the 1.2775 resistance level, which coincides with the top part of the consolidation. For this case, I set my target at this level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
GBPUSD Tight consolidation. Prepare to trade the break-out.The GBPUSD pair has been trading sideways within the very tight range formed by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of an emerging Channel Down pattern. In fact while the 1D MA50 has been holding since January 17, the Lower Highs have since December 28, already with 3 clear rejections on them.
This technical squeeze will naturally break in the coming days and technically the way it first breaks to, that will be the dominant trend for the next 4-6 weeks. If it closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, before the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, we will sell and target the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up at 1.2250. If it closes above Resistance 1 (1.2825) while forming a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we will buy and target the next Resistance at 1.3150.
The reason we use the 1D MACD as a parameter is that every full Bullish Cross it made below the 0.00 barrier, was the start of very aggressive rallies. The times that failed to complete it (e.g. August 22 2023), it extended an already strong downtrend.
Notice also the relevance of the 1D Golden and Death Crosses. The last 1D Death Cross (October 17 2023) formed a market bottom and started a rise, while the 1D Golden Cross before it (January 11 2023), led to a market top and declined, both of which are the opposite of their technical expectations. Currently we are after a 1D Golden Cross (January 05 2024), so if the previous inverse correlation applies again, it should favor a bearish trend.
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Freaky Friday! Going into Monthly TransitionSo we have come to the end of the week and the news from NY session yesterday kept price from moving bullish with the structure. Ultimately price is bearish but they need to go break the highs first before flipping to bearish. Maybe that break can happen some time between now and Monday. The end of the Month is next week so I'm sure something crazy could end up happening today.
The last push before the collapse So if you been following my post I been bearish on GU pretty much all month looking for entries on a bear move. Price broke structure with GBP news today and started pushing up. Looks like they are looking to take out Highs first before going full on Bearish. So waiting for news tomorrow to see if it wants to finally confirm it wants to go bearish. So for now I'm Temporarily Bullish.
GBPUSD: On the bearish threshold. Be ready to short it.GBPUSD is being rejected repeatedly at the top of the multimonth Channel Down but the 1D MA50 is still supporting it. However the squeeze has gotten to narrow and being on a neutral 1D technical setting (RSI = 50.057, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 25.323), we expect a bearish breakout soon below it. The similarities of the 1D RSI with last August, show that there is significant downside potential. We will short if we do get a 1D candle close under the 1D MA50 and target the S2 level (TP = 1.2230).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GBPUSD: BoS, weak GBP, strengthening USDI'm expecting a big collapse from this pair over the next few weeks.
I'm seeing a Break of Structure on the lower timeframes, with 1hr retest.
GBP data shocking and certainly indicating recession, USD not looking like a recession. Heightening global conflict could also lead to a stronger USD.
I'm going short on this pair, first target 1.255.
GBPUSD - Top-Down Analysis 📹 From Daily To H1Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for #GBPUSD.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GBPUSD Top Down Analysis January 23, 2024Top-down Analysis.
In this video, we take a close look at the GBPUSD to find out where it is going. Using a top-down analysis, we have examined all possible directions of price movement in the short term and long term, respectively.
We are expecting to catch a down move that will give us a potential of 147 pips in profit if it goes our way.
GBPUSD | Jan 19Looks like the pair has found solid demand zone around 1.26770 and short term long opportunities may be found. Would love to see the close before entering anything as it will also give us a closure on the weekly, which would drive the public interest. Personally got stopped out on the pullback with a 1:1 trade. Stay safe!